A New Third Baseman & Much More…
For the greater part of nine seasons, Justin Turner has been the one player you could count on, day-in-and-day-out! The Dodger’s Manager just penciled his name in at 3B just about every day. Justin was the heart and soul of the Dodgers during this run… and that run is over…
For the greater part of nine seasons, Justin Turner has been the one player you could count on, day-in-and-day-out! The Dodger’s Manager just penciled his name in at 3B just about every day. Justin was the heart and soul of the Dodgers during this run… and that run is over. Father Time caught up with JT. He is no longer a Top Third-Baseman, and his bat has slowed up. I am not saying he can’t be a productive player, but I would rather have a younger JD Martinez at DH than JT… especially when the Dodgers only had to commit $10 Million to JD while the Red Sox had to commit $22 Million to JT. JT did the right thing for his family, and Andrew Friedman did the right thing for his Dodger Family in letting JT walk..
Now, there will be a new look at 3B, and it will most likely be Miguel Vargas or Max Muncy. Miggy will be given every opportunity to win the position, but if he proves that he is not ready or capable of playing third base, then Max Muncy will end up there. However, if Vargas does what I believe he will do – become a ROY Candidate as a Third-Baseman, Max Muncy has to play 2B, which he can do at an AVERAGE LEVEL, although his bat will play up there. Forget what he did last year – he will be back to the normal Max Muncy next season. That moves Gavin Lux somewhere else. Most Dodger Fans think it is SS. I am not even close to being convinced of that. In fact, I am convinced that will not happen. The Athletic had this to say yesterday:
“Lux is a former top prospect whose natural position is shortstop, but he possesses below-average arm strength and footwork, and had issues throwing in the minors.”
Fabian Ardaya
Those are facts! But we are supposed to believe that his arm is getting stronger, and his footwork is improving at a position he has played very little in the past two years at SS… parts of 68 games, to be exact, and he has logged just 367 games at SS in the Minors and Majors – COMBINED? His fielding percentage as a SS is .942. If you believe that Andrew Friedman is going into the season with Gavin Lux as his starting SS, I have a Bridge you might be interested in. Think about it… and tell me that it makes sense. It makes no sense to me. There are two choices on the Dodgers’ Roster to play SS (IMHO): Jacob Amaya (can he hit enough?) and Chris Taylor. CT3 has never played there regularly, but he has a much stronger arm, and he is a pro. He can play there for a year… or two. I also look for Chris Taylor to have a huge bounce-back year. Eliminating the shift and the larger bases will help him a lot.
That moves Lux to the outfield – LF or CF, depending upon how James Outman performs. It appears that Willy Adames will not be traded (at least not right now). I can see AF being all over Adames If and when, he hits the market. Adames is not Trea Turner – he is a 7,8, or 9 hitter, but he would be a solid, useful player for the Dodgers. However, it does not appear to be happening… at least NOW.
The Dodgers are barely under the Luxury Tax Threshold, but if certain players hit their bonus levels (such as Thor) then they are over – I do not think that will happen unless everyone overperforms and the Dodgers believe a big trade could yield a World Series win, and we already know that making a big trade and winning a World Series are not Mutually Exclusive!
I suppose Andrew Friedman could work out a deal with one of his fellow GMs to trade Trevor Bauer to them, and they take over a portion of Bauer’s salary for a Top Prospect…, and then that team cuts Bauer. The higher the prospect, the more the trading team would eat! But that is going to hurt. You could probably get a team to eat all of Bauer’s salary for … Diego Cartaya! The Dodgers may be forced to do something similar to that in order to re-set that Luxury Tax… and regardless of what you might think, they really do need to do that.
Justin Turner Farewell
The above is the latest prospect rankings from Baseball America. The Dodgers are indeed “strapped” with a lot of top prospects. The next ten will also “wow” you. The Dodgers are trying to give these guys a “runway” to the majors, but I cannot help but think that Diego Cartaya will get traded this year. The Dodgers are deep in catchers, and Dalton Rushing is going to be a monster hitter. They also have Hunter Feduccia and Yeiner Fernandez, so they have the luxury of trading Cartaya in a deal for Reynolds and/or Adames. I could see a blockbuster… maybe just not right now, but it could happen in the late Spring or Summer.
My preference would be to keep Lux as I think he will be a very good player with a high OB% (think: Leadoff Hitter). I’ll let Andrew Friedman figure out the particulars – I just advise him! 😉
P.S. Save the Vitriol – I like Gavin Lux. I want him on my team. I just do not think he can play SS. It’s as simple as that!
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Discussion (105)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Oh, we’re doing this again…
Career Fielding Percentage at SS
Trea .972
Seager .970
Lux .968
Taylor .960
‘Nuf Said
Looking at the above videos you will see that Outman is a “pull-type hitter” who still has a strange swing – he uses his arms differently than most hitters – Not saying it is bad… I just think it is unusual.
Busch on the other hand, has a sweet swing and has lots of Opposite Field Power.
While I am at it, here’s some more video on Outman, Amaya and Busch:
These guys think he can play SS, but realistically Casey never has anything negative to say about Dodger Players:
The prospect lists are a lot fun…. even if they are often so wrong.
As I recall it, neither Atlanta’s Michael Harris or Cleveland’s Steven Kwan–two breakout stars of 2022–were listed in BA’s Top 100. There are always “can’t miss” prospects who miss. Seattle’s Jered Kelenic was supposed to be a ROY candidate, but can’t figure out major league pitching. The Angels’ Jo Adell has also flopped.
Yeah, they are young and maybe they’ll get untracked. But there are many reasons to doubt whether Miguel Vargas is really a future star. There is no question, however, that he’ll get his chance.
My favorite bit of news from the prospect lists was covered in TrueBlueLA:
Josue De Paula signed with the Dodgers out of the Dominican Republic last January, and doesn’t turn 18 until June. But the outfielder impressed enough in his first professional season in the Dominican Summer League that Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs ranked De Paula the seventh-best prospect in a very deep system.
Already listed at 6’3, 200 pounds, De Paula hit .350/.448/.522 with 20 extra-base hits in 53 games and more walks (32) than strikeouts (31), all at age 17, which earned him a spot in instructional league after the season.
“The comps that scouts (not just Dodgers personnel, scouts from outside the org) are throwing around here are borderline irresponsible, star DH/LF types who are currently among the most dangerous hitters in baseball,” Longenhagen wrote. “De Paula’s size is likely to push him way, way down the defensive spectrum, maybe even off of it entirely, but the ceiling on his bat is so huge that it may not matter.”
OK, maybe it’s a couple years too early to get excited, but… holy moly. It will be fun to see his follow his progress. He’s just 17 so he’ll probably and a couple inches and maybe 25 pounds of muscle to his frame. Could be a beast.
The calculus of rating prospects puzzles me. I guess the idea is to rank them in terms of talent/performance as to who is most likely to be a star. An older prospect, like 26-year-old Outman, may produce better stats at a higher level than a younger guy like Pages–but Pages will get the higher ranking because of his perceived potential. As I recall it, Matt Beatty was something like 27th on Dodgers list when he got called to majors–and I’m sure a lot of guys ranked above him never got the call.
I remain puzzled why Busch is consistently ranked ahead of Outman, who has posted better stats in recent years. Plus, Outman is a quality outfielder, while Busch is perceived (perhaps unfairly) as mostly a DH type. Age really can’t be much of factor: Outman is 26, Busch 25.
Older prospects, perhaps, just aren’t as exciting as younger ones. Trout was only 19 when he was called up–and Aaron Judge was 24.
There’s something to be said for late bloomers, because progress isn’t linear, you know. …
Trading Cartaya just to get rid of Bauers contract would be a HUGE HUGE mistake IMHO.
If the goal is to stay under the LTT, which I think would be basically a good move, you have to find another way to make that work.
I would even consider trading Kershaw at the deadline if he agrees too and we think we are out of the pennant race.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
How about a change in talk then. Who thinks Aaron Rodgers to Las Vegas Raiders next year. And Tom Brady to the San Francisco 49ers. Then Jimmy Groppollo to the New York Jets and last QB Derrick Carr to the Tennessee Titans, The changing of QBs in the NFL for next year. Anyone else have predictions for next year.
Here’s your lineup you all wanted if Outman doesn’t hit and Vargas can’t hit because you all say. Go with who we have.
Lux 2b
Betts RF
Freeman 1b
JD Martinez DH
Smith C
Muncy 3b
Taylor LF
Thompson Cf
Amaya SS
For all you guys who said to not make moves now there’s your Dodger lineup for 2023. Because you didn’t get guys now and you all said naw don’t get anybody.
Was typing fast. Sorry, just going with what you guys say. To go with the young guys. And not get any veteran guys to help them win now. That’s all I said. I said go get Adames Reynolds a Outfielder and you all said no to it. Now you understand me. Like it says. In the passed the dodgers went out and got the veterans to help the young guys.
Well if the Digers are goiyogo with the young guys then veterans like they did in the past. I say why not go get Bryan Reynolds put him as the everyday left fielder and Outman in center field since every one says he is ready and Betts in Rightfield those guys play every day and in late I ning you put the defensive guys in Taylor ans Thompson after you get the lead. Put lux at short stop even thou his throws make Freeman nervous yet you are all comfortable with that. There’s got to be a young stud shortstop some where that would want to be a Dodger that has a good glove and you all think Vargas is going to hit 40 homers and third base so don’t get a veteran third base man either just go with the young guys. Hmm okay when you guys start complaining about Vargas nit hitting and Outman not hitting why then is AF going to rwalize and go dam we need a CF and 3B guy. And you guys will be like oh. Maybe we should have gotten some veterans just in case this didn’t work out. Where is that left fielder for the Braves that killed the Dodgers in the playoffs where is he go get him to play Leftfield if you don’t want to trade for Reynolds. Be a weak lineup with Taylor Thompson Betts Freeman Lux Amaya Muncy Smith JD Martinez if Vargas and Outman can’t hit in the big leagues those ten would be your starters and you all are okay with that.