Fangraphs has their ZIPS Projections while Baseball Prospectus has their PECOTA Projections. These are systems that take a player’s past performance and try to project the most likely outcome for the following season. It allegedly looks at all of the numbers, and all the numbers that make up the numbers, and the numbers underlying those numbers, to see which players are more likely to repeat their success and which ones benefited from good fortune. Then they make predictions as to how that player will fare in the coming season.
Dan Szymborski of Fangraphs released a preview of the ZIPS Projections for the Dodgers in 2022 last week in this tweet:
Maybe this is what baseball-starved rabid fans need in the winter and especially in the Winter of MLB Discontent, but I regard the projections about the same as I do a roll of Charmin. Well, maybe not Charmin – it is soft… more like that sandpaper rough industrial stuff.
In so far as these projections go, most are WAG’s – that’s short for Wild Ass Guesses! In most cases, they are way too good or way too bad – they seldom get it right because of the Human Factor. Computers, even with AI still do not have that right.
As an example, how do you rate Cody Bellinger? In 2021, he had a disastrous season that was injury-dominated. According to Baseball-Reference, he had a -1.5 WAR in 2021. That’s bad! That’s really bad, but just two years ago, he had a WAR of 8.6. That’s really, really good. In Mookie Bett’s 8 seasons, he has had a WAR better than that just once. Fangraphs gives Cody Bellinger a 3.1 Projected WAR in 2022, but that is really a WAG. I would suggest that you might be more accurate using this method:
An offseason of working out and getting stronger, instead of resting to rehabilitate from surgery could add “feet” to every flyball from Cody’s bat. Cody could put up a 3.1 WAR and that would be great because an average player puts up about a 2.0 WAR, but Cody has put up numbers three times that in the past, and I always say that if you can do it once, you can do it again. Will he? I don’t know, but it could be fun to watch.
I worry about Max Muncy. With his rehab and probably being unable to work out, what impact will that have on his season? I do not believe the Dodgers will sign Freddie Freeman and I do not see them trading for Greg Olsen. The Dodgers Farm Systems has a wide “breadth” of talent, which means depth as well, but they cannot afford to gut the farm… nor do they need to.
I will go on record as saying that I think Cody Bellinger will put up a WAR over 6.0 and while I will not predict what Max might do because the Dodgers treat injury issues as State Secrets and I have no clue how he is progressing. All I can say is that the Dodgers need Max Muncy to be Max Muncy and Bellinger, both Turners, Mookie, and The Fresh Prince to be what we think they are and all will be fine. Personally, I would wait until the Trade Deadline to look for a starter, but that’s just me.
Of course, the potential exists that there may not even be a season THIS YEAR!
BTW, I still say Clayton Kershaw will retire!
Discussion (10)
Disagree, not disagreeable
An angel work me up about 3:30 this morning and told me that Major League opening day will be April 10th and the games lost because of the late opening will NOT be made up.
In regard to Pepiot and Miller not pitching well at AAA:
1. Pepiot has never thrown as many innings as last year, so I would equate his poor showing at OKC as being tired at the end.
2. Miller struggled a little at Tulsa, but it was only 9 IP, so I don’t put much stock in it.
3. Clayton never pitched at AAA (except rehab).
4. I put the most stock in their “stuff” and the Dodgers won’t “push” them – they will just have to fix their control issues first… whenever that may be. If they can throw strikes, they will be there. I have no idea when that will be.
5. Landon Knack is ready now.
Fanatics is buying Topps. First they stole their MLB card deal and now they’re swallowing up what’s left of them.
Dodgers are losing Scott Powers, their Director of Quantitative Analysis, to the Astros of all places.
MLB network has severed ties with Ken Rosenthal due to his passed criticism of Rob Manfred.
https://s22927.pcdn.co/dodgers-prospect-bobby-miller-projected-to-make-mlb-debut-in-2022/2022/01/03/
Pepiot, Knack, and Miller could be factors in 2022.
One of them could win a spot quickly.
There was a report this morning on Yardbarker that Gonzalez has lost 30 pounds this winter. Should be interesting to see how the weight loss affects his stuff.
Projections from Zippy the Pin Head. No thanks.
Scherzer doing a little spin doctoring of his own. Backing down from an outright statement that he was mishandled by the Dodgers.
Oh boy, the ZIPS projections are out and Mark is still predicting Clayton Kershaw will retire.
Now, projections are projections. Didn’t work out for the Padres. No idea about Clayton. Will wait and see. But if he’s back, I’m guessing he’s pitching at Dodger Stadium.
But I get it. Not much to talk about. Okay, we’ve had Covid, still have Covid, but at least fans were back in 2021. Now this nonsense. I mean, think about it. No winter meetings, no trades or free agent signings since early December. It’s all nonsense, of course.
It’s actually really annoying. The Hot Stove Season is fun. Now the fire has gone out. But it gets worse. Four of us were planning on going to spring training in Glendale. Planned for over a year. Everybody wants to know what to do. Can’t exactly book reservations. Will we have regular spring training or a shortened version? This is messing with fans and that’s not right.
Why should I care about players, not after Corey Seager turned down $250 million over eight years last spring to remain a Dodger? How much money do you really need? Does he care about the fans? Does Scott Boras care? What about the negotiators on both sides? What about owners and increasing ticket prices, the cost of ballpark food?
I’ve already purchased my season tickets for 2022. I’m sorry I did that. Maybe fans need a seat at the negotiating table. Maybe Mark and Bear should represent us.
Comments on your comments:
1) I’m about 50-50 on a CK retirement but it wouldn’t surprise me.
2) No way we trade for Greg Olsen – we don’t need either a retired catcher or tight end. Now, as for Matt Olson, unless Max is in much worse shape than they’re letting on, I think the prospect cost isn’t worth it, and even then it would probably make more sense to go after Freddie first, again in order to save the prospects.
3) I don’t agree that we should wait for the trade deadline to go after more starting pitching. Last year we had 8 starters to begin the season and look how that turned out. This year we can count on Buehler and Urias. Heany is a total roll of the dice. Catman may or may not come back completely from his shoulder problems. Price can’t seem to go more than 3 innings. Bauer, even if reinstated, may suffer from all that down time. CK’s arm may fall off. White and Jackson are totally unproven at this point. We need at least one, if not two more starters going into the season, and even that might not prove to be enough. If we wait until the trade deadline, we might find ourselves looking for 4 starters.