You Shouldn t Fly a 747 from Row 13

Occasionally, I have a little more information than some of you (at times), but it’s not nearly as much as it used to be when I had several members of the Dodgers Organization on Speed dial. Jeff probably has a lot more inside connections than I do now. Since Andrew Friedman became President of Baseball Operations for the Dodgers, I have very little inside information… and that is by Andrew’s mandate. The Dodgers play their cards close to their vest and a leak is a “fireable offense.” I don’t particularly like it, but I respect it. If I were AF, that is exactly what I would do.

When was the last time you saw Billy Gaspirano sit down with a blogger for a two-hour interview like I did with Logan White about 10 years ago? The quick answer is “Never.” We don’t know what we don’t know because Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers want it that way… and I do not blame them. That’s why it really bugs me after every close game or after every loss, many of you blame it on Dave Roberts, simply because of the following:

1. Because you have all the inside information and know better;
2. Doc has cost the Dodgers hundreds of games, because you know it;
3. You are psychic and know better;
4. You have never ran anything in your life and this is your chance; or
5. You simply have an irrational hatred of Doc;

For example, recently, Dave Roberts was repeatedly criticized for bringing in Kenley Jansen to blow games. I think many of you have failed to realize that baseball has changed and so is how the front office and manager communicate. Gone are the Sparkey Andreson’s, Lou Pinella’s, Tommy Lasorda’s, Jim Leyland’s, Dallas Green’s, and Earl Weaver’s who would do what they “damn well pleased!” Baseball has changed. We don’t see stuff like this anymore:

Why? Because the management of a baseball team has changed, like it or not. Today, there is so much more information and data. Managers are now hired with the understanding that they “collaborate” with the front office and analytics people to make “informed decisions.” Many of you don’t like that, but I guarantee that while those types of decisions do not work all the time, they work more of the time than the “gut feelings” of a manager from yesterday.

Shifts don’t always work, but they work more often than not shifting (which is why I would like to ban them). This brings me to the point I want to make. You can blast Dave Roberts for rolling out Kenley Jansen, game-after-game, but I guarantee that it was a “collaborative” effort between Roberts, the Front Office, and the Dodgers’ Pitching Coaches. While I admit that I do not have inside information, it seems logical and likely to me that the Front Office, Coaches, and Roberts believed that Kenley’s problems were mechanical and could be fixed and they were willing to lose a few battles in order to win the war.

Behind the scenes, it is quite likely that Kenley was working with Mark Prior, Josh Bard, Charlie Hough, and/or Rick Honeycutt and they all believed he could be “fixed.” Well, he looked “fixed” on Saturday night, but only time will tell if it will last. Yes, I would love to have Craig Kimbrell, but at what cost? Not Keibert Ruiz, Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Josiah Gray, Diego Cartaya, or Miguel Vargas… and I doubt he could be obtained without one of those players UNLESS the Dodgers take back Jason Heyward. Then, I think Kimbrell could be obtained for a couple of #11-30 Prospects. I would do that, but it ain’t my money!

Roberts was using Jansen in save situations in order to determine if Kenley could stay as the closer and the front office and coaches were part of that equation. Roberts was the “point man” for what was likely a Management Decision by many individuals. The same thing is true with Dave Roberts lineups. If you have ever been in the “Bowels of Dodger Stadium” you will know that the Dodgers have an analytics department that is huge and second to none in MLB.

When you say “Why did Doc bring in _____________ to pitch to blank? He has an OPS of ___________and he has an ERA of ___________.” Yes, you looked at a few metrics, but I GUARANTEE YOU, that Doc has about 50 more metrics that the Dodgers have developed that give him a lot more insight than Fangraphs, Baseball-Prospectus, and Baseball-Reference. You are playing checkers while he is playing chess. Actually, it’s more likely you are playing PONG on Atrai and he is playing with a Supercomputer.

Literally!

Thinking you have more information than Dave Roberts is like trying to fly a 747 from Row 13, Seat C. It’s totally delusional, but if it makes you feel good… have at it. I just think it is plain silly. Now, don’t get me wrong, Dave Roberts makes many mistakes. Every manager does. I disagree with things he does… the same as I disagree with Friedman, but I look at their overall body of work and have to say that they both are pretty damn good. There is a human element in everything, but I happen to think he is a lot better than many of you give him credit! I disagree with his politics, but can still respect him.

Remember the greatest baseball tacticians only look that way when their players execute. Certainly, I would welcome Craig Kimbrell, but as I said earlier “at what cost?” Several teams want him and I cannot see Andrew Friedman further depleting the Farm System for instant gratification. Tony Gonsolin and David Price did their part to show that they can hold down a rotation spot… and one of them can go back to the pen when Clayton Kershaw returns (which should be later this week or early next week). To lighten the workload for Buehler and Urias, I think it’s possible the Dodgers go with a six-man rotation.

I do not see the Dodgers trading for Scherzer or Turner and really, if healthy, and it appears they are a rotation of Buehler, Urias, Kershaw, Gonsolin, Price, and Gray is OK… if Bellinger, Seager, Betts, and the rest of the guys can hit. It’s certainly possible that they get healthy in August and become the Big Blue Wrecking Crew again. I read fans lamenting the Dodger’s lack of hitting the past two days but remember that they were missing Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, and Mookie Betts. When healthy, all four of these players have proven track records of being at the top of their respective positions.

When they come back, I do not expect to see an immediate surge – it will take some time for them to get their swing and timing back, but I can see very good days ahead for this team. Knebel, Nelson, Treinen, Gonzalez, Vesia, Kelly, Graterol, and (gulp) Jansen have the potential to be great. Yes, Kenley scares me too. Can they keep him mechanically sound? It’s a tightrope act. I’ll take Kimbrell for the right price, please!

How They Get There is Irrelevant

The Dodgers have been bit by the injury bug all year long and the repercussions may last well into September. However, the fact is, if they can stay the course they will be in the playoffs, and at that juncture, everything changes. IF they can get healthy for the playoffs and the World Series, they could be a very dangerous team.

We saw how Cody Bellinger struggled after coming back. Expect Seager to do the same. Tony Gonsolin and many other pitchers have experienced varying degrees of success after returning from the IL. Jimmy Nelson did not miss a beat, but Victor Gonzalez took a few games to get it back (and still does not have it), and so did the Bazooka. Garrett Cleavinger is showing signs that he might be a viable bullpen piece (next year, as he still walks too many), but Phil Bickford and Alex Vesia may be the real deals this year. You can see Alex growing in confidence. When Corey Knebel comes back, he will likely need some ramp-up time. Darien Nunez? Maybe next year.

Mookie, Corey, Cody, and Max should be back soon. Cody was just starting to put it together when he went down again. David Price and Josiah Gray are showing promise in their new positions. The point I am going to make is that progress is not linear and it may be well into September until this team really clicks. I’ll take that. Nothing like getting hot at the right time. Could this be the lineup in September?

1. Betts 2B
2. Seager SS
3. Turner 3B
4. Muncy 1B
5. Taylor RF
6. Smith C
7. Bellinger CF
8. Pollock LF

It remains a possibility. I think we will see Ruiz at some point and I am very encouraged by JoJo Grays’ progress and prospects. Yesterday “Dave” wrote this:

“This is silly, but there is a large dark place in me that would love to see the Giants win the west, the Padres come in second, and the Dodgers get into the playoffs by winning the 163rd game of the year to sneak in as the second NL wildcard, then proceed to win the chip. There’s some dark magic in that scenario that satisfies an itch that just running away with it can’t reach. The crowning touch would be a whole winter of listening to midgie fans whine about the unbelievably lucky Dodgers.

I know, it’s an impossible dream.“

It’s not silly, Dave. it’s a cool possibility. Not only a possibility but something that could be very likely…. barring a Giants collapse and that could certainly happen!

A Quick Primer on Masks

This was mentioned a couple of days ago and I just want to be clear about a few things. Do masks work all the time? No, they do not and if they are not used right, they may be as bad as having no mask. However, if they are used right, they are very effective… even the cloth ones (if they are double or triple layers).

1. Masks are not extremely effective at preventing you from infecting others if you have COVID-19… unless you actually wear them!
2. Masks are not nearly as effective at preventing you from getting COVID-19 because most people do not utilize them properly.

If you touch your mask, you should take it off, wash and sanitize your hands and put a new mask back on, You should do this each time you touch your mask. If you don’t do that, you will still protect others, but not yourself so much. People who slip their masks down to eat and slide it back up are doing nothing except conforming and sometimes you just have to do that, but it is not effective at preventing disease. I will have a mask on from Indy to Las Vegas on Wednesday and back. I hate them, but wear them and try and wear them properly, however, I still slip up. Everyone does. I have heard that 80% of people who caught COVID-19 wore masks. If you are going to mask up, try and do it the right way. They are effective, when used properly and let me tell you, you do not want to get COVID-19. It’s no fun.

This has been a public service announcement.

It Your Mind Open or Closed?

Remember that successful people tend to approach life with an open mindset — an eagerness to learn and a willingness to be wrong. The other group digs their heels in at the first sign of disagreement and would rather die than be wrong. Closed-minded people don’t want their ideas challenged. They are typically frustrated that they can’t get the other person to agree with them instead of being curious as to why the other person disagrees.

Closed-minded people are more interested in proving themselves right than in getting the best outcome. They don’t ask questions. They want to show you where you’re wrong without understanding where you’re coming from. They get angry when you ask them to explain something. They think people who ask questions are slowing them down. And they think you’re an idiot if you don’t agree.

Open-minded people see disagreement as a thoughtful means to expand their knowledge. They don’t get angry or upset at questions; rather, they want to identify where the disagreement lies so they can correct their misperceptions. They realize that being right means changing their minds when someone else knows something they don’t. Closed-minded people are more likely to make statements than ask questions.

“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.”

— F. Scott Fitzgerald

We shall continue to keep an open mind here and we value everyone’s opinions… even Bumsrap trade ideas for Joc Pederson. OK, here’s the cookie: If Mookie is indeed hurt as it appears, Andrew Friedman has a relationship with Alex Anthopoulos, and if the Braves keep falling, I could see Joc Pederson coming back to LA by Saturday! For real! Bums would be in high cotton!