Do You Want to Win the Battle or the War?

Sun Tzu, who wrote The Art of War, said this:

“According as circumstances are favorable, one should modify one’s plans.“

That is a really, really wise statement. All winter, and right about now, the Padres are improving… at least on paper. They added Joe Musgrove yesterday, who has some upside and a downside. Which side will rear its head is the question, but they probably got better, although again weakening the depth of their Farm System.

I think the Dodgers would like to stay under the LuxTax (that’s what I call the Competitive Balance Tax), but depending upon many circumstances, they may decide to go over it… and I believe they can. But will they? It’s just not what they want to do. When Andrew Friedman said that the Dodgers wanted to be pigs, many people took that to mean that he was going to “stack the team” and sign all the free agents and trade away the farm so that they could win it all again in 2021. Those people who thought that were hopeful, uninformed, and delusional!

That simply ain’t happening! Not a chance, and there never was. Andrew Friedman was talking about the end result, not the process of getting there, which by the way, he is not sharing with anyone, let alone, me and you! The only way to even begin to predict what Andrew Friedman will do is to look back. Since he signed Mookie Betts to a huge deal, you think he will do it again and you would be WRONG! He has NEVER done that before. You do this for special players when they fall into your lap. Jim Bowden of The Athletic summed it up:

The Dodgers have made some solid moves for their bullpen, trading for right-hander Corey Knebel from the Brewers, re-signing reliever Blake Treinen with a pay cut, and taking a chance on free agent Tommy Kahnle despite the fact he’s rehabilitating from Tommy John surgery and won’t get back until 2022. The defending world champions are letting the offseason come to them, but don’t think the moves the Padres have made haven’t gotten their attention.

Of course, this is the same Jim Bowden who predicted that Nolan Arenado would be a Dodger by Christmas… and he could be right: Christmas 2021! It is my opinion that unless Nolan Arenado opts out of his contract after 2021, he will not be a Dodger… and I don’t see a way he walks away from all the Benjamins… unless he is the NL MVP and to get there he has to improve whole bunch! I can’t see it.

Even if the Dodgers do not sign Justin Turner, they are the class of the NL – It’s just that the gap has lessened! Position-by-position and pitcher-by-pitcher, it is my opinion that the Padres are not the equal of the Dodgers, but they are better than they were last season. The keyword right about now is: DON’T PANIC!

“According as circumstances are favorable, one should modify one’s plans.“

That simply means that maybe the Dodgers start the season with the crew they have. They would like to have JT… and signing him will put them over the LuxTax, but if he doesn’t sign, there is no reason to panic. Maybe the best thing to do is to start the season and see what we have and what they have. There will be surprises on both teams, both good and bad. Then, at the trade deadline, a move or three can be made. Don’t panic. Let the game come to you. According as circumstances are favorable, one should modify one’s plans.

Mark Timmons Translation: Don’t make any dope-fiend moves!

Ask and answer these questions:

1. Will Gavin Lux realize his potential?
2. Will Will Smith continue to progress to being an All-Star?
3. Will Cody and Max have bounceback years?
4. Will Corey step up and show out?
5. Is Edwin Rios ready for an everyday spot?
6. Will Mookie elevate his game to be the MVP?
7. Does Chris Taylor have more in the tank?
8. Can AJ Pollock put together another impressive season?
9. Will some rookies will step up?
10. Does Clayton have another great year left?
11. Can Kenley re-capture his magic?
12. Is this the year Walker Buehler becaome Striker Buehler?
13. What is Julio Urias?
14. Can David Price really be the Comeback Player of the Year?
15. Can May and Gonsolin grow more and become linchpins for the team?
16. Is Knebel for real?
17. Who is Cleavinger?
18. Will Bazooka take another step forward in the pen?
19. Will Treinen and Kelly be useful parts of the bullpen?
20. Where is Josiah Gray in his development?
21. Is Reks or Raley better than Beaty?
22. Who will step up in the bullpen?
23. Who is on the bench?
24. Are Busch and Hoese prospects or suspects?
25. Are the Dodgers hungry for another Championship?

There are lots of questions (every team has them) that I cannot answer, and neither can you. That is why they play the game and not just run some computer model. The best team on paper does not always win, but they generally are close! I am fine with whatever Andrew Friedman does or doesn’t do… the real deadline is the Trade Deadline. There will be a lot of sellers then.

The Padres may have won the offseason, but that is all they have won and it doesn’t come with a trophy. The game is played to get to the World Series and be in a position to win it all. Have the Padres put themselves in a better position to do that? Most likely, but Yu Darvish has wilted in the bright lights before, and questions abound about all of their starting pitchers. They could be very good or not. Like the Dodgers, the Padres also have questions. We will learn the answers as the season unfolds! According as circumstances are favorable, one should modify one’s plans. Watch and learn!

Undivided

Silver Threads and Golden Needles

Do you want to grow a Monkey Tail Beard?

Then read THIS. If not, just stop now. That might look good on you, Bear! 😉