When Is the Right Time To Promote Prospects

I am not just asking for MiLB to MLB, but for every ladder of the organization.  It is widely suggested that once a player reaches and succeeds at AA, he is deemed near MLB ready.  That does not mean they are deemed future MLB stars or even regulars.

There have been a handful of MLB players who have made the jump directly from AA to MLB.  Without doing the research, Atlanta’s Michael Harris II, Cardinals Jordan Walker, Dodgers Clayton Kershaw and Emmet Sheehan.  And there are countless others who have made the jump from AAA with limited AAA ABs, and multiple pitchers making that same jump with limited starts and IP.

After dominating in AA in 2023, 23 year old Emmet Sheehan was promoted to LAD to face SF Giants on June 16, 2023.  He no-hit the Giants for 6.0 innings before being lifted.  He had another QS in his next start, but went 5.0 innings in a blowout win vs Colorado in his 3^rd start.  His next 3 starts were not good, but came back for another good start and then a 4.0 IP save before being optioned to AAA.  Overall, Sheehan had 156.2 MiLB IP before the MLB Call.

After being optioned to AAA, he pitched in 3 games, 1 start, and pitched 9.2 innings before being recalled to LAD to finish the season.  He appeared in the 1^st game of the NLDS relieving Clayton Kershaw in the 1^st inning with a runner on 2^nd.  He got the two batters he faced to end the inning.

The next inning did not go well for Sheehan.  But his 2^nd and 3^rd full innings were well pitched, especially his 3^rd full inning.

He was out all of 2024 and much of 2025 after TJ surgery.  He came back and pitched very well last year, and while 2026 has had mixed results, Sheehan has proven he is a MLB pitcher.  Back of the rotation pitcher for a contending team, but a MLB starting pitcher nonetheless.

Then there is Bobby Miller who was given an even more aggressive promotion journey.  In 2021, his first year of professional pitching outside of the Alternate Camp due to Covid, he was assigned to A+ Great Lakes.  On September 8, 2021, he was on the fast track to AA where he started 3 games. 

After 91.0 IP at AA in 2022, Miller was promoted to AAA at 23 years old, where he pitched 21.1 innings in 4 starts.  In 2023, Miller started back at AAA where he started another 4 games and 14.1 IP before getting promoted to LAD where he finished a very successful rookie season. 

Unfortunately 2023 did not end well for Miller has he was hit hard in his 1.2 IP start against Arizona in the NLDS. 

In 2024, his start against Philadelphia seemingly put Miller as one of the top rotation pitchers for LAD.  He allowed 2 hits in 6.0 scoreless innings, with 1 BB and 11 K.  He was back.  Then two not so good starts and he was placed on the 15-day IL with shoulder inflammation.

After 2 rehab starts at Rancho and 2 at OKC the Dodgers activated Miller on June 19.  After 2 poor starts, Miller was optioned to AAA.  He has never pitched well since that Philadelphia start. 

On July 27, Miller was placed fulltime in the bullpen where he seemingly found his way.  He allowed a run in his July 27 appearance, but then settled down where he did not allow an earned run his next 8 appearances (1 unearned run).

After that run, Miller hit a wall where he allowed 9 runs (all earned) in his next 4 games (5.2 IP).

Miller has not pitched at all in 2026 due to another shoulder injury.  Miller had 183 MiLB IP before getting the Call.

River Ryan was promoted to MLB after 176.1 total MiLB IP (23.1 AAA).

Gavin Stone was a bit more experienced with 124 AAA IP.

All four of Sheehan, Miller, Ryan, and Stone have had their careers stalled due to significant injuries.  Were they rushed?  What is an appropriate number of MiLB IP before getting called to MLB?  AAA innings?  Stone and Ryan did not make it out of their rookie season before succumbing to season ending injuries.  Sheehan and Miller got through their rookie season, but Sheehan could not start his sophomore season and Miller did not pitch well in his sophomore season due to shoulder issues.  Ryan and Sheehan had TJ surgery, Stone significant shoulder surgeries, and Miller constant shoulder injuries, but no surgery…yet.

Should River Ryan be recalled by LAD or should he continue to build up in OKC?

Patrick Copen has had mixed results in May after being Texas League Pitcher of the Month for April.  How much more time should he stay in AA?

Jackson Ferris is back with OKC, when will he be considered MLB ready?

I think some teams may have OKC’s 23 year old RHSP Christian Romero on their radar.  He will be blocked by a good number of pitchers in the LAD organization, but he has pitched decently in the PCL and very good on occasions. 

The Dodgers have 4 AA outfielders who are performing well at Tulsa. 3 of the 4 are consensus top 100 players (Josue De Paula, Zyhir Hope, and Mike Sirota).  Kendall George has been having a great start, but is now on the IL with an injured knee. 

The team has another top 100 player in OF Eduardo Quintero at Great Lakes.  Another top LAD OF prospect but not in the top 100 (yet) is Chuck Davalan, also at Great Lakes.  Ching-Hsien Ko and Jaron Elkins at Ontario.  All three of these players are blocked by the elite OF ahead of them.

But the closest to MLB is James Tibbs III at OKC.  In 211 AB (251 PA), Tibbs III is slashing .322/.426/.659/1.085.

• HR – 17, #1 in PCL
• Doubles – 16, #2 (Tied)
• XBH – 35, #1 (+6 over #2)
• Hits – 68, #5 (-3 behind teammate Ryan Fitzgerald #1)
• BA – #10
• OBP – #7
• SLG – #1
• OPS – #1

Tibbs has now hit 6 HRs in the last 6 games and 4 consecutive games.  He could have had his contract purchased, but the Dodgers decided to go with Ryan Ward when Teo went down. 

Some like to say that PCL numbers are suspect.  Maybe, but when you are putting up numbers like JTIII they cannot be discounted simply because of the PCL.  Otherwise, every PCL hitter is suspect. 

JTIII is playing primarily DH these days with Zach Ehrhard and Jack Suwinski playing well at OKC, there is not a lot of room for a promotion of one of the AA OF.

But how long should De Paula, Hope, and Sirota be retained in Tulsa?  When is the right time for them to get promoted to AAA?  When should Davalan and Quintero get promoted to AA?  Ko and Elkins to A+?

Josue De Paula, one of the youngest players in AA is slashing .323/.424/.545/.969:

• Hits – 61, #1
• Runs – 44, #2
• Doubles – 18, #1 (+5 over #2)
• HR – 8, #12
• XBH – 26, #2
• BA – #2 (behind Kendall George)
• OBP – #3
• SLG – #4
• OPS – #4

He really does not have much less to prove in AA, but who does he displace at AAA?

Mike Sirota has been brilliant since the Dodgers traded for him.  Again, no place to go?  Hope is having a very good year.  I would guess that JDP and Sirota would get the call before Hope, but who knows.

June is often when a lot of performance promotions are made.  There are multiple Dodgers prospects who might warrant such a promotion if they were blocked. 

Others who should be considered (IMO).

AA (Tulsa) –  

• RHRP Nick Robertson – 15 games, 21.1 IP, 0 runs, 4 hits, 5 BB, 25 K, ERA 0.00, WHIP .042.

• RHRP Cam Day – 19 games, 24.0 IP, 14 hits, 10 BB, 19 K, 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

• RHSP Patrick Copen and LHSP Adam Serwinowski are probably better suited for AA for the time.  Potential summer promotion.

A+ (Great Lakes) –

• 3B/2B Logan Wagner – Currently on the 7 Day IL, has not played since May 7.  For 2026 – .307/.352/.588/.940.

• Eduardo Quintero and Chuck Davalan are possible promotions once some of the OF road blocks start to open up.

• Watch for RHSP Christian Zazueta and LHRP Zach Root to get promoted this summer

• SS Emil Morales has already been promoted to A+.

A (Ontario) –

• 3B Chase Harlan – .331/.457/.548/1.005 – With Logan Wagner on the IL, I am not sure why Harlan has not yet been promoted.  Nico Perez and Eduardo Guerrero are good players and have not played themselves off the roster, but Harlan may be special. 

• C Anson Aroz – .313/.452/.463/.915 – With only 1 catcher at A+, Aroz should be strongly considered for a promotion.

• 2B Kellon Lindsey – .429/.478/.667/1.145 – Started the year injured, but hit well enough in Rancho pre injury last year, and is hitting better at Ontario this year.  Is there a spot for him? He needs to stay healthy.

• Ching-Hsien Ko and Jaron Elkins – See comment on Quintero and Davalan above.

• 2B Javier Herrera and C Francisco Espinoza have already been promoted to Ontario.

Dodgers look to build depth for MLB which is why AAA has a lot of AAAA players. They may or may not be blocking players with potentially higher pedigree down below.

Rookie League Reports

Top LAD IFA signings for 2026:

• Rubel Arias, OF, Dominican Republic ($1 million) #46
• Ezequiel Melbourne, SS, Dominican Republic ($750,000) #67
• Ariel Reynoso, SS, Dominican Republic #86
• Jose Victorino, SS, Dominican Republic, #93
• Tom Apfelbaum, LHP, Germany
• Miguel Herrera, LHP, Venezuela
• Jose Requena, OF, Venezuela – Traded to Arizona for Jake McCarthy
• Luis Ricart, RHP, Dominican Republic

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DSL Dodgers Bautista 9 – Dodgers Red Sox Blue 6

DSL Dodgers Bautista had three of the top IFA signees on their roster: OF Rubel Arias, SS Ezequiel Melbourne, SS Ariel Reynoso.

CF Rubel Arias – 1^st year in DSL, 17 years old, 2-6, 2 runs, 1 RBI

LF Helvin Mendoza – 1^st year in DSL, 17 years old, 2-4, 1 walk, 1 run

2B Ariel Reynoso – 1^st year in DSL, 17 years old, 1-2, 3 walks, 3 runs

SS Ezequiel Melbourne – 1^st year in DSL, 17 years old, 1-4, 1 walk, 2 runs, 1 RBI, double (1)

C Haram Hernandez – 1^st year in DSL, 17 years old, 2-5, 1 run, 2 RBI

3B Adrian Del Cid – 1^st year in DSL, 17 years old, 2-3, 2 walks

DH Fran-Jean Haseth – 1^st year in DSL, 17 years old, 2-5, 3 RBI

RHP Enmanuel De La Rosa – 2nd year in DSL, 23 years old – 2.1 IP, 0 runs, 2 hits 1 BB, 2 K

RHP Alexander Pichardo – 1^st year in DSL, 18 years old – 2.1 IP, 0 runs, 1 hit, 1 BB, 3 K, 1^st save

Box Score

DSL Dodgers Mega 18 – DSL Padres Gold 9

2B Moises Acacio -2^nd year in DSL 18 years old – 3-6, 1 BB, 3 runs, 3 RBI, 3-run HR (1)

3B Hendry Arvelo – 2^nd year in DSL, 19 years old – 2-4, 3 BB, 3 runs

SS Jose Victorino – 1^st year in DSL, 17 years old – 2-6, 1 BB, 2 runs, 1 RBI

LF Erny Orellana – 3^rd year in DSL, 19 years old – 2-5, 1 BB, 1 run, 1 RBI, triple (1)

5 pitchers 9 runs (8 earned), 8 hits, 8 BB, 10 K  No one pitcher stood out.

Box Score

ACL Brewers 7 – ACL Dodgers 6

ACL Dodgers put up 5 in the bottom of the 8^th to take the lead.  Three walks and a DP allowed Brewers to tie it up in the 9^th. Brewers pushed one across in the 10^th and the Dodgers did not.

• 2B Daniel Mielcarek – 2-4, 1 run
• LF Abel Lorenzo – 2-4, 1 run
• 3B Moises Bolivar – 2-4, 1 run 3 RBI, Double (3) HR (4)

• 1B Cameron Decker on rehab assignment – double (2)
• OF Jhon Gil – HR (1)

Box Score