A New Third Baseman & Much More…

Well if the Digers are goiyogo with the young guys then veterans like they did in the past. I say why not go get Bryan Reynolds put him as the everyday left fielder and Outman in center field since every one says he is ready and Betts in Rightfield those guys play every day and in late I ning you put the defensive guys in Taylor ans Thompson after you get the lead. Put lux at short stop even thou his throws make Freeman nervous yet you are all comfortable with that. There’s got to be a young stud shortstop some where that would want to be a Dodger that has a good glove and you all think Vargas is going to hit 40 homers and third base so don’t get a veteran third base man either just go with the young guys. Hmm okay when you guys start complaining about Vargas nit hitting and Outman not hitting why then is AF going to rwalize and go dam we need a CF and 3B guy. And you guys will be like oh. Maybe we should have gotten some veterans just in case this didn’t work out. Where is that left fielder for the Braves that killed the Dodgers in the playoffs where is he go get him to play Leftfield if you don’t want to trade for Reynolds. Be a weak lineup with Taylor Thompson Betts Freeman Lux Amaya Muncy Smith JD Martinez if Vargas and Outman can’t hit in the big leagues those ten would be your starters and you all are okay with that.

Was typing fast. Sorry, just going with what you guys say. To go with the young guys. And not get any veteran guys to help them win now. That’s all I said. I said go get Adames Reynolds a Outfielder and you all said no to it. Now you understand me. Like it says. In the passed the dodgers went out and got the veterans to help the young guys.

Here’s your lineup you all wanted if Outman doesn’t hit and Vargas can’t hit because you all say. Go with who we have.

Lux 2b

Betts RF

Freeman 1b

JD Martinez DH

Smith C

Muncy 3b

Taylor LF

Thompson Cf

Amaya SS

For all you guys who said to not make moves now there’s your Dodger lineup for 2023. Because you didn’t get guys now and you all said naw don’t get anybody.

How about a change in talk then. Who thinks Aaron Rodgers to Las Vegas Raiders next year. And Tom Brady to the San Francisco 49ers. Then Jimmy Groppollo to the New York Jets and last QB Derrick Carr to the Tennessee Titans, The changing of QBs in the NFL for next year. Anyone else have predictions for next year.

Trading Cartaya just to get rid of Bauers contract would be a HUGE HUGE mistake IMHO.

If the goal is to stay under the LTT, which I think would be basically a good move, you have to find another way to make that work.

I would even consider trading Kershaw at the deadline if he agrees too and we think we are out of the pennant race.

Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The prospect lists are a lot fun…. even if they are often so wrong.

As I recall it, neither Atlanta’s Michael Harris or Cleveland’s Steven Kwan–two breakout stars of 2022–were listed in BA’s Top 100. There are always “can’t miss” prospects who miss. Seattle’s Jered Kelenic was supposed to be a ROY candidate, but can’t figure out major league pitching. The Angels’ Jo Adell has also flopped.

Yeah, they are young and maybe they’ll get untracked. But there are many reasons to doubt whether Miguel Vargas is really a future star. There is no question, however, that he’ll get his chance.

My favorite bit of news from the prospect lists was covered in TrueBlueLA:

Josue De Paula signed with the Dodgers out of the Dominican Republic last January, and doesn’t turn 18 until June. But the outfielder impressed enough in his first professional season in the Dominican Summer League that Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs ranked De Paula the seventh-best prospect in a very deep system.

Already listed at 6’3, 200 pounds, De Paula hit .350/.448/.522 with 20 extra-base hits in 53 games and more walks (32) than strikeouts (31), all at age 17, which earned him a spot in instructional league after the season.

“The comps that scouts (not just Dodgers personnel, scouts from outside the org) are throwing around here are borderline irresponsible, star DH/LF types who are currently among the most dangerous hitters in baseball,” Longenhagen wrote. “De Paula’s size is likely to push him way, way down the defensive spectrum, maybe even off of it entirely, but the ceiling on his bat is so huge that it may not matter.”

OK, maybe it’s a couple years too early to get excited, but… holy moly. It will be fun to see his follow his progress. He’s just 17 so he’ll probably and a couple inches and maybe 25 pounds of muscle to his frame. Could be a beast.

The calculus of rating prospects puzzles me. I guess the idea is to rank them in terms of talent/performance as to who is most likely to be a star. An older prospect, like 26-year-old Outman, may produce better stats at a higher level than a younger guy like Pages–but Pages will get the higher ranking because of his perceived potential. As I recall it, Matt Beatty was something like 27th on Dodgers list when he got called to majors–and I’m sure a lot of guys ranked above him never got the call.

I remain puzzled why Busch is consistently ranked ahead of Outman, who has posted better stats in recent years. Plus, Outman is a quality outfielder, while Busch is perceived (perhaps unfairly) as mostly a DH type. Age really can’t be much of factor: Outman is 26, Busch 25.

Older prospects, perhaps, just aren’t as exciting as younger ones. Trout was only 19 when he was called up–and Aaron Judge was 24.

There’s something to be said for late bloomers, because progress isn’t linear, you know. …

While I am at it, here’s some more video on Outman, Amaya and Busch:

These guys think he can play SS, but realistically Casey never has anything negative to say about Dodger Players:

Looking at the above videos you will see that Outman is a “pull-type hitter” who still has a strange swing – he uses his arms differently than most hitters – Not saying it is bad… I just think it is unusual.

Busch on the other hand, has a sweet swing and has lots of Opposite Field Power.

Oh, we’re doing this again…

Career Fielding Percentage at SS

Trea .972

Seager .970

Lux .968

Taylor .960

‘Nuf Said

Here are his fielding %’s in the minors at ss:

2016 Ogden 1.000 8 games

2016 AZ instructional .899 43 games

2017 Great Lakes .933 65 games

2018 RC .921 66 games

2019 Tulsa .950 55 games

2019 OK City .977 36 games

Certainly looks like Mark has a point but that doesn’t mean he won’t get the chance in spring. However, there wouldn’t be so much discussion about whether he can play the position if there wasn’t an issue.

I don’t think the Dodgers will trade Cartaya based on Rushing’s 100 or so professional ABs. But, it does make sense to trade from a position of strength. Cartaya has glowing scouting reports and results to back them up. We got Scherzer and Trea for K-Bear, who wasn’t as highly touted as Cartaya. If they trade Cartaya, it will be for an elite player only.

Okay, I’ll bite. Where is the bridge and how much do you want for it?

Mark’s is certain with his evaluation of Lux’s inability to be successful at SS and the additional certainty that Amaya can’t hit major league pitching. So, in Mark’s eyes we are looking at the strong possibility of Chris Taylor being a successful everyday SS. CT3, who hit .221 with a 36% K rate and a .677 OPS. CT3, who’s poor stats were the result pf playing while being injured or recovering from injuries. Because of these injuries CT3 was unable to make contact with a pitched ball at an alarming rate. It wasn’t weak contact or multiple foul balls during an at bat. It was that he couldn’t even make contact with a pitch. Mark believes with the removal of the shift and the larger bases CT3 will have a huge bounce back season. That could be true. I really want that to happen for CT3, the team, and the fans. But, in reality, CT3 will have to make contact with a pitched ball in order for the new rules to become relevant to turning his season around.

Wow. Our new poster, Bradley, might be another example of our public school education system. LOL. Bradley, you have some good thoughts but slow down a bit. Punctuation can be your friend. Typing too fast doesn’t make much sense if you have to make another post explaining why your first post is a garbled mess. Keep contributing. Try to throw in a period or two while doing so.

Per Bradley’s opinion about having veterans available to fill in holes because he believes the rookies will be failures. How do you know that? What’s the point of having a farm system if you’re afraid or unwilling to give the prospects an opportunity to succeed at the major league level? With the Dodger prospects and them being rated highly it’s either play them or trade them. But, not to give them a chance at the MLB level is not right. It’s not the end of the world if they turn out to be overrated. Trades or FA can always fix a problem. The Dodgers have done it before and can do it again. Bradley had posted a “veteran” lineup from the current roster. Not bad at all. I’ll take Betts, Freeman, Smith, JDM, Muncy, and Lux all day long. Excluding Lux, all have proven track records of being very productive hitters. They provide an nice opportunity to work in Vargas, Outman, with possibly including Amaya and Busch. If Thompson can stay healthy he should be able to repeat his success from last year and be able to contribute in LF (or CF) with Taylor available to give TT some time off to maintain that health. Throw in Heyward into the OF mix and should be in good shape. Very anxious for spring training and see which new guys emerge to the 26 man roster.

Carry on.

I thought just the other day we were supposed to be trading CT3 to ensure the Dodgers stay under the cap. Now he’s the starting SS?

Jacob Amaya will a good utility infielder someday.

I took another look at Adames. He’s a “buy high” candidate right now, and it’ll take Cartaya to even start a conversation.

Even if Mark gets his wish and his favorite whipping boy Lux is moved to 2nd base, where does Muncy play? So, Vargas goes to left field, now?

Welcome back to Minnesota, Carlos Correa.

Six years/$200 MM with vesting options that could take it to $270MM

No opt outs.

The deal is pending a physical. 🙂

Old friend Matt Beaty signs a minor league deal with the Royals. Nashville is trying to get an MLB franchise. Maybe they can move the Marlins out of Miami.

Thanks for the videos above on Amaya, Busch and Lux. I could watch video on middle infielders all day. I’ve seen Amaya and Busch and Lux at short on a limited basis in the Springs. It doesn’t take me that long, however, to evaluate infield mechanics. A couple of things jumped out immediately in the videos. I like Busch’s balance at the plate. And Amaya’s feet at short. I love Amaya’s defensive actions. I think he will hit enough to compete for that job and I think he’s heads above Lux and CT3 there. Lux has poor feet at 2nd around the bag and looks better at SS. But I don’t love his arm strength from short during the limited times I’ve seen him there and in the video. Guys can get by with weaker arms if they get the ball in the air. Like David “just-in-time” Ekstein. But a bigger arm at SS is preferred. Amaya’s arm looks much stronger to me. I think he is underrated by some on this site and comments like “he will make a nice utility guy someday,” short change his skill. He will be, in my opinion, much more than that. I think he’s a big league shortstop – somewhere. But you can’t hit while you sit, so this will be a big spring for Amaya, when he gets his opportunities. Last spring, Lux was trying to earn a job at 2nd, if I’m not mistaken. We’ll see.

But thanks for the video, Mark.

Bear, Matt Beaty didn’t sign with the Marlins, he signed with the Royals.

I don’t see much wrong with this lineup either:

1. Lux CF

2. Betts RF

3. Freeman 1B

4. Martinez DH

5. Muncy 2B

6. Smith C

7. Vargas 3B

8. Taylor/Busch LF

9. Amaya SS

I wish I knew all the answers. But I cannot remember any spring training where there was not a question mark or ten. I think this season differs in the fact that they lost so many players who were instrumental in their championship runs over the last several years. Losing the Turner boys left a gap. Bellinger’s glove will be missed. Anderson was a solid pickup last year, but how many actually thought he would be as good as he was? None that I can remember. I think many are not convinced that Muncy and Taylor can rebound. Many doubt that the kids are going to be able to put up good numbers also. I will say I expect Vargas to be better than he was in his short stint with the team, and I do not expect Outman to be as good as he was. Somewhere in-between though would be acceptable. I have not seen enough of Amaya to make any solid judgments of how he would work out as the everyday SS. What I do know is that all I have heard from the front office is that they are ok with Lux being that guy. And since he will get every opportunity to prove he is, I do not think Mark’s idea of him playing center is going to materialize. Just not enough time in spring for him to get solid playing time at both positions. Like the Joc Pederson 1st base fiasco, I believe Lux’s days as an outfielder are behind him. Besides, they have 3 guys with MLB experience as CF already in place. It makes no sense to take time away from those guys and give it to Lux who is a career infielder. If he were to play center, the only smart move would be playing him there every inning of every spring game. Nope, not happening.

News from Internet:

Ben Clemens Chat:

Inaccessible Rail: I can’t decide if next year will be a career renaissance for Noah Syndergaard because of Dodger coaching or it will be a disaster for him since he’s terrible at stopping the run. Which do you think it will be?

Ben Clemens: I’m thinking renaissance thanks to the Dodgers, but yeah, he will also get run on a lot. He’s maybe the worst pitcher I’ve seen in person when it comes to holding the run. You can just see it. =With most pitcher, their abillity to hold runners on is indistinguishable ot me, but with Syndergaard it’s evident right away.

Phil: From a historical perspective, how would you rank Verlander, Kershaw and Scherzer?

Ben Clemens: Man, this is a tough one. For me, it’s Kershaw > Verlander = Scherzer. They’re the best three of this generation, of course, and Effectively Wild has covered the striking similarity between Scherzer’s and Verlander’s careers.

Kershaw is a weird case b/c of his playoff record, but his peak was just ludicrous, and then he’s been an above average pitcher for another six years after everyone wrote him off.

Phil: re: Kershaw and recency bias, i respectfully disagree. No doubt Kershaw had the best 5-year peak of the three (possibly the best 5-year peak of all time). But In terms of career accomplishments, cases can be made for any of them. Kershaw has 3 Cy Young awards. So does Verlander. So does Scherzer. Kershaw has 7 Top 5 Cy Young finishes. Verlander has 9. Scherzer has 9. Kershaw has pitched ~2,600 innings. Verlander has pitched ~3,100. Scherzer ~2,700. Kershaw has a significantly better ERA+.

Ben Clemens: I think it’s reasonable to take the average of career and peak – royalties to Jay Jaffe pending – and that peak puts Kershaw over the top for me. They’re all great, though

Dan: Who is a prospect that you’re most interested to see how they perform this year?

Ben Clemens: Miguel Vargas. I’ve been high on him for years, every time I build a predictive model he comes up as exceptional. I think that the Dodgers giving him a fair shake is awesome, and I’d love to see him rake

Wild side-by-side look at Max Fried vs. Gavin Stone:

Baseball America’s look at the Dodgers system ($$$$$)

Cartaya, Miller, Vargas. Nastrini at 9.

Best Hitter for Average: Miguel Vargas

Best Power Hitter: Andy Pages

Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Michael Busch

jay Jaffe chat:

Matt: Is the Pirates reported offer to Bryan Reynolds of 6 years, $75 million insultingly low?

Jay Jaffe: Here’s one for you: as I was reminded when writing today’s HOF series profile, when the Guggenheim group took over the Dodgers, their first big move was to extend Andre Ethier via a five-year, $85 million deal IN 2012. Granted, Reynolds has more time to go before free agency but what the Pirates are offering wouldn’t have been agreed to by even an All-Star level outfielder a decade ago.

Leon: How do JD Martinez and Justin Turner compare?

Jay Jaffe: I said words to this effect at the time of the two deals: I wouldn’t trade Turner — older but still a better hitter and defensively capable at 3B — for Martinez, who is pretty much DH only and a shadow of the hitter he once was. And that’s even before we get into the softer factors of, like, trading a key clubhouse figure and community pillar for a guy who used a Hitler quote in a meme about gun control.

Broken Bat: happy new year. Jay, I see many concerns with the Dodger infield defense heading into ST. Muncy at 3rd, Lux as Ss and Taylor at 2b.

Avatar Jay Jaffe: Very much so. That’s not the infield of a division winner. I don’t think it would be even if they do something like trade for Eduardo Escobar to play 3B and have Muncy and Taylor share 2B. Just don’t see Lux as having the glove for regular SS duty and their lineup needs a bigger bat at the hot corner.

FanGraphs looks at the Dodgers’ system:

Kyle Glaser from Baseball America chats about the Dodgers ($$$$$)

some highlights:

Mike R (Lockport, NY): Did Rayne Doncon get into the top 15 and what was the word on Jeral Perez ?

Kyle Glaser: Doncon did not get into the Top 15. He’s pretty far off from that in a system this deep and talented… Perez is more of a wait-and-see prospect. He’s not in the Dodgers Top 30 at this time.

James (North East, MD): The Dodgers might have one of the deepest farm systems, but in my opinion, their Top 10 is in the middle of the pack, and not even close to the O’s, Diamondbacks, Guardians, or Nationals. Am I wrong?

Kyle Glaser: It depends where you want to do your cutoff. The Orioles’ top two is better than the Dodgers’ top two. The D-backs top four is better than the Dodgers top four. But the Dodgers top six are the best top six of any team, Orioles and D-backs included. It just depends what you value most, the top 2-3 guys in a system or the top 5-6.

YouTube’s Dodger Prospects show takes a look at relief options at OKC:

Pepiot, Grover, Robertson and Jackson among other discussed.

“Dodgers just lost Tommy kaneley yeah I really think Andre Jackson can come into high leverage situations…”

“A guy they’re kind of flying under the radar that got sent up to Oklahoma, Justin Hageman”

Jay Jaffe looks at Andre Ethier’s case for the HOF:

It would be an overstatement to call the Dodgers’ acquisition of Andre Ethier a turning point in the franchise’s history…

Bill Plunkett on Ronan Kopp (a personal favorite, oh, $$$$)

Lefthander Ronan Kopp stands out even in a Dodgers’ system loaded with pitching prospects.

“An incredibly successful year, probably one of the biggest developmental stories of the year,” said Dodgers farm director Will Rhymes, who added that Kopp was flashing high-90s velocity and throwing strikes at 2021 instructional league.

Dodger PRospects on YouTube talk about Vargas, Busch and Outman:

Ben Clemens looks at the Dodgers off-season:

Maybe we shouldn’t doubt the Dodgers. They’ve won nine out of the last 10 NL West titles, and in the year they didn’t win the division, they won 106 games. They’re juggernauts by design, a team built to withstand the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. They draft well, develop well, spend a ton of money, and spend that money intelligently. They’re the closest thing baseball has to a dynasty these days, and given the inherent randomness of the playoffs, that’s not likely to change anytime soon.

That’s all true – and despite it all, I’m leaning towards doubting their chances in 2023…

ZIPS projection for the Dodgers in 2023

…Short of some major trade, the final preseason projections will probably have the Dodgers in a very tight race with the Padres; it will likely be the closest NL West race that ZiPS has forecast in some time, outside of 60-game seasons. But while the Dodgers have problems, with a bit of luck, they could easily win 105 games and lap the NL West.

Still think a lot of people would like to have Brandon drury on this team. Plays 2nd, 3rd, and some outfield. Can’t make me believe Friedman couldn’t have done that one. Angels Got a steal! My hope is we don’t wait too long to make a move if Vargas & or outman struggle. I believe our starters are as good and deep as anyone in national league, bullpen is going to be terrific. Thor might just win 15 -16 games if he gets decent run support. And there it is ! Run support. Could be difference between division title and a wid card. Love college basketball! It can’t wait for dodger baseball! Talk has been fantastic last couple days ! Keep it up guys!

Hope you’re right on! Can’t believe we haven’t heard someone calling for Barnes to play 2nd base!

Fielding percentage is one of the weaker metrics in the game. We all have seen balls drop in front of bad outfielders for hits that good outfielders turn into outs. And unless there’s an injury in play, premium gloves aren’t prone to slump. Even when his bat sucked, we could count on Belli to make plays in CF. How many games has Mookie won with his range, glove and arm?

Outman will K a lot but he also brings top-shelf defense. He was rated just behind Amaya in the farm system.

Busch may have the prettier swing, but he also strikes out a lot and his offensive production in 2022, while good, was far surpassed by Outman. In OKC, Outman has an OPS of 1.108 over 251 PAs, while Busch clocked .823 over 504 PAs. So yes, Busch was promoted from Tulsa ahead of Outman.

Both were very good in Tulsa: Busch had a 1.12 OPS over 137 PAs, while Outman was at .946 over 307 PAs.

This is, obviously, just a snapshot comparison, but I would argue that the 2022 stats are the most relevant. (Busch had a better college record and was drafted higher–but so what? What have you done for us lately?) When I look at their strikeout and walk rates, I don’t see a big difference. Vargas does a better job of limiting Ks.

The comparison shows something else that may or may not be significant: Outman IMPROVED at the higher level, while Busch faded a bit. (While top draft picks like Kendall and Hoese have faltered, Outman has improved at just about every level.) I’m not knock Busch–his numbers are good–but I can’t see how one can argue that Busch was better in the batter’s box–and nobody is saying Busch would be better in the field.

And yet every prospect ranking I’ve seen rates Busch above Outman. Our chief scout puts DeLuca, Pages and that other kid–Ramos?–ahead of Outman.

The Dangerfield effect is really pretty funny. Maybe it’s why Gallo got the runway that Outman deserved. And Vargas too, for that matter.

But I also think Outman and Trayce are part of the reasons that AF let Belli go.

Stay tuned…

I was just thinking that. Since the Dodgers need Muncy in the lineup every day. Right. Why not put Lux in center field he has speed. Then they the Dodgers get a legit short stop like how about that short stop from the Indians Rosario. He fields great and has a good bat. The Dodgers then move James Outman to Leftfield. So, He and Thompson or Taylor are at that postion. And then if you still want Heyward to get some at bats. You have him in Center field giving Lux some days off. So, here’s a lineup with Lux in center field because the Dodgers need his bat in the lineup. And for all you saying I can’t write. Bite me. Your probable typing on a dinosaur computer desktop system. And me on a dam cellphone. So sometimes spell check changes words. So to the grammar policy you can ???!!! OFF.

lux cf

Betts RF

Freeman 1B

JD Martinez DH

Smith C

muncy 2B

Vargas 3B

Outman LF

Rasorio SS

How about that and that’s what I meant by mixing veterans with rookies. Okay!