Halfway To A Parade ?
Halfway through the year and some things are clear, while others, not so much. The Dodgers are clearly the class of the NL if not all of MLB. The Dodgers are 3.5 games better than the Cubs and 4.0 games better than the Padres. If the season were to end today, the three division champions would be: Dodgers Cubs Braves 2nd Place Teams would be: Padres Cardinals Marlins Current Wild
Halfway through the year and some things are clear, while others, not so much. The Dodgers are clearly the class of the NL if not all of MLB. The Dodgers are 3.5 games better than the Cubs and 4.0 games better than the Padres. If the season were to end today, the three division champions would be:
- Dodgers
- Cubs
- Braves
2nd Place Teams would be:
- Padres
- Cardinals
- Marlins
Current Wild Card teams are both in the NL West; Colorado (.483) and San Francisco (.467). Then it gets interesting:
- Mets 0 GB (.462)
- Brewers .5 GB (.444)
- DBacks 1.0 GB (.433)
- Nationals 1.0 GB (.423)
- Phillies 1.0 GB (.417)
- Reds 1.5 GB (.407)
Even Pittsburgh after beating the Brewers three straight are only 4.0 GB. But a lot of games to make up and too many teams to climb, so they would look to be the only NL team that is seemingly not in contention for the playoffs. The one team that many hope might be a potential LAD trading partner is the Cincinnati Reds. They are 1.5 game back of the last wild card team. They play 3 more with the Brewers, followed by 4 with the Cubs all before the August 31 trade deadline. If Trevor Bauer becomes available, it will be then. If the Reds are within shouting distance of the final WC team, they will probably stand pat.
Looking at the Pirates roster, Keone Kela would have been someone of interest, but he left his last game due to forearm tightness, which never sounds good. The only other pitcher that interests me on the Pirates would be 27 year old RHP Chad Kuhl. Another TJ surgery reclamation, who seems to be pitching well this year (only 19 innings) after missing all of 2019 and injured for much of 2018, so he does not appear to be ready for a heavy playoff load for this year. Plus Pittsburgh will probably want to keep Kuhl as a mainstay for the 2021 rotation. Because of the tightness of the races, most of the teams are in need of pitching so there is no reason to look at their rosters. However, if the Rockies wanted to make Kyle Freeland available, I think AF would take their call. Very remote chance of that.
One other item I found interesting. Last year at the deadline, the Giants got very hot and foolishly thought they had a chance at the playoffs. They held on to MadBum and Will Smith when they could have traded for multiple prospects for both. This year, they are currently on a 6 game win streak entering a three game series at home against LAD followed with three against the DBacks in Phoenix. They may have the same dilemma with Kevin Gausman and perhaps Donovan Solano.
The AL race is a little more clear. If the season ended today, the three division champions would be:
- NYY
- Minnesota
- Oakland
2nd Place Teams would be:
- Tampa Bay
- Chicago White Sox/Cleveland
- Houston
Current Wild Card teams are either Cleveland or the White Sox (.586) and then Toronto (.519).
Remaining teams:
- Baltimore .5 GB (.500)
- Detroit 3.0 GB (.407)
- Texas 3.5 GB (.393)
- KC 4.0 GB (.379)
- Seattle 4.5 GB (.367)
- Boston 6.0 GB (.310)
- Angels 6.5 GB (.300)
Cleveland is right in the mix for the playoffs so the likelihood they will be moving any of their regulars is extremely remote. Thus far, the Cleveland players are in no hurry to let Clevinger or Plesac back on the team, and they could use both of them. I am guessing that if either pitch again this year, it will be with Cleveland.
There is some talk that the Dodgers might be interested in Lance Lynn. He had another quality start on Monday (7 leading MLB), and is scheduled to go Saturday when the Dodgers travel to Texas. Lynn is now 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA. I do not know if AF is allowed to travel with the team, but I am guessing that he would love to see Lynn pitch live to properly gauge his interest. He is an innings eater, but I do not think that is critical for LAD. I do think Lynn would help the team in 2020, but with David Price ready to go in 2021, he might block May or Gonsolin for a rotation spot. At $10MM AAV, I would not be as concerned with the cost. Win this year, and worry about next year next year. At $10MM, he could be very moveable to a team needing another starter. It will take a couple of Top 30’s. Yu Darvish as a rental cost 3 top 30 prospects.
LAA does not have a lot, but they are going to move Dylan Bundy. Bundy is having a very good year with the Angels and is only 27. He is arb eligible for 2021 and becomes a FA in 2022. He could help this year. Again he could be moved after the season if it means blocking May or Gonsolin (or White or Gray).
I did not see any relievers that really intrigued me from any of the teams that look to be sellers. But if there is one, AF is going to find him.
I mentioned it the other day, and I still think that it is something that AF should consider, and that is Boston’s JD Martinez. As will be chronicled below, the Dodgers are pitiful against LHP, and need that big RH bat. Boston would have to throw in cash, but JDM would be a big help against any LHP the Dodgers see in the playoffs. The Dodgers have a great opportunity to win it all this year, and if that means spending $$$ to get the bat, then so be it.
Offense:
OPS:
- NYY – .819
- CWS – .807
- LAD – .807
- Padres – .800
BA – LAD #11 (.250); Padres #16 (.245)
OBP – LAD #7 (.330); Padres #6 (.331)
SLG – LAD #3 (.474); Padres #4 (.468)
HR – Dodgers #1 (59); Padres and CWS #2 (55)
RBI – Dodgers #1 (171); Padres #2 (163)
Run Differential – LAD #1 (+79); Minnesota #2 (+41)
RISP w/2 outs – LAD #1 .321/.459/.632/1.091 – next closest in BA is Atlanta at .279 and next closest in OPS is Oakland at .890.
RISP – LAD #1 .300/.405/.570/.975 – next closest in BA is Washington at .299 and next closest in OPS are the Padres at .926
Vs LHP – Dodgers are #25 in OPS at .645
Vs RHP – Dodgers are #1 in OPS at .866
RISP w/2 outs (Individuals) – Batting Average and OPS
- Mookie – 12 AB – .500/1.622 – 9 RBI
- Seager – 17 AB – .471/1.382 – 12 RBI
- Barnes – 7 AB – .429/.857
- Pollock – 5 AB – .400/1.771
- Kike’ – 13 AB – .385/1.462
- Belli – 11 AB – .182/.539
- Muncy – 7 AB – .143/.643
Against LHP:
- Beaty – 5 AB – .400/.500/.600/1.100
- Barnes – 14 B – .357/.400/.357/.757
- Pollock – 29 AB – .310/.300/.552/.852
- Rios – 8 AB – .250/.250/.750/1.000
- JT – 26 AB – .231/.417/.269/.686
- Kike’ – 24 AB – .208/.240/.375/.615
Everyone else < .200 BA; Bottom 4:
- Belli – 40 AB .175
- Joc – 6 AB – .167
- Mookie – 30 AB – .133 (4 hits all year against LHP)
- Smith – 9 AB – .111
Pitching:
Overall ERA:
- LAD #1 – 2.65
- Cleveland #2 – 2.88
Overall WHIP:
- Cleveland #1 – 1.03
- LAD #2 – 1.04
Starter ERA:
- Cleveland #1 – 2.96
- LAD #2 – 3.34
Starter WHIP:
- Cleveland #1 – 1.03
- LAD #5 – 1.11
Reliever ERA:
- LAD #1 – 1.82
- Oakland #2 – 2.01
Reliever WHIP:
- LAD #1 – 0.96
- St. Louis #2 – 1.01
The bullpen was supposed to be a weakness for LAD and a strength for the Padres. It has turned out to be a huge strength for LAD. The Padres were #17 in WHIP at 1.35 and have already blown 8 saves in 17 opportunities. LAD has blown 3 in 11 opportunities.
Something to consider – In the NL, LHSP:
- Padres – MacKenzie Gore (He will be there)
- SFG – Tyler Anderson
- DBacks – Robbie Ray
- Colorado – Kyle Freeland
- Cubs – Jon Lester
- St. Louis – Kwang Hyun Kim
- Cincinnati – No LHSP
- Milwaukee – Brett Anderson
- Atlanta (2) – Max Fried and Robbie Erlin
- Miami – Daniel Castano
- Washington – Patrick Corbin
- Philadelphia – No LHSP
- NYM (2) – Steven Matz and David Peterson
Of course, Washington has Max Scherzer, NYM has Jacob de Grom.
In addition to the Lance Lynn notes above, updates from other Monday games:
Kenta Maeda won his 4th game, allowing 1 run over 5 IP against Cleveland. Kenta has averaged 6 IP/start.
Trevor Bauer gave up 4 runs over 6.1 IP and lost for the 1st time in 2020, losing to Milwaukee and Brett Anderson.
The Rockies ended their 7 game losing streak by beating Arizona who now has lost 6 in a row.
The Angels lost again for the 21st time. They could be the worst team in MLB, with very little help in the MiLB. What a waste for Mike Trout. I hope Rendon enjoys Anaheim.
Dodger odds to make the playoffs are now at 99.9%.
At the halfway mark, the Dodgers are in very good shape. There are a couple of weaknesses that can be addressed, but AF is not going to overpay in prospect capital. But I would hate for $$$ to be an obstacle for this year.
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Discussion (120)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Wow, I never saw JD Martinez as an option, but now that you mentioned him, he seems perfect to me, and I don’t think Boston wants to ask too much for him. An experienced and powerful right-handed batter, plus a good starting pitcher would be the only thing it takes, enough waiting, make it possible this year!
But if you have to decide between one or the other, I would go for the pitcher. I know it’s crazy, but could Sonny Gray be available, along with Trevor Bauer?
With a 28 man roster the hooks will be quick in the postseason. If the bullpen continues to excel I’m good with our starters. AF has gone after the rentals at the deadline so maybe Bauer gets a look. I don’t love Lynn. Not enough innings this year from a guy who throws one pitch for me to forget his more recent years and block a young kid with more talent. Kela has been a clubhouse cancer.
~
Bellinger and Muncy both hit lefties well last year. Betts will improve so will Smith’s numbers. If Cody and Max’s numbers vs lefties don’t improve I would hate to count on Kike to be the difference maker. JDM could be an interesting target.
JD Martinez is off to a slow start this season, hitting .228 with 3 HR. I am assuming he is just not energized due to being on a horrid team. He could be re-energized going to the Dodgers. He is owed $19.3 million in 2021 (after which he can opt-out, but won’t) and $19.3 million in 2022. Friedman and Bloom have a relationship, so I am sure they could work something out. Friedman may even be willing to take on the salary without giving up a top prospect… and Boston might do it.
Imagine:
1. Betts RF (R)
2. Seager SS (L)
3. Turner 3B (R)
4. Bellinger CF (L)
5. Martinez DH (R)
6. Muncy 1B (L)
7. LF (Pederson, Reks, Raley, Beaty, Rios, Taylor… pick ’em) (R-L)
8. Smith C (R)
9. Lux/Kike 2B (L-R)
I cannot think of a reason why Gavin Lux won’t get the call soon. He made a statement last night!
I thought Bundy would do well if/when he moved on to another team. He is on a very low cost contract. Another O’s pitcher who I really like is Mycahl Givens who has yet to allow a run (11.2 IP; 16 K’s) out of the bullpen. Even if healthy I would pass on Keone Kela, just too many clubhouse confrontations in his career with teammates and coaches, both in Texas and Pittsburgh.
Although I truly believe the Dodgers are the best team in baseball right now you have to be careful when comparing them to teams they don’t play. some other team might not have as good a record but they might be playing against better teams.
I don’t think we need another starting pitcher but Martinez as a right fielder/ dh is a reasonable consideration.
Re the Angels, since their problem is pitching they should keep Bundy and purchase more pitching. But Moreno just wants hitters and big contracts and will not make the right move to get his team into contention. They will not achieve continued success until Moreno sells the team.
Good read Jeff, plenty to ponder.
Also hadn’t given JDM much thought, but you’ve got me interested now.
I said last year when he signed that contract extension, that I couldn’t understand what Trout’s thinking was?
He woulda got paid anywhere, as and if he loves Anaheim as much as Rendon, why not tell his Agent to get him a deal with the Dodgers?
That way he contends every year, whilst living in the same house.
There can’t be much worse than being out of the Pennant Race by the halfway stage every year, while having to haul your ass backwards and forwards across the US?
Surely he can’t be considered one of the all time greats if he has no Post Season figures to his name?
On another note, and I must’ve forgotten this until I read it earlier, Yasiel Puig is the Dodger all time Post Season appearance holder with 86.
I would never have guessed that.
These trade candidates mentioned above are having nice years. But when we look at the first of the playoffs in 2020, it’s a 3 game series (where ANYTHING) can happen.
So if we assume Buehler and Kersh go in games 1 and 2, who starts that potential crucial game 3? Do we trust that Bundy or Lynn are lockdown game 3 playoff starters? Are they really that much better than May Urias etc? Now granted in a Game 3, we’d only need 3-4 ip from that starter, but you’d hope its 3-4 good innings, and not 3-4 innings of 3 runs.
I say if you can’t get a dominant arm who WILL start a playoff game, don’t waste your time (or money or prospects). As AC said, we don’t need innings eaters. We need dominant. Perhaps May is that Fernando like rookie who steps up big time. But we won’t know until it happens and it will be nerve wracking to see him try proving how great he is in a must win game 3.
Urias will be the game three starter. It’s gonna click for him in the second half. And he has playoff experience
I’m becoming more confident in Dustin May’s ability to start a game 3 playoff game. For one, his two seam fastball is filthy at times. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dodgers-dustin-may-is-dazzling/
…but I’m also impressed with his intensity and his competitive drive when on the mound. I think that can get him through any playoff pressure situations. Lynn is pitching well, but he’s relatively cheap at 10 AAV. The Rangers might just hold on to him in case they have a better year next year.
JD Martinez if a good idea, but I wouldn’t overpay. He’s now 33 and his production began to taper off and drop last year. He was a late bloomer, and it could just be he’s an early decliner.
In all seriousness, is there anyone, anywhere who thinks baseball is more fun to watch now than before?
Just to expand on this new, 3 game series to start the playoffs where 1 seed plays 8 seed. Right now, we’d be the 1 seed, playing 3 games, at home, vs the 8 seed, who right now is the NY Mets.
It’s very very conceivable that Jacob deGrom could shut us down in Game 1, out dueling Walker Buehler. Then we have 2 must wins at home. And Game 2 is Kershaw, who already doesn’t do well in October pressure. Then what? This 1st round is really not a sure thing whatsoever.
All I remember about Martinez is a 4 homer game he had against the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium, the only player ever to do that there, and he helped Boston beat us in the World Series. As for a pitcher, they need one more experienced arms. Granted, Urias, May, and Gonsolin have nasty stuff. But they are not pitching against many powerhouse offenses either. Bauer had a bad game last night, every pitcher does. But he would be cheaper than Lynn. But I am also of the mind that Ol Andy is gonna dance with the gal he brought to the barn. He has tweaked at the deadline more than he has dived in. Heck, maybe he thinks they need another lefty reliever? SD lost Yates for the year. Kela is hurt, again. DC is fast falling out of contention, and Corbin is not pitching very well. There is a consensus that since he is a free agent Az might move Ray. Next year I really believe that their main rival for division supremacy is going to be the Padres. Their staff already gives the Dodgers fits.
Not impressed with the new playoff format either, would hate to see them continue this type of format beyond this year.
Not sure about JD Martinez, satisfied with AJ Pollock. A top flight pitcher might make more sense, should be a couple on the market, but lots of competition. Maybe the Dodgers just stand still.
Of course, Andrew Friedman will not stand still if there is an opportunity to come away with a jackpot or even improve the bullpen or come up with somebody who rakes against lefties.
Interesting trade deadline.
In a somewhat paradoxical way, this is almost a dream season for the MLB owners, except of course for the much shortened schedule. But look, everyone is in contention for the playoffs! Well, that will not boost attendance, because there is no attendance. But it is pretty ridiculous to have a season where everything is compacted, so anybody can get in the playoffs, and then stick in a best of three opening series where any #8 with one top starter, or a little luck, can beat the #1. We want to win the title, and most of us will contend that if we do, it is a legitimate title to be prized. But if some mediocre club which won 30 games manages to take advantage of the playoff format to win, I don’t think that most would see this as anything but a flimsy construct of a season. Only if the Dodgers or Yankees or maybe A’s or Twins win the title, would it gain some decent legitimacy as a reasonable test of who is the best team in that year.
MLB had some interesting trade ideas. They also had a list of the moves they felt all the teams would make, and the only move they had the Dodgers making was a trade for Lynn. SD is down both Pomeranz and Yates.. They Had Clevenger going back to the Angels for a couple of thier outfielders, and the Cubs giving up on Kimbrel. They also think that the Brewers will trade Hader. Not that any of this happens. But they did have some interesting ideas. I have an alternate solution for a DH< rather than Martinez. How about Teoscar Hernandez of the Blue Jays? Guy is hitting .294, with 10 dingers, 4 of which he has off of lefty's. Toronto might be induced to move him since they want to keep their young infield core and have some outfielders they might want to move. Hernandez is 27. Just floating stuff out there.
I like it bear. We need a rh dh against lefties
Going back to the scrimmage game yesterday it was fun watching the kids play. Watching on you tube there was no play by play or lineup card I could see or hear. Most of the players were 90 something.
Interesting watching Graterol pitch with the two coaches behind him. Looked like they were working on his breaking pitches.
McKinstry made a great catch coming from deep SS to the side of the mound. Very athletic (Kikeish)
Another play in left, left fielder came full speed to shallow left went into a slide and caught the ball right by his hip. Great catch!
Anyone know who the left fielder were ?
Thanks Jeff. I look forward to see him playing in the majors in near future I hope.
If only he was a right handed bat!
The Braves have announced that they are promoting highly touted RHSP Ian Anderson. He will make his ML debut tonight. Should be fun for him as he gets to square off against Gerrit Cole and NYY. This has been a fun season getting to see so many of the young guns make their debut this season.
Other top pitching prospects making their debuts this year are:
Miami – Sixto Sanchez
Toronto – Nate Pearson
San Diego – Luis Patino
Royals – Brady Singer
Detroit – Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal (Is Matt Manning next?)
A’s – Jesus Luzardo (okay technically he made his debut last year, but to stay with the theme…).
MacKenzie Gore (SD) will undoubtedly be called up.
AJ Puk (A’s) – If his shoulder allows, he could also make his debut
Another fun game I intend to follow along with is Rich Hill and the Twins against Shane Bieber and the Indians.
In a game that would have been fun to watch in 2013 is Matt Harvey (Royals) vs Adam Wainwright (Cardinals).
Let’s see what Fernando Tatis, Jr. and Padres can do against the soft throwing lefty, Marco Gonzalez. I am fairly sure that Chris Paddack will not have too much trouble with the Seattle offense. But one could hope.
Johnny Cueto figures to hang tough with the Dodgers as he normally does. He also figures to go long as his last three starts have gone 93 pitches, 104 pitches, and 112 pitches. And let’s hope that Julio Urias can last more than 4 innings before he reaches 90 pitches.
I, too, really enjoyed watching the scrimmage game yesterday. It was exciting to see. Wish I had seen more of it than I was able to. Impressed with Lux and Miller. Can not wait to see them next year whether it is with the minors or majors. Thank you for the article, AC.
Today is the anniversary of ” The Trade”. I liked it, there were some who did not. But it cemented the idea that Guggenheim wanted a winner in LA and were willing to spend for it. After the McCheapo years, it was refreshing.
Good article in The Athletic, basically about how the Dodgers used analytics to resurrect Jake McGee’s career!
Open on theathletic.comhttps://theathletic.com/2018314/2020/08/24/what-dodgers-know-jake-mcgee-rockies/?source=dailyemailSometimes analytics put the fun back in baseball.
I haven’t checked who all are available to trade for, but the Dodgers are in the top 3 in both team offense and team pitching according to the stats I look at. That’s without much from Bellinger and Muncy and practically nothing from Pederson. I expect them to come around.
I know the bullpen has been good, but looking at career stats including splits I’m nervous and I’m even more nervous because the bullpen is where Doc has the most hands on. Remember last postseason? Yes the hitting wasn’t good in the postseason (And I blame Doc partly for choosing who played and who didn’t) but ultimately Doc and the bullpen eliminated the team from the playoffs.
I don’t know who is available via trade, but I’d like to see the powers that be trade for at least 1 dominate reliever if not 2.
As far as our starting pitching, if you are looking for a #3 starter, look no further than the guy that I call underrated, Tony Gonsolin.
Today vs Cueto:
Mookie
Seager
JT
Belly
Muncy
Pollock (DH)
Joc
Kike
Smith
Urias