A little premature to know if AF is finished yet, but the Dodger bullpen has already been overhauled some. Knebel, Cleavenger, Kahnle, the new kids on the block. Kahnle will not pitch this season, and Cleavenger has never pitched above AA. Wood and Baez have gone to SF and Houston respectively, and McGee so far has not been signed anywhere.
And the roster sits at 40. There are all sorts of rumors floating around including the rumor that they are on Kirby Yates list as one of the remaining teams left on his list of suitors. (EDIT UPDATE – Yates signed with Toronto). And the Justin Turner question persists.
Likely scenario is they try for at least one more solid back of the pen arm. Yates fits that need nicely. In order to sign Yates, they need to open a roster spot, which means since Ferguson and Kahnle cannot be placed on the IL until spring training, they would have to DFA someone. There are a few candidates I would consider who would be first on the list to be moved. Josh Sborz would be one of those guys. Limited innings, Not a top prospect anymore, and now 27 years old.
Dennis Santana would be another candidate, 25 years old, limited success at the major league level. But it could also end up being a position player. Reks is 26 and Raley is 27. Little long in the tooth to be considered prospects. Raley has had limited MLB time, and Reks none. But I doubt either is high on the Dodger depth chart. Both are LH hitters, and the Dodgers are loaded with those.
As it stands right now the candidates for the pen are Knebel, Alexander, Cleavenger, Floro, Gonzalez, Graterol, Jansen, Kelly, Kolarek, Santana, Sborz, Treinen, and whoever does not make the rotation. That is 12 and counting. Now, with a 26 man roster, they will carry no more than 13 pitchers I would think. Especially with the 3rd base and 2nd base positions under some clouds as to who will end up being the starter.
Is AF through? He does not have much wiggle room financially unless they go over the limit and also dump a few players. A trade maybe”? Seems more likely at the deadline. With the actual rules they will play under this season still under discussion, will they increase the rosters again because of Covid concerns?
As of right now, nobody really knows. The free agent market is opening up. More and more signings are happening each day.
None of the major guys yet, and 3 former Dodgers have yet to find new homes. McGee, Kike and Joc. It does not surprise me much that AF did not go after one of the bigger free agent names. Like I have said before, he signs usually for depth and need. We all knew the bullpen needed some help. I think Knebel will help, but they could always use more. Ferguson and Kahnle most likely will not pitch. Nelson, who is not on the MLB roster is also an unknown. But if he is really healthy this time, he could turn into a real weapon.
As the JT drama keeps dragging on, I think a part of me believes AF feels Rios can handle the position full time. I honestly believed Turner would have a contract with someone by now. He is not even being mentioned by the Jays anymore.
I like the talent of some of the Dodgers kids. I think Urias is going to be a monster no matter where he ends up, the pen or the rotation. I trust Gonsolin as a starter more than a reliever. But not sure where the team values him the most. May is still a kid learning. And I think his stuff plays out of the pen better at this point in time.
I would love to see them get Yates, or even Hand for that matter. Rosenthal is talking to the Padres. I think the Dodger pen is better right now, but the Pads have shown a willingness to spend, and get what they need. They do not have the Dodgers organizational depth, but they are closing the gap.
Now with close to 4 weeks remaining until pitchers and catchers report, it would be nice to know just who is going to be where. I trust AF a lot more than I did a few years ago. But sometimes it still seems as though he moves at a snail’s pace. But what he has done has worked so far. We can only hope it continues to do so.
At any rate, Kershaw, Kelly, Seager, Taylor, all could be playing their last seasons in blue. I saw a list on MLB.com today that had the most logical candidates for extensions at the end of 2021. The Dodger they felt most likely to be extended was Kersh. I think everyone expects him to end his career as a Dodger.
I do not think he would merit another 30 million a year type deal. But then again, if he has a monster Kershaw type year, management might feel different. It would seem to me that what he gets depends on what they feel it would cost to replace him.
Dodgers have for most of their history depended on pitching when they have won. This season was a little different as they had an offense that just bludgeoned the opposition most of the time. The pitching was good enough to win. The offense was good enough to overcome any mistakes the pitching made.
And they showed huge grit coming back from being down 3-1 to the Braves. I still think they are the class of the National League, but as Satchel Paige once said, don’t look back, someone might be gaining on you. They have a target on their back, and the entire league is trying to catch up.
Discussion (51)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Got my Dodgers World Series blu ray today, Love it, narrated by the great Vin Scully and it has some extras.
Happ to the Twins, and Davis resigns with the Royals, noise from the Dodgers??? Crickets.
Toronto and the Angels are the new front runners for Brad Hand. I doubt the Dodgers were ever in on him and the Mets might have some internal management issues. They were given a very short time to respond to the Blue Jays offer for Springer and they couldn’t respond quick enough. Hand does not represent a significant commitment, so maybe they will get back into it.
Abruptly canning your GM will tend to lead to those sorts of problems. I can’t believe the stupid things that people do with their “Smart Phones”. I guess if the phones were really that smart, they would try to deter you from sending sausage picks.
Remember earlier today when the Jays denied signing Brantley?
Well…………………………..he just resigned with the Astros.
2 years, 32 mil. Supposedly everyone thought he would get 2/28. Astros were in danger of losing their entire outfield from last year. Reddick is still out there.
If Mets were in on Springer and JDLM then they are probably in on Turner.
If Dodgers lose Turner to Mets a trade is likely. Gleyber? Story? Or a free agent like Semien.
A rumor that was dismissed said Yankees would trade Gleyber to Reds for Castillo. Castillo and Kluber could round out Yanks rotation and put them in the pool chasing one of this year’s free agent shortstops.
FWIW, both NYY and Cincinnati have denied any such deal, and certainly not beyond the phone call. Thus far, the only potential deal that I have heard that has not been denied was that Cincinnati asked for the top two prospects from the Nationals, which also happens to be their top two pitching prospects: Jackson Rutledge and Cade Cavali. Reportedly, the Nats said NO. That seems too low of a price for Castillo. Just my opinion for what that is worth (not much). The Reds now say that they are not trading Castillo, and that the chances of trading Sonny Gray are not promising. Castillo’s contract is $4.2MM in his first year of arbitration, so he is still affordable for the Reds. If the Reds believe they can contend in the NL Central, and they do, they are going to hold on to him unless they can get a significant overpay.
So far, the Dodgers’ pen is weaker now than it was at the end of 2020. Here’s what I thought on 1/7:
*Brandon Morrow last threw a pitch in a MLB game in 2018 and broke down by mid-season. The odds that he will ever do so again are not good.
*Garrett Cleavenger has never been a good pitcher. He is, at this point, a 26 year old with 1 MLB appearance. In 5 minor league seasons, he has never pitched above AA. His career MILB stats? 4.08 ERA, 1.389 WHIP, 5.3BB/9 IP.
*Corey Knebel has had 1 good season – in 2017, he had a 1.78 ERA, 39 saves, 1.158 WHIP and 14.9 K/9. If you back out his 2017 numbers, he has a career 4.04 ERA, career WHIP of 1.281, 11.8 K/9. His 2018 numbers were not nearly as good as 2017, then he missed 2019 with Tommy John. Hardly a sure thing at this point.
*Tommy Kahnle will likely not pitch in 2021. His career numbers aren’t good either – ERA 3.82, WHIP 1.286, 4.3 BB/9.
What did they lose from last year’s ‘pen?
*Pedro Baez has a career 3.03 ERA, 1.096 WHIP, 9.03 K/9 vs 3.0 BB/9 and his 2020 numbers are similar to his career numbers.
*Jake McGee has a career 3.59 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 vs. 2.5 BB/9 but had 2.66 ERA, .0836 WHIP, 14.6 K/9 vs 1.3 BB/9 last year.
Yeah, I know, relievers are inconsistent from year to year (sometimes) and one or more of the kids may turn out to be this year’s Victor Gonzalez. But all in all, the ‘pen is weaker than it was.
McGee was not a factor in the playoffs so he”s not a big loss at all. It’s all about building a playoff bullpen. And we all know how Pedro pitches in crunch time. I’ll take Knebel over Pedro all day long for 21.For me this bullpen as is has more upside. Though another back end option would give me more confidence.
Age 22: 23 IP ERA: 6.17
Age 23: 85 IP ERA: 5.59
Age 24: 47 IP ERA: 6.85
Age 25: 32 IP ERA: 5.23
Age 26: 64 IP ERA: 2.92
Looks like he is starting to “get it” – Not Quite!
Age 27: 64 IP 3.76 ERA
Age 28: 64 IP 4.22 ERA
Age 29: 24 IP 4.13 ERA
Maybe he is “getting it.”
Age 30: 85 IP 1.80 ERA
Age 31 : 25 IP 1.78 ERA
Liam Hendriks finally got it!
It took 8 years and 4 teams but they all saw something in him. He was never a strikeout guy and he walked too many, but he fixed all that and is now “lights out.” The point is, you never know when a pitcher, especially a relief pitcher will put it all together. Corey Knebel traveled a shorter, but similar path and really was figuring it out, but then was injured. I see no reason he can’t continue on his path and sources say that he is. If not for a couple of bad outings when Treinen was “outta’ sync” he would have had a 2.something ERA.
I also think Graterol will take some more steps forward and V-Gon will be a force, and one of Urias, May, and Gonsolin will be in the pen to go with Kolarek and Floro who are both solid. If any of the re-treads step up, then the bullpen could be most excellent. I was told all year that bullpen wasn’t all that, but they barely missed being the top pen in baseball by .03 of a point! Due to the depth, I like our chances a lot to have an even better pen than last year.
I’m in on Bauer if $$s, term are right. Just like I’m sure AF is . See if he REALLY wants to be Doyer
Here is a shocker that Rosenthal is pushing. The Dodgers are monitoring Trevor Bauer’s market. And there is a belief that they would jump in if it drops into a range they feel comfortable with.
I’m sure AF monitors everything. If we’ve learned anything about AF is that if we hear about it it’s not going to happen. On the other hand no news means somethings up (e.g., Justin Turner).
I do believe that Trevor Bauer could be someone that LAD (AF and Owners) would exceed CBT at a reasonable (for LAD) term (2 years??). But the one Bauer requirement that I believe holds the largest detriment to signing him, is not giving pushback on his social networking. It is not that LAD is against podcasts. They had no problem with Ross Stripling, but sometimes Bauer is a little too controversial for the conservative Dodgers. I personally have no problem with him, but I know a lot of people do. How do his teammates feel about his social networking comments? I do know that Bauer got more than an earful from Lindor when he threw the ball over the CF fence when Tito came out to pull him. Sometimes he acts and speaks well before he thinks. How vocal might he become if a shift costs him a game. I know Kershaw hates the shift, but he has never put the blame on anyone. He is just a wild card, and the Dodgers seem to stay away from those. Yasiel Puig???
Kudos to Jays and Padres. Two smaller market teams going for it. It’s good for baseball. Boston is down, the Astros are weaker and the Yankees scaling back. The AL is wide open. If Arte wants a title now is the time to strike. Bauer would give them a shot next year. He owes it to Trout!
Brantley to the Jays.
Now the Jays deny it!
A big advantage next playoffs is the one team of those three that doesn’t have to play each. So maybe it’s an advantage if Atlanta has the best record, we win the west and Braves play Padres. We get weak central division winner
Toronto making moves ! need some pitching now. So rumor we sign both JT and Siemen ? JT to DH and Siemen at 3B. How does that affect contract negotiations with Corey ? about to get interesting.
AF is always looking for relievers, but he learned his lesson on Jansen and Kelly – big contracts to relievers are not wise!
I am sure he is looking, but there’s no way he is paying big bucks.
The Dodgers have so many arms in the Farm System, that at some point, you either have to trade some or convert them to relievers:
White
Uceta
Carrillo
Beeter
Knack
Williams
Pepiot
Grove
Ortiz
Jackson
Lewis
Many good relievers are failed starters. I think that has to be part of the plan. Maybe they need to teach a class on how to erase the mindset of a starter and develop a relievrs mindset!
Love the Mad Hungarian – one of kind ! Nasty boy before the Nasty Boys !
For what it’s worth, Bill Plunkett of the LA Daily News and OC Register believes the Dodgers will re-sign Justin Turner by next week.
As to the bullpen, the Dodgers are apparently still trying to add relievers so it’s too early to say. But it will be pretty good, maybe with a break or two, very good. Good article in the LA Times today on Corey Knebel. Obviously the Dodgers think he could be exceptional. His velocity improved late last season and he’s back on a regular throwing program. Has some of the nastiest stuff in baseball.
I think Blake Treinen will take a big jump forward. So at this point, I would say better.
You never know about Joe Kelly. But I’m guessing the Dodgers won’t just release him unless he’s downright awful, which I don’t think he will be. His problem has always been control, not velocity or movement.
I agree with what Plunkett said. The only real need for the Dodgers is third base and a right handed bat. Turner seems to solve that issue, the alternatives not great. Gavin Lux and Chris Taylor will handle second.
Even with all the Padres moves, the Dodgers are still considered the best team in baseball with the Padres and Braves a close second and third.
Nice synopsis. I agree with all of this. The main points for the bullpen is that Trenien and Knebel are viable options at the back end of the pen if Kenley falters and one of the youngsters can step into a bullpen role if needed. Graterol and Gonzo are very good up and comers. Kolerek, Floro, Alexander, Kelly are all solid pieces. The NRIs and Cleavinger and the guys added to the 40 man before the rule 5 all have fantastic upside. I really can’t complain about the pen, but you might as well be greedy when you have so many guys still available and current players with options remaining.
The Padres made a lot of noise. They added 3 starting pitchers from outside their organization and traded away a couple of pitchers who were once top prospects in their system. I think these are marginal upgrades. I think Snell and Darvish are two of the most over-rated pitchers in baseball. Great stuff, but inconsistent results. I don’t think that Darvish or Musgrove would crack our rotation and Snell is iffy for me. I think May and Urias have a higher upside than Snell and even Gonsolin may have better years in the near future.
I feel the same way about the Braves with Morton and Smyly. I don’t think the Braves are as good offensively without Ozuna in the lineup and d’Arnaud isn’t going to be that great again next year. The offense will take a big step down while ours will like stay the same or get better.
I like that the Mets are getting better, but after finishing 8 games under 500 last year in a short season, are they going to be good enough to seriously challenge the Braves? Are the Nats doing enough to be a post-season threat? Lester, really?
Big news of the day is the Blue Jays signing Bratley after signing Springer. Wow! That’s a freaking statement! They were good last year, better this year, still need pitching.
I must agree Bulldog. I stated this yesterday after some research. The 3 starters the Padres added to their rotation have a combined CAREER record of 0-3 with 2 no decisions to the Dodgers. Musgrove has all 3 losses. Darvish and Snell have the no decisions. All of the Padres starters as now configured are a combined 2-9 against LA. That is Snell, Musgrove, Darvish, Paddack, Lamet, and Morejon. The Dodgers six, Buehler, Price, May, Gonsolin, Kershaw and Urias are a combined 31-10 against SD. All the losses belong to Kersh, 7 and May. 3. But Kersh has 2/3rds of the wins with 21. You go position by position and except for 3rd base, they do not have the edge at any position. SS is basically a push with Tatis and Seager. Unless they resign a veteran bullpen piece, their pen is young and inexperienced. Not saying they do not have some good arms down there. They do, but so do we.
I like that you pointed out their head to head numbers yesterday. But overall, Urias, Gonsolin and May were all better than Blake Snell in a lot of ways. Snell strikes out more batters, but they all made more innings per start with a lower whip. May and Gonsolin had a better ERA and Urias was only .03 runs higher.
Every offseason I start out hopeful and end up disappointed then turn to optimistic before Spring Training. I’m not perfectly objective, but not as much of a homer as some (MT). 😉 I have a level of trust towards AF, but the 2019 trade deadline prevents me from having complete trust when our biggest need of bullpen help was unfulfilled.
We started the offseason having few needs, so it’s no surprise there’s been little action. But, now people are coming off the big board and that hasn’t translated to any Dodgers news. We had some steady news a few weeks ago, but most of that seems to be players that may not help the 2021 Dodgers. Kahnle, Cleavenger, Morrow and Nelson and a slew of less known non-roster invite types is hardly “being pigs”. Another reason to be less trusting.
There’s still some very good bullpen arms out there and it sure looks like JT is coming back. I agree that there are some redundant pieces on the roster, you pointed out the obvious in Recks and Raley. But, even more obvious is the three headed monster of Muncy, Beaty and Rios.
I certainly don’t feel like this 40 man roster will be intact at the end of Spring.
One thing AF has not done is make many moves, other than releasing guys during spring training. Oh he has traded players like Garlick, who went to the Phils last season. But major moves, I cannot remember any. I think his roster shuffling will come just prior to the beginning of spring training. He will have 2 roster spots to play with when he can place Kahnle and Ferguson on the IL> I think the two most vulnerable pitchers to be DFA’d are Santana and Sborz. Raley and Reks are also borderline. Beatty might have a little more leverage since he is the one with the most MLB experience. As for Kelly, I think he is on a short leash. But I doubt any team wants his salary unless LA eats most of it.
I’m higher on Kelly than you are. I don’t see them cutting him and I don’t see other teams trading for him with the bevy of relief arms still available. I believe there will be a signing and a corresponding trade or cut before Spring as he’s done in the past. He seems to like to keep that roster full even when there’s moves to be made.
I am not as down on Kelly as some. I remember when he was good. And despite his rep and seeming ineffectiveness last season, he managed to get himself suspended and piss off the Astros at the same time, creating one of the all time great street murals in Los Angeles history in the process.
My buddy got a picture of himself in front of that Iconic mural, it’s right down the street from his house. Kelly had some odd numbers last year, but overall he was “effective”. Perhaps he’ll be better this year.
I think many people have misinterpreted what “being pigs” means. AF was not talking about wild spending and hoarding all the best players. He was talking about winning more World Series, and if there is ONE THING to learn, it’s that signing last years’ best relievers often leads to next year’s train wreck. Many here begged AF to sign or trade for Felipe Vasquez, Craig Kimbrell, Daniel Hudson, Sam Dyson, Adam Ottavino, Ken Giles, and on and on. All have been good at one time or another, some are out due to injury, jail, but most have not been very good. Past performance is no guarantee of anything. What I have learned is there is strength in numbers. The Dodgers have six starters (Kershaw, Buehler, Price, Urias, Gonsolin, May) and seven relievers (Jansen, Treinen, Floro, Gonzalez, Graterol, Knebel, Kolerk) who are just about locks (barring injury) to make the roster.
Then you add in Kelly, Alexander, Cleavinger, White, Nelson, Morrow, and a bunch of others, and where the hell are you going to stash them all? Don’t forget Gray, Santana, Sborz, Uceta, and Carrillo. Out of the aforementioned names, I’ll bet at least one steps up… I have no clue which one or ones. That’s why you have numbers.
The Dodgers have been the winningest team in baseball since AF took over and were it not for the ASStericks, they should have two Championships. They are the organization of the year and the organization most others aspire to be. The rhetoric has died down since I first championed AF when he was hired because the results speak for themselves. Not only does he want to win now, but he wants to keep winning – NO ONE HAS EVER DONE THAT!
When you are a pig in hoarding players, it costs you draft picks. Signing Mark Texieria cost the Yankees Mike Trout! When you trade prospects, your cupboards are bare later and you are starving for talent. You may not trust AF based upon no facts in evidence, just irrational fear, but I trust him a lot more than anyone who has never run an MLB team and who is held in the highest esteem by just about everyone… but armchair GM’s who (of course) can do it better.
Some of those players you mentioned would make great trade chips. I’d like to see AF make a trade for a rh 1b platoon player al la Freese using some of that depth and maybe Kelly.
Why would you want to platoon Muncy? He hits lefties slightly better than righties.
Yates and Springer both signed by the Jays, I would say that reduces JT’s suitors by at least one. They gave Springer 6/150. JT was at Lasorda’s memorial at the Stadium yesterday, along with Hatcher, Garvey, the Penguin and Karros.
Bear,
Do you know if MLB will allow opt outs this season?
I would think that might be on the table at some point. I would think it will depend on how smooth spring is and whether the disease gets out of hand again. MLB has ruled out early reporting to Spring training. Price has said he is going to be at spring training.
The disease IS out of hand. The reason I asked is that the Covid situation is a lot worse than it was last season. Those that opted out will face the same ‘at risk’ reasons they opted out last season. Has Price ever stated specifically why he opted out?
Only thing I ever read was for personal reasons. But he was not the only superstar who opted out. Posey with the Giants did too. As for the disease being out of control, it has morphed into a more viral strain that is for certain. The league is planning on a bubble type of spring training with a limited number of players being allowed in camp. The difference is last year there was no vaccine. This year there is.
He never stated why he was opting out, but I have heard that he might regret that decision. I’ll give you $30 Million reasons why he won’t opt-out again. Also, he is allegedly looking very good and feels the best he has in years.
I can’t wait to see him pitch. I’m really excited about David Price in the rotation next year. Another workhorse that will take stress off the bullpen which in turn will make the bullpen even better.
So that’s 12 relievers and 7 spots left. If Kelly starts out terrible do you think he gets waived?
Anything is possible. They dumped Carl Crawford’s salary one year and he was owed a lot more than Kelly. I do not think AF feels really tied down to anyone except maybe Jansen. But if he struggles, I look for AF to look for a replacement sooner rather than later. Whether that is internally or in trade, it remains to be seen.
I think Kelly will be gone unless he is a useful part of the bullpen. He was not last year. The Dodgers thought they could “fix him” but he fixed them. He is s a great guy – he just can’t pitch! That said, he will probably be lights out this season! Even blind squirrels find nuts occasionally.