Devil s Advocate

As Mark is prone to do, he has laid down the gauntlet.  If you don’t bow down to Doc and AF you need a STUPID tattoo?  I have supported both gentleman for the most part, but while I would have difficulty blaming AF too much (because of lack of insider knowledge), certainly Doc has opened himself up to scrutiny.

Let’s start with AF.  The Dodgers lost 2 healthy mid-rotation starting pitchers and one with health concerns over the winter (Ryu, Maeda, and Hill).  Maeda (1.6) and Ryu (1.1) both have better fWAR than do any Dodger.  Kershaw at 1.0 is the highest rated Dodger pitcher in fWAR. 

The pitcher AF acquired to help offset the loss of Ryu/Maeda/Hill in the winter, David Price, opted out of this crazy season, so the best the team could do was to go with their two co-Aces (Kersh and Buehler), two kids (Urias and May), and two hybrid pitchers (Strip and Wood).  Can’t blame AF for the circumstances of the season.  Their two Aces started out the season on the IL, and the team needed to insert Dustin May into the rotation. Tony Gonsolin was not ready to join the roster until later on.  Ross Stripling had already stepped into David Price’s spot in the rotation, leaving the initial rotation of the two kids the two hybrids, and Walker Buehler in the #5 spot in the rotation

After his first start, Wood went on the IL and Gonsolin started in his place.  Kershaw returned on August 2 and Gonsolin was optioned back to USC.  Since then, the rotation has been in flux with Kershaw. Buehler, Urias, May, Gonsolin, and Strip all making starts.  Since the end of August, Buehler has gone on the IL with blisters and Strip was traded.  Buehler has since returned from the IL for two starts, but is now back on the IL, again with blisters.  He is due to come off the IL during the Rockies series, and should have two starts heading into the playoffs.

As I am writing this, I have no idea how Dustin May’s foot is, but even if the foot is not broken, May will probably miss his next start and leave him with two starts to ramp up as well.  The Dodgers should be able to put a rotation together in the playoffs consisting of four of Kershaw, Buehler, Urias, Gonsolin, and May.  How healthy they will be, or how deep they can go, will be two huge questions.

While I was a strong advocate for a veteran starter, I cannot blame AF for not getting one.  There are multiple sources that indicated that the Dodgers were the other offer for Mike Clevinger, but San Diego increased their offer significantly and acquired him.  While the price San Diego paid was heavy, it does not in any way impede their future.  Their top prospects are still intact.  It is entirely possible that Cleveland did not want the top prospects AF was offering.  I also have no idea as to who Texas was asking for Lance Lynn, so how can I hold AF accountable for not acquiring him?  Since he was not traded, there can be no comparison.  So if anyone wants to blame AF, they better have a real understanding as to who Cleveland or Texas wanted.

However, I did have a problem with two areas that were not addressed; a RH bat off the bench and another RHRP.

RHRP – LAD was without two of their late inning high leverage relievers, and there is no indication as to whether Pedro Baez or Joe Kelly could return to resume those roles in a high quality return.  In addition, while the loss of Ross Stripling may be seen as a blessing by many, it was still a loss of a previously effective RH reliever in a long role.  There was one late inning RHRP who was not only available, but was also traded to SD…Trevor Rosenthal.  The cost to SD, was OF Edward Olivares and a PTBNL  I cannot believe that AF could not have offered a better package than Edward Olivares for a quality RHRP with excellent post season resume.  Although Olivares’ career with KC has started out well. With the questionable effectiveness going forward with KJ, Trevor Rosenthal would have been very beneficial.  Thus far for SD, Rosenthal has finished four games for the Padres, two save situations and two non-save situations.  He completed the two saves and in those four games, he has pitched 4.0 IP, allowing 0 runs, 2 hits, 1 walk, and 6 K’s.  With Rosenthal and Pomeranz, SD has a very good back end of the bullpen.

The second area that could (should) have been addressed is the RH bat off the bench.  The Dodgers are way too LH dominant (hitting and pitching). Currently there are 12 position players on the 28 man roster:

With two RH hitting catchers, that leaves Kike’, Betts, Pollock, and CT3 as the only RH bats.  Mookie and AJ should be in the lineup, and one of Kike’ or CT3 also figure to be a starter, leaving the one not in the lineup as the RH bat coming off the bench (probably Kike’).  While I am not as down on Kike’ as many are, I would prefer a David Freese type.  I was an advocate for Starling Marte, but I am not sure AZ would have traded him to LA or what LAD would do with him.  IMO he and AJ could have been the LF/DH combo.  I cannot blame AF for not acquiring Marte. It was probably out of his control. Moreland seems to be fitting in nicely filling in for Eric Hosmer.  He will return to DH once Hosmer gets back.  Rosenthal, Moreland, the two catchers (Nola and Castro) and Clevinger have significantly improved the Padres, while AF did nothing.  Time will tell whose strategy was better.  I am just not sure I can blame AF, and advocate to blow this team up as Jeff suggested. 

Now for Doc.  Doc is absolutely a players manager. He communicates well with the players and the media.  But his game strategy does leave to some bewilderment.  I am not going back to prior seasons.  Those have been chronicled and dissected enough. 

1. Not one Dodger pitcher has pitched enough innings to qualify for post season awards.  The max pitches that Doc appears to allow the pitcher to throw is mid 90’s, and that generally maxes out a 6.0 innings, if the pitcher gets that far.

• Clayton Kershaw – Average 6.0 IP/start and 89 pitches.  He does have two 7.0 IP (out of 7) games and has a pitch max of 99 (game 6)
• Julio Urias – Average 4.2 IP/start and 77 pitches.  He does have three 6.0 IP games (out of 8) and has a pitch max of 90 (game 2)
• Walker Buehler – Average 4.2 IP/start and 76 pitches.  He has one 6.0 IP game (out of 7) and has a pitch max of 92 (game 5)
• Dustin May – Average 5.0 IP/start and 79 pitches.  He has three 6.0 IP games (out of 8) and a pitch max of 88 (game 5)
• Tony Gonsolin – Average 4.2 IP/start and 74 pitches.  He has two 6.0 IP games (out of 6) and a pitch max of 84 (game 3)

The number of pitchers that have exceeded these parameters are substantial, and if history repeats, Dodger pitchers will not go deep into a playoff game.  Dodger pitchers are not lined up to be able to go 110-115 pitches per game unless they can increase their ramping up.  Will they?  Under Doc, I do not see how.  You cannot expect a pitcher to simply increase the number pitches during the playoffs without previously done so.  The relievers are already working overtime.  In the last five games, starters have gone 19 IP, while relievers have gone 27.0 IP. 

2. The placement of Mookie at 2B and Kike’ in RF made no sense.  There were 16 games to play, and the Dodgers had a 4.5 game lead over a vastly improved Padres team.  That is not enough to get arrogant.  Yes, I believe it was arrogant.  I do not think that it cost the Dodgers the game, but it seems it cost them some runs against.  The team has been sloppy, and now is the time for the team to start getting their edge, not just participating.  This reminds me of the Dodgers play in August/September of 2017.  At that time, the team was capable of putting the bad games behind them, and get back to playing elite baseball, and that is what happened. Will they be able to this year?  It is not always easy to turn it off and turn it on.

3. The placement of Muncy/Bellinger/Joc in the batting lineup is hurting the team.

That is important because the hitters in the middle of the order should be the ones driving in runs.  This team is not playing sound fundamental baseball since September and the continuance of Muncy and Belli in the 3^rd and 4^th position in the lineup has failed for the entire month.

• Belli – 7 games – .143/.226/.143/.369 – 4 for 28, no extra base hits, no RBI’s, 3BB, 4K
• Muncy – 9 games – .188/.381/.281/.662 – 6 for 32, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 10 BB, 11K
• Joc – 4 games – .077/.143/.308/.451 – 1 for 13, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1BB, 3K
• Mookie – 8 games – .314/.385/.571/.956 – 11 for 35, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
• Seager – 9 games – .324/.395/.649/1.044 – 12 for 37, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 5BB, 8K
• Pollock – 9 games – .368/.385/.632/1.016 – 14 for 38, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 1BB, 10K
• CT3 – 8 games – .290/.389/.484/.873 – 9 for 31, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 4BB, 7K
• Kike’ – 5 games – .353/.400/.588/.988 – 6 for 17, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 2BB, 1K
• Lux – 7 games – .192/.323/.462/.784 – 5 for 26, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 5BB, 7K
• Smith – 6 games – .450/.560/.800/1.360 – 9 for 20, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 5BB, 2K
• Barnes – 4 games – .154/.313/.231/.543 – 2 for 13, 1 DBL, 0 RBI, 3BB, 3K

Mookie and Corey were certainly doing their job getting on base, but neither Belli nor Muncy could drive them in.  Why would the manager continually place Belli and Muncy in the key RBI positions when they were not performing?  That is the manager’s job to make changes.  AJ, Smith, and CT3 should be batting higher. I recognize that Muncy did have 10 walks driving up his OBP.  However, he is in a run producing position in the batting lineup.  If he wants to be patient and look for walks instead of being aggressive, put him down in the order and let him get on base for Mookie and Corey to drive in.  But don’t harm the team by putting Belli and Muncy in the middle of the lineup with 1 extra base hit and 1 RBI for the month of September.

4. Why isn’t the manager working with the hitting coaches to move away from the all or nothing approach, and have the team bunt out of the shift, or play pepper and spraying the ball out of the shift.    I like the HR as much as anyone, but when the player is not barreling up, why not change the strategy to take advantage of the situation.  Isn’t it the manager’s job to implement a strategy for optimum results.  Yes Belli and Muncy and Joc are the power hitters, but when they have a combined 2 RBIs for the first 9 games of the month, something is not working.  Make the change.  Adjust.

5. When JT returns, the lineup changes should cease.  The team will have 13 games remaining when they meet the Padres on Monday.  Doc has the responsibility to fill out the lineups.  Put a consistent team on the field.  The batting lineup may change, but the defense needs to be consistent.  I have no say whatsoever, but my defense would be:

• 1B – Max
• 2B – CT3
• 3B – JT
• SS – Corey
• LF – AJ
• CF – Belli
• RF – Mookie
• C – Fresh Prince (Barnes catches Kershaw).

There is no reason to show diversification.  Keep players in the respective positions through the playoffs.

Summary, either the players are not good enough, or the manager is not putting the players in the best opportunity to win.  I think most on this site would agree that the LAD roster (overall) is second to none.  Then why is the team faltering against the worst team in the NL?  Why did they lose two out of three to a team the Padres swept?  If it is simply a team slump, why isn’t the manager shaking up the lineup moving Belli and Muncy way down in the lineup?  I may not have the communication skills of Dave Roberts, but I can certainly pencil in Belli and Muncy in the middle of the lineup regardless as to how they are playing.