From Here on, It's a Crapshoot!
The Los Angeles Dodgers won the World Series in 2024. It is tough in the modern era to win it two years in a row. In fact, it has not been done in 25 years. The Dodgers have a shot, but it is much more difficult this time around. Everyone has analytics and scouting. It’s a chess…
The Los Angeles Dodgers won the World Series in 2024. It is tough in the modern era to win it two years in a row. In fact, it has not been done in 25 years. The Dodgers have a shot, but it is much more difficult this time around. Everyone has analytics and scouting. It’s a chess match, and it’s never been harder to win back-to-back than now.
That said, the Dodgers have the best chance of winning another World Series. However, baseball is a crazy game. A hitter can check his swing and hit an “excuse me” triple that scores multiple runs. Or, a hitter can hit the ball right on the screws at 109 MPH and hit into a triple play. That is what is maddening and awesome about baseball. I happen to like the Dodgers’ chances… but you never know. This is baseball.
What I do know is that if the Dodgers don’t win the World Series, most will blame Andrew Freidmen or Dave Roberts! “There’s no such thing as a crapshoot! “Friedman should have signed Mantale, Mays, Clemnete, Drysdaye. Koufax and Gibson. He’s a bum!”
Play ball!
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Discussion (89)
Disagree, not disagreeable
vesia still looks tired. henriquez looks like triple A. dryer finally put out the fire! Trienan was not bad! bloop hit? we’ll take it! Hope the bats don’t go silent tomorrow!! finish it off!!!
They flipped the switch.
So far both Ohtani ABs. Ended with a ‘wow’
For those still pining for Mason Miller:
1. The Dodgers did not have the Top Prospect to get him. Top 5 Prospects have so much greater value than Top 10 or Top 20 Prospects. No matter how many times you say it, the Dodgers did not have the collateral. And, even if they did, they should not have burned them.
2. Mason Miller has made it clear he wants to start next year.
3. We are watching the Padres ship stink… er’ sink.
Headline in the Wall Street Journal:
Bad News, America. The Numbers Say We’re Getting Another Yankees-Dodgers World Series
Jared Diamond writes:
Despite spending somewhere close to $650 million to assemble their rosters, the two most prestigious franchises in Major League Baseball didn’t exactly have the smoothest summers.
The Los Angeles Dodgers, the superteam that looked destined to dominate the sport, endured an unending spate of injuries, a prolonged slump from star Mookie Betts and underperformance from many of their high-priced newcomers. The New York Yankees, meanwhile, dealt with frequent bullpen meltdowns, incomprehensible lapses in fundamentals and frustrating stretches of inconsistency that frequently left them searching for answers.
It was enough to give hope to the millions of fans around the country who want nothing more from their October baseball than to see the Yankees and Dodgers implode in spectacular fashion.
But with apologies to those people, we’re here to deliver some bad news. History suggests that the stage is perfectly set for a Yankees-Dodgers rematch in the World Series.
The reason for that is simple enough: They both hit a ridiculous number of home runs.
The MLB postseason, which begins on Tuesday, is often described as a “crapshoot”—a zany, monthlong gauntlet where chaos reigns supreme and the best team in the regular season rarely wins.
In recent years, however, there has been a clear blueprint for October success hidden within the madness. In a game that increasingly revolves around power, the past five champions have all finished within the top four in MLB in homers. Seven of the last eight were in the top 10. In fact, over the past decade, only the 2015 Kansas City Royals were in the bottom half of MLB in home runs.
There is a common misconception that the way to win in the playoffs is by relying heavily on small ball. (This theory will undoubtedly come up a lot on television broadcasts over the next few weeks.)
The problem, it turns out, is that the exact opposite is true—and the numbers bear it out.
No matter what time of year it is, home runs are always correlated with winning. Teams that out-homer their opponents have won 76.5% of their regular-season games this decade.
In the playoffs, though, the effect is amplified dramatically, with the club that hits more homers winning a whopping 84% of the time over that span. The team that bashes more home runs in a postseason series has a winning percentage of .800.
So while other elements on offense are important, Mariners general manager Justin Hollander says, “They are not as important as hitting homers.”
So, contrary to fans who want to bunt and play small ball, the HR is still King!
Anyone surprised Banda not on roster?
I guess only 2 games….
9:08 PM ET
Reds (83-79)
Dodgers (93-69)
SP Hunter Greene R
7-4 2.76 ERA
SP Blake Snell L
5-4 2.35 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
DH S. Ohtani L
SS Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
3B Max Muncy L
RF T. Hernandez R
2B Tommy Edman S
CF Andy Pages R
LF E. Hernandez R
C Ben Rortvedt L
70° Wind 10 mph Out
Keller closing for Cubs, things get weird in October.
SD STILL SUCKS.
Skubal shoved….
No Conforto…..
Chess vs Checkers…
No Conforto – Dean instead
Scott and Treinen both in.
Actually, Jerry DiPoto, GM of the Mariners, has been roasted by Seattle fans for his comment that ideally they should strive to win 54% of their games as that will be enough to make the playoffs. For all of those fans who subscribe to the “crapshoot” paradigm, DiPoto is correct. Just strive to make it to the playoffs and then rely on chance.
Question for our most knowledgeable LADT gurus, do we think there was a specific strategy behind snell today instead of Yamamoto?
I believe Andrew once again is one step ahead of the rest of us. He knows the stats that Mark provided for us. The front office decided the best chance to win would be to come to the playoffs as a wildcard team. So there you have it.
Score first tonight! To me that’s the key. Don’t let the reds catch their breath! Snell has to give the team 6-7 innings and keep the walks at a minimum! All i’m hearing from mlb network is Hunter Greene! He’s tough! but the dodgers usually handle the toughest pitchers! 5-2 dodgers win!
Well, I had my Dark Horse Mustang for a year, and Today I traded it in for a 2025 F-150 Platinum PowerBoost/Hybrid. I still have my 2019 F-150 Limited. TBD
Are we clear?
So, let’s settle this with ChatGPT:
Me: Could it be said that MLB playoffs are a crapshoot?
ChatGPT: Yes—it’s fair to say that MLB playoffs are often described as a “crapshoot”, and here’s why:
1. Small Sample Size
The regular season is 162 games—long enough for true talent levels to shine through. The playoffs, by contrast, are made up of short series (best-of-3, best-of-5, best-of-7). In such small samples, randomness, hot streaks, or one key mistake can outweigh the larger picture of who’s actually the “better” team.
2. Pitching Matchups
In October, rotations tighten. A team with two elite starters (say, 2014 Giants with Bumgarner, or 2001 Diamondbacks with Johnson & Schilling) can neutralize a 100-win club that had more depth but less top-end dominance.
3. Variance of Hitting
Even MVP-caliber hitters can slump over a week. Because runs are scarce in October—when facing aces and bullpens stacked with relievers throwing 98+—one or two timely hits often swing entire series.
4. Wild Card Chaos
The addition of Wild Card games (and now series) means that teams barely above .500 can knock out division winners. A hot Wild Card team with momentum can ride that wave all the way to the World Series (see: 2019 Nationals, 2014 Giants, 2011 Cardinals).
5. Historical Evidence
The team with the best regular-season record (the “favorite”) wins the World Series far less often than you’d expect—historically under 25%.
In fact, wild card teams have won the World Series more often than 100-win teams in the Wild Card era.
Dynasties like the late-1990s Yankees are the exception, not the rule.
Bottom line:
Calling the MLB playoffs a “crapshoot” isn’t an insult—it’s an acknowledgment that variance, matchups, and timing play a much larger role than in the marathon of the regular season. Talent still matters, but luck, health, and hot streaks matter a lot more.
Would you like me to back this up with some stats—for example, how often the team with the best record actually wins it all?
Me: Yes
ChatGPT: Got it. Let’s look at the historical record of the best team (by regular-season record) winning the World Series:
Since the Wild Card Era (1995–2024)
30 postseasons, 11 best-record teams reached the World Series, and only 5 actually won it.
Winners: 1998 Yankees, 2007 Red Sox, 2009 Yankees, 2016 Cubs, 2018 Red Sox.
That’s about 17% of the time (5 out of 30).
Postseason Expansion Effect
With extra Wild Cards (2012 onward, and again in 2022), the odds got worse. More teams → more randomness.
Example: In 2022, the 111-win Dodgers lost in the NLDS; in 2023, the 104-win Braves lost in the NLDS.
Long-Term Perspective
In MLB history (1903–2024), the team with the best record has won the World Series only about 25–30% of the time.
Compare that to the NBA and NFL, where top seeds win championships much more often (NBA top seed: ~50%, NFL #1 seed: ~35%).
Wild Card Success
Wild Cards have won the World Series 7 times since 1995 (Marlins ’97 & ’03, Angels ’02, Red Sox ’04, Cardinals ’11, Giants ’14, Nationals ’19).
That’s nearly as many championships as best-record teams in the same span.
Summary:
Best-record team wins: ~17% in Wild Card era.
Wild Card wins: ~23% in Wild Card era.
That’s why people say the MLB playoffs are a crapshoot—the “best” team is more likely to lose than win it all.
Still very relevant:
Open on blogs.fangraphs.comhttps://blogs.fangraphs.com/yes-the-playoffs-are-still-a-crapshoot/i wouldn’t count my chickens just yet Bear! she said yesterday she’s not sure where they are sending her to cover a game. hopefully it’s somewhere in norway! i agree with an earlier post .Alana Rizzo? yeah, she would be just fine! Mendoza seems to bring out the “goofy “ in nellson. just my 2 cents. K. Watson is getting better every season. enjoyed her interviews over the weekend. I guess i should also say that there are many male analysts i can’t listen to on tv and the radio. 2 guys theat were very good in the studio, awful play by play guys, Ernie Johnson and Musberger! love E. johnson as a host, but man he’s not very good at baseball play by play. i guess Vin spoiled us all!
So if this is really just a crapshoot, why spend a half billion dollars on payroll? Talent really doesn’t matter at all in the post-season – it’s really all a matter of chance? This makes no sense at all. The oddsmakers disagree with you and their livelihood depends on being right.
Loved Kersh not giving the ball to Freddie. Reds will not just roll over for LA; they are young and have nothing to lose. Beating the Dodgers would be a huge feather in their cap. Not having to listen to Mendoza is a blessing. She just prattles on too much. Interview with Kersh’s wife and kids was cute. Good to see AJ and Honey at the game in support of Kersh. AJ looking well even if he does work for the Padres. Always thought that Ellis would be a very good manager someday, seems that is not his area of interest. Glad you are doing well Mark.
Porpoise Boy, sorry, I cant agree with you on trading Gonsolin for two reasons: 1st, look at his numbers prior to injury, ace level stuff, 2nd, understanding the risk to his career, he continued to pitch because he knew we were without other options at the time. That is an unusual level of team mentality when millions are at stake in terms of future contracts for players these days. I hope we keep him.