Let's do Math!
Digging into the Math behind the Trade Simulator I am generally a non-believer whenever I read anything, for the most part. This is my way of saying that I’m really skeptical. I’m mostly this way after taking a couple of college courses, A logic philosophy class and a statistics…
Digging into the Math behind the Trade Simulator
I am generally a non-believer whenever I read anything, for the most part. This is my way of saying that I’m really skeptical. I’m mostly this way after taking a couple of college courses, A logic philosophy class and a statistics math class. My first statistics class had an assigned reading book called “How to Lie With Statistics” by Darrell Huff, which really opened my eyes to statistics and made the subject a passion of mine.
These two classes also really opened my eyes to how misleading written information can be.
Whenever I see proposed trades that were run through the “Trade Simulator,” I thought how lopsided these “Fair” trades were, in my opinion. Now, with the talk of Juan Soto and how ridiculous 176.8 trade value sounds, I wanted to learn about the calculation used to come up with this nonsensical number that no team is going to come close to in the real world.
Check out this page to see their explanation of how they calculate trade values.
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-major-leaguers/
Here are the key points…
- The main equation is “Field Value – Salary = Surplus”, which is the trade value of the player.
- Salary – For Arbitration players they calculate future salary as follows: Arb1 = 25% of Market Value, Arb2 = 40%, Arb 3 = 60%
- The value of WAR as of 2019, according to the site, is “A little above $9M”.
- The site also uses its own projection system (I guess they’re better than ZiPS, Steamer or Fangraphs).
- The inflation rate of 3%
- Years of control
- Injury Risk – self-explanatory
- Roster Risk – A negative adjustment to the field value
So after you take all of these things into account, you get Field Value, which is basically the WAR the player is expected to produce times the years of control remaining for the player, times the value of WAR (“$9M and then a little more” according to that link, but it must have been too much trouble to list the actual number). Then you subtract the salary their supposed to earn in order to get the actual value that’s tied to the player in the trade value system. In simpler terms, WAR X $ value per WAR X years of control = Field Value.
Now, let’s try to reverse engineer Juan Soto’s trade value of 176.8 to see how they got to this number.
I’m using ZiPS because they’re usually on the high side of estimating future WAR, and also because they were the only ones I could easily find that provided three years of WAR projections which works nicely for Juan Soto’s remaining 2.36 years of control after the trade.
ZiPS has a three-year projection of…
2022 7.7
2023 7.9
2024 7.7
Now, we can do some simple math to get to the first part of the equation…
The Dodgers have played in 90 games so far and have 13 more games to play through deadline day on August 2nd. Assuming Soto gets traded to the Dodgers on deadline day, the Dodgers will have played 103 games, or 64% of the season, which means 36% of the season remains. As a result, the remaining projected WAR is .36 x 7.7 = 2.77. Next, we’ll add all of the WAR together and get 2.77 + 7.9 + 7.7 = 18.37. Now we multiply that by $9M to get a field value that equals 165.33. The Field Value based on ZiPS and those very lofty WAR numbers is quite a bit lower than the Surplus or “Trade Value” of 176.8, so this is already looking entirely out of whack since we haven’t even subtracted the salary he’ll earn yet.
Okay, we can already see their field value is off quite a bit. I didn’t factor in inflation like they said they do, roster risk, or any other of the special sauce they use in their calculations. But, I did give Soto the benefit of the doubt on WAR projections. Let’s look at his past WAR from Fangraphs with games played in parentheses and compare them with the WAR Golden Boy, Mike Trout’s seasons at the same age…
Juan Soto
2018 3.7 (116) age 19
2019 5.7 (150) age 20
2020 2.5 (47) age 21
2021 7.0 (151) age 22
2022 2.6 (91) age 23 WAR project through the rest of the season is 2.6 * 1.36 = 3.54
Mike Trout
2011 .7 (40) age 19
2012 10.1 (139) age 20
2013 10.2 (157) age 21
2014 8.3 (157) age 22
2015 9.3 (159) age 23
Now let’s look at the remainder of Trout’s WAR years to see how he fared…
2016 8.5
2017 6.4
2018 9.5
2019 8.3
2020 2.6
2021 2.2
2022 3.8
Let’s look at some averages
In their first five seasons, Trout averaged 7.72 WAR, and Soto averaged just 4.49. Trout averaged 7.06 WAR over the next five seasons.
Okay, what did we learn from this exercise so far?
Soto is nowhere near the WAR player that Trout is. 7.72 WAR vs 4.3 WAR in their same age seasons.
Trout peaked at 10+ WAR twice in his age 20 and 21 seasons and never again came within .5 WAR of his peak performances, so there’s no reason to expect Soto to do better when Juan hasn’t yet eclipsed 7.0 WAR.
Now, the Earnings…
Soto is currently in his 2nd year of arbitration because he was a “Super Two”, and has two additional arbitration years coming up. He’s currently earning $17.1 M. The 2nd arbitration year is supposed be 60% of the open market value, so he should be making $17.1 x 1.40 = 23.94. That seems a little low. Let’s do this another way. In 2021, he put up 7.0 WAR at $9M per WAR = $63M. Shit, that looks really freaking high!
Let’s see here. Max Scherzer got a big fat contract last year and is the highest paid player in baseball annually at $43.3M AAV, coming off a 5.4 WAR season at age 37. Okay, that’s a good point of reference. 43.3M / 5.4 WAR = $8M per WAR.
Let’s say we have an accurate WAR value to attach to Soto. Going back to the projected 18.37 WAR remaining on his controllable years at $8.5M (I’m adding inflation to the AAV that Max got) and we get a 156.14 Field Value! Wow, that “Trade Value” of 176.8 is really looking like **BS** now. The same site lists his salary for the remainder of these next 2.36 years at 71.2M. Now, I’m just shaking my head because his surplus value would be 156.14 – 71.2 = 84.94. That’s a really long ways out from 176.8!
How the F did they come up with that Field Value of 248?!?! Let’s do some more math. We all know inflation is really freaking high right now, so let’s pretend that 1 WAR is worth 10M. It’s also a nice round number to math with. 248 Field Value divided by 10 means that Soto would have to put up around 25 WAR over the next 2.36 years or a whopping 10.59 WAR, something he’s never come close to and something that Mr. Trout never did. Not to mention, NO ONE IS GOING TO PAY $50M AAV for any player, much less the $95M+ AAV for a 10.59 WAR player at $9M per WAR.
What is Soto Really Worth?
Max Scherzer got $8M per WAR, and he’s the highest AAV-paid player in the game. Soto put up 7.0 WAR in his best season and 5.7 in his next best season. If we average his two best seasons together (12.7 / 2), he’s worth 6.35 WAR x 2.36 years of control at $8M per WAR = $120M minus the remaining salary of his controllable years, $6.15M this year, and the arbitration raises from 17.1M this year over the next two years. Let’s say those arbitration raises come out to be 20M next year and 25M the next. 120 – 6.15 – 20 – 25 = 68.55 is the real trade value of Juan Soto. If you want to add $1M to the WAR value to account for inflation, he’s worth around $15M more, or 83.55, so he probably falls somewhere in between.
This is why I don’t pay attention to what the Trade Simulator says. Now, go ahead and make some more Soto proposals now that you know what he’s really worth.
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Discussion (82)
Disagree, not disagreeable
The first shoe drops. The Mets acquire Daniel Vogelbach from the Mets for RHRP Colin Holderman. I guess the Mets didn’t check the trade simulator first as Vogelback has a 0.60 value and Holderman has a 2.70 value.
Dave Roberts said that the first base coach of the #SFGiants was relating signs to the hitters in the first inning and that’s why Tyler Anderson stopped and called out Mark Prior and why the umpires got together after that to tell the 1B coach to get back in the box. #Dodgers
RHP Brusdar Graterol (right shoulder inflammation)
Expected return: TBD
Graterol resumed playing catch on July 21, throwing from 90 feet and emerging pain-free and feeling good, according to manager Dave Roberts. Graterol likely won’t be ready to come off the IL when he’s eligible on July 26, but Roberts expects “it shouldn’t be much longer” than that. (Last updated: July 22)
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Walker Buehler will start a throwing program next week, with Monday marking the six-week anniversary of surgery to remove bone spurs from his right elbow per Bill Plunkett at the Orange County Register .
Can anyone tell me why is Zach McKinstry on the 26 man active roster and never plays? He could be at AAA Oklahoma City getting at bats, building up his stats and a candidate to be traded at the deadline in a package for a bat or SP.
Bobby Miller made the start on the mound last night for the Drillers in his first appearance since starting for the National League in last Saturday’s Future’s Game at Dodger Stadium. It was a difficult first inning for the hard-throwing right-hander, as he gave up an early run while needing 32 pitches to get through the first inning.
Miller pitched a scoreless second inning before running into further trouble in the third. The first two batters in the third reached safely, in front of a fly out and a run-scoring ground out that upped Wichita’s lead to 2-0.
The third out of the inning would prove to be elusive as Miller gave up three straight hits and two more runs, ending his outing. Gus Varland relieved and surrendered a base hit that plated the fourth run of the inning before he got a strikeout to end the inning.
He lasted 2.2 IP. He allowed 5 runs (4 earned) on 6 hits, 3 walks, and 2 strikeouts.
-Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Dustin May started and pitched 2.0 innings with OKC as part of a Major League Rehab Assignment. The right-handed pitcher allowed one run and three hits with three walks and three strikeouts. He faced 12 batters, throwing 49 pitches (24 strikes) and did not factor into the decision. May tore his right ulnar collateral ligament May 1, 2021 at Milwaukee and underwent Tommy John surgery 10 days later.
Why the hell would you take out your second best reliever who is unhittable against left-handed batters to bring in Vesia and have the other manager put in a right handed batter against Vesia who sucks against right handed batters?
I see it worked but that’s not the point.
Bring him back for the 8th!
Here he comes Eric!
I am sorry, but Logan Webb reminds me of Snidley Whiplash and I do not like the guy!
Meanwhile, the Red Sox are down 27-4 in the 7th
Before I forget, watch Roberts use EPhillips again today.
Just a reminder, the Dodgers are tied at number 1 in team batting OPS, number 1 in team starting pitching ERA, number 6 in team relief pitching ERA only 0.01 better than the 7th place team.
Alex Vesia is looking more and more like a LOOGY, left handed one out guy.
Phil Bickford is looking like a guy that’s going to lose his spot on the team (along with David Price) when IL relievers who are better than him return.
According to stats Craig Kimbrel’s slash line in the last 28 days is .231/.286/.308/.593, that is borderline excellent/good.
Great performance yesterday by Mitch White. It dropped his OPS for the year 40 points from .698 to .658
Miguel Vargas is back in OKC and starting at 3B tonight!
I can’t believe Roberts has Muncy in the 5 hole. He has become and automatic out. Let someone else pay a ton of money for Soto. I do not care, keep TT.
10:10 PM ET
LAD
Giants (48-44)
Dodgers (61-30)
SP Tyler Anderson L
10-1 2.96 ERA 97.1 IP 81K
Confirmed Lineup
RF Mookie Betts R
SS Trea Turner R
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
3B Max Muncy L
2B Gavin Lux L
DH Jake Lamb L
CF C. Bellinger L
LF T. Thompson R
Clear-day
0% Rain
74° Wind 6 mph Out
Dustin May will throw three innings tonight in OKC, a notable development in his rehab. Will go four innings next time if all goes well, then five, then could be ready to return to the big league club, Dave Roberts said.
All the Sports talk stations back here are reporting the Yankees are heavily in on Juan Soto.
No on Corbin and thus on Soto as well. Price as stated here many times before has been a colossal waste on the roster and is worthy of being dfa’d when IL pieces start returning. It was a bitter pill to swallow to get Mookie but can’t wait to see Price and his 16m go bye bye next year. Focus on Castillo and TT !
All this trade talk starts when Rosenthal, Passen, Stark, Kurkjian, and several others all get together right after the all-star game. They lock themselves in a hotel room with copious amounts of alcohol, mushrooms, acid, meth, crack, cocaine, and other drugs that have not been invented yet. They all have computers and keyboards on, and in a drunken, drug-induced craze, they make up the wildest $hit you have ever heard (all of which is not true) and laugh their asses off reading blogs like this.
I hear Patrick Corbin’s name tied in with a Soto trade. Does anyone think he is fixable? Price looked like a possibility but never panned out.
Aaron Judge is a free agent at the end of this season and his numbers are better than Soto. He is 7 years older but wouldn’t be near as expensive at Soto. Why are we driveling over Soto and net even mentioning Judge? I think that if we are going to make a big splash we should consider signing AJ at the end of this year.
Luis Castillo from the Reds is more important than Juan Soto of the Nationals if the Dodgers want to advance in October. By trading for him you would keep him away from the Yankees and Astros, the two most competitive opponents the Dodgers might face,. I actually think SP is a bigger need than people realize. No idea what May or Buehler will be able to contribute in October. Kershaw has been great but who knows if he can stay healthy. Gonsolin & Anderson both feel like they’re ready to come back to earth. Urias is the only one that we feel like we know exactly who he is right now.
Very enjoyable game and win with lots of emotions. I’m sure it was noted that it was the Dodger’s 28th come from behind victory of the season which is a good sign.
Some great news as well Mark.
Had a reply from Pete – he is banged up following his third back surgery and is making slow progress.
He gets his wife to print out Michael’s pieces and enjoys the memories they stir.
He promises that when he is a little better he will be back to posting regularly again.
You never know, if he has time on his hands he might write a nostalgic piece for us!
Anyway the good news is he’s alive and well and on the mend.
The games against the Giants are always close and very enjoyable.
Great piece again B – you’re getting good at this!!
Good analysis BP. Probably put too much work into that. I don’t know anybody that takes those simulators seriously. The only benefit they have is in a sport like the NBA where the salary cap and salary rules make trades a mathematical challenge beyond a player evaluation challenge.
That said, the simulator is a lot closer than many hypothetical trades I’ve seen proposed here. The Nats are going to demand a boatload of prospect for Soto. I agree with your evaluation of Soto, from a WAR perspective. He is not worth what he will be demanding as a FA, IMHO. And since he has 2 1/2 years of team control before then, teams will overpay in trade offers. Something I know AF simply won’t do. Payers like Soto are more for teams than just production. GMs are under pressure from ownership to make big moves for big names. Marginal playoff teams will make dope fiend moves to increase their odds in the playoff THIS YEAR. And cripple their teams in future years. We aren’t one of those teams. And I’m glad we aren’t.
I think the Nats will ask for one or both of either Vargas or Cartaya. And they should be untouchable. I believe Vargas will have an impact this season. Maybe even this month. Cartaya could be a generational talent. Given all the players likely to come off the roster next season, the depth in the system is more important than ever. JT, Max and possibly Trea can’t be replaced by Soto. And if we trade the players who will likely take their place to get Soto… we will no longer be a team with depth in the system. And AF values that more than anything.
Since there are few options available at SS next season, I can see the Dodgers overpaying for Trea in a front loaded deal. We know what we have with him. If Vargas can hit MLB pitching, and I have no reason to believe he won’t, we have a potential star in LF. Maybe not a Soto. But we don’t need a Soto to be even better next year.
IMHO, this time next year Vargas will be in LF hitting .280 with power and a solid OBP. Post AS break 2023, I think Cartaya will be in the mix getting time behind the plate and DH.
We won’t get Soto. Nor do I think we need him.
Really good, in-depth piece on Vargas in the Athletic today. Strange how low he is ranked in the top 100.
Open on theathletic.comhttps://theathletic.com/3441733/2022/07/22/miguel-vargas-dodgers/?source=user_shared_article