Jumping to Conclusions is Not an Olympic Sport
I admit that I jumped to conclusions when I heard that the Dodgers had signed Shohei Ohtani for $700 Million. I thought that was insane. It turned out that I had Myopia! In case you don’t know the meaning of myopia, here it is: “lack of imagination, foresight, or intellectual…
I admit that I jumped to conclusions when I heard that the Dodgers had signed Shohei Ohtani for $700 Million. I thought that was insane. It turned out that I had Myopia! In case you don’t know the meaning of myopia, here it is:
“lack of imagination, foresight, or intellectual insight.”
— Dictionary
Yep, I had no clue what his contract would be. No clue! It turns out that I lacked Vision, Foresight, and Intellectual Insight. The Ohtani signing by the Dodgers was a once-in-a-lifetime thing, and I never saw it coming. I was playing checkers and the Dodgers were playing 3D Chess. Don’t fall into the same trap I did.
The trade for Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot could be a stroke of genius. That is if Glasnow can stay healthy. That has always been the issue with him, but maybe… just maybe, it’s time for the worm to turn. If Glasnow can make 25 starts in 2024, he may very well win the Cy Young Award. No, he’s not an LHP like Blake Snell, but he has much better control… and much better stuff, for that matter now, if he can just stay healthy.
Dodger fans are losing their minds because Manual Margot is part of this deal. The fact of the matter is that Margot will make $10 Million in 2024, and the Rays are sending the Dodgers $4 Million, so his cost is but $6 Million. OK, I am going to tell you what I told you a couple of years ago: James Outman is a 4th or 5th outfielder! He is very good against RHP, but sucks against lefties. I was willing to give him another season to prove otherwise, but evidently, Andrew Friedman was not.
I think Manual Margot, who is a very good (if not elite) centerfielder, but he is not elite in the power department, is a great platoon partner to James Outman. He is a flawed player… as is James Outman. Outman is not nearly as good defensively (he is improving) as Margot, but they make a great LH/RH platoon.
James Outman hit 24 HR last year – Just one was against a LHP. His OPS against RHP was .857 – that is damn good. It was .664 against LHP – he sucked!
Manual Margot, in his career (back to 2016) has a .760 OPS against LHP and a .41 OB%. That’s 100 points higher than Outman! Margot sucks against RHO – his OPS is the same as Outman’s against LHP. MLBTR said this about Margot:
“Margot hits from the right side and should fit in nicely then. He has generally been a subpar hitter overall but does well with the platoon advantage. He’s hit .281/.341/.420 against lefties in his career for a 109 wRC+ compared to an 82 wRC+ and .244/.294/.370 line against righties.
He’s generally been a strong defender in his career. The grades for his glovework slipped a bit in 2023 but he was coming off a 2022 that he mostly missed due to a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee. The Dodgers will likely be hoping that he’s able to post better results now that he’s further removed from that injury, but if he’s due for a part-time role, it won’t be devastating if that doesn’t come to fruition.“
–– MLB Trade Rumors
This is a great platoon, with both players being flawed, but together, they could be close to elite. What’s not to like about that? Come on, man!
Now, they need to find a platoon partner in RF for Jason Heyward. Chris Taylor could fill that role, but now that the Dodgers have Margot, Kike Hernandez may be the odd man out. CT3 will be the “Swiss Army Knife” and play all over the diamond. Is Andy Pages ready for that? I doubt it, but you never know. Someone asked yesterday about Busch and Vargas. Maybe they are platooning in LF, or maybe one gets traded.
If the Dodgers sign Yamamoto – they are done… well, not quite! I do not expect Gavin Lux to be the starting SS. Even if the Dodgers do not trade for Burnes, they might trade Lux and Rojas, along with a prospect for Adames! Then, they are done!
It appears that the Dodgers will platoon in CF and RF, and I do not get why fans would be upset with that. Of course, this is all contingent upon Tyler Glasnow (an LA Native) signing an extension, and one would have to believe that the Dodgers are pretty confident he will. What is also apparent to me is that Dave Roberts has to lead this 2024 version of the Dodgers to a championship. Nothing else is acceptable at this juncture – fair or not!
The LA Times Bill Plaschke has it nailed today. The moron gets it right now and then:
One of those questions was about whether the signing puts more pressure on the Dodgers to win now.
— Bill Plaschke – The LA Times
“It certainly does,” Roberts said. “Us three sitting up here, Mark [Walter] and our staff and our fans, this is what we dream of, to have the highest of expectations.”
Guess who will bear the weight of those increased expectations? Yeah, the guy who spent the afternoon in the shadows.
But it’s clear that the Ohtani signing puts Roberts under the microscope like never before.
The Dodgers have to win a championship sooner than later, with this new increased heat subtly coming from their new virtual co-owner. Ohtani won’t ever do anything to get a manager fired, but he can certainly withhold his support if the Dodgers aren’t winning titles. He went through three managers in six years in Anaheim, and he’s not backing another first-round collapse.
The way he heard the Dodgers, their last 10 years have been a first-round collapse.
“When I had the meeting with them, the ownership group, they said when they look back at the last 10 years, even though they’ve been to the playoffs every single year, won a World Series ring, they consider that a failure,” Ohtani explained through his interpreter. “When I heard that, I knew they were all about winning.”
Does that mean there are people in the organization who look at Roberts’ eight seasons as a failure? Because that’s just crazy. He’s had his postseason missteps, certainly, but lately those have been a result of the front office’s failure to provide adequate pitching, and his consistent summers have constantly put them in a position to win.
Many Dodgers fans think of Roberts as a dugout Brandon Staley. Those fans need to think again.
The Dodgers have won at least 100 games in five of his eight seasons, his .630 winning percentage is the best in baseball history among managers with at least 1,000 games, and he has three World Series appearances and one World Series championship.
With his endless energy and eternal optimism, Roberts is slowly becoming the new Tommy Lasorda, and he should increasingly play a bigger role in the Dodgers’ family portrait.
Despite the two recent first-round collapses, Roberts is coming off his best managerial season yet — he won a division with half the team in bandages — and he’s the perfect person to guide this now volatile machine through the usual messes.
Ohtani has never experienced the major-league madness that can overtake a Dodgers clubhouse located loudly in the middle of an entertainment capital. He’ll soon learn that he’ll not only want Roberts on that wall, he’ll need him on that wall.
Roberts’ specialty is in muting that madness, having led the team through the distractions of Yasiel Puig, the demons of COVID, and the departures of stars such as Corey Seager and veterans such as Justin Turner.”
The only thing that is acceptable in 2024 is a World Series Championship – anything less and Dave Roberts will be the fall guy! True or not…
More from Dodger Talk
Dodgers Food Trailer
I did this interview a couple of weeks ago with Chef Mike, who runs the Dodgers Food Trailer for the Great Lakes Loons. They are there for every home and road regular season and playoff game. They prepare three meals a day for approximately 50 people (players and coaches). Since games end late most evenings, they do not prepare breakfast. Many of their hotels have a complimentary breakfast anyway. However,…
Meet LAD 2026 Draft Picks 1-12
3 picks were High School players (2 SS and 1 OF). There was a college OF, college catcher, college SS, and 10 college pitchers. Of all the talk for a need for a catcher, the only catcher the Dodgers selected was Luke Bard, son of LAD bullpen coach Josh Bard. Bard was a 4th year senior from Houston Christian University. He is not a prospect, so the Dodgers are still…
Interview with Paul Beachy – Team Bus Driver For The Great Lakes Loons (LA Dodgers Minor League Team)
It’s been a few days since I did this interview. We have evidently been working my son-in-law (the video guy) like a rented mule at US Water Systems. However, I am taking him to London with me in a few days, so maybe Watford will buy him a pint as a tip, but he’s a dang Red Sox fan, so there is that! I thought that it would be interesting…
Thanks for Your Service: Chris Taylor
I was going to do this post when Chris announced he was retiring, then he changed his mind, but since the chances of him ever playing for the Dodgers again are slim and non-existent, I will go ahead with this post. He unretired, went on the IL, then decided to call it quits on May 24th. Taylor was born in Virginia Beach VA on August 29th, 1990. He attended Great…
Discussion (70)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Only one problem. Sasaki has not been posted and may not be until he is 25, which is 3 years away,
we can only pray that the Glasnow deal pays off. i believe it will but history could show its ugly face again. Friedman isn’t a genius , nor is ownership. the Bauer thing didn’t work. probably no fault of AF. Bauer was,is a weird guy who was probably set up. like Mark says, nothing here, move on. the asking price for Cease and Burnes is getting higher daily . so AF , go get Cease now, PLEASE!
From Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic:
“It turns out that Ohtani had already been pitching the Dodgers’ next move, as sources told The Athletic that the two-way superstar sent Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow a video trying to woo him to Los Angeles.
In the video, Shohei Ohtani expressed that he wished he could share a rotation with Glasnow this season. Ohtani won’t pitch for the Dodgers in 2024 as he recovers from elbow surgery). “But,” the superstar said, “I want to hit some home runs for you.”
I have been wrong many times. I might be wrong this time. But as a fan, like all of you, I am entitled to think and believe what I want to. I believe this is a bad trade. From the many times I have seen him play, both in San Diego and with the Rays, he has not impressed me at all. Glasnow has an ERA in the post-season of 5.72. That is supposed to help them win a title? I think it is all wishful thinking. He was 0-2 against the Dodgers in the 2020 World Series. He gave up 10 earned runs in 9.1 innings. This is your boost for the rotation? And you are paying him 20 mil plus to be a five inning pitcher? He is a RH version of Snell with a little better control. I would rather ride the arms of kids, who are hungry to prove they belong, than the arm of an oft injured huge question mark and pay that guy 20 million plus. I think Deluca is going to out perform Margot.
Astros just announced that they are open to listening on trade offer’s regarding Framber Valdez.
Curious: is there any evidence that teams need at least one lefty starter or is it mostly “common knowledge?”
Glasnow’s salary is 27 million per year on average, AF could have gotten a true ace in Yamamoto for a few million per year more than Glasnow without trading Pepiot. Yes, Glasnow is not a true ace.
Can AF still get Yamamoto? That’s the question.
Some trades make you feel all warm and fuzzy. Never got that feeling with this one. As soon as they mentioned Margot instead of Arozarena I lost all interest. Margot is no where near being a difference maker. I am not impressed with any player who has a career OPS below .700.
i would rather see dodgers trade for cease than sign japanese right hander. it’s going to be at least a 8 year deal. think one super long deal is enough . are the owners trying to give AF a coronary? Cease makes more sense to me. 2 years left on his contract. with ohtani back, miller , glasnow,a possible return of walker buehler, that’s nice. let’s not forget about sheehan and stone, and knack and gonsolin and dustin may all in 2025! a lot to be thankful for! still need a left fielder! i’m probably trading busch in a deal simply because too much left handed hitters . i hate to see him go because i think in the future he hits wayway better than Vargas.
I don’t get why people are upset with this trade. Glasnow has better stuff than Pepiot and Pepiot is not exactly some iron man throwing 200 innings a year. They both had oblique injuries last year Glasnow returned months earlier than Pepiot. The way the Dodgers use starters if Glasnow goes 130 innings a year he will be a success. All that really matters is can he start game one or two of the playoffs.
All the angst about Margot is much about nothing. He’s a platoon player this year and Pages is the right fielder in 2025. You hear everyone say wait until spring to judge the off season. It’s only December 15th. AF gave 2 controllable average players for a potential number one starter. I’ll trust the front office knows more about Glasnow’s health than we will ever know.
Mark hasn’t put down the pipe he was smoking yesterday.
AF didn’t even want Margot. This was really a straight up trade of Glasnow for Pepiot, but the Rays insisted on dumping Margot on the Dodgers and wanted a younger equivalent of Margot with more potential and that was DeLuca. AF got fleeced in that part of the trade.
The Kike Hernandez infatuation he has is mind-boggling. Outman’s career is 1 year, so let’s look at Kike Hernandez’s stats against LHP last year and compare it to Outman’s 1 year career against LHP since Mark doesn’t want to give Outman more at bats against LHP. Kike Hernandez in 2023 .239/.304/.338/.642 is that an upgrade over Outman against LHP? The answer is clear and yet before AF got Margot, Mark was calling for AF to get Hernandez to platoon with Outman.
So now AF got Mark a shiny new object in Margot (does anyone want Margot?) that he is now advocating for to platoon with Outman just like Hernandez, all the while there’s Heyward that is a PROVEN platoon player. Let’s take a look at Margot’s slashline in 2023 against LHP and compare it to Outman’s 1 year career against LHP. Margot in 2023 .277/.293/.372/.665 Does that look like an upgrade over Outman against LHP? The answer is clear and hell, why not platoon the whole outfield while you’re at it Mark.
Before Mark says look at Hernandez and Margot’s career against LHP instead of just 2023. If you don’t give Outman more time against LHP, then you’re trigger happy with a small sample and should only compare 2023 numbers.
Hell, why don’t we replace all the homegrown position players with players outside of the organization. Mark wants to get rid of Lux for Adames (Why I don’t know) and at one time wanted to trade Outman for another player outside of the organization and would trade Outman in a heartbeat still. Look at who he wants to platoon with Outman, first Kike Hernandez and now his shiny new object Margot.
By the way Mark, who’s going to platoon with Adames against LHP? .227/.308/.404/.712 is Adames career stats against LHP. And yet you don’t like Outman’s career stats against LHP .252/.359/.305.664 that’s .025 BA better than Adames and .048 OPS worse than Adames and Adames has A LOT larger sample size than Outman does.
Enough said.
Just read that Ohtani told Doc he is willing to play left field later in the season if his arm will allow it.
Scherzer had back surgery and will be out until at least July. Herniated disc.
I am tired of losing. I think Friedman is also tired of losing. One more starting pitcher and we are done. Yamamoto or Cease. Platoon Busch and Vargas in LF. Sending them back to the minors is not an option. Platoon Heyward and CT3.
Now, Roberts. He better go far in the playoffs or he is done.
In 2025 we get Ohtani, May and Gonsolin back. Stick that in your pipe and smoke it.
Good pitching beats good hitting. Looking at the Dodger staff, other than Buehler, who is coming off of TJ surgery, I see no one who fills me with joy. Miller is inexperienced, but very talented. In two or three years, he will be the ace, I totally believe that. I do not believe Glasnow is an ace. I think he is a very talented pitcher who has been injured too often. I am predicting, he is the first pitcher who will go down with an injury or some other ailment. I also predict this is one contract that is going to come back and bite AF in the ass. I would rather have seen the prospect capital used on Burnes. Or even Cease. Wacha and Flaherty are off of the market now. Flaherty signing with the Tigers and Wacha going to the Royals. Margot may have been injured, and he may hit lefties better than righties, but he has about as much power as Rojas, which means little. His defense is ok. Heyward is gold glove level defense and Outman is getting better. Mookie won’t be out there anymore. I am ok with that. but I also think they could have done a whole lot better than Maggot.
I am disappointed to lose DelLuca,, I think he could be a star, with speed, excellent defensive skills, and I think he will hit. TB must think that, too, and they are usually right in heir projections. We will see. I don’t like the trade much, for that reason, but it is obviously hard to find top pitching, so this what we went for. Without Yamamoto, though, our staff is insufficient,, in my opinion. Our lineup is obviously great at the top, not too impressive after, say, the fifth spot. We have a number of “ifs,” for a team which is actually now the betting favorite to win the title. Of course, a lot of money has been lost by bettors who keep making the Dodgers the favorite or second favorite in the Futures odds.
His AVG is decent against LHP, just not the HR power (yet).
Not the black hole you make it out to be, and 800K in CF is bargain. Dodgers are going
to need to be able to have inexpensive players where they can.
For those who find it critical to have a LHP in the rotation:
Open on www.mlbtraderumors.comhttps://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/jesus-luzardo-drawing-trade-interest.htmlLux was a highly touted prospect, but was relegated to 2base/OF due Seager’s and Turner’s presence at the time. His career has been derailed due to injuries but Dodger brass was high on this young man before being shutdown due to injury.
While I have my concerns regarding his ability to play SS, mostly due to his wild throws, players develop/mature. The Dodgers owe it to themselves to see what they have in Lux. Especially if player development folks and coaches are in favor of him manning the position.
Gavin has shown flashes with the bat. Turner wasn’t winning any gold gloves with his play at SS. Besides, the addition of Shohei has completely changed the make up of this lineup. We simply cannot afford all-stars at a every position. We need play cheaper prospects like Lux to offset larger contracts.
In terms of Margot, Glasnow alone is worth more than the two prospects we traded for him. Taking on Margot’s contract was a necessary evil to limit the impact on our farm system. If anyone is shocked by the two prospects we traded, I can’t imagine what we would be hearing if it was a cheaper and more talented Arozarena than Margot who was in the mix.
Margot was injured last year, but if he comes close to his “average year” I will be ecstatic!
No matter what anyone says, Outman is not good against LHP –
Against RHP, he averages a HR every 16 ABs. .847 OPS
,
Against LHP, he averages a HR every 130 ABs. .665 OPS
He is Miguel Rojas against LHP.
Actually, he is a fit version of Joc Pederson with better defensive skills.
I agree with Johnny above. Let’s just give Busch a LF glove and see. Geez we tried Joc at first base. AND while we fiddle around with platoons in the outfield what we really need is a LHSP. I’m hopeful AF will get to that. He’s not done.
And for all of the impatient critics who went off AF last year for the lack of moves in the “Transition Year”, you can see where that got us. The salaries that came off the books and no over pays for temporary fixes, has led to signing Ohtani and hopefully others like Yamamoto. AF was smart to stick to his guns and suck it up for a year while still winning 100 games.
“Now, they need to find a platoon partner in RF for Jason Heyward. Chris Taylor could fill that role” Not in my lineup. CT3 has serious reverse splits hitting .210 last year and .193 in 2022 v LHP.
We have one too many utility guys. We hang onto a declining CT3 because we are overpaying him. I’d move him in a heartbeat but who wants his $15 million contract. He slides under everyone’s roster radar with his 37% strikeout rate.
So we’re looking at platoons in Right, Left and now Center?
Did you see what the opposition did last post season with Doc’s super predictable platoons? Just sandwich in a new opposite arm pitcher in the 4th for a short stint and the back to the original arm side guy. Doc turns over the whole line up. And that didn’t match up in the late innings.
Aren’t there outfielders without big splits?
I’m just not a fan of platoons in 3 or 4 positions.
Dodgers must be REALLY optimistic about Glasnows durability looking at this extension.
IMHO a huge gamble given his medical history.
Margot is not an upgrade to what we already had on the roster, including deLuca. Overall I do not like that trade very much. Looks like hit and hope to me.
Lets hope they can get Yamamoto too.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
All the focus should be on starting pitching. We should have enough bats. Just give Busch a LF glove.
i’m not thrilled with the outfield! but defensively it’s pretty good. it’s the offense that worries me! now the left side of the infield? that’s a whole new story! shortstop and 3rd could be very weak on a daily basis. i know Max works hard but he’s middle of the pack 3rd baseman. Lux? we don’t know. Rojas? great glove, but the bat isn’t what you want on a team that is being called a super team! i don’t buy that description at all . Atlanta is better top to bottom as we message among ourselves. there is no denying that. add Luis Robert to that lineup and then we can start the conversation! infield is pretty much a wash. outfield as it stands, Atlanta is better. the pitching isn’t completed yet. so no need to compare to the Braves. but if yhe Dodgers add another quality pitcher , advantage LA. there still is work to do! i said earlier this week the outfield for me is not elite. addy margot doesn’t change that . a heyward, margot platoon works. so either go hard after Robert for center field, or a left fielder. like chris taylor a lot, but again, he is not an everyday player. TOO much wiff! and another year of watching barnes swing and miss or stand there and taking 3rd strikes! i don’t see the same defense or game calling others do . i know i know, pitchers love him . don’t get it, but that’s just me.
11:03am: The option year is actually 2028, not 2029, tweets Feinsand. That means Glasnow will be guaranteed $90MM from 2025-27, with the possibility of earning $120MM over the new portion of the contract (if the Dodgers pick up their club option) or $110MM through 2028. Between the $110MM in new money the $25MM Glasnow was already set to earn, it’s a $135MM contract that comes with a $27MM luxury hit.