I Still Believe!

Just back from a long weekend in LA. It was great to be back “home”, but only for a visit. But what I really liked (and missed) was being with other Dodgers fans. Even after the Friday and Saturday night massacres, almost every Dodger fan I came in contact with was still optimistic. I was in the Dodger Store in Universal City Walk and was watching the game. I watched Joc’s single and Corey’s HR and then headed out to Jimmy Buffet’s Margaritaville restaurant. Wearing my Corey Seager #5 jersey, I got a few high fives. At the restaurant, I turned my phone and saw that the DBacks tied the game, then was happy the Dodgers took the lead back, then demoralized when the DBacks took the lead. I went back to the Dodger store and watched Grandal’s double and Peralta’s error. Peralta looked like the RF version of Andrew Toles in the corners (Sorry MJ; that is what it looked like to me. I am not too big on defensive metrics yet). But Andrew then came through with a single. Great piece of hitting going right back up the middle, not trying to do too much. We left after the Dodgers took the lead following Chris Taylor’s HR, and headed back to the hotel to meet some friends, full of confidence that the Dodgers were going to start the 3 game series with a win. I turn on my phone, saw the game tied up and the bases loaded with nobody out for the DBacks, and I felt sick. When we got back to our room, my wife asked “How did the Dodgers end up.” I turned on my phone, and I just shook my head, and her reply was, “That good, huh?”

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We had a formal dinner Saturday so I had no idea what happened in the Dodger game until after midnight. But when we got down to the lobby this AM, and I was wearing my Dodgers T-shirt and hat, there were at least 15-20 fans saying, “that’s two games, we will get them today, and go on to win the WS this year.” I had one guy come up to me at breakfast and tell me, “don’t worry, the Dodgers will be up after five today, allowing McCarthy to go 7.” But he wasn’t totally correct…he thought Liberatore was going to pitch the 8th and Jansen the 9th for a save.

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But then reality hit and we were back in Sacramento, and I was back to getting stares from those pesky Giant fans.

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I wanted to clarify comments I made about players being called up early June to clear arbitration dates. There are two service dates. One is 172 days which qualifies as one year service. This is important for FA. This is what happened to Kris Bryant. He was called up on April 17, which made 2015 impossible to make 172 days service time. Yes the Cubs timed his debut so that they could get one more year control and lose only two – three weeks of games. The second date is the Super Two arbitration clock. This is the day I was referring to. There is a good explanation of service dates at:

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There were two paragraphs that should explain most if not all of the article:

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“First, they make sure that they don’t call a player up too early in their first season so that they do not accumulate 172 service days in year one. That’s why teams call up top prospects after two or three weeks at the beginning of the season. If you wait until mid-April, you have bought yourself an entire seventh year of service at the cost of two or three weeks of play in year one.

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Second, teams do their best to call up players after the “Super Two” date, which is usually about 60 days into a season. This means if you wait to call up a player until June of their first year, you’ve earned an extra year of team control and have minimized what a player can make in arbitration. It may not be the most labor friendly practice, but it’s the incentive structure the CBA supports.”

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The mid-April to May call up gets the one year of additional control, but it does start the arbitration clock. If the Cubs had waited until June, they would have kept Bryant to three years of arbitration instead of four. His FA would still come after the 2021 season regardless. What do you think Bryant is going to get his first year of arbitration (next year)? It will be considerably more than the $1.05M he is making this year, and will be 5 times more than the Cubs would have paid him pre-arbitration for 2018 had they waited until June to bring him up. Admittedly this is a business decision and not a baseball decision, but MLB is a business.

Shelby Miller has never had TJ.

Boxout7: “Oh, sounds like he has the same complaint as YOU, “Less innings, with less starts”. Only difference is he doesn’t want to pay top dollar on LONG contracts for mediocrity.”

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Dodgerrick: “Sure – so is the best way to get innings out of starters to hire the old and infirm? Seems counterintuitive, doesn’t it? Why are Dodger starters throwing fewer innings since the Brainstrust has taken over? Maybe they don’t think that getting innings out of starters is too important?”

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I guess it could seem “counterintuitive”, but how about this:

1. You see the ridiculous prices teams are paying for that mythical 2017 seven inning starter that everyone is “overvaluing/overpaying for”. Example, Shelby Miller. Sure that 7 inning STUD would be wonderful and VERY valuable, but so often, that expensive acquisition gets hurt or proves to be a MIRAGE.

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2. You remember “The Plan”, compete now, compete later.

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3. You believe you got four potential big time starting pitching studs on the way, Urias, Buehler, White, Alvarez and you don’t want to block them with a long Samardzija/Cueto type contract.

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4. Contrary to what many think, you have a budget and your already stuck with Crawford, Ethier, Guerrero and Gonzalez (Total $70M) and others.

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5. You assess what you got in the organization, Kershaw, McCarthy, Anderson, Bollsinger, Kazmir, Oaks, Stripling, Wood, Stewart, Ryu and others.

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6. You wonder, if you have one ace and potentially eight to ten approximately equal starters, where all of them probably have trouble going through the opposition’s lineup a third time, if you might be better off getting five innings from a starter and two to three more from your long guys (picked from starters 6 – 10) in the bullpen. Oh by the way, your bullpen is very good and deep. How about 5 starters, 4 long guys, 3-4 eighth and ninth inning guys?

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7. You know pitcher injuries are as big of a crapshoot as the playoffs. You also know, someone is always coming out of nowhere to star. Could one or two of all these starters do even better than we hoped for, after all there is strength in numbers? Maybe, considering the cards we were dealt, this depth thing might be good. Is it even possible to have 16 different starters in the regular season and win the division?

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8. You think again about getting a true number #2 and remember #1 and #2 above and Urias!

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It looks like we have two starters. Ryu looks pretty good to me. He needs some more starts to see if his fast ball can get to 90. Urias needs to come up. Oaks and Jurrjens will be next if needed. Wood really is best suited for the pen. Maeda does not look good.

We need to take 3 of 4 from the Giants.

Very nice comeback win today. McCarthy runs his record to 3 and 0 with a 2.25 ERA. Finally some hits with RISP and the pitching the team needs. Even better the Rockies beat up the Giants 8-0 and Samardzija gives up 7 ER in 5.1 IP. Let’s take some momentum into SF and take a series.

Heck, Romo needed that. Great movement on the frisbee slider, great change up.

McCarthy was awesome today. Let’s hope to God he’s found his swag from his time as a Yankee. We need it.

It’s still very early. I”m not worried at all; just frustrated by bad play. The bullpen has been great minus the last 2 outings, which has totally screwed up their ERA. Who cares. We all know they’ve been great for us.

Oh, and that pathetic waste of a 2nd round pick Mitchell White, who we could’ve taken 20 rounds later, went 4.2ip, 3 hits, 1run, 2bb, 4k. Season ERA is 2.35

Well, there is 7 by McCarthy! I would have Urias take Maeda’s spot next time and move Maeda back to #5.

Great 5th inning for the Dodgers: after McCarthy and Joc draw walks 4 straight hits with RISP-2B by Seager, 1B by Turner, 2B by AGon and HR by Grandal. Now let’s make those 6 runs stand up! McCarthy has settled down after a shaky 1st inning.

We’re back!!!

Good for A-Gon! He needed that. The Dodgers needed that!

I like today’s lineup except put Puig in the 2 hole. McCarthy got taken deep by Goldschmidt like a lot of other pitchers. Good to see he walked him 2nd time up unlike what Ryu did with Arenado a few games back. 5 runs like the last 2 games might get it done today but the bats are quiet so far.

I agree with Mark that Urias is special and advanced for his age. He needed to learn the ML strike zone is not the same as AAA and that ML hitters feast on mistakes. He needs to challenge hitters with his stuff and not nibble leading to high pitch counts. He could be the #2 starter by seasons end.

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Not sure what pushing Maeda back a day really does but Honeycutt will be working on things with him this week. They want him to keep his fastball down and use a cutter more, does Jansen have some tips?

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Good move calling up Liberatore with Dayton on the DL and Wood in the rotation they were short a LHP in the BP. He pitched well last year before his injury and was pitching well at OKC. Eibner was an afterthought off the bench anyway, rather have the extra arm right now.

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I guarantee the management sees the same things we see and will be proactive to address what they can and sooner, not later. That does not mean they will panic and do something foolish. Balancing the present and the future of the team is something they have done very well so far.

MJ

I agree with you totally on Hill. It was a bad trade and another bad decision to sign him. He was 37 when they sign him to 3 years.

There are 5 decisions I did not like and still do not. They are SVS, Hill, Utley, Romo and Hatcher. I just think we had better choices. I think Bellinger, Taylor, Segedin, Urias, and Libatore should of been on team out of ST.

Taylor should get all of the playing time at second for 10 days. He is hot. It will not happen. Sabermetrics or what in the hell you call them. Did you see any platooning with Arizona and Colorado?

There are some bad decisions being made.

One only has to look at Friedman’s background to know who “overvalued” means. Consider his background in the financial markets. When a stock with a current price that is not justified by its earnings outlook or price/earnings (P/E) ratio, it is called “overvalued” and therefore, is expected to drop in price. That is what he means. ”

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So, he’s really a stock analyst so he has a purely economic view of what “overvalued” means? Sort of makes the point that some of us have made, doesn’t it? He’s not a baseball guy – right?

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“Oh, sounds like he has the same complaint as YOU, “Less innings, with less starts”. Only difference is he doesn’t want to pay top dollar on LONG contracts for mediocrity.”

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Sure – so is the best way to get innings out of starters to hire the old and infirm? Seems counterintuitive, doesn’t it? Why are Dodger starters throwing fewer innings since the Brainstrust has taken over? Maybe they don’t think that getting innings out of starters is too important?

Son of a gun, the damn beer isn’t even cold yet and we are already down 2-0 in the first. This is getting comical. I know this will all pass, but let’s face it guys, we need to get the hell out of Arizona, these guys are on fire right now! We’ll get them next month when it’s their turn in the fish barrel. Let everyone kick that Dodger Dog while they can, because we WILL be back! Just going through a thang right now! On to Bagdad by the Bay(Dodgerrick you are bringing tears of laughter to my eyes, that is a frigging hilarious new Giant name! Damn, that’s just funny, I don’t care who ya are!) Makes the weekend not so bad. Good one, buddy.

I hope Urias can consistently go 6 innings. That would be a big improvement from what we are seeing here early on.

I don’t know about Urias. I hope he is a stud. He is another pitcher who doesn’t go deep into games. His pitch count gets up there pretty quick. I believe the biggest mistake faz has made over the last couple of years is not having a decent starter at the 3 or 4 spot. Maybe if kazmir McCarthy or Ryu were off the do if could have happened or if Urias was further along. None of these plus Anderson were the answer. On the other hand if faz hadn’t acquired hill we would never have beaten Washington. I forgot about maeda who was also terrible. Probably thought one of these could produce but they didn’t. Our 3 and 4 starters have killed us in the playoffs the last 4 years(not all faz)

Lineup:

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1. Pederson CF

2. Seager SS

3. Turner 3B

4. Gonzo 1B

5. Grandal C

6. Toles LF

7. Puig RF

8. Utley 2B

9. McCarthy P

DODGERS RECALL LIBERATORE

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LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers today recalled left-handed pitcher Adam Liberatore from Triple-A Oklahoma City and optioned outfielder Brett Eibner to OKC.

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Liberatore, 29, tossed scoreless relief in five of six games at Triple-A, going 0-1 with a 1.59 ERA and limiting opposing hitters to a .238 batting average with a 0.88 WHIP. In two big league seasons with the Dodgers in 2015-16, Liberatore has gone 4-4 with a 3.73 ERA in 97 games, including a 2-2 mark with a 3.38 ERA in 58 appearances last year.

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Eibner, who was recalled on Wednesday, went 1-for-5 during his three-game stint with the Dodgers.

Mark:

So, if you look at the projected SP coming in years 2017, 2018, 2019, the stability of Dodger pitching, and the team overall consistency is yet future. I have been saying that this team is a year away, those projected starters are a big part of that, along with parting ways with players past their prime, or those performing poorly, and in some cases multiple seasons of poor.

The frustration is most fans want success now (myself included), but FAZ’s actions highlight the fact that they will not mortgage the farm and jepordize the future that is so close. To FAZ the future SP arms have a higher return on investment (multiple years), than an older FA signing or trade for a #2 SP (the price tag on those is exorbitant). FAZ will stay the course, despite the screams to do otherwise.

Will they turn it around this season? Probably. Will they correct the hitting woes against LH pitchers? Probably not; what really have they done to address the problem? Bringing in an pinch hitting, aged “lefty killer” is not the answer. This problem is systemic, and begs for a proper solution.

Will they make the WS this year; possible, but not very probable – too many holes that other teams easily exploit.

The future is 2018 and beyond……

Idahoal: “ If Joc cannot hit lefties, then trade him. Did Robinson and Campy hit lefties and righties. They sure did.”

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Idahoal, Deep breaths!!! I wonder what kind of contract Robinson and Campy would get today? Joc is what he is, young cheap ($555,000) outfielder who has been known to mash righties and run down lots of fly balls. So he can’t hit lefties, platoon him. Can’t he still have some value? If not, who could they trade him to? Better to play Joc against righties, platoon him against lefties, giving us a potential stud pinch hitter on those days than trading him!!

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At least until someone better comes along.

That “Bernard Posner” guy is me. And that’s proof positive I haven’t posted in a long time. Also, I usually do this on a computer, not my iPhone.

Haven’t posted in ages, and probably will only do so periodically. Basically agree with Mark’s premise that it’s early. Mark, believe you’ve said in the past that it’s not so much how you begin, it’s how you finish. And as I have said in the past, you’re never as good as you look when you’re at your best, nor as bad as you look when you’re at your worst.

I doubt if the Dodgers will get buried in the standings, and I’m confident that they have the internal depth to strengthen the team via call-ups and/or trades.

Dodgerrick: “This is what concerns me as a Dodger fan. For instance, when Friedman says that starting pitching is overvalued, does he mean overprices or less important than others think? Both meanings are possible. Maybe both? In trying to ferret out his meaning, look at his actions – see who he has signed. McCarthy, Anderson, Kazmir, Maeda, Hill. He has traded for Hill and Wood. Does this assemblage tell you that he thinks that starting pitching is important? Overpriced? Both?”

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How about we start by looking at what he said:

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Andrew Friedman: “Starting pitching has become the most overvalued in the industry because, outside of the aces, they are pitching less innings, with less starts as more depth is needed,” Friedman said. “We have a tremendous amount of depth on the prospect side and at the major league end by design. Quantity is just as important as quality in today’s baseball.”

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Oh, sounds like he has the same complaint as YOU, “Less innings, with less starts”. Only difference is he doesn’t want to pay top dollar on LONG contracts for mediocrity.

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It seems like your argument is, do it the “Baghdad by the Bay” way. Pay top dollar in cash or prospects for starters who can go 6 innings plus. Lets see how that theory is working out?

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Cueto, 4 starts, 24 innings, 5.25 ERA, $130M/6yr contract with another five years to go.

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Samardzija, 3 starts, 19 innings, 6.16 ERA, $90M/5yr contract with another 4 years to go.

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Matt Moore, 4 starts, 23 innings, 5.87 ERA, Signed through 2017 with options for 2018 and 2019 at around $10M/season. Player cost, Duffy, and top prospects Fox and Santos.

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Looks like those pitchers are averaging an extra out or two, is it a difference maker? What is the current betting line on Cueto opting out after 2017? Did the midgets blow all their money on overvalued starters, so they couldn’t afford a decent bullpen? Do the midgets wish they had lots of cheap depth that could give them similar production? What say you?