This year will be Julio Urias’ 8th season as a Dodger, during which time he has made almost $30 Million Dollars. His next contract will be for ten years and be around $400 Million. He will make more in one season than he has in his whole career. When he hits free agency, he will be just 27 years old! That put him at the intersection of entering his prime years. There is no doubt that some team will give him a mega-deal in that $400 Million Dollar range. At first blush, Steve Cohen’s Mets might exceed that, but I think that if you drive down the freeway to San Diego, you could see Julio’s future home.
It seems likely that Manny Machado will opt out of his contract, freeing up $32 Million Dollars of the likely $40 Million it will take to sign him. Of course, San Diego has a lot going on next off-season, including the Manny opt-out, the Free Agency of Yu Darvish ($18 Million comes off the books), and the pending Free Agency of Juan Soto in 2025. Plus, the Padres have to deal with the free agency of Pomerantz, Snell and Hader. Barring a bad season in 2024 and/or 2025, Soto will command a $400 Million Dollar deal as well. Tatis, Jr. is also owed $333 Million. The Padres have a lot going on.
In 2024, the Dodgers have these contracts coming off the books:
- Clayton Kershaw – $20 Million (will he want to play one more year? – We don’t know)
- Julio Urias – $14.25 Million
- Noah Syndergaard – $13 Million
- JD Martinez – $10 Million (Is the plan to have Mike Busch take over for JD in 2024?)
- Walker Buehler – $8.25 Million
- Blake Treinen – $8.0 Million with a $1.5 Million buyout, but he has an “unknown option” thought by some to be less than $3 Million
Depending upon a lot of other variables, the Dodgers have $75 Million or more coming off the books in 2024… if Clayton Retires. They could spend $40 Million or less (if Julio really wants to be a Dodger for life) for Julio Urias. This remains to be seen. Walker Buehler may get an incentive-laden deal, but again, I could see San Diego or the Mets offering him a guaranteed deal. This is tricky business!
This could be the Dodger’s rotation in 2024:
- Urias
- May
- Gonsolin
- Miller
- Stone
- Pepiot
I remember back to when the majority of the fans wanted to include Urias in a trade for Cole Hamels or Chris Sale or another “flavor-of-the-week. The Dodgers are certainly glad they kept him, through thick and thin, and his shoulder surgery. Since the 2020 COVID-19 Season, he has pitched 361 innings with a 2.56 ERA and a 0.989 WHIP. He has certainly seized the title of ACE, and the Dodgers have certainly not overworked him.
Andrew Friedman does not give out big long-term contracts to pitchers, but this might be his first… due to Julios’ age. Of course, some will say, “Why not just extend him?” I’ll ask you a better question: “Why would he do that?” Number one: Scott Boras is his agent, so it’s not happening, but the only way the Dodgers could re-sign him is with a significant overpay. Now, it is possible that the Dodgers could re-sign Will Smith soon, as he will be a free agent after 2026. They could extend him now, and his agent is not Boras. I look for to that to happen later this year. Of course, the possibility exists that they may let him walk and take the draft pick, which is part of the reason staying under the LUX TAX is important, plus you lose international signing bonus money.
The Damage Caused by Going over the CBT
Lots of fans believe Andrew Friedman when he says the Dodgers don’t have to get below the luxury tax threshold THIS season. They point to the fact that it’s not that much money. 2023 would put the Dodgers as a third-time offender, and while the penalty would be a few million, the pain would really be felt NEXT season if they go over it. If the Dodgers could somehow get under the CBT threshold this year and reset it now, next year, the threshold will rise to $237 Million, but let’s say that Clayton wants to play another year (and has a great year in 2023). If the Dodgers decide to sign Ohtani and Urias at an additional $90 Million, they will likely be $60 Million over the CBT. That penalty is 50% of the overage, which is $30 Million plus a 60% surcharge – That would be a $48 Million Dollar Penalty, plus clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back ten places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back ten places instead.
If they reset the CBT and get under it in 2023, AND stay below $60 Million over the CBT next season (Team salary of $296 Million), that would only be an $11 Million dollar penalty; plus, they do not lose any draft position. You may think $37 million is chump change, but that is a huge amount, plus the loss of draft position. If possible, Friedman will try and get under the CBT this year! There are Millions of reasons why. It’s possible Will Smith could get traded next off-season if he doesn’t get extended, as the Dodgers have a “generational player” arriving by the name of Diego Cartaya.
Could 2024 look like this:
- Lux SS
- Betts RF
- Freeman/Ohtani DH
- Rushing 1B
- Cartaya C
- Muncy 3B
- Vargas 2B
- Busch/Pages LF
- Outman CF
The Dodgers would mix and match at 1B/DH and LF. Freeman would DH and play 1B. Rushing would catch to rest Cartaya and play 1B when Freeman DHs. This would really piss off fans who want to see a set lineup.
Rotation:
- Urias
- Ohtani
- May
- Miller
- Stone
It’s thought-provoking, but let me leave you with this thought: Maybe it’s best that the Dodgers only win 96 games and have to play until the end of the season this year so as not to lose focus for the playoffs!
PRESS RELEASE FROM THE DODGERS
DODGERS ANNOUNCE 2023 MINOR LEAGUE COACHING STAFFS
LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers announced their Minor League coaching staffs for the 2023 season with Travis Barbary (Oklahoma City), Scott Hennessey (Tulsa), Daniel Nava (Great Lakes), John Shoemaker (Rancho Cucamonga), Jair Fernandez (Arizona Complex League Dodgers), Dunior Zerpa and Cordell Hipolito (Dominican Summer League Dodgers) all leading their respective squads.
Six of the seven managers return to their affiliates in 2023, while Daniel Nava will take over for Great Lakes in his first season as the Loons’ skipper. Nava, 39, played parts of seven seasons in the Major Leagues with Boston (2010-15), Tampa Bay (2015), Los Angeles – AL (2016), Kansas City (2016) and Philadephia (2017), hitting a combined .266 with 29 homers and 206 RBI. He played in a career-best 134 games in 2013 for the Red Sox, setting career-highs in doubles (29), homers (12), RBI (66) and OPS (.831). The Northern California native was originally signed by the Boston Red Sox as a non-drafted free agent in 2007 from the independent Golden Baseball League Chico Outlaws.
Last season, the Dodger minor league affiliates recorded a combined .545 winning percentage (393-328) with six of the seven squads finishing the regular season with a winning record, including playoff berths by the Tulsa Drillers, Great Lakes Loons and the Dominican Summer League Dodgers. It is the seventh straight season that the Dodger affiliates have posted a winning mark and are a combined 2,986-2,528 (.542) since their last losing season in 2013. The Dodgers were the only Major League organization to have six affiliates post a winning record last season, while recording the fourth best mark by an organization, trailing only the Tampa Bay Rays (.576), Colorado Rockies (.549) and New York Yankees (.548).
In 2022, the Dodgers had four Major League debuts, including James Outman, Miguel Vargas, Michael Grove and Ryan Pepiot, who were all signed or drafted by Los Angeles. The Dodgers qualified rookie pitchers went a combined 4-0 with a 3.51 ERA (19 ER/65.2 IP) and 66 strikeouts, while the rookie hitters hit a combined .233 (14-for-60) with three doubles, two homers and 11 RBI.
The rest of the Dodger coaching staff is below:
Oklahoma City Dodgers (AAA)
Manager- Travis Barbary
Hitting coach- Manny Burriss
Pitching coach- Doug Mathis
Pitching coach- Justin DeFratus
Bench coach- Chris Gutierrez
Athletic trainer – Chelsea Willette
Athletic trainer – Griffin Boyte
Performance coach- Paul Fournier
Video/development associate- Harrison Schnurbusch
Tulsa Drillers (AA)
Manager- Scott Hennessey
Hitting coach- Lou Iannotti
Pitching coach- Ryan Dennick
Pitching coach- Durin O’Linger
Bench coach- Juan Apodaca
Athletic trainer – Jesse Guffey
Performance coach- Noah Huff
Video/development associate- Mikael Mogues
Great Lakes Loons (A+)
Manager- Daniel Nava
Hitting coach- O’Koyea Dickson
Pitching coach- David Anderson
Pitching coach- Richard De Los Santos
Bench coach- Elian Herrera
Athletic trainer – Ikuo Kato
Performance coach- Ethan Quarles
Video/development associate- Joe Manno
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (A)
Manager- John Shoemaker
Hitting coach- Dylan Nasiatka
Pitching coach- Ramon Troncoso
Pitching coach- Sean Coyne
Bench coach/hitting coach- Ronny Paulino
Athletic trainer – Akinori Maeda
Performance coach- Taylor Miller
Video/development associate- Ben Castiglia
Arizona Complex League Dodgers (Rookie)
Manager- Jair Fernandez
Hitting coach- Danny Dorn
Hitting coach- Blake Gailen
Hitting coach- Johermyn Chavez
Pitching coach- Andres Urbina
Pitching coach- Luis Vasquez
Bench coach- Johan Garcia
Coach/complex coordinator- Fumi Ishibashi
Coach/baseball tech associate- Zoe Hicks
Athletic trainer- Alfredo Casillas
Assistant athletic trainer- Zoe Hicks
Performance coach- Jose Gutierrez
Performance associate- Irma Maldonado
Performance operations assistant- Marlon Cairo
Video/development associate- Jade Gortarez
Video/development associate- Joe Nadler
Dominican Summer League Dodgers (Rookie)
Manager- Cordell Hipolito
Manager- Dunior Zerpa
Hitting coach- Sergio Mendez
Hitting coach- Juan Diaz
Coach- Leury Bonilla
Latin America defensive coordinator- Pedro Mega
Sr. Advisor, Campo Las Palmas- Antonio Bautista
Pitching coach- Raidel Chacon
Pitching coach- Hector Rodriguez
Pitching coach- Eduardo Dominguez
Pitching coach- Roberto Giron
Latin America medical coordinator- Jorge Gonzalez
Athletic Trainer- Jorge Rodriguez
Physiotherapist- Walter LaChapel
Performance coach- Rafa Sepulveda
Performance coach- George Drullard
Performance coach- Walter Lindo
Nutrition coordinator- Julissa Gomez
Video/development associate- Jerry Chavarria
Video/development associate- James Keller
Discussion (19)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Many of the names on the Dodger list of coaches and managers may be unfamiliar to you, but most were (at one time) minor league players who may or may not have even been “fringe” major league players. Some retired quite early – some in their mid-to-late twenties or early 30’s.
The ones to watch are:
Travis Barbary – he is thought of highly
Scott Hennessy
Austin Chubb – Bear found him for me.
John Shoemaker – Just because he has been doing this forever and Bleeds Dodger Blue.
Daniel Nava – He hit a grand slam in his first major league AB, and this is his first year in the Dodger Organization. He is 40 and is highly respected. He’s new, but watch him.
I would hate to lose Julio. Not just from a value standpoint but from a pure Dodger standpoint. Hershiser wearing a Giants jersey for a season made me sick to my stomach. And he hasn’t been a Dodger for quite a few years. Thinking of Julio in Padres yellow would be worse.
I know Borass always pushes his players to go 100% for the money. But I would sure like to see more players show loyalty to the cities that have embraced them. I have no doubt Ohtani will take less money to play where he wants to play. If that’s in LA, we will sign him. AF might get creative with front loaded contracts with an option. Yet, you’re all probably right. Julio will probably walk for the max $$$. But a boy can dream.
This is one of the reasons I no longer watch the NBA. Star players bounce around to 3-4 teams in their careers. The idea of Magic in anything but purple and gold or Bird in anything but green and white was unthinkable. As a kid, when I thought of Boston I thought of the Tea Party and Larry Legend. I loved to hate him. Watched every game he played against the Lakers for a decade. It’s sad that loyalty (players and owners) is becoming less and less a part of sports.
Julio in yellow? (dry heave)
What happened to Austin Chubb? I want to know!!!
Urias is a pitcher and pitchers break. He’s not a good risk for a long term deal.
Secondarily, the Dodgers under Friedman have only signed one player for more than 6 years or $162MM (Betts). There’s no way Boras leaves that much money on the table.
Wave goodbye to Julio.
Around the bend can’t get here soon enough
In case you can’t figure it out, here is the Press Release:
DODGERS ANNOUNCE 2023 MINOR LEAGUE COACHING STAFFS
LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers announced their Minor League coaching staffs for the 2023 season with Travis Barbary (Oklahoma City), Scott Hennessey (Tulsa), Daniel Nava (Great Lakes), John Shoemaker (Rancho Cucamonga), Jair Fernandez (Arizona Complex League Dodgers), Dunior Zerpa and Cordell Hipolito (Dominican Summer League Dodgers) all leading their respective squads.
Six of the seven managers return to their affiliates in 2023, while Daniel Nava will take over for Great Lakes in his first season as the Loons’ skipper. Nava, 39, played parts of seven seasons in the Major Leagues with Boston (2010-15), Tampa Bay (2015), Los Angeles – AL (2016), Kansas City (2016) and Philadephia (2017), hitting a combined .266 with 29 homers and 206 RBI. He played in a career-best 134 games in 2013 for the Red Sox, setting career-highs in doubles (29), homers (12), RBI (66) and OPS (.831). The Northern California native was originally signed by the Boston Red Sox as a non-drafted free agent in 2007 from the independent Golden Baseball League Chico Outlaws.
Last season, the Dodger minor league affiliates recorded a combined .545 winning percentage (393-328) with six of the seven squads finishing the regular season with a winning record, including playoff berths by the Tulsa Drillers, Great Lakes Loons and the Dominican Summer League Dodgers. It is the seventh straight season that the Dodger affiliates have posted a winning mark and are a combined 2,986-2,528 (.542) since their last losing season in 2013. The Dodgers were the only Major League organization to have six affiliates post a winning record last season, while recording the fourth best mark by an organization, trailing only the Tampa Bay Rays (.576), Colorado Rockies (.549) and New York Yankees (.548).
In 2022, the Dodgers had four Major League debuts, including James Outman, Miguel Vargas, Michael Grove and Ryan Pepiot, who were all signed or drafted by Los Angeles. The Dodgers qualified rookie pitchers went a combined 4-0 with a 3.51 ERA (19 ER/65.2 IP) and 66 strikeouts, while the rookie hitters hit a combined .233 (14-for-60) with three doubles, two homers and 11 RBI.
The rest of the Dodger coaching staff is below:
Oklahoma City Dodgers (AAA)
Manager- Travis Barbary
Hitting coach- Manny Burriss
Pitching coach- Doug Mathis
Pitching coach- Justin DeFratus
Bench coach- Chris Gutierrez
Athletic trainer – Chelsea Willette
Athletic trainer – Griffin Boyte
Performance coach- Paul Fournier
Video/development associate- Harrison Schnurbusch
Tulsa Drillers (AA)
Manager- Scott Hennessey
Hitting coach- Lou Iannotti
Pitching coach- Ryan Dennick
Pitching coach- Durin O’Linger
Bench coach- Juan Apodaca
Athletic trainer – Jesse Guffey
Performance coach- Noah Huff
Video/development associate- Mikael Mogues
Great Lakes Loons (A+)
Manager- Daniel Nava
Hitting coach- O’Koyea Dickson
Pitching coach- David Anderson
Pitching coach- Richard De Los Santos
Bench coach- Elian Herrera
Athletic trainer – Ikuo Kato
Performance coach- Ethan Quarles
Video/development associate- Joe Manno
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (A)
Manager- John Shoemaker
Hitting coach- Dylan Nasiatka
Pitching coach- Ramon Troncoso
Pitching coach- Sean Coyne
Bench coach/hitting coach- Ronny Paulino
Athletic trainer – Akinori Maeda
Performance coach- Taylor Miller
Video/development associate- Ben Castiglia
Arizona Complex League Dodgers (Rookie)
Manager- Jair Fernandez
Hitting coach- Danny Dorn
Hitting coach- Blake Gailen
Hitting coach- Johermyn Chavez
Pitching coach- Andres Urbina
Pitching coach- Luis Vasquez
Bench coach- Johan Garcia
Coach/complex coordinator- Fumi Ishibashi
Coach/baseball tech associate- Zoe Hicks
Athletic trainer- Alfredo Casillas
Assistant athletic trainer- Zoe Hicks
Performance coach- Jose Gutierrez
Performance associate- Irma Maldonado
Performance operations assistant- Marlon Cairo
Video/development associate- Jade Gortarez
Video/development associate- Joe Nadler
Dominican Summer League Dodgers (Rookie)
Manager- Cordell Hipolito
Manager- Dunior Zerpa
Hitting coach- Sergio Mendez
Hitting coach- Juan Diaz
Coach- Leury Bonilla
Latin America defensive coordinator- Pedro Mega
Sr. Advisor, Campo Las Palmas- Antonio Bautista
Pitching coach- Raidel Chacon
Pitching coach- Hector Rodriguez
Pitching coach- Eduardo Dominguez
Pitching coach- Roberto Giron
Latin America medical coordinator- Jorge Gonzalez
Athletic Trainer- Jorge Rodriguez
Physiotherapist- Walter LaChapel
Performance coach- Rafa Sepulveda
Performance coach- George Drullard
Performance coach- Walter Lindo
Nutrition coordinator- Julissa Gomez
Video/development associate- Jerry Chavarria
Video/development associate- James Keller
The Update above is the Minor League Coaching Staffs.
Where is Austin Chubb?
I think Julio is gone. Like Mark, I believe he moves down the I-5 to San Diego. Makes the most sense. Large Hispanic population, a lot of money to spend, and Scott Boras will drive up the price as much as he can. I do not think Julio’s loyalty to the Dodgers is going to have anything to do with it. Dodgers have NEVER given a pitcher more than a 4-year deal since AF took over. I doubt that changes even for Urias. I do not think he gets anything close to a 10-year deal, for a pitcher that is kind of nuts. But I can see some team going all in for 6 or 7 simply because of his age and it will be front loaded. I think the money is better spent giving Smith an extension and bringing in a couple of solid vets if the kids do not produce. If the Lux experiment fails, they are going to need an experienced SS. Rosario of Cleveland makes a lot of sense. But next year is a long way off. And this one is just around the bend.
UPDATE ABOVE:
As a team, I think that most of the TOP teams could only handle one or two contracts with over $30 million.
The Dodgers could handle 2 or 3, with Mookie being 1. Freddie makes $27 Mil so I do not count him. They could take on Urias and Ohtani.
What impact will Miller and Stone have on Urias’ future contract if they settle in at the top of the Dodger rotation this year?
The Dodgers let Seager, Trea, and Scherzer walk instead of trading them at the trading deadline or overpay them on a free agent offer. Kershaw could have earned more if he signed with Texas as a free agent. He wanted to be a Dodger. Seager and Trea both seemed to want to go elsewhere. The Dodgers have taken great care of Urias and I think both Urias and Boras agree with that statement. Does he, like Kershaw, want to be a Dodger? If so, I can see him agreeing to an extension that is realistic. If he rejects such an offer, I think the Dodgers will offer him a QO and not compete to sign him as a free agent. I don’t think they would trade him before the deadline but I hope they do if he doesn’t extend.
What is realistic? Something less than SD or LAA or Mets will offer.
Yes, he will be a Dodger for life after getting the last out in 2 World Series championships.
They wont let him get away especially to that team down south….
Anthony Castrovince answers questions about the new rules.
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-new-rules-for-2023-faq?partnerId=zh-20230207-822603-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20230207-822603-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=iPFvUtox5DXmI%2FjSfQU9Y8odZHqemqrQ7Xs%2Fwv9SLJUhPXhBEziRfx%2B6XXBDgUNv&bt_ts=1675778539708
Did you know that a team has to have a minimum of 2 infielders on each side of the bag (yes, of course you did), but did you know they can pull in one of their outfielders and play with 5 infielders?
I wonder which manager will decide to insult which hitter by being the first to do that?
Badger, give me the overs and unders for how many times 5 infielders are used this year in all of MLB.
I’m putting the number at 2.5 times (all teams, for the entire season).
Julio will be signed to a very long term hefty contract. Something like 7yr/40mil with a 20mil bonus so $300mil., being the face of the Dodgers pitching staff for years to come.
Whoa. What happened to Will Smith?
I’m sure the Dodgers want to sign Julio Urias. Probably at the top of the list. Incredibly important. LA has a large Hispanic fan base. But $400 million?
I’m guessing it won’t be Urias and Shohei Ohtani. Dodgers have a lot of good young pitchers. How many big contracts can teams afford? Even the New York Mets. Spending money doesn’t buy championships.
All these crazy contracts. Baseball is a mess. It use to be somewhat inexpensive to take a family to a game. But taking my daughter and the three grandkids to a game this summer will cost around a grand. Baseball needs to remain affordable. Good luck with that.
MLB tried to ruin the game with analytics. Now lots of big contracts. More and more, higher and higher. Notice the winter meetings talk is all about contracts anymore. Trades are far more interesting. But the money gets the real play.
I’m tired of hearing about the CBT. Even with low draft choices and a less international money, the Dodgers still have the best farm system and last year they won 111 games. Yes, getting below is advantageous, but it’s not like the Dodgers are hurting for money. So this is really just about dollars and the Dodgers have never hesitated to spend to win. They keep raising prices (tickets, food, souvenirs etc.), plus they have that massive TV deal, so revenues continue to grow.
But, I’d be wary of handing out $400 million contracts. For all the Dodgers success, there is no question Andrew Friedman takes a somewhat cautious approach. The big contracts often burden other teams. Sometimes they just go bad. Too many years, declining skills.
But, again, Mark, you write something that is interesting to explore.
Will Julio Urias be a Dodger Past This Season?
Nope.
Well, maybe.
I think he will stay in the state
Totally disagree that Julio will wind up getting 40 mil per year over 10 years. He might get the 10 years from some team but not at 40 million.
I think his deal will be closer to 300 million than 400 and that’s only if he’s top 3 or 4 in the Cy Young voting this year. Otherwise it could be under 300.
Here’s the best line of the week:
“Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell, and I wonder if anyone has investigated whether that spy balloon belonged to the Astros.
If the young players step up, it will be a joy to watch. It’s a different kind of joy to watch a young player break out than to watch an acquired free agent do what is expected. If Miguel Vargas, James Outman and others become stars this season, the excitement will be palpable. They could also fail to live up to expectations, making the disappointment all the more real.
We don’t know what is going to happen. And that is what is exciting, and that is what makes me look forward to this season more than any season in recent memory.
“
Another big contract coming off the books is Trevor Bauer. That’s alot of mula!