Wheelin and Dealin

My new attitude to the Dodgers is really simple. I don’t need to to know how great your record is. Or who is out for what reason . Or so and so isn’t hitting because. No , I just want to know WHAT DID YOU DO LAST NIGHT? DID YOU WIN?

From The Athletic:

The Dodgers entered Thursday ranked third in defensive efficiency, the simple measure of being able to convert balls in play into outs. Their defense has largely been sound but vulnerable to some rather notable flubs, like Thursday, when they had the game won until they didn’t.

Excellent points, Phil.

Certainly this was a game of inches and a blown umpire call literally changed the outcome of the game. If the first base umpire makes the right call, the game is over. However, you can’t control bad calls, and good teams overcome them.

The Dodgers have been terrible in close games this year, and their defense has been subpar. Neuse should have stretched more, and he has been a defensive liability this year, even though Roberts seems to think he is a defensive wizard. And Neuse defensive mistakes have cost them at least 2 other games this year. He booted an easy DP grounder against the Padres with a 7-1 lead that would have ended the 7th inning of a game that became a 8-7 loss. He also made an error against the Marlins that extended an inning that resulted in a 3 run HR in a 3-2 loss to the Marlins. And even on Wednesday night he was at 3B in the ninth inning when Flores hit a grounder down the line that Neuse bobbled but was called foul. At the time the foul call seemed like a break, until Flores proceeded to homer in the at bat off Jansen. And last night, after Neuse caught the ball, it looked like he may have lost track of the outs as he looked home after the out call.

But in addition to Neuse not stretching, other Dodger mistakes on that play were made. Taylor did not charge the ball and took his time fielding. Taylor also should have known that the runner on first would have a big lead, and the better play was probably first. Justin Turner made a futile attempt at the ball and then did not cover third base which would have been an easy option for Taylor also. And as always Kenley’s slow delivery allowed the runner to get a huge jump and beat the throw.

A lot of mistakes on a potential game ending play by several players. And the Dodgers not doing the little things well, has been a problem most of the year.

How about that Dodger alum Kike’Hernandez tying that game with two outs in the ninth with a two-run double. I’ll always love Kike’no matter where he goes

Kenley Jansen has had bad luck, I know that, but here is all you need to know about it:

Kenley Jansen has faced 14 batters the last two nights and retired just three! 3!

Our old friend Rich Hill was just traded to the Mets from the Rays.

I disagree, They will be having their best pitchers going the first two games in SF. Urias and Buehler, and as long as they stay away from Jansen, I feel they will feel some urgency and play a lot better. Max will be a new dad, and not be waiting for the child to be born, so he can concentrate fully on being the Giant killer he has been all year. Have faith brother. All will be revealed soon.

After last night’s awful game, I was absolutely convinced that the Dodgers will not win the NL West. To my amazement, the odds still favor the Dodgers, who are -250, to the Giants +175 It looks like a bargain, but the oddsmakers are sharp. However, I have read that they were overweighted on the Dodgers.

My thought is that we will not win more than a game in SF, and that the rest of the season will just be “preparing” for the Wild Card game with San Diego. Not an optimistic prospect, as it looks like we do not have enough to win the pennant; and then we face next season with some very important players gone, and nothing much in the minors to be excited about. We could easily be the third best team in the division, and miss the playoffs for the next few years, looking at our prospective roster. Not enjoyable to contemplate. We had our window, and it stayed open at least partially because our division was so bad, but that is not the case now, and most of our key players are either near the end of their careers, or have injury issues.

Obviously, I cannot suggest to the front office what to do, but I hope we make deals with a focus on building the best team for next season. We do need a starter, but it has to be someone whom we really want to have next season, too, not an innings filler type of guy. We absolutely need a closer, but a first-class one, not another person for Roberts to use erratically in his mix-and-match style. Someone who can close down a game at least most of the time, and in commanding fashion. That is what you usually need to win a title, and we have not had that for a few years; we managed to win one last year, even so, but it is rare, and we basically circumvented Jansen’s role.

This Jansen aspect is an example of where the informed fans actually had a better perspective than they are given credit for. Kenley has not really been impressive for years. In 2019, despite saying that he remained the closer, Roberts did not use him in any crucial situation in the games against Washington. Last season, he was not a key bullpen piece, though he lost Game 4 of the World Series. During the offseason, many of us said that we absolutely needed to trade for or purchase a closer, as well as a top righthanded bat, but the closer was imperative. We got neither, and so the Dodgers went out there with Kenley again. He was better than last year, but rarely dominating. And now he has blown three straight saves, last night’s with a two run lead. The Dodgers gave the Giants only two total runs in the 16 innings prior to the ninth in the last two games, and then Jansen gave up eight runs total, ruining all the great efforts of Urias and Buehler.

We like Kenley as a person, but this has become some kind of human interest saga, where they just feel compelled to not upset him. Roberts wanted everybody to know that this was not Kenley’s fault. Yes, Neuse did not make a good play by somehow not stretching to catch what would have been the last out. .Yes, the half-swing non-call was just wrong. But the fact is that it should never have gotten to that situation. Jansen actually got the first batter out, but then gave up a double, then loaded the bases. Then after the non-call, he gave up a two-run single, and that was the game. Great closers do not do that. All closers fail sometimes, some much less than others, but Jansen should never have been in that position this year, but somehow he has been. And it may be too late to do anything to salvage this now.

So I blame Friedman for standing pat with Kenley, and I blame Roberts for continuing to be so protective of him, wanting to keep his confidence up. The issue is not confidence, it is velocity and movement, those don’t get fixed by just putting him out there. Of course, we do not really have a closer; Treinen is not what he was in Oakland, but is pitching better than Jansen. Kelly is interesting, but still erratic, liable to walk three batters in a row, like he did against Washington in the deciding playoff game; maybe one was a hit batter, same difference. Friedman did not adequately shore up the bullpen; picking up injured players like Nelson and Knebel was a low-risk way to try.

So here we are, three games out, having to play three in SF soon, where they can make sure that we cannot rally to catch them.. And the rest of the season may be a slog where our playoff situation is already determined. I think that we should either make a big trade where we pick up someone who is a major piece, or let it go. Likely we will do something else, which is make a few deals for middling players who will help a bit, but not likely enough to change us from a Wildcard team to one with the home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Just go for Kenta Maeda and get ride of Bellinger.

Enough of the same shit that Bellinger is “just starting his season” or “He had surgery” or keep waiting for him to “get back to his 2019 MVP form.”

He has never been a great hitter and he never will be …

Everything is:

Grounded out to first

Strike out

Fly ball to RF

Strike out

Grounded out to first

Oh wait… Grounded out to second

Again strike out

Grounded out to first

Oh wait… Hit between first and second

And then…. you understand.

Every fucking day I read the same….

Dodgers in on Ian Kennedy

This isn’t terribly surprising news, as every contending team is always interested in improving their pitching arsenal as the trade deadline approaches. What is surprising is that the Dodgers find themselves three games behind the Giants in the NL West, a team that few picked as division favorites at the start of the season. And that divisional alignment is at least somewhat attributable to the fact that the Dodgers have lost to the Giants by blowing ninth-inning leads the past two nights.

Overall, the bullpen hasn’t been a glaring weakness for the club this year. The Dodgers’ relievers, as a whole, have an ERA of 3.73, the 10th best in the Majors. But they’ve also taken some hits lately, with Jimmy Nelson and Scott Alexander heading to the Injured List. David Price has also had to move from the bullpen to the rotation, in order to cover for the recent injury to Clayton Kershaw.

For Kennedy, it seems to be a foregone conclusion that he will be changing jerseys in the coming week. He is a free agent at year’s end and is currently playing for a Rangers team that is 35-62, behind every team in the American League except the Orioles. Thus far, he’s pitched 31 1/3 innings for Texas, accumulating 15 saves with an ERA of 2.59. Advanced metrics are somewhat skeptical, with xERA, FIP and xFIP pegging him at 3.40, 3.80 and 3.88, respectively. But he has excellent strikeout and walk rates of 26.8% and 5.7%.

Kenley Jansen has been the Dodgers closer for a decade now, and will probably continue in that role. But there are reasons for pessimism in his profile this year. Despite 21 saves, an ERA of 3.05 and a strikeout rate of 27.2%, Jansen has a ghastly walk rate of 16%, more than double his career rate. That’s probably why some advanced metrics think his ERA is a mirage, with xFIP placing him at 4.79 and SIERA at 4.56.

It’s possible this is just small sample noise, since we’re only talking about 38 1/3 innings and Jansen’s Statcast profile still looks quite healthy. But since Jansen is in the last year of his contract and will be 34 years old by season’s end, the Dodgers don’t have to be invested in Jansen for the long term and could certainly pivot to an alternative such as Kennedy if they felt they had to.

On the money side, Kennedy’s is playing on a salary of $2.15MM this year, leaving less than a million still to be paid out. The Dodgers don’t have to worry about tiptoeing under the luxury tax, since they’ve already blown past the top threshold of $250MM. (Roster Resource currently has their luxury tax calculation at $262MM.) But that means that they’re paying a whopping 62.5% tax on any additional salary they take on, which could make a modest contract like Kennedy’s more appealing than a costlier addition such as Craig Kimbrel, who is still owed over $6MM of his $16MM salary this year.

Credit MLB Trade Rumours

Another outstanding and well researched report Jeff. Your time and knowledge is very much appreciated.

It’s going to be a tough call for AF on what to do with this team. With all the injuries and the recovery times up in the air (for us fans) what to do? Having Betts, Seager, Lux, Bellinger being injured or playing injured we still should have won 3 of 4 from the Giants. We still have Muncy, Taylor, Turner, and Pollack playing well. You look at the Giant players they put on the field against us it’s hard to comprehend how can can lose to them. As mentioned above their starting infield is out with injuries.

I’m sure the front office knows if Mookie’s issues are going to linger the rest of the season. Then you have the question of whether Seager is going to be productive on his return. Is Kershaw coming back and if so how effective will he be? Will the BP ever get healthy before the season ends? Will Bellinger come out of his hitting woes? If the determination is maybe or negative to most of those questions then I don’t think AF is going to spend anymore treasure and prospects this season. The Dodgers are very good right now even with all the injuries and blunders. When healthy no one can touch them when it comes to talent. So, why go out and trade for some high impact player(s) when it will probably not get the team to the WS? Like Mark often states “it’s execution by the players”. And, for whatever reason they aren’t executing right now.

Roberts should seriously be a candidate to be replaced after the season. His act is getting old and the players probably feel the same way. He is a weak leader and is a terrible game manager. Like I’ve said for years he’s nothing more than cheerleader and a camp counselor. philjones wrote he even looks like a fool when arguing with umpires. It’s like he checks his in game book and sees “oh yeah, this is when I go out to argue a call”. His press conferences are nothing but a bunch of BS and clichés. They add absolutely nothing. I know he has a great record, but there are probably a dozen managers out there that could have done what Roberts did and most likely better. I find it strange how they rely on analytics so much, but when it comes to crunch time analytics go out the window. You can’t tell me analytics called for Kenley to pitch last night after pitching poorly the night before and had thrown 22 pitches.

It’s been a very frustrating season so far.

A little thing but these are the things the Dodgers are not doing this year. Kapler praised Vosler for getting a huge secondary lead at first being the reason he beat the throw to second. And the rest is history! Thought that you Phil would appreciate that one.

Done with Roberts and Jansen. enough is enough.

Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!

As Buehler went deeper into last night’s game with a manageable pitch count it became apparent that Doc would be forced to have a plan for the ninth. This was playing out like a good suspense novel. Who does he go to based on the night before? Would he risk going to KJ again in the 9th or would it be Treinen or Kelly or who? Would Doc have the huevos to actually go back to Jansen with the game on the line. especially after the fan reaction from the night before. Would he consider that or trust KJ?

The exact scenario faced Gabe Kapler the night before with Tyler Rogers. Rogers had a blown save on Tuesday, his 5th. Sure enough, Kapler put Rogers right back on the horse the next night? He did and Rogers earned his 11th save. Rogers later spoke of his gratitude to Gabe for showing trust in him. Now Doc was faced with the same choice.

So I paused the game after 7 with Striker at 95 pitches and I asked myself, what would I do now? Would I stay with Buehler, go with Treinen and close with KJ? Do I listen to the fans? Remember the old saying “if a skipper listens to the fans long enough, some day soon he will be sitting with them”.

I was happy to see Doc stay with Striker in the 8th. When he got a baserunner, Doc predictably went to Blake to close the inning. Now what?

Holy shit, Batman, KJ was the choice for the 9th. And we all saw the results. It could have been a Cinderella Story had KJ closed the deal. He would have redemption, so would Doc and the fan base could eat crow. And we win a great game. But the fairy tale ending was not to be. A very tough walk and a very bad play by Neuse at 2nd, not stretching for Taylor’s throw from short that would have ended the game, and another walk, set up the 2 run single. Another blown save. Doc replaced Kenley to a shower of boos and the happy ending was shattered.

To add salt to the wound, a guy the Dodgers let walk, closed the game with a save.

It is a cruel game.

Today is Bauer’s hearing date.

Ok I will bow out after this until the Colorado series is over. We could easily get swept here. We will be facing free land who we haven’t solved, Gray who we have struggled with and we have price and Gonsolin up with Muncy out. This could get ugly quickly if the page is not turned. Let’s face it without our regulars we are not very good. We struggle to consistently score, our defense subpar and our starters outside buehler and Urias very beatable, and the bullpen well enough said. I would not lose any prospects over this team. On the plus side we still have Robert’s!!! Yay!!!

More Dodgers Bad News: Max Muncy Will Not Be With the Team This Weekend

It’s looking more and more like ” Let’s wait till next year”

The Cleveland Indians new name is the Gaurdians.

I think our magic is in hiding this year. It will return I just don’t think it will this year. As such, (IMO) let’s drive up the prices of key options and allow the crack to be ingested by others. Keep our prospects and chart our course for how to handle Corey, CT3 and Cody.

I would have liked to see Blake try for 3 more outs last night!

The last few games have taken their toll on all Dodgerdom. I’d be thrilled to be wrong, I just think we need to recharge our magic for next year and beyond.

Keep our assets…..

Good column, Jeff.

After another Kenley Jansen meltdown, I’m guessing bullpen help is a must, although Corey Knebel is getting close to returning. Rehab assignment next week? Expecting a Craig Kimbrel deal is probably a bit of a reach. Look for one of the lesser names and maybe a reliever no one is talking about.

Probably a starter is a must. Lot of competition and the farm system will take a hit. Will Keibert Ruiz be included in a deal. Short term gain, long term loss. I like Ruiz and switch hitters don’t grow on trees. The bat is impressive.

After listening to an interview with Andrew Friedman the other day, no question the Dodgers will be active, probably two or three deals will be made. But at this point what that will look like is just a guess. Doors will open, doors will close. The unexpected will happen. Hey, it will be fun.

But two things seem clear. Trevor Bauer is probably a lost cause and Jansen is a basket case. I cringed when I saw Dave Roberts bring him into the game last night. I really like Dave, but you can like your players too much and make bad decisions. We should just admit it, KJ is a mess. The second straight night of being booed., the chorus growing louder. Two great starts by Urias and Buehler down the drain.

The Dodgers can’t trade for good health which is what they need most. But they still need to address some flaws and holes in the current team.

As Friedman pointed out, what that looks like isn’t exactly clear.

Again, good write-up, Jeff, always enjoy your work.

Wow, there’s a lot to break down here. Thanks AC, for putting together a complete list of just about every possibility. It’s always a pleasure to read your thorough analysis.

WTF Mark? As I wake up with my eyes burning, it isn’t bad enough to rehash last night’s nightmare, you have to make me cry my posting that Vin Scully article. As a married man of close to 30 years, I can only imagine the pain that Vin must be feeling.

My disdain for Roberts is well documented. I don’t really give a crap about CT3’s misplay, the call shouldn’t have been overturned. It looked like a tie at the very least. I don’t give a crap about the check swing call either. At that point Kenley has already faced most of their lineup and any decent closer would have never got into that predicament in the first place. It was criminal to leave Jansen in for as long as he did. Nothing good could have come from it.

My biggest problem is to continue doing the same thing with Kenley even though he looks like a bull in a china shop and a deer in the headlights simultaneously. He doesn’t look like someone that the confidence necessary for the job and he doesn’t even look like a pitcher that has the control or command to pitch at the back end of a ballgame. Even when he was effective earlier in the year, the ball would seldom end up where the catcher’s glove was initially placed. You just knew it was a matter of time before he’d implode and he did so in a big way this past week, with a gascan in one hand and a road flare in the other.

This type of meltdown is what many of us feared even going into the season. I felt pretty good about having Kenley insurance with Knebel and Treinen on the roster and taking a flier on Morrow. That insurance is looking thin right now, but once Knebel and Nelson return it will look much better. Unfortunately neither are available now, seemingly taking a rest rather than nursing injuries that most would have recovered from by now.

I took a moment to watch the postgame interview where Doc deflects that horrible choke job, essentially doubling down on Kenley and places blame on CT3 and the check swing. This guy has the balls of mosquito. How are you supposed to have the trust required to motivate your players when you throw your All-Star utility man under the bus when it was clear that Kenley didn’t do his job? Doc’s character is not that of a leader. He’s a small man in a big job and has been coasting on the backs of others. Yes, the team wins in spite of him. I don’t care about his lofty record. If he managed any other team, it would be a tire fire.

MT, I wanted to give you a big THANK YOU for running this site. It proved to be cathartic last night giving your loyal user base a place to vent. I’m sure people said things in the heat of the moment that they may not feel so strongly about when clearer heads prevail. But, it sure is nice having a forum to think out loud for others to hear and to hear from others with similar thoughts, effectively talking us down from the ledge.

This last series didn’t do anything to convince me that SF was the superior team. All it did was solidify what we all were thinking deep down, but didn’t necessarily say out loud. I’m sure many of us feel the same way about Kenley. Deep down, we love him. He came up as a Dodger and was great for a while. But, none of us felt that we could fully count on him during the offseason. We all wanted to believe in him, but he let us down in the biggest way, hopefully for the last time. This series loss is 100% on Kenley’s shoulders. If you can’t protect a one run lead at home against your division rival, you are not a closer on a Championship team. If you can’t even get a single freaking save in three freaking tries after having time off during the break, you’re not a freaking closer at all. It’s time to move on.

Thanks again to AC for listing all of the possibilities. Hopefully AF can work some magic and bring in reinforcements. But don’t forget, Doc said that Kenley is still the closer in last night’s post game and it’s not entirely his decision. That decision is made by a group of people and AF is in that group. Although AF is a great GM, he really needs to stop micromanaging and let a manager do their job and hold them accountable if they can’t.

July’s soft schedule was a missed opportunity to create a lot of space between us and the inferior competition in our division. This team will now have to do it the hard way. If we can get healthy, I’m sure the cream will rise to the top.

Hopefully, the bright side will be that they learned that they can’t count on Kenley by exposing him during the regular season when they still have a chance to do something about it. Hopefully, this is the silver lining in the dark cloud that hovers over Chavez ravine right now.

Farhan is executive of the year. Kepler is manager of the year and Posey is MVP. It’s mind boggling what the Giants have done this year and they have had a ton of injuries as well. They just about swept us and their entire starting infield is injured and out! Their”depth” is crushing our “depth”!

So Belinger can struggle night after night, but Kenley dips below All Star performance for 3 games and he’s finished.

With some help from Noisy and the 1st Base Umpire it woulda been a different story.

He had some much better movement and decent heat last night – I thought he was unlucky.

Strange how you’ve changed your tune on the basis of one evening’s work Mark?

How come Roberts gets a free pass?

I’m at a loss this morning. I can no longer defend Roberts.

It’s a simple concept really. We talked about it yesterday. Phil gets it. Others get it. Why doesn’t Roberts? NEVER two nights in a row. And 33 pitches? Are you crazy?

Did he deliberately set Jansen up for failure? I find it inexcusable. Jansen is now damaged goods. He’s only good for the 7th and only in low leverage situations.

7 for 34. 1 for 7 WRISP. Buehler with a wasted gem. Sigh.

AFV is right. Mookie is the leader of this group. You can’t lead from the bench. Seager? Where tf is he?

Gut check time.

Sorry I forgot to mention in my post above, another outstanding article Jeff, you are truly an amazing writer and I always look forward to your lead articles. They are well thought out, articulate and are truly paid content worthy.