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Fake News

For about a year, I have been predicting that Shohei Ohtani will not be a Dodger. Until proven wrong, I stand by that… STILL! On November 11th, I wrote this: “ Everyone seems to revere Ohtani as “God-like,” and while he is an amazing talent, I think any team that is determined…

By Mark Timmons3 min readJump to 148 comments

For about a year, I have been predicting that Shohei Ohtani will not be a Dodger. Until proven wrong, I stand by that… STILL! On November 11th, I wrote this:

Everyone seems to revere Ohtani as “God-like,” and while he is an amazing talent, I think any team that is determined to sign him is going to regret it very much. I believe you are going to see him start to break down at much more regular intervals. Yes, he is a freak! But he is human, and as we age, injuries are part of the process. Our bodies do not recover as quickly. Ohtani credits sleep with being a recovery mechanism, and he sleeps up to 12 hours a night! He considers sleep as a “recovery” method… and he is right! Sleep is a recovery method that works. I have successfully used it to recover quickly from back surgery and cardioversion, which successfully eliminated A-Fib. I know that it works, but it still will not make Ohtani Superman.

OK, I am going to say something, and here it is: Andrew Friedman will not give Ohtani a contract that hamstrings the Dodgers! Now, what that means exactly, I do not know. But here is what I do know: The Investment Group that bought the Dodgers paid the most ever as a group for the team (over $2 Billion Dollars), and while it is appreciating in value, investors want, no… demand, an annual return on their capital, and the Dodgers deliver that! I think that anytime the Dodgers sign a player, they have to ask, “What is the worst-case scenario if we sign this player?”

What is the worst-case scenario with Shohei? OK, (1) He never recovers enough to be a successful pitcher again (OK, you could live with that); (2) He frequently is injured and maybe only averages 110 games a year; and (3) his power production goes down. If he was making $300 Million over ten years, you might be able to live with that, but you can’t pick and choose when injuries occur. However, if he commands $400 to $500 Million over 10 to 12 years, that is a contract that will hamstring the Dodgers.

See, what Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers are doing is different than any other team in baseball: They want to be relevant and contend every year… and they have done that for the past ten years, and there is no end in sight to that dominant streak. No other team in baseball does that. The fact that they have won only one World Series and were cheated out of another one in that run is not lost on intelligent fans. The morons don’t get it. I am not going to get into that aspect right now, as you can’t tell really stupid people anything! However, I am good with that. I would rather enjoy a winning team, year after year, than win a World Series and then tank for five years! You may feel differently… and that is your prerogative! With the way the playoffs have changed, it is a crapshoot to a large degree, and if you can’t understand that… especially after this season, the lights are on, but nobody is home.

So, unless Andrew Friedman comes up with some very creative way of mitigating risk while signing Ohtani, I do not think it is prudent for the Dodgers to do so, and even if the Dodgers do sign him, I will still abide by that. I do not think it is wise.

Mark Timmons

There has been lots of disinformation on where Ohtani is going to land, and one website even proclaimed yesterday: “Shohei Ohtani to Sign with Toronto Blue Jays over Los Angeles Dodgers: Sources“. As of this minute, that is fake news. People are so eager to break a story that they have to make stuff up. I gained a lot of respect for Dave Roberts, who, earlier this week, did not play the Ohtani silent game and acknowledged that the Dodgers had met with Ohtani. Brandon Gomes and Andrew Friedman still play the role of Ohtani’s Little Bitches. I have lost some respect for them, but Andrew Friedman could step up as a man and regain that respect by saying, “Shohei, since you can’t make the decision, I will make it for you. Let me introduce our new DH – JD Martinez. Have a nice life!”

There is no Shohei in team! Move on from him now, Andrew! Let’s get on with the offseason deals.

Discussion (148)

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  1. dodger dadDecember 9, 2023

    way to go bluto! always someone bringing everyone else down!

  2. JohnnyGentleDecember 9, 2023

    Never in doubt

  3. DodgfanDecember 9, 2023

    The second half of that contract is gonna painful, but not my money!!!

    Looking forward to seeing what that lineup looks like. Potent!

    The Dodgers brand just took a huge boost in Japan.

    Go Dodgers!

  4. Ron Fairly fanDecember 9, 2023

    Still find the numbers to be dumb but he’s here now and three MVPs at the top of the is going to be fun.

  5. CassidyDecember 9, 2023

    I wonder if the Ohtani signing is a plus or minus for signing Yamamoto? I’m guessing Yamamoto doesn’t want to play 2nd fiddle.

  6. Jan WalkerDecember 9, 2023

    I am so bummed that I can’t find the wonderful LA Times piece on Ohtani when he was new on the Angels. I can’t wait for all the coverage he will be enduring. Kershaw will have lots to share with him, as he is snake-bit in the off season & incurs the wrath from bleeders of blue. Let’s hope Shohei & Clayton become dynasty builders. RIP Donnie Moore.

  7. R SlrzDecember 10, 2023

    Now that is the definition of an offer you cannot refuse! About time! Lets go Dodgers!!

  8. R SlrzDecember 10, 2023

    Now lets trade for Burnes and Adames and get to 40!

  9. BorninBrooklynDecember 10, 2023

    700mil

    And here I thought the Dodgers needed A few fighters .

  10. DodgfanDecember 10, 2023

    Dodgers upcoming marketing campaign slogan:

    OHTANIMANIA coming to a stadium near you!

  11. norcaldodgerfanDecember 10, 2023

    This might help in understanding the deferrals in Ohtani’s contract and the CBT implications.

  12. Andrew Vincent ForteDecember 10, 2023

    Earvin Magic Johnson

    @MagicJohnson

    A big thank you to Shohei for deciding to wear Dodger blue! I know all Dodger fans around the world are extremely happy and excited that you decided to join our organization and we welcome you to Dodger nation!

    @Dodgers

  13. Andrew Vincent ForteDecember 10, 2023

    What’s Soto going to be asking for in 2025?

  14. R SlrzDecember 10, 2023

    Give credit when credit is due: great job Friedman and Gomes and the entire Dodgers organization, thank you for going all in to get a championship back to our beloved Dodgers!!!

  15. campyDecember 10, 2023

    Some here thought AF was playing chess, but he was really playing monopoly

  16. GPDecember 10, 2023

    Curtis Flood must be smiling ear to ear !!!

  17. TMDecember 10, 2023

    I’m a bit confused here…..I’m not sure why some of you think Ohtani is the missing link for us winning championship after championship for the next 5 years?

    Doesn’t pitching win in the playoffs? Last time I checked, Ohtani won’t be pitching in 2024 and maybe beyond.

    So, do you really think he can make that much of a difference with his bat? May I remind you what we all saw our two superstars did in the playoffs this past year….nothing….absolutely nothing. Still think the great Oh can make THAT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE all by himself?

    If you say, “yes” I respect that….you want to believe…..so do I….but apart from Jesus, it’s not easy for me to believe that one man who is not a pitcher can make that much of a change IN THE PLAYOFFS.

    Thanks for listening and it’s okay if you don’t agree with me. I admit, I don’t follow baseball like most of you guys….but I do have a sound mind and a lot of common sense.

    Cheers,

    TM

  18. DodgerfanDecember 10, 2023

    If it’s safe to say Ohtani got a deal similar to Bobby Bonilla Asking for a friend

  19. Andrew Vincent ForteDecember 10, 2023

    Earvin Magic Johnson

    @MagicJohnson

    A big big congratulations and job well done to my partner and Dodgers majority owner Mark Walter, Stan Kasten, Andrew Friedman, and the rest of the Dodgers organization for signing Shohei Ohtani!

    @Dodgers

  20. JohnnyGentleDecember 10, 2023

    Get your own blog, chico.

    Mark is a baller.

  21. JohnnyGentleDecember 10, 2023

    I never wanted Kershaw back before but now I think I do. #3 starter, Clayton Kershaw!

    I’m still incredibly bullish on Pepiot, Sheehan & Stone. Miller is de facto #1 and Buehler is #2 if healthy. Need that #3 in the rotation. We’ll probably buy one.

    Imanaga is my pick. Stroman might be my next one, followed by Giolito.

  22. EricDecember 10, 2023

    Mark’s probably working on an Ohtani writing for tomorrow. For those who’s asked where he’s at.

  23. NH DodgerDecember 10, 2023

    Man, some of you need to be patient. Dodger decision on how to pursue two starting pitchers was dependent on the Ohtani signing. The two starters will be pitchers that don’t cost draft compensation (like Imanoga, Giolito) or pitchers acquired in a trade (like Cease or Glasnow).

    The decision to sign Ohtani is great news for Dodgers on the field. Of course there is risk. And it is a lot of money. But it is not my money and there were many teams willing to shell out similar money for his performance on the field and the marketing impact off the field. A line up fronted by Betts, Freeman, and Ohtani and backed up by Will Smith, Max Muncy is a great start. Dodgers have been signaling this move in this off season for a while now and to their credit they pulled it off. No doubt they have a sequence of moves mapped out to fill out their roster and they will hope to execute that plan in the coming weeks. Interested to see how it all shakes out.

  24. Jayne CobbDecember 10, 2023

    I’m shocked at the number. But the devil is in the details. I will withhold my opinion until the full details of the contract are released.

    I will say this. I’ve given up explaining to people the concept of “time value of money”. The Bobby Bonilla contract wasn’t stupid. Or was the contract the Reds gave to Griffey Jr. Money tomorrow is worth less than money today. Money you defer can be invested and earns a return. And even if you offer interest on that deferred money the party offering the deferment can still end up significantly ahead. It’s the magic of compound interest. Bobby Bonilla would have been much better off taking the money upfront, and investing it. The Mets were smart in structuring the contract in that way. Regardless what Met fans complain about every year.

    We will see what this contract really looks likes. It likely won’t be public until after Ohtani’s physical and press conference.

    I’m happy he’s a Dodger. I reserve judgment in if this is or isn’t a good contract until I see the details.

  25. JohnDecember 10, 2023

    First, when Timmons takes a crap, more knowledge of Dodger baseball is flushed than most of us will ever know.

    Worried about being very left handed dominate when it comes to the Dodgers line up. I know the splits on several players isn’t good.

    Can someone give us the splits between right handed pitching vs. left handed pitching. Thank you

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