Wheelin and Dealin

Earlier in the week, there was a little difference in opinion with respect to the Billy McKinney acquisition.   I continue to read how porous LAD’s defense is, and with a gimpy Mookie Betts who may need late-inning defensive help to get him off his hip, a slowing AJ Pollock, questionable defense of Matt Beaty, and the need for CT3 to spend more time in the infield, AF went out and got a decent defensive OF to fill a need THIS YEAR.  Carlos Rincon was never going to be anything but a DH, and the Dodgers have multiple MiLB players to fill that role,  so AF goes out and spends a lesser AA version of Reks and Raley with minimal defensive skills, to get defensive help.  To me it is a win.  But apparently, I am in the minority because I do consider defense as critical in winning a championship.  I do not know how much of Carlos Rincon any of you have seen, but since I watch a lot of Tulsa games, I have seen a lot of him.  He is a DH, and I hope he makes it. He is a good kid. But he is maybe a top 40-50 prospect.  Is it too much to spend a 40-50 prospect for help in 2021?  I will certainly continue to follow him, as I have Oneil Cruz. In 2017, the Dodgers traded a much higher-rated prospect in Oneil Cruz to acquire LHRP Tony Watson.  Watson was not able to get the Dodgers past the Cheaters and he is now struggling with the LAA.  OTOH, Cruz is a top 100 prospect with Pittsburgh.  Worth the trade?  IMO, YES.  If the Dodgers find another OF, they can always DFA McKinney. 

The Dodgers have three consensus Top 100 prospects: Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, and Michael Busch.  Baseball America has LAD with two other top 100 prospects: Diego Cartaya and Bobby Miller.  It is not like AF has not traded top 100 prospects before (Yusniel Diaz, Willie Calhoun, Grant Holmes, Jharel Cotton, Frankie Montas).  Holmes, Cotton and Montas went together in one trade for Rich Hill and Josh Reddick at the 2016 deadline. Willie Calhoun, AJ Alexy, and Brendon Davis were traded to Texas for Yu Darvish in 2017. Yusniel Diaz and 4 others were traded to Baltimore for Manny Machado at the 2018 deadline.  So, AF has previously traded highly rated prospects at the deadline for supposed game-changers, none of which worked out. He may try again.

What will AF do in 2021?  Nobody has a clue other than AF and his FO staff.  I do not think any GM or President of Baseball Operations has tighter control over rumors than AF.  Plus, there are several teams who are still considered contenders for 2021, and they are not going to trade away players who can help them get to the top.  As more than a couple of teams have shown, you only need to get to the playoffs to have a chance to win the WS.  IMO the sun is setting on Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Chicago; however, apparently only the Cubs realize their 2021 fate.  With a little more than a week from the deadline, I think the Reds and Cards will recognize their plight.  But will they trade? 

Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Washington all seem to believe that they can catch NYM for NL East, but the next week should indicate if those beliefs are dreams or reality.  Jacob deGrom is on the IL with forearm tightness that is said to be “improving”. He is set to resume throwing this week.  But deGrom has been anything but healthy this year with missed starts because of lat/side issues, flexor tendonitis, and shoulder soreness.  NYM is going to need a healthy deGrom to hold off other NL East contenders.  All four NL East contenders figure to go hunting in the next 9 days.

The NL schedule Gods did a great job of setting up for a fun next nine days (starting Thursday 07/22/21):

NYM – 3 with Toronto (H), and 5 with Atlanta (H) – Thru 07/29

Philadelphia – 4 with Atlanta (H) and 4 with Nats (H) – Thru 07/29

Atlanta – 4 with Philadelphia (A), and 5 with NYM (A) – Thru 07/29

Nats – 3 with Baltimore (A), and 4 with Philadelphia (A) – Thru 07/29

The AL is also a little muddled (albeit a little less) and will take most of the next nine days to determine buyers and sellers.  In the AL East, Boston and Tampa Bay figure to battle to the end.  While NYY and Toronto are struggling to stay with the top two, they are in contention for the 2^nd Wild Card team, being only 4.0 games behind Oakland for that spot.  In the AL Central, CWS is running away with it, but Cleveland is only 5.5 games behind Oakland.  In the AL West, Houston and Oakland also figure to battle to the end. Amazingly, Seattle is only 3.5 games behind Oakland and are ahead of NYY, Toronto, and Cleveland for that 2^nd WC.  IMO Cleveland is not a realistic contender.  They just do not have enough personnel to contend with NYY or Toronto or Seattle

AL schedules are also filled with some meaningful games thru 07/29.

Seattle – 4 with Oakland (H) and 3 with Houston (H)

Toronto – Red Sox 3 with NYM (A), and 4 with Red Sox (A)

NYY – Philadelphia 4 with Boston (A), and 3 with Tampa Bay (A)

I cannot see AF making a significant deal while so many teams are undecided as to where they are headed.  They do not want to miss out on a potential game-changer.  Traditionally, AF looks for sheer rentals (Hill, Reddick, Darvish, Machado), although he did acquire Alex Wood in 2015 with multiple years of control.  Acquiring multiple years of control requires a better return of prospects, which AF is reluctant to do.  There are no such things as untouchables, but for LAD, besides their five top 100 players, Miguel Vargas and Ryan Pepiot figure to be in that class, especially for rentals. 

I am not like some here.  I see holes in the Dodgers that need to be plugged if they are going to win another championship.  Pitching, both starting and relief, need to be addressed.  There has been a lot of talk regarding starting pitching.  I think they need one SP who can go deeper in the game than Gonsolin or Price, and be a legit #4 in October.  We have no idea how Clayton Kershaw will pitch in August or September, much less October.  Right now the only two SP that can be counted on are Walker Buehler and Julio Urias.  How well Urias holds up is also open for debate?

Max Scherzer (RHSP) is a rental and his name comes up a lot.  Much will depend on the next nine days to even know if he will be available, but even if he is, it will be hard for me to see the Dodgers making that trade.  Scherzer has a no-trade clause, and he is not going to waive it without getting something in return.  Too much is unknown for 2022 and 2023 for the Dodgers right now.  Regardless, Max has 7 years (2022-2028) of $15MM annual deferred contract payments that would be assumed by the trading team.  Of course, Washington can pay that down quite a bit, but then the prospect asking price will escalate. 

Luis Castillo (RHSP) is not going anywhere.  Neither is German Marquez (RHSP) .  Pitchers with year(s) of control beyond 2021 who may be available include:

Kyle Hendricks (RHSP) – $14MM for 2022 and 2023, with a $16MM team option in 2024.  While I do like Hendricks, it is hard to be convinced that a pitcher who throws 87 can sustain his record for two-three more years.  I think the Cubs will want more than AF is willing to spend.

Kyle Gibson (RHSP) – $7MM is owed for 2022, but with an AAV of closer to $9MM.  He is certainly affordable and is having a good year.  Will he in 2022? That thought process will go into the prospect cost calculation.  I am not sure what he is doing in 2021 is sustainable in 2022.  Considering that he has allowed 13 runs in 11.1 IP his last two outings, I am not sure it is sustainable in 2021.

Jose Berrios (RHSP) – Is currently earning $6.1MM in arbitration and is pitching decently in 2021, but not enough for third-year arbitration to skyrocket.  His prospect capital will be exceedingly high, as Berrios has the potential for top of the rotation. He is an innings eater who has averaged 6.0 IP this year.  For 2023.. He has a plus fastball, but his secondary pitch (curve is not).  His third pitch (change) does have swing and miss capabilities.

Matthew Boyd (LHSP) – Is currently earning $6.5MM in arbitration and is pitching decently in 2021, but not enough for third-year arbitration to skyrocket, and not as well as Berrios.  This is his first year with a sub 4.00 ERA.  He is not an innings eater.  I am not a fan, but he does seem to come up in deadline trade conversations every year.

Wade Miley (LHSP) – I include him in this group because he has a very favorable team option of $10MM for 2022.  Miley is having a fine year, but he is 34.  His prospect capital should not be onerous. He is averaging 6.0 IP per start, so he qualifies as an innings eater in today’s definition.  Not a big strikeout pitcher, but does not walk a lot either.  He is having his best SO/W ration since his rookie season in 2012.  He has allowed 7 HRs while playing his home games in Cincinnati. 

Sonny Gray (RHSP) – Gray is owed $10.2MM for 2022 with potential escalators, and a club option of $12MM. He is averaging a little over 5 IP, so he does not remotely go deep into games.  He is a strike-out pitcher that LAD seems to like.  He has 86 K in 66.2 IP. While his ERA is acceptable at 3.65, his 1.350 WHIP in 2021….not ideal at all.  He was a fantastic postseason pitcher for Oakland in 2013, not so much for NYY in 2017.  Question remains…Can he pitch under big city lights?  He didn’t for NYY.  If the LAD can get the Oakland Sonny Gray, they would be very happy.

But if AF is more true to prior year’s transactions, then he will be looking for a true rental.  Of those, the ones that are being most widely discussed are Jon Gray (RHSP) , Tyler Anderson (LHSP), and Michael Pineda (RHSP).  Of the three, I greatly prefer Jon Gray who is having a good year.  He seemingly has a good year, followed by a not-so-good year, every other year.  In 2021 it is a good year.  Since he is a rental, who cares if it is sustainable after 2021.  However, I am not sure that Colorado will deal with LAD without a Dodger overpay.  I am not a fan, but I would not be at all surprised if the Dodgers dealt with Pittsburgh for Anderson.  The prospect capital will be acceptable, but he really is a below-average pitcher, and I would be disappointed if AF dealt for him.

I like Wade Miley and Jose Berrios the most of the possible available starting pitchers.  Berrios will be waaaaaayyyy too costly.  Miley could be the 2021 version of Lance Lynn.

I recognize that some might include a pair of rentals…Adam Wainwright (RHSP) and Danny Duffy (LHSP). Wainwright turns 40 at the end of August and has had a couple of injury years (2015, 2017, and 2019). I have a very tough time envisioning him out of a Cardinals uni. I could be very wrong, but I do not see him leaving St. Louis. Duffy is another with a no-trade clause who has been with KC his entire career. He has expressed his desire to stay with KC for his career. He is from Goleta, CA, so he may accept a move to a West Coast team. However, he is currently on the IL for the 2nd time this season with a left flexor strain. I doubt that the Dodgers need another injured pitcher in their arsenal.

With respect to relievers, Craig Kimbrel (RHRP) is expensive ($$$ and prospects), but he could be the answer.  After him, there are a number that AF will check into, but I have no clue as to who he is interested in. 

Taylor Rogers (LHRP) was having a good year until July 11.  I liken him to a former Twin, Ryan Pressly, who had a very good 2017, and a similar start to 2018 as Rogers has had before Ryan was dealt to Houston. He was basically unhittable in 2018 after the trade to Houston. Likewise, Rogers had a very good 2019 and is having an okay 2021 (I ignore 2020).  To me, he is a LH version of Ryan Pressly.  For Eric’s benefit, Pressly’s career OPS against was mediocre with Minnesota, but he turned it around with Houston.  His career OPS vs LHH and RHH fits Eric’s algorithm.  I think Rogers can do the same if he is moved.  He is controlled thru 2022.

Richard Rodriguez (RHRP) looks to be available but could be expensive.  Ben Cherington is a much better GM than Neal Huntington was.  He will not be cheated.

The Cubs’ Andrew Chafin (LHRP) is having an excellent 2021 campaign (1.37 ERA, 0.737 WHIP, 37 K vs 10 BB in 39.1 IP).  Chafin and Chicago have a 2022 mutual option ($5.25MM or $500K buyout).  Another Cubs reliever that is having a good year is Keegan Thompson (RHRP).  He is a 26-year-old rookie and is having a solid season.  I doubt that Chicago makes him available.

If NYY decides to sell, I will go back to my old standby Chad Green (RHRP).  Like Rogers, he is controlled thru 2022.

Ian Kennedy (RHRP) is putting up another solid year for Texas.  He is a rental.

Now that Kendall Graveman (RHRP) has fully converted to relief, he is having a career year for Seattle and is a rental.  However, Seattle is still in contention and may still become July 30.

If LAA decides to sell, they will look to move Raisel Iglesias (RHRP).  He is a rental.  So so ERA (3.40), but a solid WHIP (0.898).  But where he looks to shine is 65 K vs. 8 BB in 42.1 IP.  Since May 8: Iglesias has pitched 28.1 innings with a 2.23 ERA and a sub 1.000 WHIP.  He has 52 K, 7 BB, and 18 hits allowed.  Opponents are hitting .158/.207/.333/.540.  He has 12 inherited runners and only 2 have scored.  He has 15 saves against 1 blown save.  He is in the final year of a 3 year $24.125MM contract.  2021 contract is $9.125MM.

If Atlanta decides to sell, look for Will Smith (LHRP) to be available.  Smith is under contract thru 2022 and has a 2023 team option ($13MM or $1MM buyout).  Expensive, but the prospect payoff should be acceptable to AF, but his contract may be too costly for LAD.

Would Baltimore look to possibly move Tanner Scott (LHRP)?  More likely Paul Fry (LHRP).

Richard Bleier (LHRP) is having a good year for Miami with a 0.884 WHIP and 28K vs. 2 BB in 37.1 IP.  Very impressive SO/W ratio of 14.0.

Relievers are very fickle, and outside of Craig Kimbrel, there is not a sure thing. But there are a handful of pitchers who could surprise.  I know Mark and a couple of others like Garrett Cleavinger, but with his 1.59 WHIP he is not someone I want SD to see coming down the stretch.  Same with Scott Alexander and Alex Vesia.  Vesia may be good down the road, but this is a run for another championship, and I do not think he is ready for that pressure.  He appears to be a keeper, but probably not before 2022.  Jimmy Nelson and Corey Knebel will be added to the roster in the near future.  Brusdar Graterol will need to wait until 2022 to make a lasting impression.  He throws hard.  Now he needs to learn how to pitch.  That leaves two other unknowns coming down the stretch.  How will Bickford and Sherfy respond to the pressure of a reigning WS champion looking to repeat?

KJ, Treinen, Kelly, Nelson, Knebel, and VGon look to be set.  But KJ seems to be leaking back towards the inconsistent and unreliable 2018-2020 KJ.  Can he turn it around?????  5 blown saves is not a good sign for a team looking to repeat.  VGon may still have plantar fasciitis.  If he truly had plantar fasciitis, it is painful and it does not just go away.  It can take months to heal.  Nelson has a lumbar strain.  He had lumbar surgery last year.  Will his back ever be able to take a heavy reliever workload?  Lat injuries also have a tendency to linger.  Will Knebel return as AF hopes?  There are just too many questions in the LAD bullpen to be a WS caliber pen.

There is a lot to ponder over the next nine days.  AF figures to make a move (or two or three).  But we may have to wait until July 30 at 1:00 PM (PT) to find out.  There are just too many undecided teams right now.