Wheelin and Dealin

After last night’s awful game, I was absolutely convinced that the Dodgers will not win the NL West. To my amazement, the odds still favor the Dodgers, who are -250, to the Giants +175 It looks like a bargain, but the oddsmakers are sharp. However, I have read that they were overweighted on the Dodgers.

My thought is that we will not win more than a game in SF, and that the rest of the season will just be “preparing” for the Wild Card game with San Diego. Not an optimistic prospect, as it looks like we do not have enough to win the pennant; and then we face next season with some very important players gone, and nothing much in the minors to be excited about. We could easily be the third best team in the division, and miss the playoffs for the next few years, looking at our prospective roster. Not enjoyable to contemplate. We had our window, and it stayed open at least partially because our division was so bad, but that is not the case now, and most of our key players are either near the end of their careers, or have injury issues.

Obviously, I cannot suggest to the front office what to do, but I hope we make deals with a focus on building the best team for next season. We do need a starter, but it has to be someone whom we really want to have next season, too, not an innings filler type of guy. We absolutely need a closer, but a first-class one, not another person for Roberts to use erratically in his mix-and-match style. Someone who can close down a game at least most of the time, and in commanding fashion. That is what you usually need to win a title, and we have not had that for a few years; we managed to win one last year, even so, but it is rare, and we basically circumvented Jansen’s role.

This Jansen aspect is an example of where the informed fans actually had a better perspective than they are given credit for. Kenley has not really been impressive for years. In 2019, despite saying that he remained the closer, Roberts did not use him in any crucial situation in the games against Washington. Last season, he was not a key bullpen piece, though he lost Game 4 of the World Series. During the offseason, many of us said that we absolutely needed to trade for or purchase a closer, as well as a top righthanded bat, but the closer was imperative. We got neither, and so the Dodgers went out there with Kenley again. He was better than last year, but rarely dominating. And now he has blown three straight saves, last night’s with a two run lead. The Dodgers gave the Giants only two total runs in the 16 innings prior to the ninth in the last two games, and then Jansen gave up eight runs total, ruining all the great efforts of Urias and Buehler.

We like Kenley as a person, but this has become some kind of human interest saga, where they just feel compelled to not upset him. Roberts wanted everybody to know that this was not Kenley’s fault. Yes, Neuse did not make a good play by somehow not stretching to catch what would have been the last out. .Yes, the half-swing non-call was just wrong. But the fact is that it should never have gotten to that situation. Jansen actually got the first batter out, but then gave up a double, then loaded the bases. Then after the non-call, he gave up a two-run single, and that was the game. Great closers do not do that. All closers fail sometimes, some much less than others, but Jansen should never have been in that position this year, but somehow he has been. And it may be too late to do anything to salvage this now.

So I blame Friedman for standing pat with Kenley, and I blame Roberts for continuing to be so protective of him, wanting to keep his confidence up. The issue is not confidence, it is velocity and movement, those don’t get fixed by just putting him out there. Of course, we do not really have a closer; Treinen is not what he was in Oakland, but is pitching better than Jansen. Kelly is interesting, but still erratic, liable to walk three batters in a row, like he did against Washington in the deciding playoff game; maybe one was a hit batter, same difference. Friedman did not adequately shore up the bullpen; picking up injured players like Nelson and Knebel was a low-risk way to try.

So here we are, three games out, having to play three in SF soon, where they can make sure that we cannot rally to catch them.. And the rest of the season may be a slog where our playoff situation is already determined. I think that we should either make a big trade where we pick up someone who is a major piece, or let it go. Likely we will do something else, which is make a few deals for middling players who will help a bit, but not likely enough to change us from a Wildcard team to one with the home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

I disagree, They will be having their best pitchers going the first two games in SF. Urias and Buehler, and as long as they stay away from Jansen, I feel they will feel some urgency and play a lot better. Max will be a new dad, and not be waiting for the child to be born, so he can concentrate fully on being the Giant killer he has been all year. Have faith brother. All will be revealed soon.

Our old friend Rich Hill was just traded to the Mets from the Rays.

Kenley Jansen has had bad luck, I know that, but here is all you need to know about it:

Kenley Jansen has faced 14 batters the last two nights and retired just three! 3!

How about that Dodger alum Kike’Hernandez tying that game with two outs in the ninth with a two-run double. I’ll always love Kike’no matter where he goes

Excellent points, Phil.

Certainly this was a game of inches and a blown umpire call literally changed the outcome of the game. If the first base umpire makes the right call, the game is over. However, you can’t control bad calls, and good teams overcome them.

The Dodgers have been terrible in close games this year, and their defense has been subpar. Neuse should have stretched more, and he has been a defensive liability this year, even though Roberts seems to think he is a defensive wizard. And Neuse defensive mistakes have cost them at least 2 other games this year. He booted an easy DP grounder against the Padres with a 7-1 lead that would have ended the 7th inning of a game that became a 8-7 loss. He also made an error against the Marlins that extended an inning that resulted in a 3 run HR in a 3-2 loss to the Marlins. And even on Wednesday night he was at 3B in the ninth inning when Flores hit a grounder down the line that Neuse bobbled but was called foul. At the time the foul call seemed like a break, until Flores proceeded to homer in the at bat off Jansen. And last night, after Neuse caught the ball, it looked like he may have lost track of the outs as he looked home after the out call.

But in addition to Neuse not stretching, other Dodger mistakes on that play were made. Taylor did not charge the ball and took his time fielding. Taylor also should have known that the runner on first would have a big lead, and the better play was probably first. Justin Turner made a futile attempt at the ball and then did not cover third base which would have been an easy option for Taylor also. And as always Kenley’s slow delivery allowed the runner to get a huge jump and beat the throw.

A lot of mistakes on a potential game ending play by several players. And the Dodgers not doing the little things well, has been a problem most of the year.

From The Athletic:

The Dodgers entered Thursday ranked third in defensive efficiency, the simple measure of being able to convert balls in play into outs. Their defense has largely been sound but vulnerable to some rather notable flubs, like Thursday, when they had the game won until they didn’t.

My new attitude to the Dodgers is really simple. I don’t need to to know how great your record is. Or who is out for what reason . Or so and so isn’t hitting because. No , I just want to know WHAT DID YOU DO LAST NIGHT? DID YOU WIN?

Just read an interesting story on ESPN .com. MLB will begin testing a pitcher-catcher communication device in the California league next month. It would make hand signals obsolete and lessen the chance of stealing signs or location. The device will be worn on the catchers wrist, like the little card they use to decide how to pitch a certain hitter, and will be available in Spanish and English versions. The pitchers receiver is designed to fit in the liner in his cap. Will be very interesting to see how this works. MLB thinks it will shorten the time between pitches, and speed up the game.

Mets To Acquire Rich Hill From Rays

By Steve Adams | July 23, 2021 at 11:41am CDT

The Mets have reached a deal to acquire lefty Rich Hill in a trade with the Rays, tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Mets will send veteran righty Tommy Hunter (currently on the injured list) and minor league catcher/infielder Matt Dyer to Tampa Bay in the swap (Twitter links). MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo first reported (via Twitter) that the two sides had engaged in discussions, and Fansided’s Robert Murray reported that a deal was close. The trade is pending medical reviews of the players involved.

What a weird, wacky season so far. There’s some bizarro world traits to it. The 2nd tier guys are either playing at expectations (Turner, Smith) or exceeding them (Pollack, Muncy, Taylor). Prior to the season, if you’d have told me the 2nd tier guys – which have tended to be a little up and down in the past – would be performing as they have been, I’d have figured we’d be threatening the Seattle record for most wins. On the flip side, the superstars – the guys that are supposed to be steady, dependable – have been anything but.

When you purportedly have three of them on offense, maybe one of them has a down year once in awhile. All three at once is bizarre, and (aside from the mass injuries) I believe the true culprit of why the team isn’t meeting expectations. There’s a Friedman quote I’ll always remember coming off the Boston W.S. loss (paraphrasing), “we feel we’ve built a deep, balanced, and talented roster filled with good players. What we’re missing are great players.” A few years later, we capture a title based strongly on the play of Belli, Mookie, Seager who all played like superstars last October. Now, they’re nowhere to be found. Bless Turner and Muncy, who are trying their best to replicate the same effect, but it’s not the same thing. Those guys are respected leaders for sure, but I don’t believe they inspire hope or confidence the way the trifecta can. I think it’s that production and presence gap that is our main issue.

If they return to form before the end of the season, then maybe we can make things interesting in the post season. Unfortunately, all three returning to form this season or ever again may be a pipe dream. Seems a pessimistic view, considering they’re all 28 and younger in the prime of their careers. Yet, this level of MVP drop off with Bellinger is unprecedented and Seagers litany of injuries at ages when his body should be the strongest and healthiest it will ever be, is unsettling. I am optimistic with Mookie, but hip injuries are one of the scariest injuries to have. Pragmatically, just having one return to form could make a huge difference. All three is a luxury and a dynasty maker. I think the objective view, is we’re a little like those pre 2019 Dodgers teams void of a great offensive player. A good team that can make some noise in the post season if a lot goes right. A lot going right would be quite the bizarro scenario for this season though.

Great post Jeff. What a great comrpehensive, well researched list of potential pitching help. Thanks for taking the time and effort.

* We have a lot of pitching needs and it dawns on me that it’s compounded by what a dip-shit Bauer is for getting us farther into this situation. I’m not commenting on his quilt or innocence, but on the poor judgement on stuff he has admitted to. Thanks Trevor, I hope it was worth it.

* I actually thought Badger might mention this but he didn’t. But I will. Bottom of 2 Orel talked specifically about Bellinger’s head movement on the pitch, especially the head dropping. He offered a visual comparison to JT. I’m not trying to get folks to think I’m smart but I have been pointing that out for a very long time. In fact I’ve never heard that mentioned by anyone else until last night. Just recently, Badger and I were comparing thoughts on his hitting. Badger has great ideas and focus on his bucket foot and my thoughts on a moving head dip. So, maybe a couple of old coaches really do have some clue on how to hit. The fact that he refuses to change, cut down and go the other way and God forbid, bunt the ball is another story. Anyone remember Mantle’s remedy for breaking a slump?

* Interesting play on the ball over McKinney’s head in right. He picks up the ball looking for a normal cut guy to be in a normal position. Instead due to Muncy playing rover in shallow right, Muncy followed the ball and ended up about 30 feet from McKinney who was so startled he spiked the throw. It looks ridiculous for McKinney but no way would he expect Muncy to be there. Muncy probably has to retreat in that scenario of just run out of the pictures to allow a normal cut-off throw. Just another by-product of a the shift, which I really hate.

* Another interesting call by the announcers on the Bunt rule. Walker jerked he bat back on a bunt attempt for strike 3. The announcers said he didn’t pull his bat back in time. The fact is you don’t have to pull the bat back, ever. The hitter just has to NOT make an attempt to bunt the ball. Where the bat is doesn’t matter. That’s a rule that the announcers and fans get wrong every time.

So I was intrigued by the conversation about how our deep minor league system has offered immediate help to the Big Club due to injuries mostly. Some of the replacements have replaced other replacements. I haven’t taken on the pitchers yet. That’s a bigger job.

So I began with our starting lineup day 1 with CT3, Barnes. McKinstry and Beaty who I figured would be on the opening day roster. I added Pujols now as a platoon starter. I took the rest of the players we’ve seen come up and down as position players and compiled their offensive stats.

We’ve had these replacement players in 133 games. They include 8 guys: Burns, Neuse, Tsutsugo, Raley, Reks, Peters, Sousa and Rios who I didn’t know what to do with. I think we had some hope that one of these guys would step up and seize an opportunity to earn a spot in the near future of draw attention from another organization. It hasn’t happened. Nobody with 10 ASB’s has hit over .200. The combined BA of this group of prospects is .149 in the ig Leagues. Even if you include Beaty and McKinstry’s 72 hits, it’s still .201 for that group. Not 1 has really stepped up. That’s why you see guys get PT from guys like McKinney.

So, I guess we could all speculate some things:

* None of these guys were ready for the Bigs (despite some in their mid 20’s

* It’s too small of a sample size for many and they need more opportunity

* The players were collectively overrated and therefore the depth in the Minors

I actually could have guessed these stats pretty closely from the eye test without actual numbers and doing all the research. You can draw your own conclusions.

I may take on all the pitchers we’ve gone through, all 27 of them, but the eye test works here too. While inconsistent, we’ve had some nice relief pitching, Kj excluded the last 2 nights. The bullpen has been very good considering all the stress of having 2 starters now, bullpen games and the groups being overworked. That will get much worse if we don’t get some guys back, Price and Gonzo stepping up or through a trade, which 2D2 has pointed out. This bullpen game stuff isn’t sustainable. We all know that.

* It will be an interesting decision. Do we go for it sort of blindly or does AF try to keep valuable prospects in a year where breaking the bank may be unwise. I think Mookie is the key answer to that question long term as well as CK.

Sorry for all the rambling.

The Cleveland Guardians of the Galaxy

The Indianapolis Indians have no plans to change their name. They told me that they have had a few Karens complain, but that the support for keeping the name Indians has been overwhelming!

I just bought 5 Rows of 10 Box seats for a company outing for $700 in August. Best ticket in town.

I will call them INDIANS. Nothing wrong with that

Just to show you I’m still here, I will say, losing the last two has hurt….a lot. So I’m glad i am able to chat with my fellow Montreal Canadiens friends about all that is going on with the NHL.

I don’t like to talk much after a loss, especially gut wrenching last inning losses…..I get no comfort in reliving the anguish. But I will add my two cents on last night’s loss while I am here:

I blame Robert’s more than Jansen. KJ threw a lot of pitches the night before and again last night. He should have gotten him out of there with 2 outs and us up 3-2. Also, our 2B, who is not really a 2B, didn’t help, as well as the umps. So, I’m not wanting to crucify KJ over that one. But I will conclude this topic with this….we ain’t winning any playoff series if KJ is our closer.

I do wonder one thing….Did Doc make the call in the WS to not use Jansen to close and to use Urias instead ….or was he following orders? Doc’s use of bullpen guys to me is where he is most found wanting.

Lastly, Cody Bellinger….too bad he couldn’t catch the ball hit over his head. He can’t hit, so I was hoping he could do something spectacular in the outfield. Oh well, I guess not. The dude did it hit it pretty well.

Hopefully I can return tomorrow after a win.

TM

I am not too knowledgeable about the career of Ian Kennedy, but I recall him throwing at our hitters when he was at Arizona. He was with San Diego, other teams. He had potential as a starter which he never reached. Now he is in the bullpen for a bad team. His stats are pretty good, but does not seem to be anything near a top closer status, nor is he that consistent. He would come here and maybe have a few good games, and people would get excited, and then he would have some bad ones. And then we would have him next year, as an excuse for not having a top closer. I don’t want the bargain shopping for a closer, we need someone who can come in and consistently hold a lead in the ninth inning. If we added Kennedy and then maybe Iglesias or Kimbrel, that might do something to save our shot at a championship.

Another Ex-Dodger was DFA’d today. Jose De Leon was once, I believe, in the top ten Dodger prospects not too long ago( 5-6 years ago). He was traded for Logan Forsythe. He has had a lot of injuries so perhaps AF would be interested.

I think Kennedy is a good choice. He’s seasoned, pitching well, hasn’t thrown a lot of innings the last 3 years. Ok. Make it so.

Now, we need a starter.

I think the last three games that Kenley has pitched have probably convinced Andrew, once and for all, that Kenley should not be invited back. With that in mind, unless they decide that Treinen will be next year’s closer, they need to try to get someone now that will also be under control for at least another year.

Kimbrel fits that description, as does Rodriguez of the Pirates, but there are others that we may not have even thought about, who might be available and who now pitch for teams who won’t be competitive for the next two or three years. That’s where you can pay prospects for a closer, depending upon exactly how much AF is willing to give up.

Kennedy and Iglesias are both free agents this year so unless they would be resigned, would not help going forward.

Not sure if this was posted – TB trial gonna drag (not that we’re not surprised) – need get another SP

**The news involving Dodgers pitcher Trevor Bauer and the sexual assault allegations he’s been accused of took a step forward today. Bauer and his representation had their day in court on Friday as they argued his side for the first time in an ex parte hearing. The hearing is to determine whether or not a temporary restraining order obtained by the woman with which he had multiple sexual encounters will stay in force.

What we’ve learned so far is that the hearing is expected to last “two to three days” but those days will be spread out over several weeks. The court was recessed at about 2:10 pm PT on Friday with the hearing set to resume on the morning of August 2nd at 8:30 am. August 3rd and 19th are scheduled as well

I would kick around with Friedman and his staff the idea of trading Bellinger to Seattle for Lewis. And, if Mookie were out for the year, then I would also kick around adding Hanager. The latter could cost the Dodgers another good young player.

It has been assumed that Scherzer would not waive his no-trade clause without getting an extension but his agent recently said that might not be the case. I would think if the Nationals told him they would compete to sign him as a free agent before trading him that Scherzer, knowing he could return to his Washington home in 2022, would be willing to live in a 5 star hotel for a few months in exchange to an opportunity to win a ring. But, if he wants a 2 year contract extension as part of a trade to the Dodgers, all the better. Bye Ruiz.

The Phillies have been rumored to be willing to exceed the payroll penalty line and want rotation and closer help. Welcome Kenley to the City of Brotherly Love.

Lewis

Seager

Turner

Muncy

Hanager

Smith

Lux

Pollock

I’d drive KJ to airport !!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

Tonight’s very weak lineup:

SS Taylor

RF McKinney

3B Turner

C Smith

CF Bellinger

LF Pollock

1B Beaty

2B McKinstry

P Price

In order to acquire a 41 year old Boomstick, Tampa Bay traded two Top 17 prospects in arguably the deepest and best farm system in MLB. RHSP Joe Ryan (age 25) was the Rays #10 and RHSP Drew Strotman (age 24) was the Rays #17. Both were starting at AAA (Durham) and had good numbers. Ryan is now #6 prospect for Twins, while Strotman is #13 prospect. The Rays also received a 25 year old lottery catcher in the deal. That is what the Twins received for Nelson Cruz. The Rays did this early to keep the price down. Apparently the Pads were going hard for Cruz. What will it take to get Jose Berrios? Kenta Maeda? Taylor Rogers? from the Twins? What is Joey Gallo going to cost, who is not a rental? Starling Marte, who is a rental?

Both SF and SD are discussing Joey Gallo. Giants are very interested in Starling Marte.

LAD has 3 consensus Top 100:

Keibert Ruiz – 41 (MLB), 39 (BA), 61 (Fangraphs)

Josiah Gray – 42 (MLB), 52 (BA), 21 (Fangraphs)

Michael Busch – 81 (MLB), 67 (BA), 99 (Fangraphs)

Other Non-consensus (4):

Diego Cartaya – 87 (BA), 115 (Fangraphs)

Bobby Miller – 99 (BA)

Andy Pages – 112 (Fangraphs)

Jacob Amaya – 117 (Fangraphs)

SD has 4 consensus Top 100:

MacKenzie Gore – 6 (MLB), 33 (BA), 30 (Fangraphs) – LHSP

CJ Abrams (8) (MLB), 6 (BA), 4 (Fangraphs) – 2B

Luis Campusano 31 (MLB), 59 (BA), 20 (Fangraphs) – C

Robert Hassell – 46 (MLB), 45 (BA), 76 (Fangraphs) – CF

Other Non-consensus – NONE

SF has 3 consensus Top 100:

Marco Luciano – 12 (MLB), 8 (BA), 6 (Fangraphs) – SS

Joey Bart – 17 (MLB), 25 (BA), 65 (Fangraphs) – C

Heliot Ramos – 63 (MLB), 64 (BA), 46 (Fangraphs) – RF

Other Non-consensus (5):

Hunter Bishop – 65 (MLB) – CF

Seth Corry – 84 (MLB) – LH Middle Inning Reliever

Kyle Harrison – 84 (BA) – LHSP

Luis Matos – 94 (Fangraphs) – CF

Gregory Santos – 96 (Fangraphs) – RH Middle Inning Reliever – Currently suspended by MLB (80 games) for PED

AJ Preller has already intimated that he is not going to move any of San Diego’s top 4. He is willing to package a quantity deal with the next tier of prospects.

Apparently, for SFG, Joey Bart is the most likely top prospect to be available. I do not follow the Giants farm system very well, but they have certainly built up the farm and have a good number of Tier 2 players they can package. Bart is considered a better prospect than Ruiz. His numbers this year at AAA:

.321/.383/.553/.936. Keibert – .293/.367/.582/.949. Extremely comparable. Both play in a hitters park. Bart is rated a potential GG catcher.

IMO, LAD will have to be overwhelmed to part with any of their top 5. But Andy Pages and Jacob Amaya could be in play. Outside of maybe Ryan Pepiot and Miguel Vargas, I would think that all Tier 2 prospects would be in play. The Dodgers (40) have more players with a Fangraphs FV grade of 40 and above than SD (27), or SF (36). So they potentially have more prospect capital they can leverage.

Do the Dodgers need Kody Hoese, Miguel Vargas, Brandon Lewis, and Alex De Jesus, all 3B (although De Jesus is still playing SS)? They have 12 RHP in their top 30. They are not all going to play for LAD. AF needs to be smart, but he does have capital to expend.