Who Should Bat Where?
This question seems to be on everyone’s mind lately, especially when it come to where Shohei Ohtani or Mookie Betts bats. People have different opinions and while “figures may not lie” how you interpret them may also be subjective. Yesterday, I wrote this: “ As a Leadoff Hitter…
This question seems to be on everyone’s mind lately, especially when it come to where Shohei Ohtani or Mookie Betts bats. People have different opinions and while “figures may not lie” how you interpret them may also be subjective. Yesterday, I wrote this:
“As a Leadoff Hitter, this year, Shohei Ohtani is hitting .324 with a .400 OB% and a 1.148 OPS. Late and Close, he is OPS’ing 1.205. Yes, he is in a slump and it happens to the best of them. To say he is not a leadoff hitter is just plain silly!“
—Mark Timmons
Well, then M.Norris (aka/Bear) wrote this:
“Well Mark might think I am silly, and I respect his opinion, but Shohei Ohtani should not be a leadoff hitter. Not on a team that has Mookie Betts. Ohtani is a .265 hitter in the leadoff spot, Betts, .296. Ohtani’s OBP in the one spot, .368, Betts, ,376. Ohtani strikes out almost a third of the time leading off, Betts, less than 20. Betts walks more frequently, he has stolen 141 bases as a leadoff hitter, and 228 of his career homers have come as a leadoff man. Ohtani’s slug and OPS might be a little better, but he is all slug. In the leadoff spot this year, he is hitting .259. His BA, .314, OBP .387 and K rate are all better in the 2-hole. Sorry but the stats do not support that theory. I’ll take Mookie in the leadoff spot over Shohei any day. Betts hits for a higher BA in the 2 hole, but his OPS drops under .900. Ohtani’s OPS in the 2 hole, 1.008. His BA in the 2 hole, .287, is 22 points higher than leading off in his career. And I do not believe that those comparison stats are silly at all. On the offensively poor Angels it might make sense, but not on the Dodgers.“
–M.Norris
No, I do not think you are silly, but we used two different measurements. My stats came from MLB.com and I was relying on this:
I am not sure now what that stat means… maybe it is just leading off an inning, but if you go to www.baseball-reference.com, you will see that Bear’s numbers are accurate. So, that means that Shohei Ohtani should not lead off…. right? Maybe… maybe not! Everything is not always black or white and clear cut. Consider this: Shohei Ohtani is mired in a horrible slump. In the last 25 games he is hitting .200 (albeit with a .826 OPS). He is hitting .172 in August. After hitting .316 the first half of the season, he is hitting. .204 the second half. All of that is in the leadoff spot, but is that the cause or effect or even an issue. Maybe it is just a slump and it would have happened no matter where he hit. We don’t know…
Of course, he has hit leadoff the whole second half, so one has to consider that most of his leadoff stats were accumulated when he went to leadoff after Mookie Betts was injured. Baseball is a game of streaks and runs, ebbs and valleys, hot and cold streaks and in the end, I do not think it makes a lot of difference where a batter hits… in theory!
Mookie Betts hit .208 in June with a .702 OPS – But nobody was calling to move him off the leadoff spot! Last year, Mookie hit .455 in August and followed it up with .244 in September and October! I really don’t care who leads off but if you start with a LH batter, you can alternate L-R all through the lineup, which is not a huge deal…. but it is a deal.
If I were to make up a batting order, I would use OPS as the method of placing a player in a spot. The highest OPS leads off and then you rank them in order. If that were the case, here is the batting order:
- Ohtani .990
- Betts .898
- Freeman .879
- T. Hernandez .825
- Muncy .798
- Smith .761
- Rojas .726
- Kiermaier .717
- Lux .683
Of course, Lux is rising fast. I think the lineup stays the way it is… at least to the end of August. Shohei needs to break out of this slump. I also like him at leadoff because of his 37 stolen bases in 41 attempts. If Mookie leads off then Shohei and Freddie are two LH bats in a row. Certain pitchers are more effective against LHP, so I like the L-R Balance, but that is just me. By the way, there is no “right” answer. Ohtani just need to get that OPS over 1.100.
To put OPS in perspective, if a player has an OPS over 1.000, that simply means that (on average) he starts out every at-bat on 1B. Not a bad way to start!
Rants & Raves
- No one has claimed Amed Rosario as yet. Seems strange that a .300 hitter is without a job. Maybe what I told you was true?
- Ben Casparius will allegedly be activated for todays game. He is not on the 40-man so someone has to come off or go on the 60-day IL. Frasso?
- Tony Gonsolin is a year removed from Tommy John, but there is no timetable for his return. We will see him in March or April, which is the Dodgers new “timetable” for TJ returns: 18 Months. Let’s not forget how good he once was. For his career, he is 34-11 with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP and in 2022 he was 16-1 with a 2.04 ERA. He comes back next year along with Dustin May and Shohei Ohtani.
- Let’s see what Clayton has in the tank. Casparius is a great contract to CK and will likely be the first man out of the bullpen. Who goes down?
- Nick Anderson struck out 4 in 2 IP last night for OKC.
- Max Muncy was 2-3 with a 3-Run HR (.286 BA/.851 OPS). Tommy Edman walked 3 times (.294 BA/.939 OPS) – Here they come!
- Blake Treinen struck out the side on 12 pitches at Tulsa last night!
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Discussion (54)
Disagree, not disagreeable
X-rays on Freeman’s right middle finger came back negative Saturday, and he’s considered day-to-day, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
San Diego has the tie breaker with the Dodgers, by winning the season series. That means as of today,Sunday August 18th the Division lead is down to 1(ONE).
Frasso has to remain in the minors on the injury list so his service time does not start. River Ryan can be moved from the 15 day IL to the 60 day IL when Casparius is put on the 40 man roster,but to be activated on the 26 man roster, someone has to be DFA like Honeywell or Banda or someone has to be hit the IL list.
Leadoff isn’t the problem! it’s the lack of hitting overall! the other night , everyone in the lineup had a hit. last night 4 guys had hits. Ohthani is in a terrible “hitting “ slump as is Will. Teo needed a day off to reset. They are leaving far too many men on base! I don’t think there’s much doubt ohtani is swinging for the fences every at bat. Kiki’s hot streak has gone away. Even Lux was swinging out of his shoes last night! Now Muncy and Edman are coming! that should help. But it won’t cure all their hitting woes. Haven’t seen Heyward! Is it possible his time is over? Kevin K. should absolutely stay in my opinion. Dodgers should be fine, but guys have to hit , move runners, quit swinging for the fences!!