Not all trades work out. Specifically, I am talking about Ryan Pepiot and Jonny LeDuca for Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot. It’s easy for a fan to look at a glass half full or a glass half empty. I prefer to think that there is no glass. Every trade is “Risk vs. Reward.” In the instant case, the Dodgers traded Ryan Pepiot (a prospect), who at best was a #3 starter, but most likely a #4 starter, and Jonny DeLuca, who was a low-ranking #4 or #5 outfielder for Tyler Glasnow, an oft-injured pitcher who has some of the most filthy stuff on the planet and a journeyman centerfielder who is very good against LHP and plays a very good CF.
The Dodgers are obligated to pay both players something less than $150 Million. It was reported that Shohei Ohtani lobbied Glasnow to come to LA because he wanted to “hit some home runs” for him. I hear that Ohtani really wanted him. Let me remind you that the last “Tyler” who came to LA saw his ERA drop from 4.81 to 2.57. Let me also remind you that the Dodgers are excellent in turning pitchers who are struggling into excellent. YES, I KNOW IT DOES NOT ALWAYS WORK! But, it does work enough that it is a consideration.
I would assume that the Dodgers have reviewed the medicals and that Dr. Neal S. ElAttrache has approved them. It is no secret that Glasnow has had various injuries which have held him back. It’s also no secret that he has devastating stuff. Evidently, Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers feel that the Reward outweighs the Risk and you are certainly free to form your own opinions. I will just point out that the Dodger Brass has access to a lot more information than we do.
I do find it interesting that he was traded to the Rays from the Pirates for Chris Archer, who now works for the Dodgers. I have seen him pitch up close and personal right here in Indianapolis, where he was incredibly dominating. Most of his injury issues were related to the UCL and Flexor Tendon problems and several tries at rehabilitation instead of surgery… which he ultimately had. I would estimate that failed rehab and resultant surgery cost him four years of his career. Some of his arm problems can be traced back to 2020 when he became the second pitcher to start a game (the Clinching Game 5 against Gerrit Cole and the Yankees) on just two days rest.
By the way, he has two nicknames: Mini Horse and Baby Giraffe. I think the Dodgers’ Mark Prior, Conner McGinnis, and the Driveline guys are excited to work with him. Sight tells you that he is a huge pitcher who has some good stuff. The question is: Do the Dodgers have “vision” that we don’t? We shall see.
The Dodgers are still in the Yamamoto sweepstakes, and many baseball types still rank them as the favorites to get him. The Dodgers are set to blow through the Lux Tax Thresholds (“Damn the torpedos – full speed ahead“) for 2024. If that happens, I do not see the need to trade for Burnes or Cease.
I think the wise course is to keep the farm intact and, if trades are needed, make them at the Trade Deadline with Prospect Collateral. It’s time for some of these guys to deliver. In order to deliver, they have to play! The Dodgers may play and trade in the margins, but after Yamamoto (if that happens), they are done.
Ryan Pepiot will likely be a decent Middle-of-the-Rotation Pitcher, and Jonny DeLuca is a Journeyman Platoon Player. That’s not a lot to give up for an Ace and a Platoon Partner who will make James Outman better.
Right about now, the Dodgers are better than they were last year. I say that because I believe you will see some incredible growth from the Youngsters as well: Feduccia, Busch, Vargas, Sheehan, Miller, Pages, Frasso, Hurt, Knack, et al. Kershaw is now making noise that he wants one more chance and he will get it it! This team (as it sits) will likely win 100 games again.
Dave Roberts and the Split From the Front Office
It turns out that was AGAIN “manufactured bullshit” by the raunchy media. MLBTR has an article on this: Agent Nez Balelo Discusses Shohei Ohtani’s Free Agency where this was said:
“Balelo also seemed to push back against reports that suggested any public acknowledgement by a team of its interest in Ohtani could or would detract from the team’s chances. “That was ridiculous. Those words never came out of my mouth,” Balelo said, pointing out that Dodgers manager Dave Roberts’ admission at the Winter Meetings that L.A. was in on Ohtani “sure didn’t have an effect, did it?”‘
— MLBTR
Ballo also bashed Dodgers’ Nation and JP Hoornstra by saying:
“about the most reckless reporting I’ve ever experienced in this game,” as “I felt really, really bad for the country of Canada. And I felt really, really bad for the Toronto Blue Jays organization. They are really good people. What they had to endure, and the pain, wasn’t right. I felt so bad for all of them that they had to go through that because it was the extreme emotional roller coaster of thinking that they had him and then finding out they didn’t.”
— Nez Balelo
Discussion (23)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Instead of a platoon partner for Outman, it might be better to get one for Max.
His OPS against righties was .883–and only .641 against lefties.
Max still showed some power against lefties–11HRs–but his BA was .155 and OBP was .263, pretty bad for a guy who walks a lot. Outman’s OBP was nearly 100 points higher.
This could be an opportunity for Vargas, who played 3B in the minors.
Chess my ass. AF is playing Jenga. This could come crashing down.
Stole this from Twitter:
At the end of the day, the Dodgers swapped a small school 3rd rounder and a 25th rounder for one of the few true ace-level talents in the game.
Hire good scouts
Hire good coaches
Hire good analytics folks
Let em cook
Any team can do this, lots choose not to.
Why all the hate for Outman? this is his career stats .254/.358/.448/.806 I’ve heard if your career OPS is .800 or better you are considered a star. .254 BA is not bad, it’s not good though. Sure he needs to improve in power against LHP, but his BA against LHP is .252
Well, I’ve had some time to process this trade and I’ve decided to stay neutral but hopeful.
Of course I’m concerned that he has only pitched more than 100 innings in 2 of his years since being in the majors….but I’m optimistic in that this past year was the year he has pitched the most innings in a season -120. So maybe he is recovering nicely from his TJ surgery in 21. And of course, I remember how our boys knocked the snot out of him in the WS in 2020….but maybe he was injured.
I’m okay with the OF we got because I think he will be a good platoon with Heyward, so no problem here with me. I’m a bit saddened to see Pepiot and DeLuca leave and I think both will do well in Tampa with little media exposure, so I wish them the best.
I hope Ohtani can convince Yamamoto to come on down….we may need him.
Maybe I’ve been out of the loop seeing I’m wrapped up in the NFL season, but won’t Gonsolin, May, and Buehler be back pitching for us in 24? I keep reading people saying we lack SP…..so, do these 3 guys not count? Plus Miller, Clayton and now Glasnow.
Thanks….
TM
Here’s Glasnow’s career playoff stats. The playoffs are all that matter. Make of it what you will.
1.48 WHIP
1.96 HR/9
5.72 E.R.A
Prior and his guys have turned some pitchers around and others not. That is hoping, the above stats are results.
Everyone should read this book:
It made me realize what a dumbass I am.
Blind Joe, your pontification about Glasnow not being an ace got me thinking so I looked up his numbers from 2019 (his first year in Tampa) through 2023. Here are his numbers compared to some pretty good aces:
Tyler Glasnow since 2019 – 3.03 ERA, 137 ERA+, 2.89 FIP
AL CYA Winners:
Gerrit Cole since 2019 – 2.94 ERA, 146 ERA+, 3.12 FIP
Justin Verlander (2 CYAs in this stretch) since 2019 – 2.51 ERA, 170 ERA+, 3.22 FIP
Robbie Ray since 2019 – 3.88 ERA, 109 ERA+, 4.26 FIP
Shane Bieber since 2019 – 3.07 ERA, 139 ERA+, 3.12 FIP
NL CYA Winners:
Blake Snell since 2019 – 3.37 ERA, 120 ERA+, 3.44 FIP
Sandy Alcantara since 2019 – 3.30 ERA, 129 ERA+, 3.71 FIP
Corbin Burnes since 2019 – 3.30 ERA, 128 ERA+, 3.08 FIP
2020 NL CYA winner since 2019 – 3.45 ERA, 134 ERA+, 3.98 FIP
Jacob DeGrom since 2019 – 2.26 ERA, 182 ERA+, 2.17 FIP
What this tells me is his numbers are better than Robbie Ray, Shane Bieber, Blake Snell, Sandy Alcantara, and Corbin Burnes. He is close to Gerrit Cole and only is significantly worse than Verlander and DeGrom. It also tells me your list of aces is very small.
I believe we got a very talented pitcher and the only thing keeping this trade from being an absolute home run is whether he can stay on the field. That obviously remains to be seen.
I’m always astounded by how many people on this site know so much more than the professionals paid a lot of money to make these assessments. Oh well, some things will never change.
If the season starts today, what would the lineup and starting rotation be? I don’t see beyond 4 hitters out of the 9, and more than 2 starters out of the 5, just because we have Othani does not mean that LA is a favorite to win, not even to reach the world series. This team is still far from being powerful like others, a couple of pitchers, a right-handed power hitter (LF) and then…. MAYBE
2B – Betts
1B – Freeman
DH – Ohtani
C. – Smith?
3B – Muncy?
SS – Lux?
LF – ???
CF – Outman
RF – Heyward?
SP Miller
SP Glass now (and ever)
SP ???
SP ???
SP ???
I think I forgot about the other starting pitchers, because I don’t remember who else….. And is that lineup and starters supposed to be ready, with the possible arrival of Yamamoto?
I keep reading that by signing Yamamoto, Dodgers will be settled!
OFFICIAL DODGER PRESS RELEASE
DODGERS ACQUIRE TYLER GLASNOW & MANUEL MARGOT
LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers have acquired right-handed pitcher Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for right-handed pitcher Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny DeLuca. Additionally, Glasnow has agreed to a five-year contract extension with the Los Angeles Dodgers for $136.5 million.
Glasnow, 30, joins the Dodgers after spending the last six seasons with the Tampa Bay Rays. In 2023, he went 10-7 with a 3.53 ERA, allowing 47 runs in 120 innings with 162 strikeouts in a career-best 21 starts. He finished with career-highs in wins, starts, strikeouts, strikeouts per 9 (12.2) and innings pitched. In six seasons with Rays, he went 27-16 with a 3.20 ERA and 526 strikeouts in 388.1 innings. He has been in the Major Leagues parts of eight seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates (2016-2018) and Tampa Bay (2018-2023) and he is a combined 30-27 with a 3.89 ERA in 529.2 innings. The Southern California native was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the fifth round of the 2011 First Year Player Draft out of William S. Hart High School.
Margot, 28, appeared in 99 games for the Rays in 2023, slashing .264/.310/.376 with four homers and 38 RBI. He finished his fourth season with Tampa Bay, staring in a total of 360 games and recording 66 doubles, six triples, 19 homers and 153 RBI while posting a .984 fielding percentage. He began his career with the San Diego Padres in 2021, playing four seasons with the Friars and hitting .248 with 33 homers and 130 RBI in 428 games. He originally signed with the Boston Red Sox as a minor league free agent on July 2, 2011 from San Cristobal, Dominican Republic.
Pepiot, 26, made eight appearances (three starts) for the Dodgers last season, allowing 10 runs in 42.0 innings with 38 strikeouts. He went 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA, while posting career bests in innings pitched, ERA+ (204), WHIP (0.76) and batting average against (.179). In two seasons with the Dodgers, he went a combined 5-1with a 2.76 ERA in 17 games (10 starts) with 80 strikeouts in 78.1 innings. The Indiana native spent parts of three seasons in the minor leagues with the Dodgers, going 14-12 with a 3.51 ERA and 298 strikeouts in 64 games (55 starts). He was originally drafted by the Dodgers in the third round (102nd overall) of the 2019 First Year Player Draft out of Butler University.
Deluca, 25, appeared in 24 games for the Dodgers last season, hitting .262 with one double, two homers and six RBI. With Triple-A Oklahoma City, he hit .306 with 13 doubles, two triples, seven homers and 35 RBI in 41 games. He began the season with Double-A Tulsa, hitting .279 with 10 homers and 18 RBI. The Southern California native was originally drafted by the Dodgers in the 25th round of the 2019 First Year Player Draft out of the University of Oregon.
Sold?
No.
But I do see the possibilities in the windshield. The rear-view mirror has some value, but the future is not going to be found by staring at that.
I am getting ready to head out to our Annual Company Christmas Party today, but this is the topic for tomorrow’s column.
So far sooo good! This team is definitely improved, we have the modern day Babe Ruth who will pitch in 25’ and we have a 6’ 8’’ Ace who is filthy! We are also not done, eventually we will have another Ace (hopefully Yamamoto) or it could be Burnes along with Adames. Friedman and Gomes and company are moving and shaking and are to be commended for a job well done! Feels great as usual to be a Dodgers fan!!! Lets Geaux Dodgers!!
It’s fun to watch the roster additions and ruminate on who might be next!
Another frontline starter is def needed, although the Dodgers may wait until mid-season, giving their young arms a chance.
The outfield is underwhelming at the moment. A bunch of platoons might get us thru the regular season, but we need at least one star, leader, grinder to who can make game saving catches while delivering clutch hits.
My biggest concern, however, is the left side of the infield. Muncy/Lux is weak defensively. That can’t stand imo. Muncy is slow to his right and even slower on rollers in front of him. Only Freddie digging Max’s throws out of the dirt keep Max’s defensive profile as average. Max does not pass the eye test; we all hold our breath when the ball is hit his direction in big moments. I
MLBTR has a Good Explanation of why Blake Snell is of no interest to the Dodgers:
““The Dodgers are showing interest in seemingly every pitcher but Blake Snell,” Jon Heyman of The New York Post writes, running counter to Heyman’s own report from a month ago suggesting that Los Angeles was one of the teams in on the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner. While Heyman didn’t go into specifics about why Snell may no longer be on the Dodgers’ radar, obviously much has changed for L.A. within the last month — namely the Shohei Ohtani signing and (on the more immediate pitching front) the impending trade and extension involving Tyler Glasnow.
Since Los Angeles exceeded the luxury tax last season, the Dodgers had to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 draft as compensation for Ohtani, who rejected the Angels’ qualifying offer. Snell also rejected a QO from the Padres, so the thought of giving up two more picks to add Snell might simply not be palatable for the Dodgers.
Fearless Prediction:
Manual Margot will be the 2021 Version of the Braves Eddie Rosario!
He has a knack for the dramatic.
Pepiot might have been a bit of a mirage late year in his small sample of 42 innings.
He was probably the beneficiary of some luck with a BABIP of .189. If you look at his FIP adjusted ERA, which factors in a typical BABIP of .300, his ERA is 4.18.
He got his walk rate way way down last year. Good for him, but the knock on him has always been the lack of command. Watching him in 2022 was frustrating b/c of his inefficiency. He threw a lot of pitches, and always seemed to be laboring and behind in the count. Although last year he may have turned a corner and turned into Greg Maddux, my suspicion is that he winds up a little closer to his historical norm.
He has a great changeup. It works better against lefties. Not as much against righties, and it really needs to play off a good fastball. His fastball is ok. Nothing extraordinary. His success as a MLB starter hinged on him learning a bona fide third pitch – slider or curve – to match up better against right hand batters. His slider improved a bit, but it’s not exactly lights out.
His Stuff+ score is 98, which is a little below average.
Glasnow’s Stuff+ score is 121, which is pretty elite. His K/9 is over 12, which is Spencer Strider territory. His FIP peripherals are better than his 3.53 ERA would indicate.
As for his injury history, in 2019 he was on the IL with forearm issues, which are typically a harbinger of a future Tommy John procedure. After a good 2020, he went under the knife to fix the ulnar collateral ligament once and for all in 2021. He bounced back and pitched 120 innings last year, a career high. Oftentimes what you see with pitchers is that they come back fully or even better the second year back from TJ, so if you’re going to bet on him bouncing back and having a breakout year (and really all baseball signings and trades are just bets. You can’t predict the future, after all), this would be a good time. No guarantees, but I’d throw the dice, and 27 million AAV, especially considering his ceiling, is not an overspend. Snell will probably get more than that. Sonny Gray is almost getting that much.
“But I wanted Burnes! Burnes is better! Burnes! … Burnes!”
Is Burnes even available? I’ve heard conflicting reports on that. It seems the Brewers are dithering here and hoping for a sweetheart deal to come around … and why would they trade him now? The Brewers play in a really weak division. They have every chance of winning that division and going to the playoffs where, as we know, crapshoot at all, they have as good a chance as any at advancing. I’d hold on to Burnes if I were the Brewers. If they’re floundering at the ASB, they can unload him then for young, controllable talent. With the Rays they were more anxious to sell now b/c they don’t want to pay his 25 million salary. If you wanted to pry Burnes loose (and get Adames, too), it would take a lot more than Pepiot and De Luca, and a lot of you are crying over that.
I’d prefer to have De Luca over Margot, too, but Friedman can’t fleece everyone (not every GM is AJ Preller, LOL). The Rays are good at deal-making, too. That’s how they’re competitive every year in spite of being dirt poor.
And Margot isn’t terrible. He’s always been a good defender. His D took a dip last year, but he was injured, and, as Mark pointed out, he’s decent offensively against lefties. He’ll be an ok platoon complement for Heyward.
Anyone who can’t see that Margot is an outstanding player who will be the key to getting a World Series for the Dodgers doesn’t know a lick about baseball. (shameless ploy to get a rise out of Bear)
I ve really no clue, but surely the lure of playing with Ohtani in a winning team must make us favourites to sign him.
I think we’ll get him.
If the Yankees sign Yamamoto, as I still think likely, though I hope I am wrong, they will have the best 1-2 starting duo in the AL. and might have turned into the best team in baseball. The Braves have Fried and Strider, and the best team in the NL. The Dodgers have…Glasnow and Miller? Obviously, at least to me, we need Yamamoto; without him, our starers do not sufficiently match up in a playoff series. Sign him, and we are the favorites; don’t get him, and we have the best 1-3 batting lineup in baseball, but are not going to beat the best teams in the playoffs, even if we do win 100=105 regular season games. Yamamoto is crucial for us, even if the excitement of the Ohtani signing might obscure that for now.
Ohtani already paying dividends before he plays his first game as a Dodger!
In terms of Glasnow, his inability to stay on the field makes him a risky acquisition; however, after the Brewers intimated an unwillingness to trade Burnes, the logical target became Glasnow, not Cease.
While Dylan Cease offers two years of control and a better track record health wise, Cease is the type of pitcher that helps us win during the season but not necessarily in the playoffs. Cease had an excellent 2022 campaign, but that is starting look more like an outlier, as he’s been average most of his career. Could he breakthrough and take his game to another level? Perhaps, but are you willing to bet the farm on that? Because that is exactly what it is going to take to acquire him.
On the other hand, the trade with the Rays not limit the impact on the farm, but Tyler Glasnow is the type of pitcher that offers the best chance of success in the playoffs. A Buehler, Wheeler, Cole, etc type pitcher. One that has the ability to shut down good bats with a superior repertoire. Glasnow possesses the type of talent that provides more favorable odds whenever he takes the mound. However, the question is not talent with Glasnow. Can he stay healthy enough to be a force in the playoffs?
Glasnow managed to avoid the IL once he got going last season. Clearly, Dodger brass liked what they saw during the required physical examinations. Given the Dodgers track record of working with reclamation projects, I have faith that the Dodgers will find ways to keep Glasnow on the field. Whether it be better nutrition and/or a tailored training program. From a pure talent and need perspective, no other pitcher currently available checks those boxes.
I think you have that headline backwards, since this deal is about Glasnow, potential ace, not the new fourth outfielder.
The difference between Burnes and Glasnow is that Burnes is a proven ace. Glasnow threw 120 innings last season–the most of his career. Burnes has been much more durable, throwing at least 167 innings in each of the last three seasons. Over six seasons, Burnes has thrown more than 700 innings and compiled a 45-27 record with a 3.14 ERA and an average of 11 Ks per 9 innings. Over eight seasons, Glasnow has thrown 529 innings with a 3.89 ERA.
If the Dodgers fail to sign Yamamoto, Burnes becomes a more important target. Even if they get Yamamoto, they could still target Burnes and kick the decision of an extension down the road. Burnes could be the bridge until Shohei is pitching in ’25.
It’s not that important, but I like the fact that Glasnow is coming home. He grew up in the Santa Clarita Valley, attended Hart High and presumably rooted for the Dodgers. Perhaps the Dodgers bring Giolito home too.
Perhaps even Yelich, if the epic blockbuster you proposed comes to pass.
Burnes hails from Bakersfield. Close enough.
You mentioned Kershaw wanting one more chance he’s already made his decision about pitching again this year he’s coming back sometime in the summer. Kershaw is baseball smart and as such he’s knows if he signs a contract now a roster space has to be opened up. Once pitchers and catchers report he’ll agree to a contract and go on the 60 day IL. I can’t recall where I read but Kershaw and Ohtani were going to be rehabbing together in Camelback. I’m pretty sure he will finish his career as a Dodger. This team might win 100 games but I think the main goal is to have Buehler, Miller, Glasnow and maybe Yamamoto or Kershaw ready for October baseball.
I like the trade. Glasnow can dominate. Is there risk? Of course, there is always risk.
Some pundits believe the Dodgers will land Yamamoto. I can’t see him taking the Mets money. Based on recent stories, the Yankees may no longer be the favorites. That may or may not mean anything.
If the Dodgers don’t sign Yamamoto, which direction will they turn? They won’t be in on Snell according to reports. Imanaga? Not much buzz there. A trade for Burnes will cost them some serious prospects. The ask will be for Miller or Sheehan. Not happening.
They would probably want to dump some contracts, Yelich would be an obvious choice.
Then there are still free agents. Jordan Montgomery and Lucas Giolito come to mind. Everyone thought Montgomery would return to the Rangers, but no deal yet. Some indication that might not happen for financial reasons. . Giolito is somewhat of a flyer. Upside, yes. Downside, maybe.
But if they ink Yamamoto, the Dodgers are pretty much done as Mark has said with only small adds to the future roster. It has been a winter of fun. Another few days and the roster will begin to take shape. Re-sign a reliever or two, definitely another starter.