Why Having the #1 Farm System is a Big Deal

Several Dodgers fans have seemingly mocked Andrew Friedman, who has been the architect of the most amazing ten-year run in baseball history. They saw the San Diego Padres trade for Mason Miller, JP Sears (since sent to the minors), Ryan O’Hearn, and Ramon Laureano. Miller and Laureano have made an impact with Ramon batting .333 with a 1.000 OPS. Ryan O’Hearn is struggling mightily (.185 BA), and JP Sears is pitching at AAA. Mason Miller has been good (not great) with a 3.38 ERA. By the way, Mason Miller has a 3.71 ERA this year.

The Padres traded the #3 MLB Prospect at the time, Leo DeVries, along with their #6 Prospect, #12 Prospect, and an unranked prospect for Miller. To get O’Hearn and Laureano, the Padres gave up six more prospects, including their #5 Prospect. The trade for O’Hearn and Laureano cost only one good prospect, namely the #5 ranked Boston Bateman, but both players are Free Agents next year. With San Diego’s ownership lawsuits, it seems unlikely either player will resign with SD.

The question is: “Is it really a big deal to give up the #3-ranked prospect in all of baseball?” The short answer is yes. Here’s why: According to ChatGPT, the odds of a #20 Top Overall Prospect (like Josue DePaula) becoming a superstar are 8 to 12%, but the odds of a #3 Overall Prospect becoming a superstar are 40 to 50%. The Dodgers never had a chance to get Mason Miller once San Diego offered DeVries. DeVries has a 3X to 5X greater likelihood of being a superstar than DePaula. Miller would have been nice, but it was never going to happen.

The Dodgers do not have a prospect of DeVries’ caliber, but they do have a plethora of prospects who could become outstanding players… maybe one or two could evolve into a superstar, namely:

• Josue DePaula
• Zyhir Hope
• Eduardo Quintero
• Mike Sirota
• Jackson Ferris
• Emil Morales
• James Tibbs III
• Ching-Hsien Ko
• Kellon Lindsey
• Joendry Vargus

There is no player here who has the opportunity to be a superstar like Leo DeVries, who has a 40 to 50% chance. The above players have an 8 to 12% chance. One or two may become superstars, but it is not likely. That’s why you have to hoard multiple prospects. You do not know who will defy the odds. There is a logical reason for this: This is not the first time the Padres have gutted the farm. They did it for Juan Soto and sent about 5,000 great players to the Nats. Since 2017, the Dodgers have won 760 games for a .636 winning percentage, while the Padres, who always try to trade their top prospects for a chance to win THIS YEAR, have won 494 games for a .479 winning percentage. The Dodgers have two World Championships in that period and would have three except for the cheating Astericks.

So, whenever you criticize Andrew Friedman and use the San Diego Padres as an example of what the Dodgers should have done, I say STFU! Move on… unless you are a dumbass. San Diego’s methods are of the dope-fiend variety. The Dodgers reclaimed first place last night with a 3-2 win over the Padres. The Dodgers are still the class of the NL right about now, and the future is bright as they keep the farm strong and intact. The best is yet to come for this team.

Let me put it this way: Would you rather be a fan of a team with two World Series wins and a .636 winning percentage or a team that has never won a World Series and has a .479 winning percentage? Bright shiny objects do not lead to sustainable success. By the way, Andrew Friedman learned this the hard way: On a couple of occasions, he needed some relief pitchers like Josh Fields and Tony Watson, so he traded a couple of unremarkable (at the time) prospects for them. Yordan Alvarez and Oneil Cruz wold sure look good in Dodger Blue right about now.

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