Conventional Wisdom is Not Always Right

Dave Roberts

Conventional Wisdom: Fire Dave Roberts

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Many Dodger Fans blame Dave Roberts for the loss in Game 4 of the NLCS because he took Tyler Anderson out after five excellent innings. Anderson had only allowed two hits and thrown 86 pitches, and the Dodgers were ahead 2-0! What if Roberts had let Tyler Anderson pitch the 6th inning? Maybe he would have set the Padres down in order, but what if he gave up a couple or three runs? Well, of course, Roberts would have been the reason the Dodgers lost. “Roberts is an Idiot for leaving Anderson in.” I can hear it now. It’s the same narrative for those whose minds are slanted against Doc. Your job is so easy… and predictable. It’s always Doc’s fault… no matter what he does!

Anyway, for the 2022 season, here are Tyler Anderson’s ERA’s by innings:

1. 3.21 ERA – he has some trouble in the first…
2. 2.25
3. 2.25
4. 2.89
5. 1.26
6. 4.43

So, if Doc had left Anderson in and he gave up some runs (you can see his ERA in the 6th is more than three times what it is in the 5th), he would have still been an idiot… and you would still be a genius! Second guessers are never wrong. See what I am saying. Looking forward from the 5th inning, it WAS the right decision. It’s the playoffs. Tensions are high, and the stakes are tightened. Looking back, it WAS the Wrong Decision. The Dodger bullpen failed Doc for one of the few times in 2022.

I am not a fan of Dave Roberts, but I also realize he is one of the best and is THE BEST manager when it comes to winning records. I would not have minded seeing him replaced after this loss, but he was not the reason the Dodgers lost to the Padres. It was on the players. Speaking of players, let’s look at a few and what their roles might be going forward.

James Outman

Conventional Wisdom: Outman is the next best thing!

“Sweet Baby James” Outman is the “Flavor of the Week” for many fans. They see that he hit .462 with a 1.409 OPS in 13 ABs, and they evidently assume that is exactly what he will be. They ignore the fact that he struck out 44% of the time. The Dodgers know something that you don’t: That was pure, blind luck. James Outman will never be any more than a 4th or 5th outfielder. I’m not saying that you don’t need guys like James – I am saying he is not a starter! He is athletic, and there’s a reason why AF did not bring him back after his initial call-up: To Keep his trade value high – He only could devalue himself.

In 473 ABs in the Minors last season, he hit .294 while OPS’ing .978. He hit 31 HR, 31 Doubles, and 7 Triples. He also struck out 152 times! Yikes! The last time the Dodgers had a player like this was a fellow named Joc Pederson, who hit .303 with 1.016 OPS to go along with 33 HR in the minors. Joc also struck out 149 times in 446 ABs. I said that Joc would never be anything better than a 4th outfielder. He did have his moments, but that is exactly what he is.

Let’s look at Cody Bellinger. In his last full minor league season, he hit .271 in 410 ABs and struck out 94 times. That went up to 146 strikeouts in his rookie year. If James Outman played every day, he would strike out over 200 times at the Major League Level. He might make the team, but it will be as a sub. Chicks dig the long ball – so do fans, but the Dodgers have plenty of long-ball threats. What this team needs is someone with bat-to-ball skills, which leads us to…

Miguel Vargas

Conventional Wisdom: Not Enough Power and No Position

Some want to send him back to AAA because he hit .170 in 46 ABs on the MLB Level, and so he can develop more power. Send him down so he can develop more power? Yeah, that will work. Miguel Vargas is a 15 – 18 HR guy right about now. As he matures, he might be a 25-30 HR guy, but he has surprising power right now. Watch this and tell me he has no power:

The fact of the matter is that guys who strike out less are much less susceptible to long slumps because they put the ball in play. You can have good luck or bad luck when you hit a ball, but when you strike out, you only have bad luck! If you really want to see Vargas’ skills watch this next clip. He hits a Sac Fly to drive in a run and then just goes with the pitch right up the middle to drive in two. Outman would have been swinging like a door!

Does it seem that every Dodger fan bitches about the Three Outcomes Players, and then they want more? Absurd! The Dodgers need a bat like Miguel Vargas in the lineup. Fewer strikeouts, not more. He has shown he is a willing situational hitter. He is more like Freddie Freeman than James Outman. James Outman may have a nice career as a sub. Miguel will be an All-Star! Play him at 3B or LF, and he will be solid. If he knows he will play either 3B or LF, he will work and become an above-average defender.

Cody Bellinger

Conventional Wisdom: Move on From Bellinger

I cannot think of another player who has gone from the Penthouse to the Outhouse so quickly. Some fans like to say that he really only had a season and a half of good baseball. That is ludicrous! Let’s look at his stats.

• 2017 – 480 ABs – 39 HR/.933 OPS (ROY)
• 2018 – 557 ABs – 25 HR/.813 OPS (sophomore jinx)
• 2019 – 558 ABs – 47 HR/1.035 OPS (MVP)
• 2020 – 213 ABs – 12 HR/.788 OPS
• 2021 – 315 ABs – 10 HR/.542 OPS
• 2022 – 504 ABs – 19 HR/.654 OPS

Some fans (wrongly) say, “Well, he had a bad second half to 2019.” Really? Let’s look at the facts: Pre-All-Star Game 2019, Cody had an “otherworldly” 1.124 OPS. In the second half, his OPS was .917. In case you don’t know or don’t remember, an OPS over .900 is considered “Superstar Status.” He started down the toilet in 2020 (.788 OPS – still better than average), and then in 2021, his OPS slipped to .542 as he was injured. He raised it 110 points in 2022, but was most pathetic.

At age 27, Cody Bellinger has 152 HR, a ROY Award, and an MVP Award. I don’t know what to expect. Should he stay, or should he go? I don’t know. I do know he is among the best (if not THE BEST) defensive CF’er in baseball. I also know he looked lost most of the time. I know his teammates love him and that he works hard. He is not a knucklehead, but offensively, he looks overmatched. I also believe that if you have done it before, you can do it again. What to do? I would love to give him another year, but I understand why the Dodgers might not do that. It would just hurt a lot to see him pick up another MVP on another team. I am not saying he will be that guy again, but I am not writing him off. This is what is called a conundrum.

Hanser Alberto

Conventional Wisdom: Buy him out for $250,000

Hanser Alberto did not deliver the season Andrew Friedman envisioned. He only had 159 ABs and hit just .244 after hitting .305 in 2019, .283 in 2020, and .270 in 2021. He did hit .279 against LHP but it was with little power. For his career, he has averaged .323 against LHP with a .341 OB%. I choose to think that last year was an outlier. Without the shift being utilized and with a new season, I think Alberto will hit closer to his career numbers than last year’s numbers.

He also brings tremendous “intangibles” to the dance. He is a lively, enthusiastic teammate who keeps the dugout “loose.” If he can get back to his career averages (and why not?) he will be part of a very solid bench. He has a contract option for two years. I would pay him and keep him on the team.

Trayce Thompson

Conventional Wisdom: Bring him back as the CF or LF

The Dodgers and Trayce caught “Lightening in a Bottle” in 2022. He will be 32 next season and has never come close to having a partial season as good as he did in 2022. I don’t want to rain on his parade, but how many players have more strikeouts than hits and bases on balls combined? Trayce struck out 86 times in 239 PAs. That’s 36.5%! Joey Gallo was at 38.8%. CT3 was at 35.2%. Cody Bellinger was 27.3%. James Outman was 43.8%. Trayce Thompson was lucky – pure and simple. Don’t count on it happening again! At best, Tyayce is a 4th or 5th outfielder and a great LA “feel-good story.” We are all suckers for one of those. I simply cannot see having Thompson and Outman as spare outfielders (especially if CT3 is on that bench too). Yes, they are a L-R combo, but the strikeout numbers are alarming! A smart guy by the name of Tanner Bell, almost ten years ago, figured this out:

“All other factors held constant, a 5% increase in strikeout rate will result in roughly a 16 to 18 point drop in batting average“

Chris Taylor

Conventional Wisdom: He is an Excellent Swiss Army Knife

Yes, CT3 can play all outfield positions and most infield positions very effectively. He has not really been a sub for LA as he has averaged about 500 AB’s a year. If he is a sub and you don’t have strikeout artists like Outman, Thompson, and Gallo on the Bench with him, then he could be a nice swiss army knife, but your entire bench cannot be a strikeout machine. Last year’s bench with Gallo, Thompson, and Taylor was exactly that. If you add Outman, it becomes much worse. Most of these guys cannot be on the team in 2023.

Lots of Dodger fans have pined for Brandon Drury, and he is an option for a bench role and could be signed as a free agent. He is not as good defensively as CT3, but he strikes out less, while being injured more. It seems unlikely that CT3 can be traded so maybe a guy like Drury could fill a nice bench role. The problem is he just had his career year, and someone will offer him a starting spot when he is only a bench player.

Andrew Heaney

Conventional Wisdom: He Gives up too many HR. Let him go.

Andrew Heaney pitched for the Yankees in 2021 and had a 7.32 ERA. The Dodgers turned him into a two-pitch pitcher, and the results were evident. He put up a 3.10 ERA in 73 IP. He allowed 60 hits and just 19 BB. He struck out 110 batters! 110 in 73 IP. He did give up 14 HR, but many were of the solo type… thus the 3.10 ERA. Letting him go is tantamount to throwing the baby out with the bathwater! Now, if someone wants to overpay, then so be it, but to just want him gone because he gave up a few HR ignores a lot of positives. I’ll say it again, “Progress is not linear!“

His strikeouts per 9 innings pitched was #11 in all of baseball. If you only counted starting pitchers, Heaney was #3 in strikeouts per 9 innings. Only Spencer Strider and Jacob deGrom were better. Among relievers, he was #9 in Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched.

The Dodgers have turned Andrew Heaney into a two-pitch pitcher with a fastball and a sweeping slider. After his final DL stint, his control was not as sharp, and that is where he gave up most of his Home Runs. Heaney now has incredible “swing-and-miss stuff.” As he approaches his age 32 season, I think he would be extremely effective as a reliever. Maybe his body would be more able to handle pitching an inning or two three or four times a week than as a starter. I would try and convince Andrew to move to the bullpen… maybe even as a closer. His stuff is way too filthy.

MLB TRADE RUMORS is high on Heaney and says this:

When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.“

Justin Turner

Conventional Wisdom: At age 38, Father Time has Caught up to JT – Let him walk

It sure looked that way last year as JT hit .197 in March and April, .240 in May, and .236 in June, but then he caught on fire and hit .400 in July, .314 in August, and .322 in September. He struck out just 89 times in 532 Plate Appearances. There is always a risk that he will just suddenly “lose it,” but I don’t think it will happen in 2023. I would exercise the $16 million, and he becomes the prime DH, with Max Muncy being the everyday 3B. He can relieve Max at 3B every couple of weeks and DH 5 or 6 days a week. If you leave Max at 3B, he will be very much above average. He takes his defense seriously. He’s no Aernado, but he would be solid if he didn’t have to move all over the diamond.

In Conclusion…

Only one of James Outman, CT3, and Trayce Thompson make the team in my world. I would be tempted to bring back Cody Bellinger, Hanser Alberto, Tyler Anderson, and Andrew Heaney (as a reliever). So many fans look in the rearview mirror – that shows you who might have been good LAST year. I prefer to look out of the windshield. I want the guy who is going to be good Next Year. That includes Miguel Vargas.

I prefer to keep Gavin Lux at 2B, but if all the shortstops are overpriced, there may be no other choice. There are so many options, and that includes free agents like Nimmo, Pillar, Kiermaier, Pollock, Haniger, and others. Clayton Kershaw is a question mark: Texas or LA? Who knows? Would the Dodgers put the QO on him?

What happens to Danny Duffy?

Jimmy Nelson is intriguing.

There is a lot of ground to cover, including what five players come off the roster to open up spots for Mike Busch, Andy Pages, Diego Cartaya, Jose Ramos, and Jonny DeLuca? The Dodgers still could lose 3 or 4 players to the Rule 5 Draft, including Carlos Duran, Ryan Noda, Hunter Feduccia, and Hyun-il Choi.

And… of course, the 800-pound gorilla in the room is Trevor Bauer, whom we should be hearing about before December. Stay tuned for the Wild Ride!

Just for Fun…

There are rumors out of Boston that Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo are either not happy or may be available. Devers is not a great 3B but is serviceable. Both are LH.

So, do not re-sign Justin Turner.

Do not sign Bellinger.

Trade Mike Busch, Miguel Vargas, Johnny Deluca, and Dalton Rushing to Boston for Devers and Verdugo.

Sign Judge.

Lineup:

1. Lux SS (L)
2. Betts 2B (R)
3. Freeman 1B (L)
4. Judge RF (R)
5. Devers DH (L)
6. Smith C (R)
7. Muncy 3B (L)
8. Verdugo CF (L) He has to lose some weight
9. Taylor LF (R)

Not saying it is something I would do. Just brainstorming! It is not a great defensive team, but the offense might average 7 runs a game. However, I hate trading all that… so I say NO! That’s a definite maybe! This is the first hair-brained traded idea of the offseason. Let it begin, and never say the word “ASSTROS” again…. ever!

Arizona Fall League Update

• Andy Pages is hitting .301 while OPS’ing .891. He has 4 HR and 11 RBI after a very slow start.
• After a hot start, Jose Ramos has slumped to .246. It’s obvious they are working on his swing/stance.
• Emmet Sheehan has a 4.70 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. It is apparent to me that they are working on a new pitch or grip with him.
• Hyun-il Choi has pitched 11 innings with a 6.35 ERA after missing the entire 2022 season. I have no idea what is going on here.
• Project Tanner Dodson has a 7.15 ERA and a 1.94 WHIP. He is being converted to a pitcher… maybe.
• Ben Harris has no idea where his pitches are going. In 9 IP, he has struck out 9, walked 13, and allowed ten runs – 7.71 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP.

The Fall All-Star Game is today at 2 PM. Andy Pages is the only Dodger on the team. Other than Emmet Sheehan, the rest of the Dodgers have looked pathetic. This is the worst bunch I have ever seen! Last night they held the HR Derby. Pages was in it, but it was won by Robert Perez, Jr.

The Cheaters

But the biggest little, self-righteous, lying cheater is this punk:

Of course, Rob Manfred did not have the guts to do what he should have with massive evidence but then he suspends Trevor Bauer? I hope the Bauer suspension fits right up his….

Justin Turer vs. 95+ MPH Fastballs

Source: The Athletic