Halfway To A Parade ?
Halfway through the year and some things are clear, while others, not so much. The Dodgers are clearly the class of the NL if not all of MLB. The Dodgers are 3.5 games better than the Cubs and 4.0 games better than the Padres. If the season were to end today, the three division champions would be: Dodgers Cubs Braves 2nd Place Teams would be: Padres Cardinals Marlins Current Wild
Halfway through the year and some things are clear, while others, not so much. The Dodgers are clearly the class of the NL if not all of MLB. The Dodgers are 3.5 games better than the Cubs and 4.0 games better than the Padres. If the season were to end today, the three division champions would be:
- Dodgers
- Cubs
- Braves
2nd Place Teams would be:
- Padres
- Cardinals
- Marlins
Current Wild Card teams are both in the NL West; Colorado (.483) and San Francisco (.467). Then it gets interesting:
- Mets 0 GB (.462)
- Brewers .5 GB (.444)
- DBacks 1.0 GB (.433)
- Nationals 1.0 GB (.423)
- Phillies 1.0 GB (.417)
- Reds 1.5 GB (.407)
Even Pittsburgh after beating the Brewers three straight are only 4.0 GB. But a lot of games to make up and too many teams to climb, so they would look to be the only NL team that is seemingly not in contention for the playoffs. The one team that many hope might be a potential LAD trading partner is the Cincinnati Reds. They are 1.5 game back of the last wild card team. They play 3 more with the Brewers, followed by 4 with the Cubs all before the August 31 trade deadline. If Trevor Bauer becomes available, it will be then. If the Reds are within shouting distance of the final WC team, they will probably stand pat.
Looking at the Pirates roster, Keone Kela would have been someone of interest, but he left his last game due to forearm tightness, which never sounds good. The only other pitcher that interests me on the Pirates would be 27 year old RHP Chad Kuhl. Another TJ surgery reclamation, who seems to be pitching well this year (only 19 innings) after missing all of 2019 and injured for much of 2018, so he does not appear to be ready for a heavy playoff load for this year. Plus Pittsburgh will probably want to keep Kuhl as a mainstay for the 2021 rotation. Because of the tightness of the races, most of the teams are in need of pitching so there is no reason to look at their rosters. However, if the Rockies wanted to make Kyle Freeland available, I think AF would take their call. Very remote chance of that.
One other item I found interesting. Last year at the deadline, the Giants got very hot and foolishly thought they had a chance at the playoffs. They held on to MadBum and Will Smith when they could have traded for multiple prospects for both. This year, they are currently on a 6 game win streak entering a three game series at home against LAD followed with three against the DBacks in Phoenix. They may have the same dilemma with Kevin Gausman and perhaps Donovan Solano.
The AL race is a little more clear. If the season ended today, the three division champions would be:
- NYY
- Minnesota
- Oakland
2nd Place Teams would be:
- Tampa Bay
- Chicago White Sox/Cleveland
- Houston
Current Wild Card teams are either Cleveland or the White Sox (.586) and then Toronto (.519).
Remaining teams:
- Baltimore .5 GB (.500)
- Detroit 3.0 GB (.407)
- Texas 3.5 GB (.393)
- KC 4.0 GB (.379)
- Seattle 4.5 GB (.367)
- Boston 6.0 GB (.310)
- Angels 6.5 GB (.300)
Cleveland is right in the mix for the playoffs so the likelihood they will be moving any of their regulars is extremely remote. Thus far, the Cleveland players are in no hurry to let Clevinger or Plesac back on the team, and they could use both of them. I am guessing that if either pitch again this year, it will be with Cleveland.
There is some talk that the Dodgers might be interested in Lance Lynn. He had another quality start on Monday (7 leading MLB), and is scheduled to go Saturday when the Dodgers travel to Texas. Lynn is now 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA. I do not know if AF is allowed to travel with the team, but I am guessing that he would love to see Lynn pitch live to properly gauge his interest. He is an innings eater, but I do not think that is critical for LAD. I do think Lynn would help the team in 2020, but with David Price ready to go in 2021, he might block May or Gonsolin for a rotation spot. At $10MM AAV, I would not be as concerned with the cost. Win this year, and worry about next year next year. At $10MM, he could be very moveable to a team needing another starter. It will take a couple of Top 30’s. Yu Darvish as a rental cost 3 top 30 prospects.
LAA does not have a lot, but they are going to move Dylan Bundy. Bundy is having a very good year with the Angels and is only 27. He is arb eligible for 2021 and becomes a FA in 2022. He could help this year. Again he could be moved after the season if it means blocking May or Gonsolin (or White or Gray).
I did not see any relievers that really intrigued me from any of the teams that look to be sellers. But if there is one, AF is going to find him.
I mentioned it the other day, and I still think that it is something that AF should consider, and that is Boston’s JD Martinez. As will be chronicled below, the Dodgers are pitiful against LHP, and need that big RH bat. Boston would have to throw in cash, but JDM would be a big help against any LHP the Dodgers see in the playoffs. The Dodgers have a great opportunity to win it all this year, and if that means spending $$$ to get the bat, then so be it.
Offense:
OPS:
- NYY – .819
- CWS – .807
- LAD – .807
- Padres – .800
BA – LAD #11 (.250); Padres #16 (.245)
OBP – LAD #7 (.330); Padres #6 (.331)
SLG – LAD #3 (.474); Padres #4 (.468)
HR – Dodgers #1 (59); Padres and CWS #2 (55)
RBI – Dodgers #1 (171); Padres #2 (163)
Run Differential – LAD #1 (+79); Minnesota #2 (+41)
RISP w/2 outs – LAD #1 .321/.459/.632/1.091 – next closest in BA is Atlanta at .279 and next closest in OPS is Oakland at .890.
RISP – LAD #1 .300/.405/.570/.975 – next closest in BA is Washington at .299 and next closest in OPS are the Padres at .926
Vs LHP – Dodgers are #25 in OPS at .645
Vs RHP – Dodgers are #1 in OPS at .866
RISP w/2 outs (Individuals) – Batting Average and OPS
- Mookie – 12 AB – .500/1.622 – 9 RBI
- Seager – 17 AB – .471/1.382 – 12 RBI
- Barnes – 7 AB – .429/.857
- Pollock – 5 AB – .400/1.771
- Kike’ – 13 AB – .385/1.462
- Belli – 11 AB – .182/.539
- Muncy – 7 AB – .143/.643
Against LHP:
- Beaty – 5 AB – .400/.500/.600/1.100
- Barnes – 14 B – .357/.400/.357/.757
- Pollock – 29 AB – .310/.300/.552/.852
- Rios – 8 AB – .250/.250/.750/1.000
- JT – 26 AB – .231/.417/.269/.686
- Kike’ – 24 AB – .208/.240/.375/.615
Everyone else < .200 BA; Bottom 4:
- Belli – 40 AB .175
- Joc – 6 AB – .167
- Mookie – 30 AB – .133 (4 hits all year against LHP)
- Smith – 9 AB – .111
Pitching:
Overall ERA:
- LAD #1 – 2.65
- Cleveland #2 – 2.88
Overall WHIP:
- Cleveland #1 – 1.03
- LAD #2 – 1.04
Starter ERA:
- Cleveland #1 – 2.96
- LAD #2 – 3.34
Starter WHIP:
- Cleveland #1 – 1.03
- LAD #5 – 1.11
Reliever ERA:
- LAD #1 – 1.82
- Oakland #2 – 2.01
Reliever WHIP:
- LAD #1 – 0.96
- St. Louis #2 – 1.01
The bullpen was supposed to be a weakness for LAD and a strength for the Padres. It has turned out to be a huge strength for LAD. The Padres were #17 in WHIP at 1.35 and have already blown 8 saves in 17 opportunities. LAD has blown 3 in 11 opportunities.
Something to consider – In the NL, LHSP:
- Padres – MacKenzie Gore (He will be there)
- SFG – Tyler Anderson
- DBacks – Robbie Ray
- Colorado – Kyle Freeland
- Cubs – Jon Lester
- St. Louis – Kwang Hyun Kim
- Cincinnati – No LHSP
- Milwaukee – Brett Anderson
- Atlanta (2) – Max Fried and Robbie Erlin
- Miami – Daniel Castano
- Washington – Patrick Corbin
- Philadelphia – No LHSP
- NYM (2) – Steven Matz and David Peterson
Of course, Washington has Max Scherzer, NYM has Jacob de Grom.
In addition to the Lance Lynn notes above, updates from other Monday games:
Kenta Maeda won his 4th game, allowing 1 run over 5 IP against Cleveland. Kenta has averaged 6 IP/start.
Trevor Bauer gave up 4 runs over 6.1 IP and lost for the 1st time in 2020, losing to Milwaukee and Brett Anderson.
The Rockies ended their 7 game losing streak by beating Arizona who now has lost 6 in a row.
The Angels lost again for the 21st time. They could be the worst team in MLB, with very little help in the MiLB. What a waste for Mike Trout. I hope Rendon enjoys Anaheim.
Dodger odds to make the playoffs are now at 99.9%.
At the halfway mark, the Dodgers are in very good shape. There are a couple of weaknesses that can be addressed, but AF is not going to overpay in prospect capital. But I would hate for $$$ to be an obstacle for this year.
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Discussion (120)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Wood will not be coming off the IL for a while. Per Roberts he is not ready yet. Tony Gonsolin will undoubtedly get a start this weekend. Taxi Squad for SF and Texas: Gonsolin, Gavin Lux, Mitch White, Rocky Gale, Luke Raley. It appears that Lux has once again surpassed McKinstry.
If the playoffs started today, before tonight’s games, the Marlins would be in, isn’t that a surprise, and the 8 seed would be the Giants, who at .467 are a hair ahead of the Mets, .462.
Good to see Muncy homer.
Bad to see Urias give up one.
Well that has to be the worst strike out the side inning of pitching! I’m still a big believer in Julio tho!
I don’t know what to say about Urias. He has reverse career splits so if he was in the bullpen Doc would use him against left-handed hitters which is Urias’s weakness. Brandon Belt is a left handed hitter that homered off of Urias.
Seager is coming back to being an mvp candidate once again! A lot of talent on this club!
I see you guys talking about Lux today. Here’s the thing, it’s obvious to me that Doc values defense A LOT. That’s why Beaty doesn’t get much playing time and Hernandez does. So because of that I am for promoting Lux because it will most likely take away playing time from Hernandez. I just wish Doc had a different philosophy that would allow Beaty more playing time. I think Lux is an upgrade over Hernandez. Just my opinion.
Mad Max goes off! Welcome back above the Mendoza Line Mr. Muncy.
Urias just doesn’t look good. Nothing but high fastballs and unconvincing breaking balls. Throws too many pitches. Not sharp. No one is fooled.
At this point, I wouldn’t trust Urias with a Game 3 start. Never know if he’s on, or if he’s going to nibble, raise his pitchcount, put guys on base for free, and risk a big inning.
Like Badger said, when he figures it out he’ll be a playoff starter. But for now, no.
I’m enjoying listening to Kruk & Kuip call the game, my favorite broadcasters. On point, as usual, with very little fluff. Neither talk about themselves very much but you know they bring a ton of baseball experience and knowledge with them. Orel will never make it into my hall of fame announcer list.
I think we can safely say that Belli is back.
Concerns: Kike is quickly playing himself off the team this season. His fielding has taken a hit as well as his offense. Taylor should be the #1 utility guy on the team going forward.
Urias and the rookies. How do you go into the playoffs with only Buehler and CK ready to pitch? And, with CK’s history, even that is not such a rosy picture. Of course, if we have to field more than two pitchers, which we do, all of the others could start, I just don’t imagine a happy ending. They must get another starter at the trade deadline if they want to maintain their advantage going into the playoffs. Urias, May, and Gonsolin can be our future but the future is not here, today. This shortened Covid season will just give them a growing period but should not be used in the playoffs other than in an emergency situation.
Kenley throwing cookies
Ouch!!! Brandon Belt ties it in the 9th…
Belli, Muncy and Pollock coming up…
It sure seems Giants play their best vs Dodgers. That’s fine as long as it’s ‘not quite good enough’.
Why did Taylor ph for Joc? A RH pitcher is what Joc likes.
No ph for Smith?
Doc’s brain keeps ticking away………………
Big mistake Seager just made! Should have thrown the runner out at 3B
Doc is running out of good relievers.
Uh oh Santana.
Hopefully, that will finish off Santana from the roster. The guy just can’t deliver.
Santana lost the game, yes, but he did not blow it. They lost the game when Urias blew a 3 run lead. And he gave up another after that. He was piss poor. He put too much pressure on the bullpen. The new rules favor the home team. And they lost the game when they loaded the bases with 2 outs and Smith stood there for strike 3 with the bat on his shoulder. There are many places in this game you can say they threw the game away. So don’t put all the blame on Santana. How about Kenley serving a center cut pitch to their hottest hitter Belt, who hit his second homer? Come on, get real. I doubt Santana will be on the final roster, but they lost the game before he came into pitch. 3-17 with runners in scoring position. Mookie did not get a hit until the 9th inning. Then failed to move the runner over in the 11th. Had that ball in the 10th been hit at Turner instead of to his right, the game would have ended then. Oh yeah, Santana was the guy who held the Astro’s in check when the Dodgers won that 13 inning game from them on Rios homer. Doc pulling Pederson with a RH pitcher on the mound and Taylor went down on 3 pitches. I could go on and on. Urias not going more than 4 caused them to use 8 pitchers tonight. Thankfully Kersh is pitching tomorrow, and he pitches well in SF.
Looking for a trade candidate on the Dodgers at the deadline? I have one, Kike Hernandez. I unload him now while he has some value. If someone wants Joc, I trade him too. Kike has been steadily going downhill since opening day, and he is getting painful to watch play. I am tired of both of them. Give Lux, and any one else their spots.
All of these 4 inning starts will cost the Dodgers eventually.
They gave up leads of 3 – 0, 6 – 3, 7 – 6, and 8 – 7. That won’t get it done but you can’t keep expecting the bullpen to pitch 4+ innings every game. this will happen eventually.
The only starter averaging 6 ip/start is the old man who got started late, Clayton Kershaw. Look it up. Urias averages 4.5, May just under 5.0, Buehler exactly 5.0, Gonsolin just under 5.0, and Stripling just under 5.0. Someone has to eat some innings. The bullpen can’t always save the day
The only thing positive I can think of is that Ferguson looked damn good. Everything else I agree 100% with you guys, you make great points as per usual. I hope for a much better showing tomorrow.