Jumping to Conclusions is Not an Olympic Sport
I admit that I jumped to conclusions when I heard that the Dodgers had signed Shohei Ohtani for $700 Million. I thought that was insane. It turned out that I had Myopia! In case you don’t know the meaning of myopia, here it is: “lack of imagination, foresight, or intellectual…
I admit that I jumped to conclusions when I heard that the Dodgers had signed Shohei Ohtani for $700 Million. I thought that was insane. It turned out that I had Myopia! In case you don’t know the meaning of myopia, here it is:
“lack of imagination, foresight, or intellectual insight.”
— Dictionary
Yep, I had no clue what his contract would be. No clue! It turns out that I lacked Vision, Foresight, and Intellectual Insight. The Ohtani signing by the Dodgers was a once-in-a-lifetime thing, and I never saw it coming. I was playing checkers and the Dodgers were playing 3D Chess. Don’t fall into the same trap I did.
The trade for Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot could be a stroke of genius. That is if Glasnow can stay healthy. That has always been the issue with him, but maybe… just maybe, it’s time for the worm to turn. If Glasnow can make 25 starts in 2024, he may very well win the Cy Young Award. No, he’s not an LHP like Blake Snell, but he has much better control… and much better stuff, for that matter now, if he can just stay healthy.
Dodger fans are losing their minds because Manual Margot is part of this deal. The fact of the matter is that Margot will make $10 Million in 2024, and the Rays are sending the Dodgers $4 Million, so his cost is but $6 Million. OK, I am going to tell you what I told you a couple of years ago: James Outman is a 4th or 5th outfielder! He is very good against RHP, but sucks against lefties. I was willing to give him another season to prove otherwise, but evidently, Andrew Friedman was not.
I think Manual Margot, who is a very good (if not elite) centerfielder, but he is not elite in the power department, is a great platoon partner to James Outman. He is a flawed player… as is James Outman. Outman is not nearly as good defensively (he is improving) as Margot, but they make a great LH/RH platoon.
James Outman hit 24 HR last year – Just one was against a LHP. His OPS against RHP was .857 – that is damn good. It was .664 against LHP – he sucked!
Manual Margot, in his career (back to 2016) has a .760 OPS against LHP and a .41 OB%. That’s 100 points higher than Outman! Margot sucks against RHO – his OPS is the same as Outman’s against LHP. MLBTR said this about Margot:
“Margot hits from the right side and should fit in nicely then. He has generally been a subpar hitter overall but does well with the platoon advantage. He’s hit .281/.341/.420 against lefties in his career for a 109 wRC+ compared to an 82 wRC+ and .244/.294/.370 line against righties.
He’s generally been a strong defender in his career. The grades for his glovework slipped a bit in 2023 but he was coming off a 2022 that he mostly missed due to a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee. The Dodgers will likely be hoping that he’s able to post better results now that he’s further removed from that injury, but if he’s due for a part-time role, it won’t be devastating if that doesn’t come to fruition.“
–– MLB Trade Rumors
This is a great platoon, with both players being flawed, but together, they could be close to elite. What’s not to like about that? Come on, man!
Now, they need to find a platoon partner in RF for Jason Heyward. Chris Taylor could fill that role, but now that the Dodgers have Margot, Kike Hernandez may be the odd man out. CT3 will be the “Swiss Army Knife” and play all over the diamond. Is Andy Pages ready for that? I doubt it, but you never know. Someone asked yesterday about Busch and Vargas. Maybe they are platooning in LF, or maybe one gets traded.
If the Dodgers sign Yamamoto – they are done… well, not quite! I do not expect Gavin Lux to be the starting SS. Even if the Dodgers do not trade for Burnes, they might trade Lux and Rojas, along with a prospect for Adames! Then, they are done!
It appears that the Dodgers will platoon in CF and RF, and I do not get why fans would be upset with that. Of course, this is all contingent upon Tyler Glasnow (an LA Native) signing an extension, and one would have to believe that the Dodgers are pretty confident he will. What is also apparent to me is that Dave Roberts has to lead this 2024 version of the Dodgers to a championship. Nothing else is acceptable at this juncture – fair or not!
The LA Times Bill Plaschke has it nailed today. The moron gets it right now and then:
One of those questions was about whether the signing puts more pressure on the Dodgers to win now.
— Bill Plaschke – The LA Times
“It certainly does,” Roberts said. “Us three sitting up here, Mark [Walter] and our staff and our fans, this is what we dream of, to have the highest of expectations.”
Guess who will bear the weight of those increased expectations? Yeah, the guy who spent the afternoon in the shadows.
But it’s clear that the Ohtani signing puts Roberts under the microscope like never before.
The Dodgers have to win a championship sooner than later, with this new increased heat subtly coming from their new virtual co-owner. Ohtani won’t ever do anything to get a manager fired, but he can certainly withhold his support if the Dodgers aren’t winning titles. He went through three managers in six years in Anaheim, and he’s not backing another first-round collapse.
The way he heard the Dodgers, their last 10 years have been a first-round collapse.
“When I had the meeting with them, the ownership group, they said when they look back at the last 10 years, even though they’ve been to the playoffs every single year, won a World Series ring, they consider that a failure,” Ohtani explained through his interpreter. “When I heard that, I knew they were all about winning.”
Does that mean there are people in the organization who look at Roberts’ eight seasons as a failure? Because that’s just crazy. He’s had his postseason missteps, certainly, but lately those have been a result of the front office’s failure to provide adequate pitching, and his consistent summers have constantly put them in a position to win.
Many Dodgers fans think of Roberts as a dugout Brandon Staley. Those fans need to think again.
The Dodgers have won at least 100 games in five of his eight seasons, his .630 winning percentage is the best in baseball history among managers with at least 1,000 games, and he has three World Series appearances and one World Series championship.
With his endless energy and eternal optimism, Roberts is slowly becoming the new Tommy Lasorda, and he should increasingly play a bigger role in the Dodgers’ family portrait.
Despite the two recent first-round collapses, Roberts is coming off his best managerial season yet — he won a division with half the team in bandages — and he’s the perfect person to guide this now volatile machine through the usual messes.
Ohtani has never experienced the major-league madness that can overtake a Dodgers clubhouse located loudly in the middle of an entertainment capital. He’ll soon learn that he’ll not only want Roberts on that wall, he’ll need him on that wall.
Roberts’ specialty is in muting that madness, having led the team through the distractions of Yasiel Puig, the demons of COVID, and the departures of stars such as Corey Seager and veterans such as Justin Turner.”
The only thing that is acceptable in 2024 is a World Series Championship – anything less and Dave Roberts will be the fall guy! True or not…
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Discussion (70)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Just read that Ohtani told Doc he is willing to play left field later in the season if his arm will allow it.
Mark hasn’t put down the pipe he was smoking yesterday.
AF didn’t even want Margot. This was really a straight up trade of Glasnow for Pepiot, but the Rays insisted on dumping Margot on the Dodgers and wanted a younger equivalent of Margot with more potential and that was DeLuca. AF got fleeced in that part of the trade.
The Kike Hernandez infatuation he has is mind-boggling. Outman’s career is 1 year, so let’s look at Kike Hernandez’s stats against LHP last year and compare it to Outman’s 1 year career against LHP since Mark doesn’t want to give Outman more at bats against LHP. Kike Hernandez in 2023 .239/.304/.338/.642 is that an upgrade over Outman against LHP? The answer is clear and yet before AF got Margot, Mark was calling for AF to get Hernandez to platoon with Outman.
So now AF got Mark a shiny new object in Margot (does anyone want Margot?) that he is now advocating for to platoon with Outman just like Hernandez, all the while there’s Heyward that is a PROVEN platoon player. Let’s take a look at Margot’s slashline in 2023 against LHP and compare it to Outman’s 1 year career against LHP. Margot in 2023 .277/.293/.372/.665 Does that look like an upgrade over Outman against LHP? The answer is clear and hell, why not platoon the whole outfield while you’re at it Mark.
Before Mark says look at Hernandez and Margot’s career against LHP instead of just 2023. If you don’t give Outman more time against LHP, then you’re trigger happy with a small sample and should only compare 2023 numbers.
Hell, why don’t we replace all the homegrown position players with players outside of the organization. Mark wants to get rid of Lux for Adames (Why I don’t know) and at one time wanted to trade Outman for another player outside of the organization and would trade Outman in a heartbeat still. Look at who he wants to platoon with Outman, first Kike Hernandez and now his shiny new object Margot.
By the way Mark, who’s going to platoon with Adames against LHP? .227/.308/.404/.712 is Adames career stats against LHP. And yet you don’t like Outman’s career stats against LHP .252/.359/.305.664 that’s .025 BA better than Adames and .048 OPS worse than Adames and Adames has A LOT larger sample size than Outman does.
Enough said.
I don’t get why people are upset with this trade. Glasnow has better stuff than Pepiot and Pepiot is not exactly some iron man throwing 200 innings a year. They both had oblique injuries last year Glasnow returned months earlier than Pepiot. The way the Dodgers use starters if Glasnow goes 130 innings a year he will be a success. All that really matters is can he start game one or two of the playoffs.
All the angst about Margot is much about nothing. He’s a platoon player this year and Pages is the right fielder in 2025. You hear everyone say wait until spring to judge the off season. It’s only December 15th. AF gave 2 controllable average players for a potential number one starter. I’ll trust the front office knows more about Glasnow’s health than we will ever know.
i would rather see dodgers trade for cease than sign japanese right hander. it’s going to be at least a 8 year deal. think one super long deal is enough . are the owners trying to give AF a coronary? Cease makes more sense to me. 2 years left on his contract. with ohtani back, miller , glasnow,a possible return of walker buehler, that’s nice. let’s not forget about sheehan and stone, and knack and gonsolin and dustin may all in 2025! a lot to be thankful for! still need a left fielder! i’m probably trading busch in a deal simply because too much left handed hitters . i hate to see him go because i think in the future he hits wayway better than Vargas.
Some trades make you feel all warm and fuzzy. Never got that feeling with this one. As soon as they mentioned Margot instead of Arozarena I lost all interest. Margot is no where near being a difference maker. I am not impressed with any player who has a career OPS below .700.
Glasnow’s salary is 27 million per year on average, AF could have gotten a true ace in Yamamoto for a few million per year more than Glasnow without trading Pepiot. Yes, Glasnow is not a true ace.
Can AF still get Yamamoto? That’s the question.
Curious: is there any evidence that teams need at least one lefty starter or is it mostly “common knowledge?”
Astros just announced that they are open to listening on trade offer’s regarding Framber Valdez.
I have been wrong many times. I might be wrong this time. But as a fan, like all of you, I am entitled to think and believe what I want to. I believe this is a bad trade. From the many times I have seen him play, both in San Diego and with the Rays, he has not impressed me at all. Glasnow has an ERA in the post-season of 5.72. That is supposed to help them win a title? I think it is all wishful thinking. He was 0-2 against the Dodgers in the 2020 World Series. He gave up 10 earned runs in 9.1 innings. This is your boost for the rotation? And you are paying him 20 mil plus to be a five inning pitcher? He is a RH version of Snell with a little better control. I would rather ride the arms of kids, who are hungry to prove they belong, than the arm of an oft injured huge question mark and pay that guy 20 million plus. I think Deluca is going to out perform Margot.
From Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic:
“It turns out that Ohtani had already been pitching the Dodgers’ next move, as sources told The Athletic that the two-way superstar sent Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow a video trying to woo him to Los Angeles.
In the video, Shohei Ohtani expressed that he wished he could share a rotation with Glasnow this season. Ohtani won’t pitch for the Dodgers in 2024 as he recovers from elbow surgery). “But,” the superstar said, “I want to hit some home runs for you.”
we can only pray that the Glasnow deal pays off. i believe it will but history could show its ugly face again. Friedman isn’t a genius , nor is ownership. the Bauer thing didn’t work. probably no fault of AF. Bauer was,is a weird guy who was probably set up. like Mark says, nothing here, move on. the asking price for Cease and Burnes is getting higher daily . so AF , go get Cease now, PLEASE!
Only one problem. Sasaki has not been posted and may not be until he is 25, which is 3 years away,