Wheelin and Dealin
Earlier in the week, there was a little difference in opinion with respect to the Billy McKinney acquisition. I continue to read how porous LAD’s defense is, and with a gimpy Mookie Betts who may need late-inning defensive help to get him off his hip, a slowing AJ Pollock, questionable defense of Matt Beaty, and the need for CT3 to spend more time in the infield, AF went out and
Earlier in the week, there was a little difference in opinion with respect to the Billy McKinney acquisition. I continue to read how porous LAD’s defense is, and with a gimpy Mookie Betts who may need late-inning defensive help to get him off his hip, a slowing AJ Pollock, questionable defense of Matt Beaty, and the need for CT3 to spend more time in the infield, AF went out and got a decent defensive OF to fill a need THIS YEAR. Carlos Rincon was never going to be anything but a DH, and the Dodgers have multiple MiLB players to fill that role, so AF goes out and spends a lesser AA version of Reks and Raley with minimal defensive skills, to get defensive help. To me it is a win. But apparently, I am in the minority because I do consider defense as critical in winning a championship. I do not know how much of Carlos Rincon any of you have seen, but since I watch a lot of Tulsa games, I have seen a lot of him. He is a DH, and I hope he makes it. He is a good kid. But he is maybe a top 40-50 prospect. Is it too much to spend a 40-50 prospect for help in 2021? I will certainly continue to follow him, as I have Oneil Cruz. In 2017, the Dodgers traded a much higher-rated prospect in Oneil Cruz to acquire LHRP Tony Watson. Watson was not able to get the Dodgers past the Cheaters and he is now struggling with the LAA. OTOH, Cruz is a top 100 prospect with Pittsburgh. Worth the trade? IMO, YES. If the Dodgers find another OF, they can always DFA McKinney.
The Dodgers have three consensus Top 100 prospects: Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, and Michael Busch. Baseball America has LAD with two other top 100 prospects: Diego Cartaya and Bobby Miller. It is not like AF has not traded top 100 prospects before (Yusniel Diaz, Willie Calhoun, Grant Holmes, Jharel Cotton, Frankie Montas). Holmes, Cotton and Montas went together in one trade for Rich Hill and Josh Reddick at the 2016 deadline. Willie Calhoun, AJ Alexy, and Brendon Davis were traded to Texas for Yu Darvish in 2017. Yusniel Diaz and 4 others were traded to Baltimore for Manny Machado at the 2018 deadline. So, AF has previously traded highly rated prospects at the deadline for supposed game-changers, none of which worked out. He may try again.
What will AF do in 2021? Nobody has a clue other than AF and his FO staff. I do not think any GM or President of Baseball Operations has tighter control over rumors than AF. Plus, there are several teams who are still considered contenders for 2021, and they are not going to trade away players who can help them get to the top. As more than a couple of teams have shown, you only need to get to the playoffs to have a chance to win the WS. IMO the sun is setting on Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Chicago; however, apparently only the Cubs realize their 2021 fate. With a little more than a week from the deadline, I think the Reds and Cards will recognize their plight. But will they trade?
Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Washington all seem to believe that they can catch NYM for NL East, but the next week should indicate if those beliefs are dreams or reality. Jacob deGrom is on the IL with forearm tightness that is said to be “improving”. He is set to resume throwing this week. But deGrom has been anything but healthy this year with missed starts because of lat/side issues, flexor tendonitis, and shoulder soreness. NYM is going to need a healthy deGrom to hold off other NL East contenders. All four NL East contenders figure to go hunting in the next 9 days.
The NL schedule Gods did a great job of setting up for a fun next nine days (starting Thursday 07/22/21):
NYM – 3 with Toronto (H), and 5 with Atlanta (H) – Thru 07/29
Philadelphia – 4 with Atlanta (H) and 4 with Nats (H) – Thru 07/29
Atlanta – 4 with Philadelphia (A), and 5 with NYM (A) – Thru 07/29
Nats – 3 with Baltimore (A), and 4 with Philadelphia (A) – Thru 07/29
The AL is also a little muddled (albeit a little less) and will take most of the next nine days to determine buyers and sellers. In the AL East, Boston and Tampa Bay figure to battle to the end. While NYY and Toronto are struggling to stay with the top two, they are in contention for the 2nd Wild Card team, being only 4.0 games behind Oakland for that spot. In the AL Central, CWS is running away with it, but Cleveland is only 5.5 games behind Oakland. In the AL West, Houston and Oakland also figure to battle to the end. Amazingly, Seattle is only 3.5 games behind Oakland and are ahead of NYY, Toronto, and Cleveland for that 2nd WC. IMO Cleveland is not a realistic contender. They just do not have enough personnel to contend with NYY or Toronto or Seattle
AL schedules are also filled with some meaningful games thru 07/29.
Seattle – 4 with Oakland (H) and 3 with Houston (H)
Toronto – Red Sox 3 with NYM (A), and 4 with Red Sox (A)
NYY – Philadelphia 4 with Boston (A), and 3 with Tampa Bay (A)
I cannot see AF making a significant deal while so many teams are undecided as to where they are headed. They do not want to miss out on a potential game-changer. Traditionally, AF looks for sheer rentals (Hill, Reddick, Darvish, Machado), although he did acquire Alex Wood in 2015 with multiple years of control. Acquiring multiple years of control requires a better return of prospects, which AF is reluctant to do. There are no such things as untouchables, but for LAD, besides their five top 100 players, Miguel Vargas and Ryan Pepiot figure to be in that class, especially for rentals.
I am not like some here. I see holes in the Dodgers that need to be plugged if they are going to win another championship. Pitching, both starting and relief, need to be addressed. There has been a lot of talk regarding starting pitching. I think they need one SP who can go deeper in the game than Gonsolin or Price, and be a legit #4 in October. We have no idea how Clayton Kershaw will pitch in August or September, much less October. Right now the only two SP that can be counted on are Walker Buehler and Julio Urias. How well Urias holds up is also open for debate?
Max Scherzer (RHSP) is a rental and his name comes up a lot. Much will depend on the next nine days to even know if he will be available, but even if he is, it will be hard for me to see the Dodgers making that trade. Scherzer has a no-trade clause, and he is not going to waive it without getting something in return. Too much is unknown for 2022 and 2023 for the Dodgers right now. Regardless, Max has 7 years (2022-2028) of $15MM annual deferred contract payments that would be assumed by the trading team. Of course, Washington can pay that down quite a bit, but then the prospect asking price will escalate.
Luis Castillo (RHSP) is not going anywhere. Neither is German Marquez (RHSP) . Pitchers with year(s) of control beyond 2021 who may be available include:
Kyle Hendricks (RHSP) – $14MM for 2022 and 2023, with a $16MM team option in 2024. While I do like Hendricks, it is hard to be convinced that a pitcher who throws 87 can sustain his record for two-three more years. I think the Cubs will want more than AF is willing to spend.
Kyle Gibson (RHSP) – $7MM is owed for 2022, but with an AAV of closer to $9MM. He is certainly affordable and is having a good year. Will he in 2022? That thought process will go into the prospect cost calculation. I am not sure what he is doing in 2021 is sustainable in 2022. Considering that he has allowed 13 runs in 11.1 IP his last two outings, I am not sure it is sustainable in 2021.
Jose Berrios (RHSP) – Is currently earning $6.1MM in arbitration and is pitching decently in 2021, but not enough for third-year arbitration to skyrocket. His prospect capital will be exceedingly high, as Berrios has the potential for top of the rotation. He is an innings eater who has averaged 6.0 IP this year. For 2023.. He has a plus fastball, but his secondary pitch (curve is not). His third pitch (change) does have swing and miss capabilities.
Matthew Boyd (LHSP) – Is currently earning $6.5MM in arbitration and is pitching decently in 2021, but not enough for third-year arbitration to skyrocket, and not as well as Berrios. This is his first year with a sub 4.00 ERA. He is not an innings eater. I am not a fan, but he does seem to come up in deadline trade conversations every year.
Wade Miley (LHSP) – I include him in this group because he has a very favorable team option of $10MM for 2022. Miley is having a fine year, but he is 34. His prospect capital should not be onerous. He is averaging 6.0 IP per start, so he qualifies as an innings eater in today’s definition. Not a big strikeout pitcher, but does not walk a lot either. He is having his best SO/W ration since his rookie season in 2012. He has allowed 7 HRs while playing his home games in Cincinnati.
Sonny Gray (RHSP) – Gray is owed $10.2MM for 2022 with potential escalators, and a club option of $12MM. He is averaging a little over 5 IP, so he does not remotely go deep into games. He is a strike-out pitcher that LAD seems to like. He has 86 K in 66.2 IP. While his ERA is acceptable at 3.65, his 1.350 WHIP in 2021….not ideal at all. He was a fantastic postseason pitcher for Oakland in 2013, not so much for NYY in 2017. Question remains…Can he pitch under big city lights? He didn’t for NYY. If the LAD can get the Oakland Sonny Gray, they would be very happy.
But if AF is more true to prior year’s transactions, then he will be looking for a true rental. Of those, the ones that are being most widely discussed are Jon Gray (RHSP) , Tyler Anderson (LHSP), and Michael Pineda (RHSP). Of the three, I greatly prefer Jon Gray who is having a good year. He seemingly has a good year, followed by a not-so-good year, every other year. In 2021 it is a good year. Since he is a rental, who cares if it is sustainable after 2021. However, I am not sure that Colorado will deal with LAD without a Dodger overpay. I am not a fan, but I would not be at all surprised if the Dodgers dealt with Pittsburgh for Anderson. The prospect capital will be acceptable, but he really is a below-average pitcher, and I would be disappointed if AF dealt for him.
I like Wade Miley and Jose Berrios the most of the possible available starting pitchers. Berrios will be waaaaaayyyy too costly. Miley could be the 2021 version of Lance Lynn.
I recognize that some might include a pair of rentals…Adam Wainwright (RHSP) and Danny Duffy (LHSP). Wainwright turns 40 at the end of August and has had a couple of injury years (2015, 2017, and 2019). I have a very tough time envisioning him out of a Cardinals uni. I could be very wrong, but I do not see him leaving St. Louis. Duffy is another with a no-trade clause who has been with KC his entire career. He has expressed his desire to stay with KC for his career. He is from Goleta, CA, so he may accept a move to a West Coast team. However, he is currently on the IL for the 2nd time this season with a left flexor strain. I doubt that the Dodgers need another injured pitcher in their arsenal.
With respect to relievers, Craig Kimbrel (RHRP) is expensive ($$$ and prospects), but he could be the answer. After him, there are a number that AF will check into, but I have no clue as to who he is interested in.
Taylor Rogers (LHRP) was having a good year until July 11. I liken him to a former Twin, Ryan Pressly, who had a very good 2017, and a similar start to 2018 as Rogers has had before Ryan was dealt to Houston. He was basically unhittable in 2018 after the trade to Houston. Likewise, Rogers had a very good 2019 and is having an okay 2021 (I ignore 2020). To me, he is a LH version of Ryan Pressly. For Eric’s benefit, Pressly’s career OPS against was mediocre with Minnesota, but he turned it around with Houston. His career OPS vs LHH and RHH fits Eric’s algorithm. I think Rogers can do the same if he is moved. He is controlled thru 2022.
Richard Rodriguez (RHRP) looks to be available but could be expensive. Ben Cherington is a much better GM than Neal Huntington was. He will not be cheated.
The Cubs’ Andrew Chafin (LHRP) is having an excellent 2021 campaign (1.37 ERA, 0.737 WHIP, 37 K vs 10 BB in 39.1 IP). Chafin and Chicago have a 2022 mutual option ($5.25MM or $500K buyout). Another Cubs reliever that is having a good year is Keegan Thompson (RHRP). He is a 26-year-old rookie and is having a solid season. I doubt that Chicago makes him available.
If NYY decides to sell, I will go back to my old standby Chad Green (RHRP). Like Rogers, he is controlled thru 2022.
Ian Kennedy (RHRP) is putting up another solid year for Texas. He is a rental.
Now that Kendall Graveman (RHRP) has fully converted to relief, he is having a career year for Seattle and is a rental. However, Seattle is still in contention and may still become July 30.
If LAA decides to sell, they will look to move Raisel Iglesias (RHRP). He is a rental. So so ERA (3.40), but a solid WHIP (0.898). But where he looks to shine is 65 K vs. 8 BB in 42.1 IP. Since May 8: Iglesias has pitched 28.1 innings with a 2.23 ERA and a sub 1.000 WHIP. He has 52 K, 7 BB, and 18 hits allowed. Opponents are hitting .158/.207/.333/.540. He has 12 inherited runners and only 2 have scored. He has 15 saves against 1 blown save. He is in the final year of a 3 year $24.125MM contract. 2021 contract is $9.125MM.
If Atlanta decides to sell, look for Will Smith (LHRP) to be available. Smith is under contract thru 2022 and has a 2023 team option ($13MM or $1MM buyout). Expensive, but the prospect payoff should be acceptable to AF, but his contract may be too costly for LAD.
Would Baltimore look to possibly move Tanner Scott (LHRP)? More likely Paul Fry (LHRP).
Richard Bleier (LHRP) is having a good year for Miami with a 0.884 WHIP and 28K vs. 2 BB in 37.1 IP. Very impressive SO/W ratio of 14.0.
Relievers are very fickle, and outside of Craig Kimbrel, there is not a sure thing. But there are a handful of pitchers who could surprise. I know Mark and a couple of others like Garrett Cleavinger, but with his 1.59 WHIP he is not someone I want SD to see coming down the stretch. Same with Scott Alexander and Alex Vesia. Vesia may be good down the road, but this is a run for another championship, and I do not think he is ready for that pressure. He appears to be a keeper, but probably not before 2022. Jimmy Nelson and Corey Knebel will be added to the roster in the near future. Brusdar Graterol will need to wait until 2022 to make a lasting impression. He throws hard. Now he needs to learn how to pitch. That leaves two other unknowns coming down the stretch. How will Bickford and Sherfy respond to the pressure of a reigning WS champion looking to repeat?
KJ, Treinen, Kelly, Nelson, Knebel, and VGon look to be set. But KJ seems to be leaking back towards the inconsistent and unreliable 2018-2020 KJ. Can he turn it around????? 5 blown saves is not a good sign for a team looking to repeat. VGon may still have plantar fasciitis. If he truly had plantar fasciitis, it is painful and it does not just go away. It can take months to heal. Nelson has a lumbar strain. He had lumbar surgery last year. Will his back ever be able to take a heavy reliever workload? Lat injuries also have a tendency to linger. Will Knebel return as AF hopes? There are just too many questions in the LAD bullpen to be a WS caliber pen.
There is a lot to ponder over the next nine days. AF figures to make a move (or two or three). But we may have to wait until July 30 at 1:00 PM (PT) to find out. There are just too many undecided teams right now.
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Discussion (211)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Outstanding article, Jeff! I am glad you are with us again!
What’s next? I am hoping for Kimbrel… maybe Bryant, but the Dodgers would have to take Heyward too…
If you haven’t read this, you need to:
Open on www.latimes.comhttps://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2021-07-20/vin-scully-tries-to-make-the-most-of-each-while-mourning-the-loss-of-his-wifeWithout a healthy Mookie and Seager.the Dodgers chances to repeat are slim to none. AF should consider this fact at the trading deadline.
One small item from last night’s game that caught my ear during the broadcast. In last night’s game there was a whole new umpiring crew from the 3 previous games and low and behold a controversial ending transpires.
That is indeed a moving article. It really puts a game in perspective.
Bill Plaschke has taken some heat in the past but I really appreciate how he turns an emotional type phrase.
Jeff- this is another double grand slam and a perfect game all in one. Thanks. I hope AF is paying attention to this.
Twenty-year-old Jose Ramos made his debut with the Quakes yesterday and went 2-5 with a home run while leading off.
Eddys Leonard continues to rake. 2-3, 2 walks and his 13th home run.
Brandon Lewis hit another home run for the Loons. He is one of AC’s picks.
Once again you hit the nail on the head my friend. You just can’t make this stuff up. My choice for a closer type would be Iglesias. I have watched some Angel games and the guy throws strikes and does not fool around. I felt that they had a lot of the holes you spoke of during spring training. None of us could have imagined the havoc injuries would cause this team. But the fact is that the Giants have had injurie problems too. Mostly with position players though. Our starting pitching has been decimated with the injury to May, Kershaw’s injury and the Bauer debacle. They definitely need an innings eating starter, and although I have always liked Hamels, I doubt after 2 years dealing with injuries that he could be that. Duffy is injured, Scherzer is not only going to cost a lot, he will want a extension and I am not sure AF would be down with that. But I also feel they need a more experienced bench. Right now it is Pujols, McKinney and McKinstry and Barnes. And that is if Betts gets back in the saddle. If Betts, who would have been perfect Pinch hitting for Neuse after the meltdown, cannot hit, field, or run, what in the world is he doing still on the roster??? Get a healthy body, preferably someone with some pop and defensive skills in there and let Mookie heal on the IL. Having a player on the bench you cannot move, well that is counter productive. Also I have a question, when Max’s baby arrives, do they like have paternity leave for the players? I cannot remember if they do. Then they could at least call up a warm body to replace him.
Great summary. You mentioned Pineda but didn’t get into any detail. His numbers are quite pedestrian so I guess a mention was sufficient.
As for.McKinney. At worst he is a placeholder and defensive replacement. And yes defense wins championships.
The Dodgers are not going to win without getting healthy and mb not then. You cannot b elite with minor leaguers playing in the majors in a pennant race. We have blown plenty of games do to a lack of a Mlb roster. We could b up 4-5 games but we did not have the necessary depth. This is not a blame game just true.
The Dodgers philosophy is to play the long game with no urgency. Right about now how has that worked this year? It is just the arrogance that we’ll we will rest for the playoffs. The playoffs may never come. I think we have the players without a move but I don’t have any confidence that Robert’s can make the decisions necessary to get the dodgers over the hump.
I was struck by the reactions of 2 different situations. When smith hit the homer the dodgers were euphoric almost disbelief.. when mediocre Flores hit his it was like yeah we expected this. Farman has outmaneuverd the Dodgers and this Giant team expects to win. We have the biggest payroll in the majors and when it counted the most we didn’t have one minor league starter we could even try. So embarrassing for a world champion team.
I have heard all about Robert’s win percentage blah blah blah. He has had exceptional talent and we have been fundamentally weak in some areas. It is up to him and his staff to improve the fundamentals which apparently was the difference in last nights game. I must admit I didn’t watch because I saw a repeat coming. No way Jansen should have been in but I knew he would. Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is INSANITY!!!!!
The Dodgers will surely get something good and adequate, AF has done it before and they know how to do it but assuming they get a great starter and a great reliever if the team doesn’t improve their defense (to me defense is just as important as pitching and offense) and if they don’t avoid the SBs the Dodgers will come up short in October. When two similar forces face each other, the thread breaks because of the thinnest and the weakness of the team is its defense and the inability to avoid the SB which is also part of defense.
I’m not worried about this team about pitching or offense, the team is doing well and will be better, there is too much talent, the Dodgers will win the division by 4-5 games.
Jansen? nahhh it won’t even be the closer in October.
Sorry I forgot to mention in my post above, another outstanding article Jeff, you are truly an amazing writer and I always look forward to your lead articles. They are well thought out, articulate and are truly paid content worthy.
I’m at a loss this morning. I can no longer defend Roberts.
It’s a simple concept really. We talked about it yesterday. Phil gets it. Others get it. Why doesn’t Roberts? NEVER two nights in a row. And 33 pitches? Are you crazy?
Did he deliberately set Jansen up for failure? I find it inexcusable. Jansen is now damaged goods. He’s only good for the 7th and only in low leverage situations.
7 for 34. 1 for 7 WRISP. Buehler with a wasted gem. Sigh.
AFV is right. Mookie is the leader of this group. You can’t lead from the bench. Seager? Where tf is he?
Gut check time.
So Belinger can struggle night after night, but Kenley dips below All Star performance for 3 games and he’s finished.
With some help from Noisy and the 1st Base Umpire it woulda been a different story.
He had some much better movement and decent heat last night – I thought he was unlucky.
Strange how you’ve changed your tune on the basis of one evening’s work Mark?
How come Roberts gets a free pass?
Farhan is executive of the year. Kepler is manager of the year and Posey is MVP. It’s mind boggling what the Giants have done this year and they have had a ton of injuries as well. They just about swept us and their entire starting infield is injured and out! Their”depth” is crushing our “depth”!
Wow, there’s a lot to break down here. Thanks AC, for putting together a complete list of just about every possibility. It’s always a pleasure to read your thorough analysis.
WTF Mark? As I wake up with my eyes burning, it isn’t bad enough to rehash last night’s nightmare, you have to make me cry my posting that Vin Scully article. As a married man of close to 30 years, I can only imagine the pain that Vin must be feeling.
My disdain for Roberts is well documented. I don’t really give a crap about CT3’s misplay, the call shouldn’t have been overturned. It looked like a tie at the very least. I don’t give a crap about the check swing call either. At that point Kenley has already faced most of their lineup and any decent closer would have never got into that predicament in the first place. It was criminal to leave Jansen in for as long as he did. Nothing good could have come from it.
My biggest problem is to continue doing the same thing with Kenley even though he looks like a bull in a china shop and a deer in the headlights simultaneously. He doesn’t look like someone that the confidence necessary for the job and he doesn’t even look like a pitcher that has the control or command to pitch at the back end of a ballgame. Even when he was effective earlier in the year, the ball would seldom end up where the catcher’s glove was initially placed. You just knew it was a matter of time before he’d implode and he did so in a big way this past week, with a gascan in one hand and a road flare in the other.
This type of meltdown is what many of us feared even going into the season. I felt pretty good about having Kenley insurance with Knebel and Treinen on the roster and taking a flier on Morrow. That insurance is looking thin right now, but once Knebel and Nelson return it will look much better. Unfortunately neither are available now, seemingly taking a rest rather than nursing injuries that most would have recovered from by now.
I took a moment to watch the postgame interview where Doc deflects that horrible choke job, essentially doubling down on Kenley and places blame on CT3 and the check swing. This guy has the balls of mosquito. How are you supposed to have the trust required to motivate your players when you throw your All-Star utility man under the bus when it was clear that Kenley didn’t do his job? Doc’s character is not that of a leader. He’s a small man in a big job and has been coasting on the backs of others. Yes, the team wins in spite of him. I don’t care about his lofty record. If he managed any other team, it would be a tire fire.
MT, I wanted to give you a big THANK YOU for running this site. It proved to be cathartic last night giving your loyal user base a place to vent. I’m sure people said things in the heat of the moment that they may not feel so strongly about when clearer heads prevail. But, it sure is nice having a forum to think out loud for others to hear and to hear from others with similar thoughts, effectively talking us down from the ledge.
This last series didn’t do anything to convince me that SF was the superior team. All it did was solidify what we all were thinking deep down, but didn’t necessarily say out loud. I’m sure many of us feel the same way about Kenley. Deep down, we love him. He came up as a Dodger and was great for a while. But, none of us felt that we could fully count on him during the offseason. We all wanted to believe in him, but he let us down in the biggest way, hopefully for the last time. This series loss is 100% on Kenley’s shoulders. If you can’t protect a one run lead at home against your division rival, you are not a closer on a Championship team. If you can’t even get a single freaking save in three freaking tries after having time off during the break, you’re not a freaking closer at all. It’s time to move on.
Thanks again to AC for listing all of the possibilities. Hopefully AF can work some magic and bring in reinforcements. But don’t forget, Doc said that Kenley is still the closer in last night’s post game and it’s not entirely his decision. That decision is made by a group of people and AF is in that group. Although AF is a great GM, he really needs to stop micromanaging and let a manager do their job and hold them accountable if they can’t.
July’s soft schedule was a missed opportunity to create a lot of space between us and the inferior competition in our division. This team will now have to do it the hard way. If we can get healthy, I’m sure the cream will rise to the top.
Hopefully, the bright side will be that they learned that they can’t count on Kenley by exposing him during the regular season when they still have a chance to do something about it. Hopefully, this is the silver lining in the dark cloud that hovers over Chavez ravine right now.
Good column, Jeff.
After another Kenley Jansen meltdown, I’m guessing bullpen help is a must, although Corey Knebel is getting close to returning. Rehab assignment next week? Expecting a Craig Kimbrel deal is probably a bit of a reach. Look for one of the lesser names and maybe a reliever no one is talking about.
Probably a starter is a must. Lot of competition and the farm system will take a hit. Will Keibert Ruiz be included in a deal. Short term gain, long term loss. I like Ruiz and switch hitters don’t grow on trees. The bat is impressive.
After listening to an interview with Andrew Friedman the other day, no question the Dodgers will be active, probably two or three deals will be made. But at this point what that will look like is just a guess. Doors will open, doors will close. The unexpected will happen. Hey, it will be fun.
But two things seem clear. Trevor Bauer is probably a lost cause and Jansen is a basket case. I cringed when I saw Dave Roberts bring him into the game last night. I really like Dave, but you can like your players too much and make bad decisions. We should just admit it, KJ is a mess. The second straight night of being booed., the chorus growing louder. Two great starts by Urias and Buehler down the drain.
The Dodgers can’t trade for good health which is what they need most. But they still need to address some flaws and holes in the current team.
As Friedman pointed out, what that looks like isn’t exactly clear.
Again, good write-up, Jeff, always enjoy your work.
I think our magic is in hiding this year. It will return I just don’t think it will this year. As such, (IMO) let’s drive up the prices of key options and allow the crack to be ingested by others. Keep our prospects and chart our course for how to handle Corey, CT3 and Cody.
I would have liked to see Blake try for 3 more outs last night!
The last few games have taken their toll on all Dodgerdom. I’d be thrilled to be wrong, I just think we need to recharge our magic for next year and beyond.
Keep our assets…..
The Cleveland Indians new name is the Gaurdians.
More Dodgers Bad News: Max Muncy Will Not Be With the Team This Weekend
It’s looking more and more like ” Let’s wait till next year”
Ok I will bow out after this until the Colorado series is over. We could easily get swept here. We will be facing free land who we haven’t solved, Gray who we have struggled with and we have price and Gonsolin up with Muncy out. This could get ugly quickly if the page is not turned. Let’s face it without our regulars we are not very good. We struggle to consistently score, our defense subpar and our starters outside buehler and Urias very beatable, and the bullpen well enough said. I would not lose any prospects over this team. On the plus side we still have Robert’s!!! Yay!!!
Today is Bauer’s hearing date.
As Buehler went deeper into last night’s game with a manageable pitch count it became apparent that Doc would be forced to have a plan for the ninth. This was playing out like a good suspense novel. Who does he go to based on the night before? Would he risk going to KJ again in the 9th or would it be Treinen or Kelly or who? Would Doc have the huevos to actually go back to Jansen with the game on the line. especially after the fan reaction from the night before. Would he consider that or trust KJ?
The exact scenario faced Gabe Kapler the night before with Tyler Rogers. Rogers had a blown save on Tuesday, his 5th. Sure enough, Kapler put Rogers right back on the horse the next night? He did and Rogers earned his 11th save. Rogers later spoke of his gratitude to Gabe for showing trust in him. Now Doc was faced with the same choice.
So I paused the game after 7 with Striker at 95 pitches and I asked myself, what would I do now? Would I stay with Buehler, go with Treinen and close with KJ? Do I listen to the fans? Remember the old saying “if a skipper listens to the fans long enough, some day soon he will be sitting with them”.
I was happy to see Doc stay with Striker in the 8th. When he got a baserunner, Doc predictably went to Blake to close the inning. Now what?
Holy shit, Batman, KJ was the choice for the 9th. And we all saw the results. It could have been a Cinderella Story had KJ closed the deal. He would have redemption, so would Doc and the fan base could eat crow. And we win a great game. But the fairy tale ending was not to be. A very tough walk and a very bad play by Neuse at 2nd, not stretching for Taylor’s throw from short that would have ended the game, and another walk, set up the 2 run single. Another blown save. Doc replaced Kenley to a shower of boos and the happy ending was shattered.
To add salt to the wound, a guy the Dodgers let walk, closed the game with a save.
It is a cruel game.
Done with Roberts and Jansen. enough is enough.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!
A little thing but these are the things the Dodgers are not doing this year. Kapler praised Vosler for getting a huge secondary lead at first being the reason he beat the throw to second. And the rest is history! Thought that you Phil would appreciate that one.
Another outstanding and well researched report Jeff. Your time and knowledge is very much appreciated.
It’s going to be a tough call for AF on what to do with this team. With all the injuries and the recovery times up in the air (for us fans) what to do? Having Betts, Seager, Lux, Bellinger being injured or playing injured we still should have won 3 of 4 from the Giants. We still have Muncy, Taylor, Turner, and Pollack playing well. You look at the Giant players they put on the field against us it’s hard to comprehend how can can lose to them. As mentioned above their starting infield is out with injuries.
I’m sure the front office knows if Mookie’s issues are going to linger the rest of the season. Then you have the question of whether Seager is going to be productive on his return. Is Kershaw coming back and if so how effective will he be? Will the BP ever get healthy before the season ends? Will Bellinger come out of his hitting woes? If the determination is maybe or negative to most of those questions then I don’t think AF is going to spend anymore treasure and prospects this season. The Dodgers are very good right now even with all the injuries and blunders. When healthy no one can touch them when it comes to talent. So, why go out and trade for some high impact player(s) when it will probably not get the team to the WS? Like Mark often states “it’s execution by the players”. And, for whatever reason they aren’t executing right now.
Roberts should seriously be a candidate to be replaced after the season. His act is getting old and the players probably feel the same way. He is a weak leader and is a terrible game manager. Like I’ve said for years he’s nothing more than cheerleader and a camp counselor. philjones wrote he even looks like a fool when arguing with umpires. It’s like he checks his in game book and sees “oh yeah, this is when I go out to argue a call”. His press conferences are nothing but a bunch of BS and clichés. They add absolutely nothing. I know he has a great record, but there are probably a dozen managers out there that could have done what Roberts did and most likely better. I find it strange how they rely on analytics so much, but when it comes to crunch time analytics go out the window. You can’t tell me analytics called for Kenley to pitch last night after pitching poorly the night before and had thrown 22 pitches.
It’s been a very frustrating season so far.
Dodgers in on Ian Kennedy
This isn’t terribly surprising news, as every contending team is always interested in improving their pitching arsenal as the trade deadline approaches. What is surprising is that the Dodgers find themselves three games behind the Giants in the NL West, a team that few picked as division favorites at the start of the season. And that divisional alignment is at least somewhat attributable to the fact that the Dodgers have lost to the Giants by blowing ninth-inning leads the past two nights.
Overall, the bullpen hasn’t been a glaring weakness for the club this year. The Dodgers’ relievers, as a whole, have an ERA of 3.73, the 10th best in the Majors. But they’ve also taken some hits lately, with Jimmy Nelson and Scott Alexander heading to the Injured List. David Price has also had to move from the bullpen to the rotation, in order to cover for the recent injury to Clayton Kershaw.
For Kennedy, it seems to be a foregone conclusion that he will be changing jerseys in the coming week. He is a free agent at year’s end and is currently playing for a Rangers team that is 35-62, behind every team in the American League except the Orioles. Thus far, he’s pitched 31 1/3 innings for Texas, accumulating 15 saves with an ERA of 2.59. Advanced metrics are somewhat skeptical, with xERA, FIP and xFIP pegging him at 3.40, 3.80 and 3.88, respectively. But he has excellent strikeout and walk rates of 26.8% and 5.7%.
Kenley Jansen has been the Dodgers closer for a decade now, and will probably continue in that role. But there are reasons for pessimism in his profile this year. Despite 21 saves, an ERA of 3.05 and a strikeout rate of 27.2%, Jansen has a ghastly walk rate of 16%, more than double his career rate. That’s probably why some advanced metrics think his ERA is a mirage, with xFIP placing him at 4.79 and SIERA at 4.56.
It’s possible this is just small sample noise, since we’re only talking about 38 1/3 innings and Jansen’s Statcast profile still looks quite healthy. But since Jansen is in the last year of his contract and will be 34 years old by season’s end, the Dodgers don’t have to be invested in Jansen for the long term and could certainly pivot to an alternative such as Kennedy if they felt they had to.
On the money side, Kennedy’s is playing on a salary of $2.15MM this year, leaving less than a million still to be paid out. The Dodgers don’t have to worry about tiptoeing under the luxury tax, since they’ve already blown past the top threshold of $250MM. (Roster Resource currently has their luxury tax calculation at $262MM.) But that means that they’re paying a whopping 62.5% tax on any additional salary they take on, which could make a modest contract like Kennedy’s more appealing than a costlier addition such as Craig Kimbrel, who is still owed over $6MM of his $16MM salary this year.
Credit MLB Trade Rumours
Just go for Kenta Maeda and get ride of Bellinger.
Enough of the same shit that Bellinger is “just starting his season” or “He had surgery” or keep waiting for him to “get back to his 2019 MVP form.”
He has never been a great hitter and he never will be …
Everything is:
Grounded out to first
Strike out
Fly ball to RF
Strike out
Grounded out to first
Oh wait… Grounded out to second
Again strike out
Grounded out to first
Oh wait… Hit between first and second
And then…. you understand.
Every fucking day I read the same….