Devil s Advocate
As Mark is prone to do, he has laid down the gauntlet. If you don’t bow down to Doc and AF you need a STUPID tattoo? I have supported both gentleman for the most part, but while I would have difficulty blaming AF too much (because of lack of insider knowledge), certainly Doc has opened himself up to scrutiny. Let’s start with AF. The Dodgers lost 2 healthy mid-rotation starting
As Mark is prone to do, he has laid down the gauntlet. If you don’t bow down to Doc and AF you need a STUPID tattoo? I have supported both gentleman for the most part, but while I would have difficulty blaming AF too much (because of lack of insider knowledge), certainly Doc has opened himself up to scrutiny.
Let’s start with AF. The Dodgers lost 2 healthy mid-rotation starting pitchers and one with health concerns over the winter (Ryu, Maeda, and Hill). Maeda (1.6) and Ryu (1.1) both have better fWAR than do any Dodger. Kershaw at 1.0 is the highest rated Dodger pitcher in fWAR.
The pitcher AF acquired to help offset the loss of Ryu/Maeda/Hill in the winter, David Price, opted out of this crazy season, so the best the team could do was to go with their two co-Aces (Kersh and Buehler), two kids (Urias and May), and two hybrid pitchers (Strip and Wood). Can’t blame AF for the circumstances of the season. Their two Aces started out the season on the IL, and the team needed to insert Dustin May into the rotation. Tony Gonsolin was not ready to join the roster until later on. Ross Stripling had already stepped into David Price’s spot in the rotation, leaving the initial rotation of the two kids the two hybrids, and Walker Buehler in the #5 spot in the rotation
After his first start, Wood went on the IL and Gonsolin started in his place. Kershaw returned on August 2 and Gonsolin was optioned back to USC. Since then, the rotation has been in flux with Kershaw. Buehler, Urias, May, Gonsolin, and Strip all making starts. Since the end of August, Buehler has gone on the IL with blisters and Strip was traded. Buehler has since returned from the IL for two starts, but is now back on the IL, again with blisters. He is due to come off the IL during the Rockies series, and should have two starts heading into the playoffs.
As I am writing this, I have no idea how Dustin May’s foot is, but even if the foot is not broken, May will probably miss his next start and leave him with two starts to ramp up as well. The Dodgers should be able to put a rotation together in the playoffs consisting of four of Kershaw, Buehler, Urias, Gonsolin, and May. How healthy they will be, or how deep they can go, will be two huge questions.
While I was a strong advocate for a veteran starter, I cannot blame AF for not getting one. There are multiple sources that indicated that the Dodgers were the other offer for Mike Clevinger, but San Diego increased their offer significantly and acquired him. While the price San Diego paid was heavy, it does not in any way impede their future. Their top prospects are still intact. It is entirely possible that Cleveland did not want the top prospects AF was offering. I also have no idea as to who Texas was asking for Lance Lynn, so how can I hold AF accountable for not acquiring him? Since he was not traded, there can be no comparison. So if anyone wants to blame AF, they better have a real understanding as to who Cleveland or Texas wanted.
However, I did have a problem with two areas that were not addressed; a RH bat off the bench and another RHRP.
RHRP – LAD was without two of their late inning high leverage relievers, and there is no indication as to whether Pedro Baez or Joe Kelly could return to resume those roles in a high quality return. In addition, while the loss of Ross Stripling may be seen as a blessing by many, it was still a loss of a previously effective RH reliever in a long role. There was one late inning RHRP who was not only available, but was also traded to SD…Trevor Rosenthal. The cost to SD, was OF Edward Olivares and a PTBNL I cannot believe that AF could not have offered a better package than Edward Olivares for a quality RHRP with excellent post season resume. Although Olivares’ career with KC has started out well. With the questionable effectiveness going forward with KJ, Trevor Rosenthal would have been very beneficial. Thus far for SD, Rosenthal has finished four games for the Padres, two save situations and two non-save situations. He completed the two saves and in those four games, he has pitched 4.0 IP, allowing 0 runs, 2 hits, 1 walk, and 6 K’s. With Rosenthal and Pomeranz, SD has a very good back end of the bullpen.
The second area that could (should) have been addressed is the RH bat off the bench. The Dodgers are way too LH dominant (hitting and pitching). Currently there are 12 position players on the 28 man roster:
With two RH hitting catchers, that leaves Kike’, Betts, Pollock, and CT3 as the only RH bats. Mookie and AJ should be in the lineup, and one of Kike’ or CT3 also figure to be a starter, leaving the one not in the lineup as the RH bat coming off the bench (probably Kike’). While I am not as down on Kike’ as many are, I would prefer a David Freese type. I was an advocate for Starling Marte, but I am not sure AZ would have traded him to LA or what LAD would do with him. IMO he and AJ could have been the LF/DH combo. I cannot blame AF for not acquiring Marte. It was probably out of his control. Moreland seems to be fitting in nicely filling in for Eric Hosmer. He will return to DH once Hosmer gets back. Rosenthal, Moreland, the two catchers (Nola and Castro) and Clevinger have significantly improved the Padres, while AF did nothing. Time will tell whose strategy was better. I am just not sure I can blame AF, and advocate to blow this team up as Jeff suggested.
Now for Doc. Doc is absolutely a players manager. He communicates well with the players and the media. But his game strategy does leave to some bewilderment. I am not going back to prior seasons. Those have been chronicled and dissected enough.
1. Not one Dodger pitcher has pitched enough innings to qualify for post season awards. The max pitches that Doc appears to allow the pitcher to throw is mid 90’s, and that generally maxes out a 6.0 innings, if the pitcher gets that far.
- Clayton Kershaw – Average 6.0 IP/start and 89 pitches. He does have two 7.0 IP (out of 7) games and has a pitch max of 99 (game 6)
- Julio Urias – Average 4.2 IP/start and 77 pitches. He does have three 6.0 IP games (out of 8) and has a pitch max of 90 (game 2)
- Walker Buehler – Average 4.2 IP/start and 76 pitches. He has one 6.0 IP game (out of 7) and has a pitch max of 92 (game 5)
- Dustin May – Average 5.0 IP/start and 79 pitches. He has three 6.0 IP games (out of 8) and a pitch max of 88 (game 5)
- Tony Gonsolin – Average 4.2 IP/start and 74 pitches. He has two 6.0 IP games (out of 6) and a pitch max of 84 (game 3)
The number of pitchers that have exceeded these parameters are substantial, and if history repeats, Dodger pitchers will not go deep into a playoff game. Dodger pitchers are not lined up to be able to go 110-115 pitches per game unless they can increase their ramping up. Will they? Under Doc, I do not see how. You cannot expect a pitcher to simply increase the number pitches during the playoffs without previously done so. The relievers are already working overtime. In the last five games, starters have gone 19 IP, while relievers have gone 27.0 IP.
2. The placement of Mookie at 2B and Kike’ in RF made no sense. There were 16 games to play, and the Dodgers had a 4.5 game lead over a vastly improved Padres team. That is not enough to get arrogant. Yes, I believe it was arrogant. I do not think that it cost the Dodgers the game, but it seems it cost them some runs against. The team has been sloppy, and now is the time for the team to start getting their edge, not just participating. This reminds me of the Dodgers play in August/September of 2017. At that time, the team was capable of putting the bad games behind them, and get back to playing elite baseball, and that is what happened. Will they be able to this year? It is not always easy to turn it off and turn it on.
3. The placement of Muncy/Bellinger/Joc in the batting lineup is hurting the team.
On 9/5 – Muncy batted 3rd and was hitting .209/.337/.446/.783 to start the game. Belli batted 4th and was hitting .226/.302/.466/.768 to start the game. Joc batted 5th and was hitting .191/.296/.415/.711 to start the game.
On 9/6 – Muncy batted 3rd and was hitting .203/.329/.434/.763. Belli batted 4th and was hitting .221/.301/.456/.758.
On 9/8 – Muncy batted 3rd and was hitting .200/.333/.428/.761. Belli batted 4th and was hitting .216/.294/.444/.739.
On 9/9 – Belli batted 4th and was hitting .217/.301/.439/.741. Muncy batted 5th and was hitting .201/.339/.423/.762.
On 9/10 – Muncy batted 4th and was hitting .205/.351/.424/.775. Belli batted 5th and was hitting .210/.293/.426/.719.
After the game Muncy was .199/.342/.410/.752 and Belli was .211/.292/.422/.714.
That is important because the hitters in the middle of the order should be the ones driving in runs. This team is not playing sound fundamental baseball since September and the continuance of Muncy and Belli in the 3rd and 4th position in the lineup has failed for the entire month.
- Belli – 7 games – .143/.226/.143/.369 – 4 for 28, no extra base hits, no RBI’s, 3BB, 4K
- Muncy – 9 games – .188/.381/.281/.662 – 6 for 32, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 10 BB, 11K
- Joc – 4 games – .077/.143/.308/.451 – 1 for 13, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1BB, 3K
- Mookie – 8 games – .314/.385/.571/.956 – 11 for 35, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
- Seager – 9 games – .324/.395/.649/1.044 – 12 for 37, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 5BB, 8K
- Pollock – 9 games – .368/.385/.632/1.016 – 14 for 38, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 1BB, 10K
- CT3 – 8 games – .290/.389/.484/.873 – 9 for 31, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 4BB, 7K
- Kike’ – 5 games – .353/.400/.588/.988 – 6 for 17, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 2BB, 1K
- Lux – 7 games – .192/.323/.462/.784 – 5 for 26, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 5BB, 7K
- Smith – 6 games – .450/.560/.800/1.360 – 9 for 20, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 5BB, 2K
- Barnes – 4 games – .154/.313/.231/.543 – 2 for 13, 1 DBL, 0 RBI, 3BB, 3K
Mookie and Corey were certainly doing their job getting on base, but neither Belli nor Muncy could drive them in. Why would the manager continually place Belli and Muncy in the key RBI positions when they were not performing? That is the manager’s job to make changes. AJ, Smith, and CT3 should be batting higher. I recognize that Muncy did have 10 walks driving up his OBP. However, he is in a run producing position in the batting lineup. If he wants to be patient and look for walks instead of being aggressive, put him down in the order and let him get on base for Mookie and Corey to drive in. But don’t harm the team by putting Belli and Muncy in the middle of the lineup with 1 extra base hit and 1 RBI for the month of September.
4. Why isn’t the manager working with the hitting coaches to move away from the all or nothing approach, and have the team bunt out of the shift, or play pepper and spraying the ball out of the shift. I like the HR as much as anyone, but when the player is not barreling up, why not change the strategy to take advantage of the situation. Isn’t it the manager’s job to implement a strategy for optimum results. Yes Belli and Muncy and Joc are the power hitters, but when they have a combined 2 RBIs for the first 9 games of the month, something is not working. Make the change. Adjust.
5. When JT returns, the lineup changes should cease. The team will have 13 games remaining when they meet the Padres on Monday. Doc has the responsibility to fill out the lineups. Put a consistent team on the field. The batting lineup may change, but the defense needs to be consistent. I have no say whatsoever, but my defense would be:
- 1B – Max
- 2B – CT3
- 3B – JT
- SS – Corey
- LF – AJ
- CF – Belli
- RF – Mookie
- C – Fresh Prince (Barnes catches Kershaw).
There is no reason to show diversification. Keep players in the respective positions through the playoffs.
Summary, either the players are not good enough, or the manager is not putting the players in the best opportunity to win. I think most on this site would agree that the LAD roster (overall) is second to none. Then why is the team faltering against the worst team in the NL? Why did they lose two out of three to a team the Padres swept? If it is simply a team slump, why isn’t the manager shaking up the lineup moving Belli and Muncy way down in the lineup? I may not have the communication skills of Dave Roberts, but I can certainly pencil in Belli and Muncy in the middle of the lineup regardless as to how they are playing.
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Disagree, not disagreeable
Kelly just pulled up to the Stadium in his Porsche, wait, he can afford a Porsche? Anyway, he got a rousing cheer from previously mentioned fans, and honked his horn in response to same.
Gotta practice some new tunes for tomorrow guys. Will watch the game, which is on Fox by the way, and then hit the hay. Have a couple of Haggard tunes I have not done before on the menu. And am working on Bobby Bare’s, The Jogger. Have a great night, and GO BIG BLUE!
It’s virtually the same stance he used last year. Give me your thoughts on that.
Yesterday Jeff D. wrote “As baseball aficionados we all know who should play, who should play where, what the best batting lineup should be, how to “correct” batting stances, etc. We are all more knowledgeable than the Presidents of Baseball Operations, or the managers, or the pitching coaches, or the hitting coaches. We have all played the game, some at advanced levels. But to my knowledge, nobody on this site has ever climbed the organizational ladder and achieved success at the MLB level.” That’s probably true enough. None of us are paid, professional coaches or managers. But to assume that one needs to be a MLB coach in order to understand, teach and critique the game is a fallacy. Actually some of the poorest coaching I got was in pro ball. Yes, The Dodgers have great player development and coaches. They have access to the latest technology and a staff of sabermetricians. They have all the advantages But I’m here to tell you that great coaching is done in many places by many different guys that aren’t in MLB.
There is no “secret” to the game that only the pro coaches and GMs knows. There are no secret ways to hit or pitch or play the game that only the blessed few know about. Many of us played and coached for years. We watched, we went to clinics, we talked and shared ideas. I’ve watched and coached thousands of games. I know how Driveline works. I’ve spent time personally with Tom House. I’ve listen to Orel on how to pitch. I’ve watch all the “latest” ways to hit from Ted Williams through Walt Hriniak, Charley Lau, Tony Gwynn, Barry Bonds and Robert Van Scoyoc. Lots of different ways on how to do the same thing. For pitching it all comes down to BALANCE, POSTURE and ALIGNMENT. What movements aid a player into getting the baseball to a consistent front foot strike and release point , safely. Same with hitting. What moves get the barrel to the ball most consistently? There are lots of ways to do things. Many just window dressing or cosmetic. But there are some critical, non-negotiable spots for both hitters and pitchers to be in to be successful. And to not risk injury. You don’t have to be a Big League coach to know these, They aren’t secrets.
I know plenty of excellent coaches that chose other paths then moving up the ranks as ‘Pro” coaches. I used my signing bonus to get a college degree (2 in fact). With my degrees, I had a couple of career paths that I enjoyed. I would have had to give give those up to move up the ladder in organized baseball. I know guys that have done it. They were willing to start young and move early and often to follow that dream. And it wasn’t my dream. Just like a player they had to be willing to go anywhere and do anything to stay in baseball. Many couldn’t do much else. I know young coaches who had to be single or have a very understanding wife to change positions yearly, even in amateur ball. The Joke was “where’s Hal this year?” Hal would take any job. I didn’t lack information about the game. I lacked the willingness to accept that lifestyle. Hey I found a way to coach kids for 30 years.
The best coaches might be successful college coaches. The Rod Dedeaux’s, Ron Polks, Paul Mainieri, Pat Caseys and my favorite Ed Cheff. Who’s Ed Cheff you ask? Best coach I ever saw. Ed coached at Lewis Clark State in Idaho and won 16 NAIA World Series titles for 1977 to 2010. Now retired, Ed knows more baseball than anybody I’ve ever known. I would talk to him and he would take a fundamental or play and take it to the next level with his own spin. And I’d think “why didn’t I think of that”. It seemed so obvious. These guys are great teachers and were successful with less then major league talent. But they didn’t know any deep dark secrets to success.
So, I actually feel pretty qualified when I point out certain things. One is Belli’s stance. As the pictures showed yesterday, there are more ways then 1 to do things, like stance. I don’t really care if the guys has the bat up his ……. nose with his stance as long as he has an uncomplicated trigger and gets it into the correct launch position when the bell rings. Every guy in the pictures had a steady head position. Some east and west movement is tolerable but the north – south head bob is a killer. Eyes moving, up and down, prior to launch complicates seeing the ball and consistency. And why does Belli’s head move prior to load? Because he stands straight up and his head is moving down late to get to his launch position. It’s an unnecessary move. Just start there. Bend your knees.
Now I’m sure this has been suggested and Belli doesn’t want to. And It’s likely too late for this season. It’s another winter project.
Jeff D. said above
“5. When JT returns, the lineup changes should cease. The team will have 13 games remaining when they meet the Padres on Monday. Doc has the responsibility to fill out the lineups. Put a consistent team on the field. The batting lineup may change, but the defense needs to be consistent. I have no say whatsoever, but my defense would be:
1B – Max
2B – CT3
3B – JT
SS – Corey
LF – AJ
CF – Belli
RF – Mookie
C – Fresh Prince (Barnes catches Kershaw).
There is no reason to show diversification. Keep players in the respective positions through the playoffs.”
I said 2 days ago – “Players like predictability. They like to know when they will play. They like to know where they play. They would like a predictable batting order. They won’t say it to the media.
It’s all in preparation for the stretch run and getting ready for the playoffs. We pulled this bulls**t last year and you may remember how we did in the playoffs.”
I’m not second guessing every move Doc and AF make. I know we have injuries but I don’t like how we are preparing for the post season. And that’s been my major complaint to a couple of years now. IMO
Tonight’s lineup:
Betts RF
Seager SS
Pollock LF
Muncy 3B
Smith C
Bellinger 1B
Taylor CF
Hernandez 2B
Lux DH
I win! Sborz to the alternate site! Damn I am good. LOL……..
Truth Hurts. I live in Meridian, Idaho. Near Boise, Idaho.
I have to start by saying I agree with everything being said on this blog. From the sunshine spreaders thru the doom and gloom groaners. All valid takes, or at least grounds exist for the takes. I think that’s why this team is so fun to follow – multi layers of emotions they can bring out of you. Most importantly hope.
In the spirit of accepting contradicting views, I’m going to offer some. I think we need to express more patience at the moment. I’ve literally read articles/comments from same folks severely questioning the makeup of the team, followed by comments a week later praising the team as the best in baseball three games later – particularly after the first SD series. I’m guessing the shortened, heightened season is short circuiting our better senses at times. Basically, 50 games into a season, we should be in the middle of May right now, where the alarm would normally be dealt with more patiently. That’s the not reality this year, of course, and instead we’re heading down the main stretch. It might be the reality, but try convincing that to a player and his struggles. Just because the reality of the season is sped up, doesn’t mean the player can speed up breaking a slump. There are a myriad of examples over the recent years of this team and it’s players, surviving then persevering. They deserve the benefit of doubt and maybe it’s just not our year. No matter, we’ve got the team to win it next year and in the years after.
Now to state something that totally flies in the face of what I just wrote. This team has been trending down since 2017. It’s right there in the record. We nearly reached the apex of winning a WS, pushing to game 7 in 2017. Next year, not quite as good to Game 5. Followed, by making the post season and getting booted in the first round in 5 games. The way it’s trending, we might not get past game 3 of the first round this year. And yet, each successive year since 2017 we’ve (arguably) improved our talent on paper either with acquisitions or player development. What’s the deal? I’d suggest it’s because we’re largely a swing big roster. Literally – with so many guys swinging for moon shots and figuratively – with a collection of players who are streaky vs steady Eddie. If we can time the post season so our players are largely hot, we’d probably sweep thru the playoffs, but that’s not really something to be controlled. If we suffer another disappointing playoff exit this year, it might be time to re-evaluate the construction of the roster and team building approach, perhaps tipping the balance a little more to the steady side. After all, patience is good, but you can only try the same thing so many times if the ultimate mission isn’t being accomplished.
So, I am glad you posted this topic today. I have not been able to read all posts so I may be redundant but nobody responds anyway so here goes.
I think doc makes many blunders but I believe pitch count is an organizational decision. We been doing it year after year and our pitchers will not go deep in the playoffs because they can’t.
Second, our all or nothing approach i think is another organizational decision and it will not change in the playoffs this is who we are.
Third, I don’t personally blame doc for putting bellinger and muncy in the middle of the lineup. I mean muncy best stats are at 3 in the order and bellinger is the reigning mvp. When turner is back muncy should move out of the 3.
4th I totally agree with the dodger arrogance moving Betts to second. I don’t know who is responsible but it seems like we enjoy thinking out of the box. But moving Betts is not as bad as the joc 1b experiment or muncy batting leadoff just plain dumb. Betts can play second but the timing and arrogance this late has got to have you shaking your head.
It seems that whoever just decides we will do this for no apparent reason. Experimenting when you should have your head down trying to solidify. The Dodgers all or nothing, starters not going deep I don’t know if that is a winning philosophy but it is ours. So far, not so good in the playoffs. Getting Kelly and Baez back should help the bullpen. Whether AF should have picked somebody up well when price opted out a 3rd pitcher should have been obvious but not easy to do. I think our bullpen is better than previous years if they are not totally burnt out.
I agree with Mark on one thing we have the players so they have to execute. If we can have a playoff without doc being the topic we might get over the hump. Our all or nothing philosophy is certainly a question mark.
Not disputing how good you are Bear but it was Santana.
Mic’ing Muncy? Who ok’d that move? He’s got enough to think about.
Some very interesting reads in here today. Thanks to all.
I don’t know if any of you caught this but Santana was optioned not Sborz. I like that because I know Sborz is not gonna make the playoff roster and I was affraid Santana would.
I’m not sure what it is Cody is looking for. If you stand on top of the plate it must be to reach the outer edge with your barrel. He just looked at 2 thigh high fastballs that were right on that outer edge. Didn’t even offer. wtf?
very good 5 innings by Urias. But I despair, sometimes of how difficult is for him to get the third strike or get outs
That was clearly one of the best games Julio Urias has pitched. He looked confident. Got the ball back and went after the batter with the next pitch. It appeared that he was just concentrating on each pitch and not trying to overthink it. He mixed his pitches well. Very well done.
Center cut fastballs at 91 and Bellinger and Muncy can’t even put the ball in play! This is unbelievable!
Not to jinx anything, but so far this is a great day to be a Dodger. We look pretty good on the field. Urias, making strides, comfortably going 6 and finding the strike zone more consistently. Sounds like good news on May and Buehler.
That Betts/Seager 5th run combination was just beautiful baseball. Get on by walk. Take a base. Aggressive running leads to scoring via an opposite field single. Maybe its boring to some, but I love it and even prefer it to say, Betts striking out and Seager solo homering. Same net effect, but the former is personally more entertaining. If we did this up and down the lineup we’d never lose a game. Well, maybe a couple.
Well, that was the Urias Mark has raved about. Nice solid six innings. Some good things happening tonight, and a couple keeping the status quo. Muncy 3 K’s in 3 at bats. Missing balls he should crush. Bellinger his first AB did what we all have been asking, took the ball where it was pitched and just missed hitting it out. But the 2 at bats since, disappointing. Kike looked great his first at bat, and then not so great, but his defense has been outstanding. Lakers win and now are in the Western Conference finals.
Bellinger looks horrible. Don’t understand his desire to stand so close to the plate. He has a huge hole in his swing up and tight in the strike zone and can’t seem to make an adjustment. Come on RVS get him straightened out.
KJ is no longer a trusted “automatic save” closer. His pitches don’t miss bats and he is a heart attack each time he pitches to close out a game. Horrible
Jansen. Get him out of there.
Take out this gabage of picher before lost the game. I dont why Doc Is so nice whit the players
I have been Dodgers all my life, but tonight I wish they lose the game, to see if they will finally get rid of Jensen …. He is no longer the closer, when are they going to understand?
Are you still proud that the Dodgers have the best record?
Muncy. Arrrgh.
Gas Can Jansen strikes again. Why Doc did not get someone up after the first hit is beyond me. I am totally fed up with the guy. If they lose this, it is on Roberts for leaving him in.