You Shouldn t Fly a 747 from Row 13
Occasionally, I have a little more information than some of you (at times), but it s not nearly as much as it used to be when I had several members of the Dodgers Organization on Speed dial. Jeff probably has a lot more inside connections than I do now. Since Andrew Friedman became President of Baseball Operations for the Dodgers, I have very little inside information and that is by Andrew s
Occasionally, I have a little more information than some of you (at times), but it’s not nearly as much as it used to be when I had several members of the Dodgers Organization on Speed dial. Jeff probably has a lot more inside connections than I do now. Since Andrew Friedman became President of Baseball Operations for the Dodgers, I have very little inside information… and that is by Andrew’s mandate. The Dodgers play their cards close to their vest and a leak is a “fireable offense.” I don’t particularly like it, but I respect it. If I were AF, that is exactly what I would do.
When was the last time you saw Billy Gaspirano sit down with a blogger for a two-hour interview like I did with Logan White about 10 years ago? The quick answer is “Never.” We don’t know what we don’t know because Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers want it that way… and I do not blame them. That’s why it really bugs me after every close game or after every loss, many of you blame it on Dave Roberts, simply because of the following:
- Because you have all the inside information and know better;
- Doc has cost the Dodgers hundreds of games, because you know it;
- You are psychic and know better;
- You have never ran anything in your life and this is your chance; or
- You simply have an irrational hatred of Doc;
For example, recently, Dave Roberts was repeatedly criticized for bringing in Kenley Jansen to blow games. I think many of you have failed to realize that baseball has changed and so is how the front office and manager communicate. Gone are the Sparkey Andreson’s, Lou Pinella’s, Tommy Lasorda’s, Jim Leyland’s, Dallas Green’s, and Earl Weaver’s who would do what they “damn well pleased!” Baseball has changed. We don’t see stuff like this anymore:
Why? Because the management of a baseball team has changed, like it or not. Today, there is so much more information and data. Managers are now hired with the understanding that they “collaborate” with the front office and analytics people to make “informed decisions.” Many of you don’t like that, but I guarantee that while those types of decisions do not work all the time, they work more of the time than the “gut feelings” of a manager from yesterday.
Shifts don’t always work, but they work more often than not shifting (which is why I would like to ban them). This brings me to the point I want to make. You can blast Dave Roberts for rolling out Kenley Jansen, game-after-game, but I guarantee that it was a “collaborative” effort between Roberts, the Front Office, and the Dodgers’ Pitching Coaches. While I admit that I do not have inside information, it seems logical and likely to me that the Front Office, Coaches, and Roberts believed that Kenley’s problems were mechanical and could be fixed and they were willing to lose a few battles in order to win the war.
Behind the scenes, it is quite likely that Kenley was working with Mark Prior, Josh Bard, Charlie Hough, and/or Rick Honeycutt and they all believed he could be “fixed.” Well, he looked “fixed” on Saturday night, but only time will tell if it will last. Yes, I would love to have Craig Kimbrell, but at what cost? Not Keibert Ruiz, Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Josiah Gray, Diego Cartaya, or Miguel Vargas… and I doubt he could be obtained without one of those players UNLESS the Dodgers take back Jason Heyward. Then, I think Kimbrell could be obtained for a couple of #11-30 Prospects. I would do that, but it ain’t my money!
Roberts was using Jansen in save situations in order to determine if Kenley could stay as the closer and the front office and coaches were part of that equation. Roberts was the “point man” for what was likely a Management Decision by many individuals. The same thing is true with Dave Roberts lineups. If you have ever been in the “Bowels of Dodger Stadium” you will know that the Dodgers have an analytics department that is huge and second to none in MLB.
When you say “Why did Doc bring in _____________ to pitch to blank? He has an OPS of ___________and he has an ERA of ___________.” Yes, you looked at a few metrics, but I GUARANTEE YOU, that Doc has about 50 more metrics that the Dodgers have developed that give him a lot more insight than Fangraphs, Baseball-Prospectus, and Baseball-Reference. You are playing checkers while he is playing chess. Actually, it’s more likely you are playing PONG on Atrai and he is playing with a Supercomputer.
Literally!
Thinking you have more information than Dave Roberts is like trying to fly a 747 from Row 13, Seat C. It’s totally delusional, but if it makes you feel good… have at it. I just think it is plain silly. Now, don’t get me wrong, Dave Roberts makes many mistakes. Every manager does. I disagree with things he does… the same as I disagree with Friedman, but I look at their overall body of work and have to say that they both are pretty damn good. There is a human element in everything, but I happen to think he is a lot better than many of you give him credit! I disagree with his politics, but can still respect him.
Remember the greatest baseball tacticians only look that way when their players execute. Certainly, I would welcome Craig Kimbrell, but as I said earlier “at what cost?” Several teams want him and I cannot see Andrew Friedman further depleting the Farm System for instant gratification. Tony Gonsolin and David Price did their part to show that they can hold down a rotation spot… and one of them can go back to the pen when Clayton Kershaw returns (which should be later this week or early next week). To lighten the workload for Buehler and Urias, I think it’s possible the Dodgers go with a six-man rotation.
I do not see the Dodgers trading for Scherzer or Turner and really, if healthy, and it appears they are a rotation of Buehler, Urias, Kershaw, Gonsolin, Price, and Gray is OK… if Bellinger, Seager, Betts, and the rest of the guys can hit. It’s certainly possible that they get healthy in August and become the Big Blue Wrecking Crew again. I read fans lamenting the Dodger’s lack of hitting the past two days but remember that they were missing Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, and Mookie Betts. When healthy, all four of these players have proven track records of being at the top of their respective positions.
When they come back, I do not expect to see an immediate surge – it will take some time for them to get their swing and timing back, but I can see very good days ahead for this team. Knebel, Nelson, Treinen, Gonzalez, Vesia, Kelly, Graterol, and (gulp) Jansen have the potential to be great. Yes, Kenley scares me too. Can they keep him mechanically sound? It’s a tightrope act. I’ll take Kimbrell for the right price, please!
How They Get There is Irrelevant
The Dodgers have been bit by the injury bug all year long and the repercussions may last well into September. However, the fact is, if they can stay the course they will be in the playoffs, and at that juncture, everything changes. IF they can get healthy for the playoffs and the World Series, they could be a very dangerous team.
We saw how Cody Bellinger struggled after coming back. Expect Seager to do the same. Tony Gonsolin and many other pitchers have experienced varying degrees of success after returning from the IL. Jimmy Nelson did not miss a beat, but Victor Gonzalez took a few games to get it back (and still does not have it), and so did the Bazooka. Garrett Cleavinger is showing signs that he might be a viable bullpen piece (next year, as he still walks too many), but Phil Bickford and Alex Vesia may be the real deals this year. You can see Alex growing in confidence. When Corey Knebel comes back, he will likely need some ramp-up time. Darien Nunez? Maybe next year.
Mookie, Corey, Cody, and Max should be back soon. Cody was just starting to put it together when he went down again. David Price and Josiah Gray are showing promise in their new positions. The point I am going to make is that progress is not linear and it may be well into September until this team really clicks. I’ll take that. Nothing like getting hot at the right time. Could this be the lineup in September?
- Betts 2B
- Seager SS
- Turner 3B
- Muncy 1B
- Taylor RF
- Smith C
- Bellinger CF
- Pollock LF
It remains a possibility. I think we will see Ruiz at some point and I am very encouraged by JoJo Grays’ progress and prospects. Yesterday “Dave” wrote this:
“This is silly, but there is a large dark place in me that would love to see the Giants win the west, the Padres come in second, and the Dodgers get into the playoffs by winning the 163rd game of the year to sneak in as the second NL wildcard, then proceed to win the chip. There’s some dark magic in that scenario that satisfies an itch that just running away with it can’t reach. The crowning touch would be a whole winter of listening to midgie fans whine about the unbelievably lucky Dodgers.
I know, it’s an impossible dream.“
It’s not silly, Dave. it’s a cool possibility. Not only a possibility but something that could be very likely…. barring a Giants collapse and that could certainly happen!
A Quick Primer on Masks
This was mentioned a couple of days ago and I just want to be clear about a few things. Do masks work all the time? No, they do not and if they are not used right, they may be as bad as having no mask. However, if they are used right, they are very effective… even the cloth ones (if they are double or triple layers).
- Masks are not extremely effective at preventing you from infecting others if you have COVID-19… unless you actually wear them!
- Masks are not nearly as effective at preventing you from getting COVID-19 because most people do not utilize them properly.
If you touch your mask, you should take it off, wash and sanitize your hands and put a new mask back on, You should do this each time you touch your mask. If you don’t do that, you will still protect others, but not yourself so much. People who slip their masks down to eat and slide it back up are doing nothing except conforming and sometimes you just have to do that, but it is not effective at preventing disease. I will have a mask on from Indy to Las Vegas on Wednesday and back. I hate them, but wear them and try and wear them properly, however, I still slip up. Everyone does. I have heard that 80% of people who caught COVID-19 wore masks. If you are going to mask up, try and do it the right way. They are effective, when used properly and let me tell you, you do not want to get COVID-19. It’s no fun.
This has been a public service announcement.
It Your Mind Open or Closed?
Remember that successful people tend to approach life with an open mindset — an eagerness to learn and a willingness to be wrong. The other group digs their heels in at the first sign of disagreement and would rather die than be wrong. Closed-minded people don’t want their ideas challenged. They are typically frustrated that they can’t get the other person to agree with them instead of being curious as to why the other person disagrees.
Closed-minded people are more interested in proving themselves right than in getting the best outcome. They don’t ask questions. They want to show you where you’re wrong without understanding where you’re coming from. They get angry when you ask them to explain something. They think people who ask questions are slowing them down. And they think you’re an idiot if you don’t agree.
Open-minded people see disagreement as a thoughtful means to expand their knowledge. They don’t get angry or upset at questions; rather, they want to identify where the disagreement lies so they can correct their misperceptions. They realize that being right means changing their minds when someone else knows something they don’t. Closed-minded people are more likely to make statements than ask questions.
“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.”
— F. Scott Fitzgerald
We shall continue to keep an open mind here and we value everyone’s opinions… even Bumsrap trade ideas for Joc Pederson. OK, here’s the cookie: If Mookie is indeed hurt as it appears, Andrew Friedman has a relationship with Alex Anthopoulos, and if the Braves keep falling, I could see Joc Pederson coming back to LA by Saturday! For real! Bums would be in high cotton!
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Discussion (234)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Padres get Frazier from PTT for three prospects. Preller probably not done yet too.They really are going all in this season.
Open on www.espn.comhttps://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31884344/san-diego-padres-acquire-all-star-second-baseman-adam-frazier-pittsburgh-pirates-sources-sayGo Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dodgers get Scherzer from the Nationals for Ruiz and pitcher beeter.
The current SP in the last 30 days:
W L ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO WHIP AVG
Bueller 3 -0 1.69 5 5 32.0 20 8 6 8 37 0.88 .177
Urias 3 -0 2.45 4 4 25.2 19 9 7 7 20 1.01 .207
Gonsolin 2 -1 2.14 5 4 21.0 15 5 5 11 23 1.24 .195
Price 1 -0 2.45 4 3 14.2 12 4 4 4 14 1.09 .226
This is an excerpt from an article on the Athletic—probably to late for anyone to read but here it is anyway.
Urías’ strikeout rate and HR/9 have both moved into worrisome territory. His final start of May, in which he gave up seven runs (six earned) over five innings against the Giants, actually had some encouraging signs (such as 12 swinging strikes in 82 pitches), but he has not been the same since. Over his last nine starts, Urías has induced whiffs on only 9.6 percent of his pitches, and hitters have made contact with 88.8 percent of the in-zone pitches they have swung at. That’s actually a bigger concern than the spike in home runs against the lefty, as he has compiled a favorable 4.8 percent barrel rate and a 90.7 mph EV FB/LD during this recent span. Lately, Urías has a plate discipline profile that is similar to Merrill Kelly’s. That’s not necessarily bad, but it’s not what you expect from a pitcher who is rostered in just about every league.
Is he getting tired???
Is this a record for responses in one day?
Masks. Wear them. Vaccine. Get it.
“The right’s attack on Fauci shows it has nothing in its policy tank but slogans.”
I doubt the Nats trade Turner.
Bumgarner (sic) is hardly a little bitch. He sure seems like an a**hole but he’s nobody’s bitch. Don’t believe it? I dare you to say it to his face.
Bauer. For a guy who “could care less” Jason you sure have strong opinions on the subject. I don’t know if he’s “guilty” of anything but I still believe he’s done as a Dodger. Maybe New York would tolerate him. Whatever. The story needs to come to an end.
And I don’t care if you get Covid either. Good luck with it.
Its debatable that Jansen should have been brought into the last game of the Giants series. I would say no, but whatever. I just don’t think that its debatable that he should have stayed in the game as long as he did. He got Yaz on 3 pitches and then was garbage. He was missing almost all his spots and made a ton of completely non-competitive pitches. He couldn’t even come close to putting away the guys from AAA.
The game reminded me of watching Roberts sit there are stare like a deer in the headlights as Rendon and Soto were hitting back to back shots in the 2019 playoffs. Just sickening. Short sided. No backup plan.
As far as Bauer, PPD has been looking into this for months. They haven’t arrested him. That speaks volumes to me. There is much more to the story that poor, wide-eyed girl meets rich athlete and gets abused.
Masks…..total joke. Id bet my life that the masks the kids “wear” in school have more germs and crap on them that any risk of Covid is to them. Absolutely gross and filthy. I just about never wear a mask. Never got Covid and I don’t restrict myself at all. Could care less if I get it.
Fauci….please. Total and absolute fraud.
Nats apparently up to trade Turner as well. I would make that deal for just about anyone! Dude is a stud. I’ll take him and Max for Ruiz, Lux, Gray and a few lowers. Bye Seager and your 300 million want.
I don’t get the Bauer hate. At least before all this. The guy is goofy for sure but to act like he is Milton Bradley or even Puig is ridiculous at best. Watching his YouTube channel a bit here and there has made me like him quite a bit. I think, or did, that he is a good guy for the game overall. Not a little bitch like Bumgardner and doesn’t take things too seriously as far as what other players do. I think that whatever the results of the investigation show, he will have a hard time coming back. Too many minds were made up by the release of a press statement from the accusers lawyer. LOL Like that would be the gospel truth. Again, the fact that Bauer hasn’t been arrested speaks volumes as to where this is likely headed. I can’t see the PPD letting Bauer walk the earth all this time IF they know that he is guilty of beating/raping/abusing this women, 100x in this political climate of MeToo and everyone is a victim.
If Bauer did all that stuff she alleges, hang him from the light pole and let the birds eat him up till he rots. Could care less. Somehow I just don’t think that is the case though.
Courtesy of an Alex Freedman tweet:
A good looking first inning for Corey Knebel in his first rehab game:
-K swinging
-Fly out (Bregman – also rehabbing)
-K looking
15 pitches/9 strikes
Teams are showing a lot of interest in Trea Turner. Apparently the Nats have not told them to hang up the phone. It would take a major offer but it seems as though he might be available.
He would sure look nice batting behind Mookie in the lineup.
Looks the A’s will be acquiring LHRP Andrew Chafin from the Cubs. It looks like the Cubs sell of has started.
I do not expect AF to make a move before Thursday at least. He has rarely made trades more than a day or so before the deadline. Machado trade being the big exception. I really believe he misses being able to add players at the end of August like they used to do. He got Granderson and Utley that way.
I wonder if there is a vaccine for diarrhea of the mouth? Seems many suffer from that affliction. I quit getting flu shots after I got one in the Army that laid me up for a week. I don’t get the shots, and I never get the flu. Got the Covid series months ago with only a sore arm for my troubles. I got my shot because I did a lot of research on the vaccine I was receiving. But, it is your body. What you do with it should be your choice, not some government order.
“The shingles vax is the same thing as chicken pox. EVERYONE gets it. But then when older for some it starts wearing off and then when old peeps get one they call it the shingles vax.” Just ran across this post from por…boy.
This one is from the Mayo Clinic web site…. “Varicella-zoster vaccines are approved for children age 12 months and older to prevent chickenpox and for adults age 50 and older to prevent shingles, but the formulations are different, and the vaccines are not interchangeable.”
I had a big stack of soapboxes and I can’t find them anywhere. Do you guys know where I might find them?
I think it’s funny how everyone thinks the Dodgers are such a noble organization that they couldn’t possibly employ the services of Bauer any longer. You think those hedge fund billionaire owners never did anything you might find unsettling? Hell, even the blessed and beloved O’Mally family kicked a bunch of people out of their homes to build Dodger stadium and he was a pussy cat compared to Guggenheim. Hell, Kasten got torched on Twitter for his own Bauer comments. Did that sound like a guy that was ready to cut bait? Y’all as naive as the guy that thinks the stripper loves him, or as naive as Bauer on an instagram DM.
lol
2021 Dodgers draft picks and signings updated
Round Pick # Pos Player Bat/Throw Age* School Slot value Signed?
1 29 LHP Maddux Bruns L/L 19 UMS Wright prep (AL) $2,424,600 $2,197,500
3 101 RHP Peter Heubeck R/R 18 Gilman School (MD) $577,000 $1,269,500
4 131 RHP Nick Nastrini R/R 21 UCLA $430,800 $497,500
5 162 RHP Ben Casparius R/R 22 UConn $318,200 $247,500
6 192 RHP Emmet Sheehan R/R 21 Boston College $247,000 $244,500
7 222 RHP Ryan Sublette R/R 22 Texas Tech $194,400 $147,500
8 252 LHP Ben Harris L/L 21 Georgia $162,700 $197,500
9 282 LHP Lael Lockhart S/L 23 Arkansas $149,800 $2,500
10 312 RHP Michael Hobbs R/R 21 St. Mary’s College $142,200 $2,500
11 342 LHP Justin Wrobleski L/L 20 Oklahoma State
12 372 LHP Ronan Kopp L/L 18 South Mountain CC (AZ) Yes
13 402 RHP Antonio Knowles R/R 21 Florida SouthWestern State College
14 432 RHP Jordan Leasure R/R 22 Tampa
15 462 RHP Madison Jeffrey L/R 21 West Virginia Yes
16 492 SS Michael Sirota R/R 18 The Gunnery School (CT)
17 522 LHP Adam Tulloch L/L 20 West Virginia
18 552 OF Damon Keith R/R 21 Cal Baptist Yes
19 582 RHP Gabe Emmett R/R 20 Folsom Lake College
20 612 RHP Charlie Connolly R/R 22 Navy
Totals $4,646,700 +$159,800 (3.44%)
*age as of June 30, 2021
Place your bets;
Some Max Scherzer trade odds:
New York Mets 3/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 7/2
Milwaukee Brewers 15/4
New York Yankees 9/2
Houston Astros 5/1
Boston Red Sox 6/1
Oakland Athletics 7/1
(From Bet Online.)
I don’t think we need an ace. We need an innings eater. I know Colorado doesn’t want to trade with us but they’re going to lose Story and Gray anyway. Maybe if we offered Lux and Barnes they might bite. Gray and Story, an arm and a right handed bat. You would have a leg up to resign both and may have a replacement SS if Seager walks. I’d put Seager at 3rd, Turner at first and Muncy at 2nd. Others might just put Seager at 1st. Next you can bring up Ruiz. Another option, give Seager his wish and trade him to the Yankees for Torres or maybe Judge and a BP piece.
My last word on Trevor Bauer. I hope he never pitches for the Dodgers again. I think he would be a huge distraction to the team. Guilty or innocent, I have no clue. But I am sure his team mates have distanced themselves from him for reasons we do not know. They do not need that kind of distraction in the club house.
Hall of Fame inductions yesterday, and it was done very quietly. Hawk Harrelson went into the Broadcasters wing. When there is no Dodger game, I try to read as much as possible. It is something I really enjoy doing. Reading another Jeffery Deaver, Lincoln Rymes novel. The writer of “The Bone Collector” has written some pretty good stuff over the years. After him, I think I like Clancy the best.
Aren’t the Dodgers the innocent party in this. Either way it turns out it seems somebody is responsible for their cost. Or, with the Dodgers agreeing to the administrative leave do they forfeit any financial reimbursement? If it turns out he is totally clear the Dodgers have paid for services not rendered. If it is a scam how do the Dodgers recoup?
If TB is totally guilty how do the Dodgers recoup for services not rendered or can they? It seems the Dodgers should not have to pay for the courts timeline or MLB timeline? How does the Dodgers insurance play into this if they have any?
Ruiz AAA west player of the week at age 23. He is a keeper!
No Mark, en lo particular nada en contra de Roberts solo que toma algunas decisiones durante el juego que son tan ilógicas que como tu sueles decir ” hasta un invidente lo vería” como el mal uso del bullpen que los grandes managers clásicos de tiempos pasados jamás harían, juagadas a la ofensiva o defensiva que nunca serán obsoletas, pienso como algunas otras personas de este Blog que se somete lacayunamente a los mandatos de la oficina principal, y en mi opinión es incorrecto porque hasta en esto, la dignidad tiene límites.
With respect to the need for MLB to make a decision on Trevor Bauer, above Mark stated, “The Trade Deadline cannot be the determining factor”. Of course it can. Only the Commissioner has the power to suspend, not the team. The Commissioner can cede that authority to the team but as of yet he has chosen not to. If I am Mark Walter, et al, I am telling Manfred “no more Administrative Leaves after tomorrow. Either suspend him or reinstate him so that we can make a decision that is best for our team.” It does not need to be adjudicated for their to be a suspension without pay. Go ahead and suspend without pay and let’s see how fast Bauer’s attorneys want to get in front of an arbitration panel to contest it. There is plenty of precedence to suspending without legal due process. And if so, what do you wait for…lifting of the restraining order, criminal court, or civil? Different standards. Decisions need to be made before Friday at 1:00 PM. That date does not move. The Trial does not pick up again until next Monday and Tuesday, and possibly August 19. The decision will probably not be made that day. And that is only for the restraining order. We have no idea if the Pasadena Police will provide sufficient evidence for the DA to ask for an indictment. The Dodgers should not have to wait for Manfred to make a decision. If he cannot, then let LAD decide.
Roberto Osuna was suspended for 75 days, and there was no trial, thus no conviction. But there is no doubt in my mind that he beat the holy living s*** out of his girlfriend. Anyone who saw the pictures, questioned why he wasn’t in jail. Osuna chose not to contest the suspension. Did money change hands in a settlement? Hmmmmmm??? After the suspension, MLB reinstated him. Don’t tell me other teams would not be interested in a trade for Bauer. The scum-sucking Assterisks Cheaters traded for Osuna while he was still on suspension. All it would take would be one team and how much $$$$ LAD would have to pay.
Pirates trade Holmes to the Yankees for a couple of minor leaguers. Chris Taylor named player of the week in the National League, and Kike Hernandez named player of the week in the American League. Texas and Oklahoma leaving Big 12 for SEC. Dodgers going to Frisco with a short bench again 14 pitchers 12 position players.
Here is my frustration with the whole TB saga. The more MLB extends Trevor’s “administrative leave,” the more the Dodger’s are having to pay for MLB’s inability to make a decision on what to do with him. The Dodger’s are currently paying his (substantial) salary which may be inhibiting them from finding a replacement. MLB needs to grow a pair and make a decision so that the Dodgers can move on, one way or another.
I realize that MLB probably does not have much more information than anyone else as lawyers on both sides probably will not let their clients talk to MLB, but the current status quo is horribly unfair to the Dodgers. I’m not sure what the answer is, but maybe if the MLB wants to indefinitely delay making a decision, they should have to pay TB’s salary.