Michael Busch is a Minor League Player for the Los Angeles Dodgers who just finished his second full season, even though he was actually drafted in 2019 and had all of 24 ABs in the Minor Leagues because he was hit by a pitch and missed the rest of the season with broken bones. Of course, in COVID-2020, Busch did not play, so 2021 was his actual “first season,” and he spent that season at AA Tulsa, where he hit 20 HR, with 27 doubles in 409 ABs. He hit .267 with a .386 OB% while OPS’ing .870.
Last year was really his second professional season. In that season, he hit 32 HR with 38 doubles while hitting .274 with a .365 OB% and a .881 OPS. That’s real progress! He does strike out a lot as he hits lots of fly balls, but his power is prodigious, and he is not a really big guy. He is 6′ 1″ and 210 pounds, and as you can see in his videos (below), he is rather svelte, but his opposite field power is a thing, and I think he will become even stronger in the next year or so and hit even more HR.
Comparisons to Max Muncy are not really fair. I have heard that he is “stocky” like Max, but watch the videos below, and you will see he is not the least bit “stocky.” He looks lean to me, and while he is not a “burner,” his speed is average. He is also surprisingly athletic. While I do not think he will be a Gold Glove second-baseman, his deceptive athleticism will enable him to stay at 2B (IMHO). In his scouting report, it says this:
“His speed and arm are still fringy, but he has impressed scouts inside and outside of the organization by his transformation into an adequate defender at second, and he also has seen some action in left field in 2022.”
— Dodgers Top 30 Prospects
Mike Busch needed all of 2022 in the Minors to polish his skills, but I believe he will get a shot at making the Dodgers right out of Spring Training! The thing is – he will have to earn it… if he gets one. He could play in LF or 2B, but I would not be afraid to see him at 2B. Busch is also a better pure hitter than Max Muncy, but he could certainly be compared to worse players.
By way of comparison, Max Muncy hit 12 HR and 20 doubles in 379 ABs at OKC in 2017 at age 26. He hit .309 with a .414 OB% and .905 OPS. He was older than Busch, but the results were similar… except that Busch hit a lot more Big Flies. Let me say this: Michael Busch is a better hitter than Max Muncy and has more power (and that is saying a lot).
I suspect that he may end up in LF rather than 2B this year, just due to roster makeup, but I do think his time is now. Listen to his interview on Dodger Poke Report.
Here is where you can see his prodigious power to both fields and that he is not “stocky.” This guy is “built.” Enjoy the power:
Will Busch make the team in 2023? I have no clue. That will be up to him. Remember, this is baseball – who really knows? James Outman looked like Babe Ruth last year. He could fall on his face this Spring (I hope not, but you never know. I think 2023 will be an amazing Spring Training. I can hardly wait.
Of course, Andrew Friedman could always have something up his sleeve, but he may play it by the book this year as there are many reasons to Let the Kids Play! Of course, he could make a Blockbuster Trade as well. Andrew Friedman is a Wild Card, and whatever he does is wildly unpredictable.
Mike Busch could play 2B or LF. Max Muncy could play 3B or 2B, Gavin Lux could play 2B, SS, or CF. There are so many options, and right about now, all the paysites are coming out with statistical predictions, which are about as accurate as a monkey throwing darts at Stocks in the Wall Street Journal. I buy all of those books every year… just to save money on toilet paper. Save your money.
Discussion (17)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I think comps to Muncy are not unreasonable. Maybe if you don’t just compare physiques, cuz that’s really irrelevant anyway. One’s stocky? Who cares? That is a pet peeve of mine, and I’ll often read scouting reports that say things like, “The way X walks behind the mound between pitches reminds me of Y.” What does that have to do with anything?
Busch is similar to Muncy in that both are left handers, both have pop, and both are somewhat limited defensively to 2nd base, DH, 1st base. Muncy can play 3rd, which Busch cannot, and Busch could possibly play LF, which Muncy cannot. Busch has a great swing – short, compact, powerful and can hit to all fields. Muncy is pull first. Muncy has a much better eye and one of his best attributes is the ability to draw walks to generate runs. Busch demonstrated a great walk rate in AA that fell off when he was promoted to AAA. He needs to get his BB% up and his K% down. If he can, he could be a replacement for Muncy if Max has another down year in 23 and the Dodgers decide to buy out his contract in 2024. If he can’t he’s a trade chip.
The JDM signing blocked him from getting a shot at 2nd base, which is his most “natural” position, to put it rather loosely. I think the only way he makes the team is if he can learn LF and can platoon with CT3. I think most indications are that Vargas will get a long runway to take over 3rd, which puts Muncy back at 2nd. Still, I think introducing three unproven rookies is pushing it, and including Busch to go along with Vargas and Outman is maybe a bridge too far, especially since he’s a defensive liability.
I think Lux gets a bad rap as a SS, but he also ain’t Ozzie Smith. Even if they hit, an infield of Vargas, Lux, Muncy (Busch) and Freddie does not inspire confidence, and defense does matter.
Just read an article on Dodgernation. Ron Cey went on there and had some harsh but fair words to say about the Dodgers surprise loss to the Padres in the NLDS. And most of what he said echoed things that have been noted here and on other sites since it ended. He cited the fact that the Dodgers basically had not played a game of importance for almost two months. The 5-day layoff was more than they needed. They were relying on too many Mendoza line hitters at the bottom of the order. Too much pressure on the top 4 in the lineup to produce runs early. And they simply did not execute in the clutch when they needed to. After game one, they were totally outplayed and outpitched by the Padres. We all saw that. I trust the Penguins judgement and analysis. He has been there and done that. I still believe they need a new offensive approach.
Got my Dodger jacket with the World Series winner patches and my new LA cap today. Nice Christmas present from me to me. LOL. Tommy LaStella DFA’d by the Giants today.
Agree. Impossible to project.
That said, I would also be looking at a trend of consistency and improvement.
Not a hitter, but I think Gavin Stone’s consistent excellence in the minors bodes well. He might not be an ace on the next level, but he should be solid.
Question for prospect gurus: How will a .267 minor league batting average translate in the majors?
Red Sox signed Corey Kluber.
If you want to attach any significance whatsoever to Vargas hitting .170 in his first 47 ABs, then realize that Mike Trout was 8 for 56 in his first MLB ABs. That’s a .142 BA! What did that mean? NOT A DAMN THING! What is the point? The only point that you can make is that based on the criteria you just used, Miguel Vargas will be better than Mike Trout!
You can’t cherry-pick your stats.
Just for fun, I took a dive into Baseball Reference to assess the 2022 performances of our three favorite ML-ready bats: Vargas, Outman and Busch.
Vargas played in OKC and LA, while Busch and Outman played at Tulsa before their promotion to OKC. For Vargas and Outman, I added the ML stats to their minor performances.
All three look pretty darn good. All deserve a real shot.
While Outman strikes out a lot more than we’d like–159 Ks against 72 walks–he had the clear edge in overall production: a .298 BA, 32 HRs, 33 doubles, 7 triples (two cycles, remember?). He scored 107 runs and knocked in 109. In the minors his OBP was .393 and his OPS was .978–and absurd during his four games in the majors.
Something else I notice about Outman: remarkable improvement from his college stats, and he was better in OKC than he was in Tulsa. The upward trajectory is encouraging. At age 25, he fits the late-bloomer description.
Busch’s power/production numbers are strikingly similar to Outman’s. He also strikes out more than we’d like, with 167 Ks against 74 walks. His BA was .274 , and he hit 32 HRs and 38 doubles. He had 118 runs and 108 RBIs. His OBP was .365 and OPS was .881. (A minor concern: Busch’s performance slipped a bit from Tulsa to OKC, while Outman’s improved. )
Vargas, of course, is our great ROY hope–the young bat-to-ball guy who has been getting the hype and seems all but guaranteed to have a spot in the starting lineup.
He struck 89 times against 73 walks. While he batted .304 at OKC, his scuffling in the majors dropped his overall BA to .291. He finished with 18 HRs, 33 doubles, 4 triples. Totaled 104 runs and 90 RBIs. His OPS in OKC was .915–higher than Busch, lower than Outman–but only .455 in the majors.
While it’s based on a small sample, I’m still struck by how Vargas’s plate discipline seemed to disappear against major-league pitching. He walked only twice in 50 PAs, while striking out 13 times. While Vargas’s OBP for OKC was .404 (!), it was only .200 in LA (ugh).
But let’s assume Vargas overcomes his struggles and all 3 of these guys have a great spring and prove competent in the field:
Betts RF
Lux SS
Freeman 1B
JD Martinez DH
Muncy 2B
Smith C
Outman CF
Vargas 3B
Busch LF
Bench of Barnes, Taylor, Thompson and… Heyward?
This could be fun.
But yeah, I’d be concerned about the defense.
Great introduction to Michael Busch.
Sounds like a hard working guy with a great attitude.
Still young enough to improve as a defender, and probably needs more time in AAA to improve as a hitter as well.
Busch hit 266/343/823 with 21 HR in OKC last year.
For comparison, Vargas is 2 years younger and hit 304/404/915 and 17 HR in OKC last year.
Busch is a very good prospect and has great chance to contribute in MLB. But right now Vargas is MLB ready.
Really enjoyed this article
Busch is a flat-out stud. He’s the kind of player that delivers when it counts most. His defensive deficiencies are greatly exaggerated especially considering he has a career fielding percentage of 971 in just 215 games at second base, a position he didn’t play in college.
The thing that Busch does best is put runs on the board. In just 142 games last season, he managed to score 118 runs and drive in 108. The dude can flat-out hit! Big opposite field power is a gift that few have. He and Andy Pages have plenty.
It’s going to be a fun couple of years watching these kids get added to the roster. Especially when they’ve done so much winning together while they worked their way up the minor leagues. It kinda reminds me of “The Infield” and all the winning they did while coming up together in the minors.
Where Busch plays depends on where Dodgers want Vargas to play. If Vargas is at third then Muncy is at second and Busch competes for LF spot. If Vargas is in LF then Busch has a shot at 2nd with Muncy at 3rd. Anyway it plays out we’re not gonna be a great fielding team.
Michael just looks and sounds like my kind of player. Love his humility and the way he emphasizes the team, on and off the field. More excited about this year and the raw possibilities. Looks to be a great mix of veterans and youngsters. “It’s time for Dodger baseball!” I’m missing Vin …
I like Busch and I believe he’ll see action in ’23. I agree, no one should compare Busch to Max Muncy. Two different players. His defensive skills are improving. The bat plays up.
Nice writeup.
I think the Dodgers did well to sign JDM, but a full-time DH makes it tough for Busch.
We know the Dodger brass love Vargas and will give him as much of that “runway” that they gave Lux. But right now it seems that could take an injury to Vargas or Muncy–or JDM or Freddie–for Busch to get a meaningful shot.
My guess is that most ML second basemen (Busch’s most likely position) are smaller than 6-1, 210. Whether Busch is svelte or stocky doesn’t matter nearly as much as the quality of his play.
That’s one of the great things about baseball.
The Dodgers’ top power hitter is former second baseman listed at about 5-9, 180. (Prediction: In about five years Mookie will win a gold glove at 2B. )
Great piece mark. I really like Busch, and wouldn’t mind seeing him at 2nd if for sure lux is our shortstop. I still long for a center fielder because I’m not sold on Thompson for 162, and outman may or may not open season on big league roster. I really feel strong that JD will have a monster year, muncy will.rebound, will smith will continue to be an all mlb 1st team receiver, Mookie will have an outstanding year, Freddie gets even better and Vargas competes for ROY! Bauer could push this team over the top! Hope everyone has a wonderful new year
I sincerely hope Busch makes the team out of spring training. Eovaldi signing a two-year deal with the Rangers.