Beyond the Statistics
Last night s comeback victory was typical of how the Dodgers have came back to win all year, but this one was different in that Dave Roberts did not try and exploit the usual matchups. It was not an analytic driven win. As much as some may dislike, it was a win that was made on gut feelings as much as analytics. I thought Dave should have left Rich Hill in
Last night’s comeback victory was typical of how the Dodgers have came back to win all year, but this one was different in that Dave Roberts did not try and exploit the usual matchups. It was not an analytic driven win. As much as some may dislike, it was a win that was made on “gut feelings” as much as analytics. I thought Dave should have left Rich Hill in the game until it looked like he had lost it. He clearly hadn’t lost it after 4 innings. Doc did leave Alex Wood in for 5.2 innings while he was throwing a no hitter, but when he gave up his first hit (which happened to be a Big Fly), Dave yanked him. I thought that was a good call.
However, the lineup was not analytics driven as the Dodgers had 6 RH batters in the lineup against a RH pitcher. Using sabermetrics, you might have seen Utley instead of Forsythe, Ethier instead of Hernandez or Grandal in place of Barnes. One thing this lineup did is improve the defense. Andre Ethier is a liability in LF and Logan Forsythe is much better than Chase Utley. Look, I am all for statistical analysis and all the possibilities that it brings, but it was a breath of fresh air to see Dave Roberts, when the Dodgers were down 2-1 go with his “gut” and not purely follow the numbers.
Sometimes, you just have to change it up and trust the guys you put out there. When they see the trust you place in them, they often rise to the occasion. Barnes, Hernandez and Forsythe all played roles in winning that game, but no one came up bigger than Cody Bellinger who was stone-cold, dead and buried by many, and Joc Pederson, whose struggles have been well documented. Joc appears to have accepted that what he was doing was not working. He is evolving and it appears to be working. Wouldn’t if be wonderful to see him get a few more hits and win the Series MVP Award? Talk about coming full circle.
I knew Bellinger would adjust – it took him some time, but he will be a force the rest of the way. Alex Wood was amazing, especially considering how little he has pitched in the last 30 days. If the series goes 7, I would think he might be available to pitch a couple of innings, if needed. He was not awed by the Big Stage and neither was Charlie Morton. That guy pitched one amazing game too. Brandon Morrow and Tony Watson did their part, but I do not want to see Doc bring Kenley in for a 6 out save. His ERA is 4.50 against the Astros. He is not automatic against them.
Now, it’s back to Kershaw and Keuchel tonight. This is Clayton’s opportunity to throw that playoff monkey off his back once and for all. He needs to pitch the game of his life. No pressure! Just like last time. A dominate performance by Clayton tonight with the team headed back to LA would be HUGE! My only question is: Will we see Joc at DH again, or will it be Grandal or Ethier (that would defy the analytics, but maybe it all does)?
Photocredit: Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers
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Discussion (64)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Very important game because if dodgers win, they take out VElander of the equation.
Ithink that the team had not been playing good game 2, 3, 4 in fact Ithink astros did not win gsme 2 y 3 dodgers lost them insted.
Good to see Cody with small sewing and hit to the otber side. I dont know why he takes toomany time to underten that
Dodges have to bsck to thebases. Patient in hit box, run the bases good, make grest defense, and piching…thats mode buildt this team
Go DODGERS
Thank God for Alex Wood! He didn’t have his good fastball and he struggled with his control, but he made pitches when he had to and he battled every hitter. What a great job and when we really needed it. THANK YOU ALEX!
While I am at it, Great game Logan. I didn’t know you could play so well. Keep it up.
I would love for the Dodgers to score early and take to Houston fan out of it. It would also help to limit my stress level. Good luck to us all tonight. Thanks again Dodgers for lifting my spirits and giving me hope.
I don’t see Joc in the lineup today given his struggles against lefthanders. Culberson in the lineup makes a lot of sense to me, if he’s a little banged up, JT at DH makes sense as well.
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Maybe part of Doc’s decisions on who to play yesterday was anatomically based, but statistical analysis probably also played a role.
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Even though he hasn’t been hitting, Austin Barnes does have reverse splits against righthanders, and is more likely to make contact than the struggling Grandal. Utley just hasn’t been hitting, and like Ethier doesn’t seem capable of catching up to velocity anymore. Statistically speaking, Doc probably values the importance of good defense, which largely supports starting Forsythe and Kike. Also, Forsythe has consistently shown the ability to get on base all year, and Kike’s ABs against righthsnders have been better lately, with him showing more of a willingness to hit to right field.
The HR that Kenley surrender last night was not hit off his cutter, but instead came off a hanging slider. Not sure if that will affect him in any way.
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Maybe After having faced Keuchel once before will help the Dodgers to lay off all the stuff he throws outside the strike-zone, and force him into it more often, in counts favorable to the hitters.
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Just want to see the Dodgers putting up some runs tonight. Early and often would be nice.
I think Forsythe will be with the Dodgers next year. Grandal will be traded. He will not want to be the back up. Like AC I have no feeling about Joc. I prefer Toles and Verdugo fight it out for LF. The loser would be the 4th outfielder. It just seams to me that Joc has not adjusted. He needs a change of scenery.
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I hope Ryu stays with the Dodgers. Remember next year will be his 2nd year after his shoulder surgery. The nice thing about Maeda and Wood in the starting line up next year, they are both great out of the pen. Beuhler will be a nice addition to the starting line up. I would like to see the Dodgers keep Morrow and Watson if the price is right. Again I would like to see Baez stay only if they teach him a good curve ball or slider and he will use it.
Potentially huge article on the baseballs and sliders (including Darvish and Jansen)
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Open on www.si.comhttps://www.si.com/mlb/2017/10/29/world-series-baseballs-leather-justin-verlander-yu-darvish-ken-giles-kenley-jansenI am guessing that Kershaw comes out in attack mode today, and for the first time in years, under no pressure to save our season in one game. I think the bats will reflect that too, they have to feel more relaxed knowing that they are going back to Dodger Stadium no matter what. By the way, in all the hoopla about how dynamic the Astros lineup is, They have only scored 3 runs since the 2nd inning of Game 3. Hmmmm….
Good call about JT possibly being DH today. I first assumed Seager would DH, to rest the back, and Culby play ss. But Seager does seem totally healthy.
I also wonder if Joc, who’s swinging much better, would get a shot at DH’ing vs the leftie today?
We’ll find out
AC/Mark – R U out there??? Where does Pederson & Wood fit in the 2018 Dodger plans in your estimation. I know pitching and returning OF’s are in abundance…
Wife had to put on my BP cuff after the 4th. She checked at the top of every inning…
Hope J.T. is OK and the Kid has turned the corner on his slump…
All hands on deck tonite…
Dodgerpatch recently posted, incorrectly:
“To validate your statistically fact based argument you’re using a sample size of one?
That was dumb.”
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I wisely corrected it to as follows:
To validate you widely-accepted statistically fact based argument you’re using a very recent example? That was timely, it’s sad you have to do it with all these proponents of “using their gut” and “junkyard dogs.”
I think we’ll see JT at DH with Culberson getting a start at 2B and moving Forsythe to 3B. JT took a ground ball off his knee and was limping around a bit and I think Doc will try to get him off his feet and use him in a DH role tonight. I agree with your assessment that Doc went with instinct last night and did not “overthink” the situation. Left Forsythe and Barnes in to hit against a RH pitcher and both game through big with a game tying single by Logan and a nice insurance run with a sac fly by AB.
Puig and JT need to come up big tonight. With Keuchel pitching it feels like both will have an opportunity to hit in a big RBI situation. Lets get this game tonight and get back to LA up 3-2.