From Here on, It's a Crapshoot!
The Los Angeles Dodgers won the World Series in 2024. It is tough in the modern era to win it two years in a row. In fact, it has not been done in 25 years. The Dodgers have a shot, but it is much more difficult this time around. Everyone has analytics and scouting. It’s a chess…
The Los Angeles Dodgers won the World Series in 2024. It is tough in the modern era to win it two years in a row. In fact, it has not been done in 25 years. The Dodgers have a shot, but it is much more difficult this time around. Everyone has analytics and scouting. It’s a chess match, and it’s never been harder to win back-to-back than now.
That said, the Dodgers have the best chance of winning another World Series. However, baseball is a crazy game. A hitter can check his swing and hit an “excuse me” triple that scores multiple runs. Or, a hitter can hit the ball right on the screws at 109 MPH and hit into a triple play. That is what is maddening and awesome about baseball. I happen to like the Dodgers’ chances… but you never know. This is baseball.
What I do know is that if the Dodgers don’t win the World Series, most will blame Andrew Freidmen or Dave Roberts! “There’s no such thing as a crapshoot! “Friedman should have signed Mantale, Mays, Clemnete, Drysdaye. Koufax and Gibson. He’s a bum!”
Play ball!
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Discussion (89)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Let’s go
Mark,
So if you read the summary of the Mets loss. Alonso, with bags full, hits his hardest shot of the year. 116mph in the gap. but its caught.
As you said. Its a crap shoot
Win Game 1 and we’re not losing the series.
A crapshoot….
But the dice should be loaded in the Dodgers’ favor.
On paper, where the games aren’t played, the Dodgers are still a powerhouse–especially if Will and Max get back into action.
The bullpen is a reason for concern, but Sheehan, Kershaw and Sasaki are leading the cavalry. For that matter, it looks like Glasnow could come out of the pen against the underdog Reds.
Its not a crapshoot. If it were, the Dodgers wouldn’t be spending a half billion on players this year.
Talent matters. It is not always the final determining factor, but if talent didn’t matter then the Dodgers could shoot to win 90 games every year – just enough to get into the playoffs.
The front office doesn’t believe that it’s only a crapshoot. They accumulated as much talent as they could to give the Dodgers the best chance to win.
They arguably did not do enough to buttress this team’s most obvious weakness, the bullpen. They got 4 poorly pitched games from Brock Stewart after the deadline. Stewart should have had several red flags flying from his pitching arm. He had his shoulder scoped in August 24. This year he made more appearances than at any time in his career. Someone missed something on an MRI.
No, it’s not a crapshoot. Talent still matters,and the Dodgers have more than any team in baseball. Will that be enough? Who knows.
without home field advantage , the road to a championship is a little harder. That’s if they beat the Reds. now i totally expect them to beat the reds and advance to meet the phillies, but it’s baseball and anything is possible. it seems they rediscovered their swagger in seattle. Wow what a difference in this team when the bullpen does its job! … If Kike was a .280 hitter with his defense? it’s october time for sure! if he was only a .280 hitter! …. Clayton was fabulous yesterday! 7 k’s , 1 bb! One thing. Thought Freddie coming out to get Kersh was great! But maybe Doc should have sent Max with him. after all, max has been with Clayton a long time. not nitpicking, but max deserved a little consideration for that too!……. sure wish joe davis and Hershiser would have done the game yesterday! …. once again, Landon Knack was excellent yesterday. Looking forward to next season’s battle for a starting job with the dodgers! Knack, Sheehan, Gavin Stone, River Ryan. Oh and Gonsolin too! lots of candidates, only one spot open! If only the bullpen could be that easy! But after what we’ve seen out of Emmit, He’s the number 5. Probably number 2or 3 on any other team in baseball. …. Playoffs start tomorrow! Lets enjoy the ride! i plan on being happy till the end of the season!
Mark, sorry about your Colts!!!
Maybe we meet in the Super Bowl!
Go Rams….and Dodgers!
Dodgers vs Reds…. LA
Cubs vs Assholes… CHI
Yankees vs Red Sox… NYY
Guardians vs Tigers… CLE
Dodgers vs Phillies….. LA
Cubs vs Brewers…….. CHI
Yankees vs Bluejays… TOR
Guardians vs Mariners… CLE
Toronto vs Cleveland…..Toronto
Dodgers vs Chicago….. LA
Toronto vs LA…… DODGERS!
I bet $10 dollars.
It’s all about sequencing. Yes, this year will be harder than last year, because 13 victories are required. Win 2, before losing 2. Win 3 before losing 3. 2 * (Win 4, before losing 4). Et voila. 3, 5, 7, & 7 games, 22 total. I haven’t verified this, but I’d bet every team in baseball went 13-9 in one 22 game stretch of the season. That is with random competition of course. In the playoffs, it’s everyone’s best, all the time.
I’d bet LAD will ride the starters hard if they’re dealing. No sense saving bullets now. Yamamoto, Ohtani, Snell, Glasnow, in some order, is pretty fierce talent wise.
The bullpen could be dynamite; good or bad. The starters and lineup could make it easier, but the margins for victories seem to shrink in the playoffs.
I think the psychological effect of Clayton retiring is bringing the team together in just the right way, at just the right time. The talent, will, motivation, and vision are all there. They’ve learned how the playoffs work over the last few seasons. Doubling down on focus and intensity worked wonders last year.
LFGD!
Porpoise Boy, sorry, I cant agree with you on trading Gonsolin for two reasons: 1st, look at his numbers prior to injury, ace level stuff, 2nd, understanding the risk to his career, he continued to pitch because he knew we were without other options at the time. That is an unusual level of team mentality when millions are at stake in terms of future contracts for players these days. I hope we keep him.
Loved Kersh not giving the ball to Freddie. Reds will not just roll over for LA; they are young and have nothing to lose. Beating the Dodgers would be a huge feather in their cap. Not having to listen to Mendoza is a blessing. She just prattles on too much. Interview with Kersh’s wife and kids was cute. Good to see AJ and Honey at the game in support of Kersh. AJ looking well even if he does work for the Padres. Always thought that Ellis would be a very good manager someday, seems that is not his area of interest. Glad you are doing well Mark.
So if this is really just a crapshoot, why spend a half billion dollars on payroll? Talent really doesn’t matter at all in the post-season – it’s really all a matter of chance? This makes no sense at all. The oddsmakers disagree with you and their livelihood depends on being right.
i wouldn’t count my chickens just yet Bear! she said yesterday she’s not sure where they are sending her to cover a game. hopefully it’s somewhere in norway! i agree with an earlier post .Alana Rizzo? yeah, she would be just fine! Mendoza seems to bring out the “goofy “ in nellson. just my 2 cents. K. Watson is getting better every season. enjoyed her interviews over the weekend. I guess i should also say that there are many male analysts i can’t listen to on tv and the radio. 2 guys theat were very good in the studio, awful play by play guys, Ernie Johnson and Musberger! love E. johnson as a host, but man he’s not very good at baseball play by play. i guess Vin spoiled us all!
Still very relevant:
Open on blogs.fangraphs.comhttps://blogs.fangraphs.com/yes-the-playoffs-are-still-a-crapshoot/So, let’s settle this with ChatGPT:
Me: Could it be said that MLB playoffs are a crapshoot?
ChatGPT: Yes—it’s fair to say that MLB playoffs are often described as a “crapshoot”, and here’s why:
1. Small Sample Size
The regular season is 162 games—long enough for true talent levels to shine through. The playoffs, by contrast, are made up of short series (best-of-3, best-of-5, best-of-7). In such small samples, randomness, hot streaks, or one key mistake can outweigh the larger picture of who’s actually the “better” team.
2. Pitching Matchups
In October, rotations tighten. A team with two elite starters (say, 2014 Giants with Bumgarner, or 2001 Diamondbacks with Johnson & Schilling) can neutralize a 100-win club that had more depth but less top-end dominance.
3. Variance of Hitting
Even MVP-caliber hitters can slump over a week. Because runs are scarce in October—when facing aces and bullpens stacked with relievers throwing 98+—one or two timely hits often swing entire series.
4. Wild Card Chaos
The addition of Wild Card games (and now series) means that teams barely above .500 can knock out division winners. A hot Wild Card team with momentum can ride that wave all the way to the World Series (see: 2019 Nationals, 2014 Giants, 2011 Cardinals).
5. Historical Evidence
The team with the best regular-season record (the “favorite”) wins the World Series far less often than you’d expect—historically under 25%.
In fact, wild card teams have won the World Series more often than 100-win teams in the Wild Card era.
Dynasties like the late-1990s Yankees are the exception, not the rule.
Bottom line:
Calling the MLB playoffs a “crapshoot” isn’t an insult—it’s an acknowledgment that variance, matchups, and timing play a much larger role than in the marathon of the regular season. Talent still matters, but luck, health, and hot streaks matter a lot more.
Would you like me to back this up with some stats—for example, how often the team with the best record actually wins it all?
Me: Yes
ChatGPT: Got it. Let’s look at the historical record of the best team (by regular-season record) winning the World Series:
Since the Wild Card Era (1995–2024)
30 postseasons, 11 best-record teams reached the World Series, and only 5 actually won it.
Winners: 1998 Yankees, 2007 Red Sox, 2009 Yankees, 2016 Cubs, 2018 Red Sox.
That’s about 17% of the time (5 out of 30).
Postseason Expansion Effect
With extra Wild Cards (2012 onward, and again in 2022), the odds got worse. More teams → more randomness.
Example: In 2022, the 111-win Dodgers lost in the NLDS; in 2023, the 104-win Braves lost in the NLDS.
Long-Term Perspective
In MLB history (1903–2024), the team with the best record has won the World Series only about 25–30% of the time.
Compare that to the NBA and NFL, where top seeds win championships much more often (NBA top seed: ~50%, NFL #1 seed: ~35%).
Wild Card Success
Wild Cards have won the World Series 7 times since 1995 (Marlins ’97 & ’03, Angels ’02, Red Sox ’04, Cardinals ’11, Giants ’14, Nationals ’19).
That’s nearly as many championships as best-record teams in the same span.
Summary:
Best-record team wins: ~17% in Wild Card era.
Wild Card wins: ~23% in Wild Card era.
That’s why people say the MLB playoffs are a crapshoot—the “best” team is more likely to lose than win it all.
Are we clear?
Well, I had my Dark Horse Mustang for a year, and Today I traded it in for a 2025 F-150 Platinum PowerBoost/Hybrid. I still have my 2019 F-150 Limited. TBD
Score first tonight! To me that’s the key. Don’t let the reds catch their breath! Snell has to give the team 6-7 innings and keep the walks at a minimum! All i’m hearing from mlb network is Hunter Greene! He’s tough! but the dodgers usually handle the toughest pitchers! 5-2 dodgers win!
I believe Andrew once again is one step ahead of the rest of us. He knows the stats that Mark provided for us. The front office decided the best chance to win would be to come to the playoffs as a wildcard team. So there you have it.
Question for our most knowledgeable LADT gurus, do we think there was a specific strategy behind snell today instead of Yamamoto?
Actually, Jerry DiPoto, GM of the Mariners, has been roasted by Seattle fans for his comment that ideally they should strive to win 54% of their games as that will be enough to make the playoffs. For all of those fans who subscribe to the “crapshoot” paradigm, DiPoto is correct. Just strive to make it to the playoffs and then rely on chance.
No Conforto – Dean instead
Scott and Treinen both in.
No Conforto…..
Chess vs Checkers…
Skubal shoved….