Let's do Math!
Digging into the Math behind the Trade Simulator I am generally a non-believer whenever I read anything, for the most part. This is my way of saying that I’m really skeptical. I’m mostly this way after taking a couple of college courses, A logic philosophy class and a statistics…
Digging into the Math behind the Trade Simulator
I am generally a non-believer whenever I read anything, for the most part. This is my way of saying that I’m really skeptical. I’m mostly this way after taking a couple of college courses, A logic philosophy class and a statistics math class. My first statistics class had an assigned reading book called “How to Lie With Statistics” by Darrell Huff, which really opened my eyes to statistics and made the subject a passion of mine.
These two classes also really opened my eyes to how misleading written information can be.
Whenever I see proposed trades that were run through the “Trade Simulator,” I thought how lopsided these “Fair” trades were, in my opinion. Now, with the talk of Juan Soto and how ridiculous 176.8 trade value sounds, I wanted to learn about the calculation used to come up with this nonsensical number that no team is going to come close to in the real world.
Check out this page to see their explanation of how they calculate trade values.
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-major-leaguers/
Here are the key points…
- The main equation is “Field Value – Salary = Surplus”, which is the trade value of the player.
- Salary – For Arbitration players they calculate future salary as follows: Arb1 = 25% of Market Value, Arb2 = 40%, Arb 3 = 60%
- The value of WAR as of 2019, according to the site, is “A little above $9M”.
- The site also uses its own projection system (I guess they’re better than ZiPS, Steamer or Fangraphs).
- The inflation rate of 3%
- Years of control
- Injury Risk – self-explanatory
- Roster Risk – A negative adjustment to the field value
So after you take all of these things into account, you get Field Value, which is basically the WAR the player is expected to produce times the years of control remaining for the player, times the value of WAR (“$9M and then a little more” according to that link, but it must have been too much trouble to list the actual number). Then you subtract the salary their supposed to earn in order to get the actual value that’s tied to the player in the trade value system. In simpler terms, WAR X $ value per WAR X years of control = Field Value.
Now, let’s try to reverse engineer Juan Soto’s trade value of 176.8 to see how they got to this number.
I’m using ZiPS because they’re usually on the high side of estimating future WAR, and also because they were the only ones I could easily find that provided three years of WAR projections which works nicely for Juan Soto’s remaining 2.36 years of control after the trade.
ZiPS has a three-year projection of…
2022 7.7
2023 7.9
2024 7.7
Now, we can do some simple math to get to the first part of the equation…
The Dodgers have played in 90 games so far and have 13 more games to play through deadline day on August 2nd. Assuming Soto gets traded to the Dodgers on deadline day, the Dodgers will have played 103 games, or 64% of the season, which means 36% of the season remains. As a result, the remaining projected WAR is .36 x 7.7 = 2.77. Next, we’ll add all of the WAR together and get 2.77 + 7.9 + 7.7 = 18.37. Now we multiply that by $9M to get a field value that equals 165.33. The Field Value based on ZiPS and those very lofty WAR numbers is quite a bit lower than the Surplus or “Trade Value” of 176.8, so this is already looking entirely out of whack since we haven’t even subtracted the salary he’ll earn yet.
Okay, we can already see their field value is off quite a bit. I didn’t factor in inflation like they said they do, roster risk, or any other of the special sauce they use in their calculations. But, I did give Soto the benefit of the doubt on WAR projections. Let’s look at his past WAR from Fangraphs with games played in parentheses and compare them with the WAR Golden Boy, Mike Trout’s seasons at the same age…
Juan Soto
2018 3.7 (116) age 19
2019 5.7 (150) age 20
2020 2.5 (47) age 21
2021 7.0 (151) age 22
2022 2.6 (91) age 23 WAR project through the rest of the season is 2.6 * 1.36 = 3.54
Mike Trout
2011 .7 (40) age 19
2012 10.1 (139) age 20
2013 10.2 (157) age 21
2014 8.3 (157) age 22
2015 9.3 (159) age 23
Now let’s look at the remainder of Trout’s WAR years to see how he fared…
2016 8.5
2017 6.4
2018 9.5
2019 8.3
2020 2.6
2021 2.2
2022 3.8
Let’s look at some averages
In their first five seasons, Trout averaged 7.72 WAR, and Soto averaged just 4.49. Trout averaged 7.06 WAR over the next five seasons.
Okay, what did we learn from this exercise so far?
Soto is nowhere near the WAR player that Trout is. 7.72 WAR vs 4.3 WAR in their same age seasons.
Trout peaked at 10+ WAR twice in his age 20 and 21 seasons and never again came within .5 WAR of his peak performances, so there’s no reason to expect Soto to do better when Juan hasn’t yet eclipsed 7.0 WAR.
Now, the Earnings…
Soto is currently in his 2nd year of arbitration because he was a “Super Two”, and has two additional arbitration years coming up. He’s currently earning $17.1 M. The 2nd arbitration year is supposed be 60% of the open market value, so he should be making $17.1 x 1.40 = 23.94. That seems a little low. Let’s do this another way. In 2021, he put up 7.0 WAR at $9M per WAR = $63M. Shit, that looks really freaking high!
Let’s see here. Max Scherzer got a big fat contract last year and is the highest paid player in baseball annually at $43.3M AAV, coming off a 5.4 WAR season at age 37. Okay, that’s a good point of reference. 43.3M / 5.4 WAR = $8M per WAR.
Let’s say we have an accurate WAR value to attach to Soto. Going back to the projected 18.37 WAR remaining on his controllable years at $8.5M (I’m adding inflation to the AAV that Max got) and we get a 156.14 Field Value! Wow, that “Trade Value” of 176.8 is really looking like **BS** now. The same site lists his salary for the remainder of these next 2.36 years at 71.2M. Now, I’m just shaking my head because his surplus value would be 156.14 – 71.2 = 84.94. That’s a really long ways out from 176.8!
How the F did they come up with that Field Value of 248?!?! Let’s do some more math. We all know inflation is really freaking high right now, so let’s pretend that 1 WAR is worth 10M. It’s also a nice round number to math with. 248 Field Value divided by 10 means that Soto would have to put up around 25 WAR over the next 2.36 years or a whopping 10.59 WAR, something he’s never come close to and something that Mr. Trout never did. Not to mention, NO ONE IS GOING TO PAY $50M AAV for any player, much less the $95M+ AAV for a 10.59 WAR player at $9M per WAR.
What is Soto Really Worth?
Max Scherzer got $8M per WAR, and he’s the highest AAV-paid player in the game. Soto put up 7.0 WAR in his best season and 5.7 in his next best season. If we average his two best seasons together (12.7 / 2), he’s worth 6.35 WAR x 2.36 years of control at $8M per WAR = $120M minus the remaining salary of his controllable years, $6.15M this year, and the arbitration raises from 17.1M this year over the next two years. Let’s say those arbitration raises come out to be 20M next year and 25M the next. 120 – 6.15 – 20 – 25 = 68.55 is the real trade value of Juan Soto. If you want to add $1M to the WAR value to account for inflation, he’s worth around $15M more, or 83.55, so he probably falls somewhere in between.
This is why I don’t pay attention to what the Trade Simulator says. Now, go ahead and make some more Soto proposals now that you know what he’s really worth.
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Discussion (82)
Disagree, not disagreeable
5 out of 4 people struggle with math.
That’s my two cents.
I look at the trade simulator from time-to-time, but I look at a lot of things. Some people like it… others? Not so much. It has been around for several years, and I am sure it is evolving. Thanks for the deep dive.
Well, Mitch White answered the bell, but Bickford, Vesia, and Phillips laid an egg. I think Bickford just punched his ticket to OKC!
Tonight Dustin May is the scheduled starter for AAA Oklahoma City. It will be his second rehab start.
Andrew Heaney gets closer to returning to Dodgers with a 5-inning rehab start in Peoria on Thursday.
Heaney struck out eight against the ACL Mariners in Peoria, allowing a pair of solo home runs in his five innings, and worked around three other singles.
That came after allowing four runs in 2⅔ innings last Saturday in Low-A Rancho Cucamonga, matching the total runs he allowed in his previous six starts, both in the majors and on his first minor league rehab assignment.
Manager Dave Roberts told reporters at Dodger Stadium before Thursday’s Dodgers-Giants game that Heaney could be back with the Dodgers very soon.
So much for going to bed up 5-0! Thanks for the analysis Mark. I didn’t understand any of it and now I have a headache. And not sure if Soto is even a good player now! The wonders of age. Seriously tho great info. It will be interesting what the Nats get especially if they’re tying Corbin into the deal
Enough of the Soto talk, he ain’t going to be a Dodger-not gonna happen, AF doesn’t make that kind of move….. or does he?
Last night we saw our weakness on full display and it will be aided by the return(s) of Treinen, May, Kahnle, Duffy, Heaney, Graterol etc. The BP is our only weakness and if I never see Bickford in a MLB game again it might be a good thing.
Mitch White doesn’t have a put away pitch and is a #5 starter. Good guy to have around but don’t expect greatness. A pitching staff needs guys like that, but I don’t want to see him pitch in a pressure-packed post season game with our chances to advance on the line.
Max oh Max. 0-4 w/ 2 K’s and 3 LOB. BA is .156, SLG is .310 and OPS is .622. He needs to get his act together and do it quickly. With no improvement, I don’t see the Dodgers paying him $13 million next year, instead choosing to buy him out for $ 1.5 million.
B&P just realized it was you. So sorry. Great write up!
Good article atSBNation by Samantha Carleton about Dodgers Analytics and pitching. That would be a great article for you B&P. How many front office and analytics people are there in AF’s fiefdom? And what do they all do?
Dodgers v Giants is always an adventure.
They put a graphic up on the screen, right before the bullpen meltdown in the 7th showing the Dodger’s perfect record when up by 5. Still intact, thanks to Mookie!
Mookie’s big fly and diving catch were keys to the game. The less noticed keys of the game were the shift hits that made those big innings possible. I hate shifts!
Doc had some questionable moves…
Taking out White after 82 pitches and a single hit.
Bringing in Vesia to face a couple of lefties, he didn’t face any.
Jake Lamb to pinch hit for JT, who’s been on fire.
Belli was 0-3, but he got a key walk, scored a run and made a great catch coming in on a ball.
Muncy was useless.
Lux is awesome!
Betts looked lost until that big fly and great catch.
Freddie and Trea doing their thing.
Hanser and Trayce had big games.
Rodon doesn’t like pitching against the Dodgers.
Ferguson looks more like a back-end guy than a guy you bring in with a 5 run lead.
The Trade Simulator is junk.
Didn’t someone say earlier this week that Miguel Vargas stayed with the Dodgers thru the break? I assume he’s back with OKC now for tonight’s game?
If JT does have some stomach cramp/strain issue, DL him now and don’t let that injury get worse. It might be a great time to see what Vargas can do, and with the team playing well there won’t be too much pressure on him.
That 176 number looked really wrong to me, and I was doing some calculating in my head. You laid it out methodically. Nice write up.
I think the MWhite removal was on point. I recalled one of his first starts, he was pitching great in the fifth, got 2 outs and then he imploded and gave a couple of base runners and a HR after.
The Trout comparison is quite illuminating. In previous years, Soto has not match Trout in WAR. Yet he is looking for a Trout like contract. Time will tell whether turning down 440 million was a smart idea.
Wow, what a fun and crazy game last night. The BP had a rough night except for Ferguson. I’ve been a Bickford fan in the past, but his FB has little or no movement. It appears that the batters are sitting on his FB and teeing off. Looks like a return to OKC for him with Heaney’s return? Phillips looked like the pre 2022 version. Kimbrell came in and did a nice job (thanks to Mookie). norcaldodgerfan, the BP is a weakness? The BP has had weeks of overcoming several injuries and having nice success. One bad game and it’s now a weakness? Got it. Truly a team win. A clutch walk by Bellinger against a tough lefty that allowed Mookie to do his thing. More huge hits from Thompson.
I agree with Mark and the opinion that a trade is not necessary in the next couple of weeks. The Soto talk is fun, but I don’t think the Dodgers would want to spend that kind of money on another OF. After reading B&P detailed analysis of WAR value vs Trout further convinces me that it wouldn’t be a wise move. Finally, to give up the prospects that are being thrown around and no guarantees of resigning him long term, no thanks. They walked that fine line with Mookie. Look at the team we have now. Offense, defense, and pitching. It’s all good!
It’s Vargas time!
I really hate doing trade proposals, but I would love to add Soto to LF if I could. It would be a sweet three-year run and a real dynasty with a couple more ‘ships before he hits free agency. AF is talking to the Nats and I’m all for whatever deal he comes up with. I have high hopes for Bobby Miller being the next ace and Cartaya being the next impact bat, but AF has a much better idea of the future value of these players than I do. He’s got a great analytics team, scouting department and development staff. So, he has the most, best, but still imperfect information you can have to make such a decision. Plus the sales skills to pull it off.
Only trade we should consider at deadline is Castillo. Keep Lux only at 2B and batting 9th. Ride Trayce as long as possible. CT back to super utility upon his return. MM needs to sit, IL or OKC and give his ABs to Lamb. Give Hansel more reps until JT is healthy. We can survive with Belli in CF and batting at the bottom of order. Wait for IL mafia to back fill BP and a few other unforeseen tweaks and we should own October/November despite Doc’s sure to come blunders. Save the cash and prospects and give TT a deal he can’t refuse instead of pursuing Soto. Don’t need that contract or another Boras client.
How about Whit Merrifield and Bienetendi from KC. Anyone interested?
Just a really, really good team.
Kinda makes it easy to be a fan.
Still have hopes that if the team can put enough room between them and the competition, then Muncy can take time to get his shit together and Vargas would get his seemingly overdue look.
In the meantime, we can hope.
Also in the meantime, because somebody asked about Merrifeld and Benitiendi.
Royals Get:
Bellinger 1.4
Bickford 8.2
Bruns 6.9
Dodgers get:
Benintendi 8.1
Alex Marsh 6.6
Merrifield 2.7
I’d have no interest in that deal, but the #s work.
There’s a small store about one block or less that closes at 10 pm and I needed a couple things and Dodgers had a lead that should of held far better than it did for the 15 at most minutes I was gone. I came into my Apt. and the next pitch was a grand salami tying the game. These Dodgers are the Dodgers that we thought they were before the start of the season. And it likely gets better from here. Great news from Bear letting us know TT feels good here in LA. I really like the energy Betts brings, the chemistry Dodgers have is a statement. It’s hard to think they’ll win less than 114 games.
This latest victory is one to savor. Last year, we were wondering how such a good team could lose so many close ones and OT games. But this season the Dodgers have made come-from-behind wins a habit–and this one came against against the arch-rival that needs to win such games to get back into playoff contention.
Lately I’ve been wondering whether Freddie or Trea will be considered the team MVP–and perhaps even league MVP.
But Mookie’s clutch HR and defense reminded us how he was the MVP early in the season, and could get back in that conversation.
I’m totally in agreement, focus on Trea, not Juan.
Thanks for explaining the data within the data, BP. So what did I get out of all this? Soto is not Mike Trout. My impression is Soto is a young player, who has a bright future, but Scott Boras wants to make him baseball’s first $500 million player. He will never live up to that expectation.
So, should the Dodgers pursue him? Probably not. Not only will you lose some talented prospects, but no doubt the Nationals will want to dump a contract (Patrick Corbin) in the package.
Soto’s value is real to a point. Much of what is out there right now is based on media hype and of course Boras controlling the narrative.
When it comes to pitching, Dodgers need some bullpen help. But trades for relief pitchers have always been more than a little sketchy as Friedman has noted.
I’m honestly not sure which direction the Dodgers will turn. But I believe they will do something at the deadline. Probably depends on opportunity and cost.
But there is no doubt that Friedman has checked in on Soto. Where that ends up is anyone’s guess.
There is probably a good possibility that Soto doesn’t get moved at the deadline.
The Dodgers do need another bat with Muncy just not getting it done. Then there is the mystery of Cody Bellinger. Maybe that means Vargas gets the call.
Good write-up, BP.
Really good, in-depth piece on Vargas in the Athletic today. Strange how low he is ranked in the top 100.
Open on theathletic.comhttps://theathletic.com/3441733/2022/07/22/miguel-vargas-dodgers/?source=user_shared_articleGood analysis BP. Probably put too much work into that. I don’t know anybody that takes those simulators seriously. The only benefit they have is in a sport like the NBA where the salary cap and salary rules make trades a mathematical challenge beyond a player evaluation challenge.
That said, the simulator is a lot closer than many hypothetical trades I’ve seen proposed here. The Nats are going to demand a boatload of prospect for Soto. I agree with your evaluation of Soto, from a WAR perspective. He is not worth what he will be demanding as a FA, IMHO. And since he has 2 1/2 years of team control before then, teams will overpay in trade offers. Something I know AF simply won’t do. Payers like Soto are more for teams than just production. GMs are under pressure from ownership to make big moves for big names. Marginal playoff teams will make dope fiend moves to increase their odds in the playoff THIS YEAR. And cripple their teams in future years. We aren’t one of those teams. And I’m glad we aren’t.
I think the Nats will ask for one or both of either Vargas or Cartaya. And they should be untouchable. I believe Vargas will have an impact this season. Maybe even this month. Cartaya could be a generational talent. Given all the players likely to come off the roster next season, the depth in the system is more important than ever. JT, Max and possibly Trea can’t be replaced by Soto. And if we trade the players who will likely take their place to get Soto… we will no longer be a team with depth in the system. And AF values that more than anything.
Since there are few options available at SS next season, I can see the Dodgers overpaying for Trea in a front loaded deal. We know what we have with him. If Vargas can hit MLB pitching, and I have no reason to believe he won’t, we have a potential star in LF. Maybe not a Soto. But we don’t need a Soto to be even better next year.
IMHO, this time next year Vargas will be in LF hitting .280 with power and a solid OBP. Post AS break 2023, I think Cartaya will be in the mix getting time behind the plate and DH.
We won’t get Soto. Nor do I think we need him.
Very enjoyable game and win with lots of emotions. I’m sure it was noted that it was the Dodger’s 28th come from behind victory of the season which is a good sign.
Some great news as well Mark.
Had a reply from Pete – he is banged up following his third back surgery and is making slow progress.
He gets his wife to print out Michael’s pieces and enjoys the memories they stir.
He promises that when he is a little better he will be back to posting regularly again.
You never know, if he has time on his hands he might write a nostalgic piece for us!
Anyway the good news is he’s alive and well and on the mend.
The games against the Giants are always close and very enjoyable.
Great piece again B – you’re getting good at this!!
Luis Castillo from the Reds is more important than Juan Soto of the Nationals if the Dodgers want to advance in October. By trading for him you would keep him away from the Yankees and Astros, the two most competitive opponents the Dodgers might face,. I actually think SP is a bigger need than people realize. No idea what May or Buehler will be able to contribute in October. Kershaw has been great but who knows if he can stay healthy. Gonsolin & Anderson both feel like they’re ready to come back to earth. Urias is the only one that we feel like we know exactly who he is right now.
Aaron Judge is a free agent at the end of this season and his numbers are better than Soto. He is 7 years older but wouldn’t be near as expensive at Soto. Why are we driveling over Soto and net even mentioning Judge? I think that if we are going to make a big splash we should consider signing AJ at the end of this year.
I hear Patrick Corbin’s name tied in with a Soto trade. Does anyone think he is fixable? Price looked like a possibility but never panned out.