Just how good were the Dodgers in 2022? Well, of course, they were bounced in the first round of the playoffs, so that is all many of us remember. However, a lot went wrong throughout the year. Consider this:
- How many teams could win 111 games and have their ACE pitch in just 11 games before losing him for the season?
- How many teams could survive having their closer implode and have their backup closer miss almost the entire season, and then the backup, backup closer blow out his knee and still win 111 games?
- How many teams could have their Centerfielder and Thirdbaseman (who were generally counted on to be 30+ HR hitters, hit below the Mendoza line most of the year?
- How many teams could lose one of their TOP 3 starters who had previously won the Cy Young for the season?
- How many teams could have two more of their starters go on the IL twice and miss about 40% of the season?
- How many teams could lose their best starter (statistically) for two months and still win 111 games?
- How many teams could survive having their team leader (Justin Turner) hit within the Mendoza Zone for half the season?
- How many teams could survive having their main utility man strike out 160 times?
Ask yourself how any team could survive any of those events and still win 111 games. Then ask yourself how a team could survive ALL of those and win 111 games. I think it’s pretty amazing what they did in spite of all the adversity. If that isn’t a testament to their depth, I don’t know what is. But no one cares about depth… they want World Series Titles.
The Dodgers have the best record in baseball since Andrew Friedman arrived but only one World Series Title to show for it. Houston has won two World Series Titles in that same span, but do I have to remind you that one was stolen? Would fans feel differently if the Dodgers had two titles and the Astros had one?
We have learned that the team with the best record in a season only wins the World Series 20% of the time. Best Regular Season Record and World Series Winner are two different animals. I hear fans say that “Friedman needs to build a team that can win the World Series.” How do you do that? I would love for someone to explain that to me, because if try, you will look really silly. HELLO! Did I mention that the team with the best record in the regular season fails to win the World Series 80% of the time?
You build the best team that you can with the resources that you have. The Dodgers had a lot go wrong in 2022, and now it appears they could be on the cusp of a youth movement. As a 60-year Dodger fan, this is the best ten-year stretch I can remember. Yes, I would like to win the World Series every year, but being in the running every year is better than what most teams have! The Dodgers are a diversion or hobby for me… I was upset for a few hours after they lost to the Padres, and then I was planning for 2023. Life goes on…
The Cody Bellinger Situation
Cody Bellinger is not officially gone. It is possible that he could re-sign with the Dodgers, but those odds certainly diminished when the Dodgers failed to non-tender him. Is Cody hurt? Did he get his feelings hurt? Is he mad? Does he feel he has been treated unfairly? Does he feel he needs a fresh start? Does he love being in LA? How does he feel about his teammates and coaches? How do they feel about him? There is a lot we don’t know, and many fans assume Cody is as good as gone. The fact is, “We do not know most of this.” Therefore, we wait. The only competition the Dodgers face to sign Cody are 29 other teams. The Dodgers say they still believe that he can get back to what he was, and maybe AF has an incentive-based deal in mind. There is a reasonable chance that the Dodgers have not seen the last of Belli in Blue.
Is it possible for Trayce Thompson and James Outman to enter Spring Training as the Starting CF Platoon? Sure it is! It’s possible that they could provide good defense and hit 30+ home runs combined for about 10% of what Cody Bellinger would have cost. I do not think Aaron Judge is a possibility, but I do believe AF will blow out that smokescreen.
Let me throw out a crazy scenario: What if Brian Cashman goes to Andrew Friedman and says, “We want to sign Aaron Judge, and while we know that the Giants will be involved, we would like for you to say out of the bidding, and we will make you a sweet deal to stay out of it. If you send us two Top 30 Prospects, we will send you Giancarlo Stanton and $60 Million in cash, as long as you stay out of the bidding for Judge.”
Stanton is owed $160 Million over the next five years. The cash takes it down to $100 million or $20 Million a year for Stanton, who gets to come home and be the Full-Time DH (so as to keep his injury opportunities to a minimum). Yes, he is 33. Yes, he had his worst year in OB% and BA. However, has likely has a few good years left… especially if it is exclusively as a DH. Then the Dodgers can make a big push to sign Xander Bogarts. I think he is a better hitter than Trea Turner; he will be cheaper and will transition to 3B in a couple of years and play until he is 40 (he has that kind of body). Check this out:
- Betts RF (R)
- Lux 2B (L)
- Freeman 1B (L)
- Stanton DH (R)
- Muncy 3B (L)
- Smith C (R)
- Bogaerts SS (R)
- Vargas (R) LF
- Thompson/Outman CF (R-L)
Stanton might be re-invigorated by coming home. It’s scary, but I would think about it… however, Bellinger still lurks in the gigglyweeds.
Tyler Anderson
This one is simple: The Dodgers were willing to give him $19+ Million to serve as a one-year “bridge” to the youngsters but were unwilling to give him an additional $20 mil on top of that for two more years. Buehler will be back in 2024, and then the Dodgers have Urias, May, Gonsolin, Grove, Pepiot, Stone, Knack, Miller, and Sheehan. The next wave includes Nastrini, Huebeck, and Bruns. There are more than a couple of “special arms” in there. “Goodbye, Tyler; thank you for your service. It was wonderful to see your career blossom. I don’t blame You for taking the deal, and I wish you well.” Tyler was a class act!
Offseason Possibilities
Pitching – The Dodgers will be connected to Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and others, but if the Dodgers sign a Free Agent Pitcher, it very well could be Andrew Heaney. He still has untapped potential. They have already articulated that they need to promote young pitchers already within the system. Those young pitchers include Gavin Stone, Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Mike Grove, Victor Gonzalez (not so young anymore), Andre Jackson, and Dustin May. My favorite is Gavin Stone. “He is too small to pitch as a starter.” Yep, just like Pedro!
The Closer will not be Craig Kimbrel or Kenley Jansen (thank God). There are several pitchers who have an opportunity:
- Daniel Hudson
- Evan Phillips
- Alex Vesia
- Yency Almonte
The Dodgers will not seek another closer candidate, but they do have several other arms who should play up next year:
- Phil Bickford
- Justin Bruihl
- Caleb Ferguson
- Victor Gonzalez
- Michael Grove
- Bazooka Graterol
- Andre Jackson
- Jake Reed (watch this guy – he is ready to enter into his own as a specialist)
Chris Martin will surely be a pitcher AF tries to re-sign, but the price may be too high. Tommy Kahnle is also possible, but someone may throw him big bux. And then, the 800-pound gorilla is Trevor Bauer. We have discussed him ad nauseum. It’s going to all boil down to how corrupt the arbitrator is.
Position Players – Miguel Vargas is ready for the Show. James Outman probably is, too, along with Mike Busch. Andy Pages is not far off, and he is maturing. They say he needs to improve his concentration and focus. He has the skill set. A Wild Card who could move up quickly is Jonny DeLuca. You will soon see why AF protected him.
Insofar as traded and free-agent signings, I think it might be pretty quiet for the Dodgers. Let aF evaluate what he has, and maybe he will make some moves at the All-Star Break. I think that is how he should proceed this year as he tries to integrate the youngsters.
I do like Xander Bogaerts a lot. He should cost a lot less than Trea Turner. Check this out:
Discussion (15)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Excellent article, Mark!
Dodgers had many setbacks and underperforming players and still managed to win 111 games.
The Freeman, Anderson, Heaney, Martin, and Thompson signings were great moves by Friedman last year.
But I often focus on the bad moves he made last year in getting Kimbrel, Gallo, and Alberto.
The current roster has several big holes in it, and many appear to be due to conscious decisions by AF to let Anderson, Turner, JT, and Bellinger go.
Although I am frustrated by the current roster, there is a lot of time left and Friedman has a great track record in building a good roster. Patience is in order.
MLNTR reporting that Judge is meeting tomorrow with the Giants.
Good stuff, Mark. Always enjoy your columns.
I’ve read a lot about what the Dodgers need to do to win a World Series. Honestly, I wouldn’t focus on winning the series. It’s based on luck, teams getting hot at the right moment or you have a team that is head and shoulders above every other team. The Dodgers were good, really good, but they were not better than other teams in the playoffs.
Maybe if Walker Buehler hadn’t got hurt or Cody Bellinger had a big playoff bat. But that didn’t happen.
What I hope that the Dodgers do in 2023 is put together another team that can win a hundred games plus. They shouldn’t try to build a World Series winner, whatever that would look like.
Putting themselves in the best position to win games is the appropriate move. That will give them the best edge possible.
I might want Trea Turner back, but the Dodgers will do what they do. Fun player to actually watch.
So I honestly don’t care what they do. Move Gavin Lux to short, sign Xander or even go with the cheat. Makes no difference.
I’m sure whatever they do or don’t do will make no matter. The Dodgers will win a lot of games.
Andrew Friedman is just smarter than pretty much everybody else. Second guess him, if you wish.
I’ve pretty much always said how much I dislike too many divisions and wildcard teams in the playoffs. What a monster MLB created that’s not likely to ever be killed. They’re more likely to bring more teams into playoffs and make the post season games for PPV only. I’ve almost had enough with baseball because of the idiots who run the commission. If I wasn’t able to pirate view the games I’d already be done with baseball. Vote me into the commissioner’s seat and you’ll get 148 games to decide what teams of 4 divisions of 32 teams make it to the playoffs. Talk about a fantasy.
Boras said that Bellinger has already received several multi-year offers. What intrigued me was he said that they were looking to sign a one-year deal. He is banking on his client having a comeback season and getting a bigger payday next year. I am leery of Japanese stars who sign with major league teams. There have been a few exceptions for sure, but also some huge busts. Suzuki, who was the Cubs big offseason get, played in only 111 games. He hit .262 with 14 homers. Not exactly a great year. I have seen a lot of chatter about Ohtani. Great, but the Angels are not going to trade him to the Dodgers. If he makes it to free agency, he is going to break the bank.
The reality is, with the way the postseason is now set up, its means very very little what you do from April-September as now just about every good teams make the playoffs and some even average teams.
Come October the Dodgers are going to be there again…hopefully it works out different than the last 2 years….
Stone looks like a guy ready to make the jump.
He’s succeeded at every level, and he’s remarkably consistent and competitive. Miller has more raw talent, but Stone shows polish and perhaps the mental makeup to succeed. As I’ve mentioned before, something about his highlights had me thinking of Zack Greinke.
If a proven ace is truly on the market, like Corbin Burns or ???, I hope AF isn’t too conservative.
Seattle got Castillo with a bold offer of three of their prime prospects. A package of Castillo + Drury seemed like a good fit for the Dodgers, especially since both Muncy and JT were struggling.
Did AF explore this? Is his judgment clouded by the way he stole Scherzer and Trea from the Nationals?
With Trea now an FA–and Rios and JT and Belli too!–the Dodgers figure to be for a big makeover.
The nucleus is solid–Betts, Freeman, Smith–and we can hope Muncy will continue to return to form. We expect Lux back, but at what position? So much is in flux.
With both Outman and Trayce on the roster, I don’t see a great need for a “true” CF. Both guys are fast, athletic career outfielders. Trayce’s reverse splits make a platoon problematic. Both might be “fourth outfielder” types, but both have earned a lot of that “runway” the brass likes to talk about.
Somebody here mentioned Haniger as an option for LF. Certainly deserves consideration. But he is another high strikeout guy–and we already have too many of those.
What we clearly don’t have is a guy like Yoshida, a guy with a career on-base % over .400–a guy who walks twice for every time he strikes out.
Pairing him with Mookie at the top of lineup could prove more dynamic than Mookie-Trea.
So many here puffed out their chests about the abundance of wealth we supposed had in the minor leagues. Guys that were untouchable as pieces to obtain players at trade deadlines. Where are they now? Most of the prospects are pitchers it seems to me. That’s a good thing but some fans will lobby for trades for veterans. Why would we be interested in Verlander or deGrom when we have a stable of young arms?
Where are all these position players, especially outfielders, that we were developing? Our 2022 top 100 prospects were Cartaya, who’s a year away or so, Miller, Vargas, Busch, Pepiot, Stone and Pages. Without TT, I’d like to see Amaya get a shot. Rios was cut loose. Too many here love our farm system but refuse to want to commit to these guys actually playing. It turns my mind into tapioca when I hear names like Joc Peterson and Puig still kicked around as returning to the Dodgers. Kike and Duggie too. Maybe Koufax has some innings in his arm. He looks pretty fit.
I have seen too many teams sink for refusing to move. Better to make tough calls a year early with aging veterans versus a year too late. For my money, it’s time to move on from CT3, Bellinger, JT, and even Thompson. I think he too may have found lightening in a bottle for a time last year, especially against right handed pitching, but I’m not confident at all with him as an everyday whiff machine.
I see a RHB needed and signing TT if not stupid money, but let’s make use of that home grown talent we supposedly were developing.
Not so sure about Thompson/ Outman because Thompson has a history of hitting better vs RHP than LHP. This year .308 vs .174. Lifetime its .228 vs .210.
I think Bogarts makes a lot of sense. Betts will be deciding factor if wanted.
There is one thing I know for certain, I suck at predictions. Mark had an excellent analysis of the season. Winning the next 11 games to win the Championship is not easy, and my main concern was the lack of distance by the starters. 5 innings from the starting staff in the playoffs is simply not enough. It puts a ton of pressure on the bullpen. I am not going to sit here and knock Roberts again since we all saw what happened. But two of the most controversial decisions he has made in the postseason came because he pulled his starter early with the team winning. Then the pen gave up the lead and the game was lost. deGrom is not the answer, and neither is Verlander.
I think they are making a conscious effort to move on and bring the kids in to do the job. Thompson/Outman might be the CF platoon and between them there certainly is the capability of having a 30-homer season. I think they both bring very good defense to the position, but not elite gold glove type defense. I also think they are very comfortable with Lux moving to SS. But we are going to have to wait a while to see what the 40-man looks like going into spring training. Next big thing is the winter meetings.
Jon Hayman;
Biggest name hear available in trade so far is Marlins pitcher Pablo Lopez. Fish need hitters! Came close to dealing him to Yankees at deadline in a Gleyber Torres deal.
The Dodgers had an incredible 111 win season last year while facing a ton of adversity, which they seem to face every year. Why is it that we’re always in the lead for Days on IL?
The same people that are glad Belli is gone have come up with Outman and Thompson as the replacement in CF. Apparently, Trace can be good after being bad for most of his career due to injury, but Belli can’t be good after being bad for a couple of years due to injury? That makes perfect sense. I agree that Belli isn’t worth $18M based on the last 2.5 seasons. But, he was worth a lot more than they were paying him for his two stellar seasons. He will be good again. What are the chances he’s better than the Outman/Thompson platoon?
There’s no way I sign Verlander, going into his age 40 season to a multi-year deal.
DeGrom has to have the worst medical reports of any pitcher in baseball. He sat out almost a full year with “Flexor Tendon” – Where have I heard that one before? Then he came back and went on the IL with “Shoulder Soreness” – Where have I heard that one before? He’ll be 35 next season. No thanks, I’ll pass.
I would absolutely take Stanton and $60M from the Yankees. His Luxury tax salary is just $22M per year before the Yankees kick in $60M! Stanton for $10M per year for 5 years? Yes, please! I doubt that’s going to happen.
Mark, I’m with you. How do you build a team that will be good in the playoffs? So I guess the answer is not to win too many games in the regular season so the team coasts to much at the end. But also not to have to fight it out and get used up the last week or two of the regular season. I think the answer is to ask the players in advance if they will be able to hit in October. And find out in June which players will be hurt late in the season. And of course have more players like Kike who can ruin someones career with excess celebrations. So what’s the problem??
I like Bogaerts too. As you said probably be cheaper than the other 3 free agent ss and can play 3b later in his career. Would give us that RH bat in the middle of the lineup too.
I would also consider Drury for 3b. And deGrom to be the ace starter along with Julio.
DeGrom, Julio, Clayton, Gonsolin and May would be a devastating rotation with all the kids to provide depth.
Lineup;
Betts, rf
Lux, 2b
Freddie, 1b
Bogaerts, ss
Muncy, Dh
Smith, c
Drury, 3b
Outman, cf
Vargas, lf
Lineup would be well balanced with RH and LH. Outman and Vargas at the bottom would have less pressure to grow into their roles. Good speed too with Betts, Lux, Outman and Vargas.
If Bauer remains suspended the Dodgers should have enough money to make that work and maybe stay just a tad over the luxury cap.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!