AC is Back: Dodger Prospects and Potential RP in Trade

It has been a long time since I have felt a desire to write.  I am hoping that I can at least finish this one.  I have been trying to finish a certain blog post that I started last March, but have not been able to do so.  I was able to write a somewhat complete email to Harold (DC) last week, and responded to two very close friends last week for my birthday.  Those are the first emails longer than a couple of sentences that I have finished since February.

Anyway, here goes.  I have been watching more MiLB games than LAD games.  I have been focusing on Tulsa (AA).  I have been watching Michael Busch, Kody Hoese, Jacob Amaya, and my favorite MiLB player since he was drafted out of Butler, Ryan Pepiot.  I watched Saturday’s outing where Pepiot pitched 5.0 IP, allowed 1 hit, 1 walk, and had 8 K’s.  For the season, Ryan has pitched 22.0 IP, with a 1.64 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP.  Batting average against is .137, with 33 Ks and 10 BBs.  In his 22.0 IP he has surrendered 4 runs including 3 HRs.   Too many walks, and missing over the plate while he is dealing. Once he garners that command, Pepiot is going to move quickly. 

Andre Jackson is another starting pitcher who is pitching well in Tulsa.  However, Jackson is 1.3 years older than Pepiot.  John Rooney is at least competing, while Michael Grove should no longer be considered a rotation type pitcher.  It has been more than four years (May 2017) since his TJ surgery.  It is time to stick him in the pen and see if he can compete there.  Gerardo Carrillo is still 22 and had a decent start to AA, but his last two starts have been a disaster.  In 5.1 IP Carrillo has surrendered  9 earned runs.  At 22 in AA, he is still a pitcher to watch. 

Tulsa does have some relievers that warrant some following.  The youngest pitcher on the staff, Guillermo Zuniga.  Zuniga has appeared in 12 games, he has 19.0 IP with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP.  He has 29 Ks and 9 BBs.  He has one save and one blown save.  Certainly not eye-popping numbers, but put it into context that he is only 22 at AA, and LAD believes they have a potential late inning reliever. 

Another 22 year old who is seemingly on everyone’s list is 6’6” 265 pound RHRP Nick Robertson.  He is not the big strikeout pitcher, but in 17.1 IP, he does have 17Ks.  But where he currently excels at is he limits his BBs…4 in those 17.1 IP.  He has a 1.56 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP.  His OPS against is .456.  Nick should be at AAA, but LAD loves to keep their AAAA pitchers there, so I would anticipate that Nick will continue to succeed at AA.  But he is a strong candidate to break camp with the ML club next Spring.

One reliever that continues to go unnoticed, is 25 year old RHRP Aaron Ochsenbein.  All he has done is pitch well everywhere he has pitched in the organization.  At AA this year, he has 20.1 IP with a 2.21 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP.  Not a big strikeout pitcher (18), but his OPS against is .500.  He is 25 and needs to be pushed to see how far he can go and continue to succeed.

There are certainly others who could surprise, but Pepiot and Robertson look like the legit contenders with Jackson, Carrillo, and Zuniga worthy of consideration.  And I am still pulling hard for Aaron Ochsenbein.

Offensively, Michael Busch still leads the team in OPS (.878).  However, he does K at a near 28% rate.  Which is stellar compared to Jeren Kendall who is whiffing at a near 40% rate.  Defensively, Busch handles most of what he can get to (2 errors in 82 chances).  But his range at 2B is still questionable.  He needs more work there.  The other top prospect at Tulsa is 3B Kody Hoese.  Hoese has started at AA slowly with a dismal .468 OPS in 130 PA.  He has 3 XBH and a .246 OBP to account for the low OPS.  One of the concerns that talent evaluators had with Kody was his slow bat.  He strikes out at a near 24% clip, but has not barreled up at AA just yet.  The positive is that both are only 23 and are more than a year younger than the average AA player.  They missed out on an entire season of competitive play, but so did the other AA players.  Neither Busch nor Hoese were strikeout hitters in college, albeit Busch played in a top conference (ACC), while Hoese played in second tier Missouri Valley Conference.  Both Busch and Hoese are rightfully top LAD prospects, but only Busch is rated as a top 100 player (82 MLB Pipeline and 89 Fangraphs).

I have always been an advocate for Jacob Amaya.  Jacob is another player LAD is trying to change his swing.  Thus far he is hitting exactly as you would expect…more power, less contact.  Jacob was a doubles producer in 2019 with limited HR power (7 in 559 PA).  But his K rate was a little above 17%.  In 2021, Jacob has 5 HRs in 137 PA while his K rate has grown to 29.2%.  But this is the RVS philosophy penetrating throughout the system…launch angle with a hard swing.  If you like more HRs and more Ks, you are a fan.  Me, I preferred the potential GG SS who can hit .260 to .270 with little power.  Like Philjones I am a Nick Madrigal fan.  Why “fix” him?  Same with Amaya.  Leave him alone.  He is never going to be a high OPS SS.  Let him fail or succeed on his strengths.  In addition, Jacob is only 22 and is more than 2 years younger than the average AA player.  It may not be with the LAD, but he will play MLB.  Amaya will be a Rule 5 draft player this December.  I hope the Dodgers will protect him, but if not, it would be hard for another team to protect him on the ML roster for the entire year.

IMO, Busch, Hoese, and Amaya are the only AA players who have a chance to be everyday MLB players.  Will they?  Probably not all three.

Donovan Casey – RH version of Luke Raley and Zach Reks with limited power.  His ceiling is as a reserve OF.

Jeren Kendall – Tremendous defensive CF who has big time problems with making contact.  I will continue to say that Kendall should have hired Brett Butler to work with him.  I cannot see him wearing an LAD uniform in a regular season game.  He is a Rule 5 player, and I do not expect the Dodgers to protect him.  Let’s see if anyone picks him up.  They didn’t last winter.

Devin Mann and Carlos Rincon – I do not see it.

At AAA, IMO, only Keibert Ruiz is a potential everyday MLB player.  He can play at MLB, but his defense is still a work in progress.  Everyone talks about Austin Barnes’ weak arm, but he has thrown out 6 out of 28 would be base stealers (a below average 21%).  He has one passed ball and two errors in 195.2 innings and 233 chances at the ML level.  Compare that to Ruiz at AAA. 2 caught stealing out of 14 chances (14%), with 4 errors and 2 passed balls in 130 innings and 154 total chances.  Ruiz is not getting moved until LAD sees what Diego Cartaya can do at the upper leagues.  He is a man amongst boys in the California League.

JoJo Gray is still a mid-rotational prospect, even though he has not pitched much this year due to an injury.

It is hard to analyze A ball players.  The biggest leap in professional baseball is from A ball to AA.  Players can dominate at A level, but get lost in the weeds at AA.  But it is hard to not get excited about Miguel Vargas.  He has hit everywhere he has played, and at 21, he is dominating at high A in a pitcher’s league.  At 21, he is top 5 in BA and top 7 in SLG and OPS.  I know DC follows the Loons very closely, and I asked him what was being said about his defense at 3B.  Per DC,

”According to the play-by-play announcer, Brad Tunney, his defense has really picked up. 3 errors in 78 chances.  He seemed to have a strong arm and moves well. He is an alert ball player. He has filled out – 6’3”/205-lb. Tunney was suggesting that a move to 3B in Tulsa is in order.  I expect that may depend on Kody Hoese.”

I would agree that Tulsa should not be far away for Vargas.  Keep pushing him. 

Andy Pages at 20 is having a good start to High A.  He is tied for the league lead in HRs (9), and 8^th in the league in RBIs (25).  He needs more plate discipline, but he could possibly sneak in to AA at the end of the year.

An unexpected dark horse is LHH LF Ryan Ward.  At 23, he is older for the league, but he is playing well enough that he should see AA next year.

DC has already written about Leonel Valera.  At 20, he is very young for the league, and is competing well. 

Carson Taylor has moved behind the Ruiz and Cartaya tandem in the catcher prospects.  At 22, he is more than holding his own in his first year in professional baseball and he is doing it a High A.  I look forward to seeing how he plays at AA next year.  But do not count him out, at least as a backup receiver.

Pitching – I love the makeup of Bobby Miller.  Will he be a mid-rotational pitcher or a high leverage late inning reliever.  Either way he is a future MLB Pitcher.  He is being closely monitored by LAD.  He has 18.0 IP with a 1.00 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP.  20 K vs 5 BB. Zero HR.  He is 22, and maybe should get a promotion to AA to see what he can do there.

I have been following Jesus Vargas since his DSL days.  At 21, he has the most IP of any Loon at 33.0.  He has a 2.73 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP.  His WHIP is low because he limits his walks.  He has 2 walks in his 33.0 IP against 23 Ks.  He has allowed 5 HRs, so he needs to sharpen his command and hit corners more than the middle of the plate.  

The jury is still out on Robinson Ortiz and Cole Percival.  They have both done a very good job in keeping batters/runners from scoring, but it takes a lot of work.  Both Ortiz and Percival have issued more walks than strikeouts.  Ortiz – 13 BB vs 12 K; Percival – 16 BB vs 15 K.

Melvin Jimenez has seemingly been around forever, but he is only 21.  He is pitching better this year, and I still hold out hope for him.  He has always been one of my favorites.

Cameron Gibbons – There has been a lot of talk about him.  He is a big strikeout pitcher.  NO DOUBT.  32 Ks in 15.2 IP.  But at 25, I would hope that he would dominate in A Ball.  At 24, Marshall Kasowski was putting similar K numbers at AA…46 in 29.1 IP.  At 23, Marshall had 49 Ks in 28.0 IP at Great Lakes and 44 Ks in 23.2 IP at Rancho.  At 26, Marshall is on the 60 Day IL.  He looks promising, but do did Marshall Kasowski.  Let’s see what he can do at AA and AAA before we move him to the LAD bullpen. 

Rancho has a number of potential players, but at low A, it is hard to say who will excel and who will not.  At 19 and playing in full season A ball, I would expect Jake Vogel and Alex De Jesus to struggle. Jake is currently on the IL, but was starting to come around before he got hurt.  Brandon Lewis, who is stuck behind Kody Hoese and Miguel Vargas, is somewhat of a favorite of mine.  He graduated from the same high school as my kids…Bishop Alemany.  So I am pulling for him.  Like Hoese and Vargas, he is a candidate to be moved to 1B.

One more thing.  I have not been satisfied with the back end of the Dodgers bullpen since KJ and Morrow in 2017, and Eric Gagne/Guillermo Mota (2004) before that.  Mark and I have had numerous battles on the bullpen.  This year is no different. Give me one pitcher who has been consistently good, much less two?  I have also agreed with Mark that relief pitchers are a fickle bunch.  Remember last year’s super reliever…Devin Williams?  He was unhittable, and had a unworldly K rate of 53 K in 27.0 IP.  This year he still gets a lot of Ks, but his WHIP has increased from 0.630 in 2020 to a rather pedestrian 1.438 in 2021.  Anyone who has any thoughts that Josh Hader is available is dreaming.  Same is undoubtedly true with Craig Kimbrel.  The Brewers and the Cubbies, and Cardinals are all in the NL Central race and figure to be there at the Break.  I think both will be buyers and not sellers. 

So who might be available.  We need to look at who the potential sellers are.  IMO, the sellers figure to be AZ, Colorado, Miami, Washington, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Detroit, Minnesota, and Texas.  There could be 6-8 additional teams that could be there in mid-July.  Of those seller teams, there are a few relievers that will undoubtedly be moved.  My first choice is Pittsburgh RHRP Richard Rodriguez.  He will get moved.  He has two more years of control, so he will cost.  Another Pittsburgh reliever the Dodgers may be interested in is LHRP 28 year old Sam Howard.  9 holds, no blown saves.  15 inherited runners, none scored.  32 Ks vs 16 BBs in 24.0 IP.  2.25 ERA and 1.083 WHIP.  He is not a late inning high leverage guy, but he gets batters out, and leaves runners stranded.  He is controlled to 2026.

Another that I anticipate being moved and who the Dodgers should check in on is Minnesota LHRP Taylor Rogers.  He has one more year of control.  His 37K vs 5BB in 26.2 IP is a quality metric.  He has not let an inherited runner score since mid-April.  Does he have warts?  Of course he does.  But he has been a successful late inning reliever in the same mold as was Ryan Pressley with the Twins.  And wouldn’t it be fun to see him stick it to his brother Tyler with the Gnats?

Ian Kennedy with Texas is having a good year.  One year $2.15MM is an affordable reliever.  He has 12 saves against 1 blown save for Texas in 2021.  He had 30 saves for a bad KC team in 2019.  Plus he is a Trojan, so that makes him a must.

Baltimore has a 25 year old LHRP with three years control…Paul Fry.  34 Ks vs 11 BB in 23.1 IP.  In 11 inherited runners, three have scored, and only one since April 8.  Of course if Baltimore makes John Means available, AF has to consider him.  There are two chances and slim just walked out the door.

One other dark horse is LHRP Gregory Soto from Detroit.  He seems to be coming into his own in 2021, and is controllable until 2026.  I do not see him as a late inning pitcher in 2021, but he could be in future years. 

There are no 2017 versions of KJ, or Mariano Rivera, or Eric Gagne, or Zack Brittons available.  Richard Rodriguez is the best late inning reliever available who is on a selling team.

I got through it.  I am going to have a Corona to celebrate. It could be another three months for me.

MT’s Dodger Minor League Report

• OKC BOX – OKC lost 9-6 as Sheldon Noisy hit a 3-run HR and Christian Santana doubled for the only extra-base hits. Drew Avans was 2-4 and that was it offensively. Uceta gave up 2 ER in 3 IP and newly signed Vidal Nuno gave up 6 runs in 2 IP. Nunez pitched 1 inning and allowed no runs and Garret Cleavinger pitched an inning and allowed 3 hits, but no one scored. That is an accomplishment!
• TULSA BOX – Tulsa lost 7-1 as Noda hit a Solo shot for the only run and extra-base hit. Carrillo gave up 6 runs in 1.2 IP and that was it.
• GL BOX The Loons beat Dayton again 9-6. James Outman hit a 3 run blast and Carson Taylor hit a 2-run HR. Justin Yurchak was 3-4 and is starting to get untangled offensively.
• RC BOX – The Quakes beat the Storm 8-5 as Brandon Lewis went 4-5 with his 8th HR (.286 BA/.920 OPS). Alex De Jesus was 2-4.