Wheelin and Dealin
Earlier in the week, there was a little difference in opinion with respect to the Billy McKinney acquisition. I continue to read how porous LAD’s defense is, and with a gimpy Mookie Betts who may need late-inning defensive help to get him off his hip, a slowing AJ Pollock, questionable defense of Matt Beaty, and the need for CT3 to spend more time in the infield, AF went out and
Earlier in the week, there was a little difference in opinion with respect to the Billy McKinney acquisition. I continue to read how porous LAD’s defense is, and with a gimpy Mookie Betts who may need late-inning defensive help to get him off his hip, a slowing AJ Pollock, questionable defense of Matt Beaty, and the need for CT3 to spend more time in the infield, AF went out and got a decent defensive OF to fill a need THIS YEAR. Carlos Rincon was never going to be anything but a DH, and the Dodgers have multiple MiLB players to fill that role, so AF goes out and spends a lesser AA version of Reks and Raley with minimal defensive skills, to get defensive help. To me it is a win. But apparently, I am in the minority because I do consider defense as critical in winning a championship. I do not know how much of Carlos Rincon any of you have seen, but since I watch a lot of Tulsa games, I have seen a lot of him. He is a DH, and I hope he makes it. He is a good kid. But he is maybe a top 40-50 prospect. Is it too much to spend a 40-50 prospect for help in 2021? I will certainly continue to follow him, as I have Oneil Cruz. In 2017, the Dodgers traded a much higher-rated prospect in Oneil Cruz to acquire LHRP Tony Watson. Watson was not able to get the Dodgers past the Cheaters and he is now struggling with the LAA. OTOH, Cruz is a top 100 prospect with Pittsburgh. Worth the trade? IMO, YES. If the Dodgers find another OF, they can always DFA McKinney.
The Dodgers have three consensus Top 100 prospects: Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, and Michael Busch. Baseball America has LAD with two other top 100 prospects: Diego Cartaya and Bobby Miller. It is not like AF has not traded top 100 prospects before (Yusniel Diaz, Willie Calhoun, Grant Holmes, Jharel Cotton, Frankie Montas). Holmes, Cotton and Montas went together in one trade for Rich Hill and Josh Reddick at the 2016 deadline. Willie Calhoun, AJ Alexy, and Brendon Davis were traded to Texas for Yu Darvish in 2017. Yusniel Diaz and 4 others were traded to Baltimore for Manny Machado at the 2018 deadline. So, AF has previously traded highly rated prospects at the deadline for supposed game-changers, none of which worked out. He may try again.
What will AF do in 2021? Nobody has a clue other than AF and his FO staff. I do not think any GM or President of Baseball Operations has tighter control over rumors than AF. Plus, there are several teams who are still considered contenders for 2021, and they are not going to trade away players who can help them get to the top. As more than a couple of teams have shown, you only need to get to the playoffs to have a chance to win the WS. IMO the sun is setting on Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Chicago; however, apparently only the Cubs realize their 2021 fate. With a little more than a week from the deadline, I think the Reds and Cards will recognize their plight. But will they trade?
Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Washington all seem to believe that they can catch NYM for NL East, but the next week should indicate if those beliefs are dreams or reality. Jacob deGrom is on the IL with forearm tightness that is said to be “improving”. He is set to resume throwing this week. But deGrom has been anything but healthy this year with missed starts because of lat/side issues, flexor tendonitis, and shoulder soreness. NYM is going to need a healthy deGrom to hold off other NL East contenders. All four NL East contenders figure to go hunting in the next 9 days.
The NL schedule Gods did a great job of setting up for a fun next nine days (starting Thursday 07/22/21):
NYM – 3 with Toronto (H), and 5 with Atlanta (H) – Thru 07/29
Philadelphia – 4 with Atlanta (H) and 4 with Nats (H) – Thru 07/29
Atlanta – 4 with Philadelphia (A), and 5 with NYM (A) – Thru 07/29
Nats – 3 with Baltimore (A), and 4 with Philadelphia (A) – Thru 07/29
The AL is also a little muddled (albeit a little less) and will take most of the next nine days to determine buyers and sellers. In the AL East, Boston and Tampa Bay figure to battle to the end. While NYY and Toronto are struggling to stay with the top two, they are in contention for the 2nd Wild Card team, being only 4.0 games behind Oakland for that spot. In the AL Central, CWS is running away with it, but Cleveland is only 5.5 games behind Oakland. In the AL West, Houston and Oakland also figure to battle to the end. Amazingly, Seattle is only 3.5 games behind Oakland and are ahead of NYY, Toronto, and Cleveland for that 2nd WC. IMO Cleveland is not a realistic contender. They just do not have enough personnel to contend with NYY or Toronto or Seattle
AL schedules are also filled with some meaningful games thru 07/29.
Seattle – 4 with Oakland (H) and 3 with Houston (H)
Toronto – Red Sox 3 with NYM (A), and 4 with Red Sox (A)
NYY – Philadelphia 4 with Boston (A), and 3 with Tampa Bay (A)
I cannot see AF making a significant deal while so many teams are undecided as to where they are headed. They do not want to miss out on a potential game-changer. Traditionally, AF looks for sheer rentals (Hill, Reddick, Darvish, Machado), although he did acquire Alex Wood in 2015 with multiple years of control. Acquiring multiple years of control requires a better return of prospects, which AF is reluctant to do. There are no such things as untouchables, but for LAD, besides their five top 100 players, Miguel Vargas and Ryan Pepiot figure to be in that class, especially for rentals.
I am not like some here. I see holes in the Dodgers that need to be plugged if they are going to win another championship. Pitching, both starting and relief, need to be addressed. There has been a lot of talk regarding starting pitching. I think they need one SP who can go deeper in the game than Gonsolin or Price, and be a legit #4 in October. We have no idea how Clayton Kershaw will pitch in August or September, much less October. Right now the only two SP that can be counted on are Walker Buehler and Julio Urias. How well Urias holds up is also open for debate?
Max Scherzer (RHSP) is a rental and his name comes up a lot. Much will depend on the next nine days to even know if he will be available, but even if he is, it will be hard for me to see the Dodgers making that trade. Scherzer has a no-trade clause, and he is not going to waive it without getting something in return. Too much is unknown for 2022 and 2023 for the Dodgers right now. Regardless, Max has 7 years (2022-2028) of $15MM annual deferred contract payments that would be assumed by the trading team. Of course, Washington can pay that down quite a bit, but then the prospect asking price will escalate.
Luis Castillo (RHSP) is not going anywhere. Neither is German Marquez (RHSP) . Pitchers with year(s) of control beyond 2021 who may be available include:
Kyle Hendricks (RHSP) – $14MM for 2022 and 2023, with a $16MM team option in 2024. While I do like Hendricks, it is hard to be convinced that a pitcher who throws 87 can sustain his record for two-three more years. I think the Cubs will want more than AF is willing to spend.
Kyle Gibson (RHSP) – $7MM is owed for 2022, but with an AAV of closer to $9MM. He is certainly affordable and is having a good year. Will he in 2022? That thought process will go into the prospect cost calculation. I am not sure what he is doing in 2021 is sustainable in 2022. Considering that he has allowed 13 runs in 11.1 IP his last two outings, I am not sure it is sustainable in 2021.
Jose Berrios (RHSP) – Is currently earning $6.1MM in arbitration and is pitching decently in 2021, but not enough for third-year arbitration to skyrocket. His prospect capital will be exceedingly high, as Berrios has the potential for top of the rotation. He is an innings eater who has averaged 6.0 IP this year. For 2023.. He has a plus fastball, but his secondary pitch (curve is not). His third pitch (change) does have swing and miss capabilities.
Matthew Boyd (LHSP) – Is currently earning $6.5MM in arbitration and is pitching decently in 2021, but not enough for third-year arbitration to skyrocket, and not as well as Berrios. This is his first year with a sub 4.00 ERA. He is not an innings eater. I am not a fan, but he does seem to come up in deadline trade conversations every year.
Wade Miley (LHSP) – I include him in this group because he has a very favorable team option of $10MM for 2022. Miley is having a fine year, but he is 34. His prospect capital should not be onerous. He is averaging 6.0 IP per start, so he qualifies as an innings eater in today’s definition. Not a big strikeout pitcher, but does not walk a lot either. He is having his best SO/W ration since his rookie season in 2012. He has allowed 7 HRs while playing his home games in Cincinnati.
Sonny Gray (RHSP) – Gray is owed $10.2MM for 2022 with potential escalators, and a club option of $12MM. He is averaging a little over 5 IP, so he does not remotely go deep into games. He is a strike-out pitcher that LAD seems to like. He has 86 K in 66.2 IP. While his ERA is acceptable at 3.65, his 1.350 WHIP in 2021….not ideal at all. He was a fantastic postseason pitcher for Oakland in 2013, not so much for NYY in 2017. Question remains…Can he pitch under big city lights? He didn’t for NYY. If the LAD can get the Oakland Sonny Gray, they would be very happy.
But if AF is more true to prior year’s transactions, then he will be looking for a true rental. Of those, the ones that are being most widely discussed are Jon Gray (RHSP) , Tyler Anderson (LHSP), and Michael Pineda (RHSP). Of the three, I greatly prefer Jon Gray who is having a good year. He seemingly has a good year, followed by a not-so-good year, every other year. In 2021 it is a good year. Since he is a rental, who cares if it is sustainable after 2021. However, I am not sure that Colorado will deal with LAD without a Dodger overpay. I am not a fan, but I would not be at all surprised if the Dodgers dealt with Pittsburgh for Anderson. The prospect capital will be acceptable, but he really is a below-average pitcher, and I would be disappointed if AF dealt for him.
I like Wade Miley and Jose Berrios the most of the possible available starting pitchers. Berrios will be waaaaaayyyy too costly. Miley could be the 2021 version of Lance Lynn.
I recognize that some might include a pair of rentals…Adam Wainwright (RHSP) and Danny Duffy (LHSP). Wainwright turns 40 at the end of August and has had a couple of injury years (2015, 2017, and 2019). I have a very tough time envisioning him out of a Cardinals uni. I could be very wrong, but I do not see him leaving St. Louis. Duffy is another with a no-trade clause who has been with KC his entire career. He has expressed his desire to stay with KC for his career. He is from Goleta, CA, so he may accept a move to a West Coast team. However, he is currently on the IL for the 2nd time this season with a left flexor strain. I doubt that the Dodgers need another injured pitcher in their arsenal.
With respect to relievers, Craig Kimbrel (RHRP) is expensive ($$$ and prospects), but he could be the answer. After him, there are a number that AF will check into, but I have no clue as to who he is interested in.
Taylor Rogers (LHRP) was having a good year until July 11. I liken him to a former Twin, Ryan Pressly, who had a very good 2017, and a similar start to 2018 as Rogers has had before Ryan was dealt to Houston. He was basically unhittable in 2018 after the trade to Houston. Likewise, Rogers had a very good 2019 and is having an okay 2021 (I ignore 2020). To me, he is a LH version of Ryan Pressly. For Eric’s benefit, Pressly’s career OPS against was mediocre with Minnesota, but he turned it around with Houston. His career OPS vs LHH and RHH fits Eric’s algorithm. I think Rogers can do the same if he is moved. He is controlled thru 2022.
Richard Rodriguez (RHRP) looks to be available but could be expensive. Ben Cherington is a much better GM than Neal Huntington was. He will not be cheated.
The Cubs’ Andrew Chafin (LHRP) is having an excellent 2021 campaign (1.37 ERA, 0.737 WHIP, 37 K vs 10 BB in 39.1 IP). Chafin and Chicago have a 2022 mutual option ($5.25MM or $500K buyout). Another Cubs reliever that is having a good year is Keegan Thompson (RHRP). He is a 26-year-old rookie and is having a solid season. I doubt that Chicago makes him available.
If NYY decides to sell, I will go back to my old standby Chad Green (RHRP). Like Rogers, he is controlled thru 2022.
Ian Kennedy (RHRP) is putting up another solid year for Texas. He is a rental.
Now that Kendall Graveman (RHRP) has fully converted to relief, he is having a career year for Seattle and is a rental. However, Seattle is still in contention and may still become July 30.
If LAA decides to sell, they will look to move Raisel Iglesias (RHRP). He is a rental. So so ERA (3.40), but a solid WHIP (0.898). But where he looks to shine is 65 K vs. 8 BB in 42.1 IP. Since May 8: Iglesias has pitched 28.1 innings with a 2.23 ERA and a sub 1.000 WHIP. He has 52 K, 7 BB, and 18 hits allowed. Opponents are hitting .158/.207/.333/.540. He has 12 inherited runners and only 2 have scored. He has 15 saves against 1 blown save. He is in the final year of a 3 year $24.125MM contract. 2021 contract is $9.125MM.
If Atlanta decides to sell, look for Will Smith (LHRP) to be available. Smith is under contract thru 2022 and has a 2023 team option ($13MM or $1MM buyout). Expensive, but the prospect payoff should be acceptable to AF, but his contract may be too costly for LAD.
Would Baltimore look to possibly move Tanner Scott (LHRP)? More likely Paul Fry (LHRP).
Richard Bleier (LHRP) is having a good year for Miami with a 0.884 WHIP and 28K vs. 2 BB in 37.1 IP. Very impressive SO/W ratio of 14.0.
Relievers are very fickle, and outside of Craig Kimbrel, there is not a sure thing. But there are a handful of pitchers who could surprise. I know Mark and a couple of others like Garrett Cleavinger, but with his 1.59 WHIP he is not someone I want SD to see coming down the stretch. Same with Scott Alexander and Alex Vesia. Vesia may be good down the road, but this is a run for another championship, and I do not think he is ready for that pressure. He appears to be a keeper, but probably not before 2022. Jimmy Nelson and Corey Knebel will be added to the roster in the near future. Brusdar Graterol will need to wait until 2022 to make a lasting impression. He throws hard. Now he needs to learn how to pitch. That leaves two other unknowns coming down the stretch. How will Bickford and Sherfy respond to the pressure of a reigning WS champion looking to repeat?
KJ, Treinen, Kelly, Nelson, Knebel, and VGon look to be set. But KJ seems to be leaking back towards the inconsistent and unreliable 2018-2020 KJ. Can he turn it around????? 5 blown saves is not a good sign for a team looking to repeat. VGon may still have plantar fasciitis. If he truly had plantar fasciitis, it is painful and it does not just go away. It can take months to heal. Nelson has a lumbar strain. He had lumbar surgery last year. Will his back ever be able to take a heavy reliever workload? Lat injuries also have a tendency to linger. Will Knebel return as AF hopes? There are just too many questions in the LAD bullpen to be a WS caliber pen.
There is a lot to ponder over the next nine days. AF figures to make a move (or two or three). But we may have to wait until July 30 at 1:00 PM (PT) to find out. There are just too many undecided teams right now.
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Discussion (211)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Bauer’s hearing postponed until August 2nd.
I t appears that the cure for Belli is to face Chi Chi Gonzalez.
A little more than a week ago the narrative was that it was unfair that Jansen was not in the ASG, some put the numbers and made comparisons with Melancon and that Jansen deserved it more, today after a little more than a week some want him to be go to Curaçao, there is no doubt that baseball is a very difficult game, baseball is hard !!!
Quite a bit of chatter about NYY interest in Trevor Story. Trevor Story to NYY just makes too much sense.
Nunez and Graterol recalled, Muncy to paternity list, and Cleavinger optioned back to OKC.
Brandon Lewis another home run tonight with the Loons. That is seven in his last eight games
Jonny Deluca debuted with the Loons tonight. Has a single and home run in his first three at bats.
James Outman debuted with the Drillers. Has a two-run single in his first AA at bat.
Article in ESPN.com about how badly the Angels have been treating their minor leaguers. Conditions so bad, some players have retired or are contemplating retirement. One player said that 6 of them were living in a 3 bedroom apt, sleeping on the floor on mattress’s. Another said the pay was so low that they could not eat right and some players lost as much as 5 pounds in a week.
Kenley Jansen is still a good closer compared to most out there at the moment, what happens is that we compare him with the old Kenley of a few years ago when he was the best and that is unfair even for Kenley himself, that was a HOF level closer.
It will be difficult to find someone of great quality to replace him for the remainder of the season. When they hired Knebel it was obvious that in the course of the season he was going to take over the role, it was insurance, and there is always the possibility of Treinen, I prefer that to bring Kennedy, Kennedy is not the solution to the problem.
I’m not concerned with pitching or offense, what concerns me is defense and the inability of pitchers to avoid the SB which is also part of the defensive game.
In order to acquire a 41 year old Boomstick, Tampa Bay traded two Top 17 prospects in arguably the deepest and best farm system in MLB. RHSP Joe Ryan (age 25) was the Rays #10 and RHSP Drew Strotman (age 24) was the Rays #17. Both were starting at AAA (Durham) and had good numbers. Ryan is now #6 prospect for Twins, while Strotman is #13 prospect. The Rays also received a 25 year old lottery catcher in the deal. That is what the Twins received for Nelson Cruz. The Rays did this early to keep the price down. Apparently the Pads were going hard for Cruz. What will it take to get Jose Berrios? Kenta Maeda? Taylor Rogers? from the Twins? What is Joey Gallo going to cost, who is not a rental? Starling Marte, who is a rental?
Both SF and SD are discussing Joey Gallo. Giants are very interested in Starling Marte.
LAD has 3 consensus Top 100:
Keibert Ruiz – 41 (MLB), 39 (BA), 61 (Fangraphs)
Josiah Gray – 42 (MLB), 52 (BA), 21 (Fangraphs)
Michael Busch – 81 (MLB), 67 (BA), 99 (Fangraphs)
Other Non-consensus (4):
Diego Cartaya – 87 (BA), 115 (Fangraphs)
Bobby Miller – 99 (BA)
Andy Pages – 112 (Fangraphs)
Jacob Amaya – 117 (Fangraphs)
SD has 4 consensus Top 100:
MacKenzie Gore – 6 (MLB), 33 (BA), 30 (Fangraphs) – LHSP
CJ Abrams (8) (MLB), 6 (BA), 4 (Fangraphs) – 2B
Luis Campusano 31 (MLB), 59 (BA), 20 (Fangraphs) – C
Robert Hassell – 46 (MLB), 45 (BA), 76 (Fangraphs) – CF
Other Non-consensus – NONE
SF has 3 consensus Top 100:
Marco Luciano – 12 (MLB), 8 (BA), 6 (Fangraphs) – SS
Joey Bart – 17 (MLB), 25 (BA), 65 (Fangraphs) – C
Heliot Ramos – 63 (MLB), 64 (BA), 46 (Fangraphs) – RF
Other Non-consensus (5):
Hunter Bishop – 65 (MLB) – CF
Seth Corry – 84 (MLB) – LH Middle Inning Reliever
Kyle Harrison – 84 (BA) – LHSP
Luis Matos – 94 (Fangraphs) – CF
Gregory Santos – 96 (Fangraphs) – RH Middle Inning Reliever – Currently suspended by MLB (80 games) for PED
AJ Preller has already intimated that he is not going to move any of San Diego’s top 4. He is willing to package a quantity deal with the next tier of prospects.
Apparently, for SFG, Joey Bart is the most likely top prospect to be available. I do not follow the Giants farm system very well, but they have certainly built up the farm and have a good number of Tier 2 players they can package. Bart is considered a better prospect than Ruiz. His numbers this year at AAA:
.321/.383/.553/.936. Keibert – .293/.367/.582/.949. Extremely comparable. Both play in a hitters park. Bart is rated a potential GG catcher.
IMO, LAD will have to be overwhelmed to part with any of their top 5. But Andy Pages and Jacob Amaya could be in play. Outside of maybe Ryan Pepiot and Miguel Vargas, I would think that all Tier 2 prospects would be in play. The Dodgers (40) have more players with a Fangraphs FV grade of 40 and above than SD (27), or SF (36). So they potentially have more prospect capital they can leverage.
Do the Dodgers need Kody Hoese, Miguel Vargas, Brandon Lewis, and Alex De Jesus, all 3B (although De Jesus is still playing SS)? They have 12 RHP in their top 30. They are not all going to play for LAD. AF needs to be smart, but he does have capital to expend.
Tonight’s very weak lineup:
SS Taylor
RF McKinney
3B Turner
C Smith
CF Bellinger
LF Pollock
1B Beaty
2B McKinstry
P Price
I’d drive KJ to airport !!! 🙂 🙂 🙂
I would kick around with Friedman and his staff the idea of trading Bellinger to Seattle for Lewis. And, if Mookie were out for the year, then I would also kick around adding Hanager. The latter could cost the Dodgers another good young player.
It has been assumed that Scherzer would not waive his no-trade clause without getting an extension but his agent recently said that might not be the case. I would think if the Nationals told him they would compete to sign him as a free agent before trading him that Scherzer, knowing he could return to his Washington home in 2022, would be willing to live in a 5 star hotel for a few months in exchange to an opportunity to win a ring. But, if he wants a 2 year contract extension as part of a trade to the Dodgers, all the better. Bye Ruiz.
The Phillies have been rumored to be willing to exceed the payroll penalty line and want rotation and closer help. Welcome Kenley to the City of Brotherly Love.
Lewis
Seager
Turner
Muncy
Hanager
Smith
Lux
Pollock
Not sure if this was posted – TB trial gonna drag (not that we’re not surprised) – need get another SP
**The news involving Dodgers pitcher Trevor Bauer and the sexual assault allegations he’s been accused of took a step forward today. Bauer and his representation had their day in court on Friday as they argued his side for the first time in an ex parte hearing. The hearing is to determine whether or not a temporary restraining order obtained by the woman with which he had multiple sexual encounters will stay in force.
What we’ve learned so far is that the hearing is expected to last “two to three days” but those days will be spread out over several weeks. The court was recessed at about 2:10 pm PT on Friday with the hearing set to resume on the morning of August 2nd at 8:30 am. August 3rd and 19th are scheduled as well
I think the last three games that Kenley has pitched have probably convinced Andrew, once and for all, that Kenley should not be invited back. With that in mind, unless they decide that Treinen will be next year’s closer, they need to try to get someone now that will also be under control for at least another year.
Kimbrel fits that description, as does Rodriguez of the Pirates, but there are others that we may not have even thought about, who might be available and who now pitch for teams who won’t be competitive for the next two or three years. That’s where you can pay prospects for a closer, depending upon exactly how much AF is willing to give up.
Kennedy and Iglesias are both free agents this year so unless they would be resigned, would not help going forward.
I think Kennedy is a good choice. He’s seasoned, pitching well, hasn’t thrown a lot of innings the last 3 years. Ok. Make it so.
Now, we need a starter.
Another Ex-Dodger was DFA’d today. Jose De Leon was once, I believe, in the top ten Dodger prospects not too long ago( 5-6 years ago). He was traded for Logan Forsythe. He has had a lot of injuries so perhaps AF would be interested.
I am not too knowledgeable about the career of Ian Kennedy, but I recall him throwing at our hitters when he was at Arizona. He was with San Diego, other teams. He had potential as a starter which he never reached. Now he is in the bullpen for a bad team. His stats are pretty good, but does not seem to be anything near a top closer status, nor is he that consistent. He would come here and maybe have a few good games, and people would get excited, and then he would have some bad ones. And then we would have him next year, as an excuse for not having a top closer. I don’t want the bargain shopping for a closer, we need someone who can come in and consistently hold a lead in the ninth inning. If we added Kennedy and then maybe Iglesias or Kimbrel, that might do something to save our shot at a championship.
Just to show you I’m still here, I will say, losing the last two has hurt….a lot. So I’m glad i am able to chat with my fellow Montreal Canadiens friends about all that is going on with the NHL.
I don’t like to talk much after a loss, especially gut wrenching last inning losses…..I get no comfort in reliving the anguish. But I will add my two cents on last night’s loss while I am here:
I blame Robert’s more than Jansen. KJ threw a lot of pitches the night before and again last night. He should have gotten him out of there with 2 outs and us up 3-2. Also, our 2B, who is not really a 2B, didn’t help, as well as the umps. So, I’m not wanting to crucify KJ over that one. But I will conclude this topic with this….we ain’t winning any playoff series if KJ is our closer.
I do wonder one thing….Did Doc make the call in the WS to not use Jansen to close and to use Urias instead ….or was he following orders? Doc’s use of bullpen guys to me is where he is most found wanting.
Lastly, Cody Bellinger….too bad he couldn’t catch the ball hit over his head. He can’t hit, so I was hoping he could do something spectacular in the outfield. Oh well, I guess not. The dude did it hit it pretty well.
Hopefully I can return tomorrow after a win.
TM
I will call them INDIANS. Nothing wrong with that
The Indianapolis Indians have no plans to change their name. They told me that they have had a few Karens complain, but that the support for keeping the name Indians has been overwhelming!
I just bought 5 Rows of 10 Box seats for a company outing for $700 in August. Best ticket in town.
The Cleveland Guardians of the Galaxy
Great post Jeff. What a great comrpehensive, well researched list of potential pitching help. Thanks for taking the time and effort.
* We have a lot of pitching needs and it dawns on me that it’s compounded by what a dip-shit Bauer is for getting us farther into this situation. I’m not commenting on his quilt or innocence, but on the poor judgement on stuff he has admitted to. Thanks Trevor, I hope it was worth it.
* I actually thought Badger might mention this but he didn’t. But I will. Bottom of 2 Orel talked specifically about Bellinger’s head movement on the pitch, especially the head dropping. He offered a visual comparison to JT. I’m not trying to get folks to think I’m smart but I have been pointing that out for a very long time. In fact I’ve never heard that mentioned by anyone else until last night. Just recently, Badger and I were comparing thoughts on his hitting. Badger has great ideas and focus on his bucket foot and my thoughts on a moving head dip. So, maybe a couple of old coaches really do have some clue on how to hit. The fact that he refuses to change, cut down and go the other way and God forbid, bunt the ball is another story. Anyone remember Mantle’s remedy for breaking a slump?
* Interesting play on the ball over McKinney’s head in right. He picks up the ball looking for a normal cut guy to be in a normal position. Instead due to Muncy playing rover in shallow right, Muncy followed the ball and ended up about 30 feet from McKinney who was so startled he spiked the throw. It looks ridiculous for McKinney but no way would he expect Muncy to be there. Muncy probably has to retreat in that scenario of just run out of the pictures to allow a normal cut-off throw. Just another by-product of a the shift, which I really hate.
* Another interesting call by the announcers on the Bunt rule. Walker jerked he bat back on a bunt attempt for strike 3. The announcers said he didn’t pull his bat back in time. The fact is you don’t have to pull the bat back, ever. The hitter just has to NOT make an attempt to bunt the ball. Where the bat is doesn’t matter. That’s a rule that the announcers and fans get wrong every time.
So I was intrigued by the conversation about how our deep minor league system has offered immediate help to the Big Club due to injuries mostly. Some of the replacements have replaced other replacements. I haven’t taken on the pitchers yet. That’s a bigger job.
So I began with our starting lineup day 1 with CT3, Barnes. McKinstry and Beaty who I figured would be on the opening day roster. I added Pujols now as a platoon starter. I took the rest of the players we’ve seen come up and down as position players and compiled their offensive stats.
We’ve had these replacement players in 133 games. They include 8 guys: Burns, Neuse, Tsutsugo, Raley, Reks, Peters, Sousa and Rios who I didn’t know what to do with. I think we had some hope that one of these guys would step up and seize an opportunity to earn a spot in the near future of draw attention from another organization. It hasn’t happened. Nobody with 10 ASB’s has hit over .200. The combined BA of this group of prospects is .149 in the ig Leagues. Even if you include Beaty and McKinstry’s 72 hits, it’s still .201 for that group. Not 1 has really stepped up. That’s why you see guys get PT from guys like McKinney.
So, I guess we could all speculate some things:
* None of these guys were ready for the Bigs (despite some in their mid 20’s
* It’s too small of a sample size for many and they need more opportunity
* The players were collectively overrated and therefore the depth in the Minors
I actually could have guessed these stats pretty closely from the eye test without actual numbers and doing all the research. You can draw your own conclusions.
I may take on all the pitchers we’ve gone through, all 27 of them, but the eye test works here too. While inconsistent, we’ve had some nice relief pitching, Kj excluded the last 2 nights. The bullpen has been very good considering all the stress of having 2 starters now, bullpen games and the groups being overworked. That will get much worse if we don’t get some guys back, Price and Gonzo stepping up or through a trade, which 2D2 has pointed out. This bullpen game stuff isn’t sustainable. We all know that.
* It will be an interesting decision. Do we go for it sort of blindly or does AF try to keep valuable prospects in a year where breaking the bank may be unwise. I think Mookie is the key answer to that question long term as well as CK.
Sorry for all the rambling.
What a weird, wacky season so far. There’s some bizarro world traits to it. The 2nd tier guys are either playing at expectations (Turner, Smith) or exceeding them (Pollack, Muncy, Taylor). Prior to the season, if you’d have told me the 2nd tier guys – which have tended to be a little up and down in the past – would be performing as they have been, I’d have figured we’d be threatening the Seattle record for most wins. On the flip side, the superstars – the guys that are supposed to be steady, dependable – have been anything but.
When you purportedly have three of them on offense, maybe one of them has a down year once in awhile. All three at once is bizarre, and (aside from the mass injuries) I believe the true culprit of why the team isn’t meeting expectations. There’s a Friedman quote I’ll always remember coming off the Boston W.S. loss (paraphrasing), “we feel we’ve built a deep, balanced, and talented roster filled with good players. What we’re missing are great players.” A few years later, we capture a title based strongly on the play of Belli, Mookie, Seager who all played like superstars last October. Now, they’re nowhere to be found. Bless Turner and Muncy, who are trying their best to replicate the same effect, but it’s not the same thing. Those guys are respected leaders for sure, but I don’t believe they inspire hope or confidence the way the trifecta can. I think it’s that production and presence gap that is our main issue.
If they return to form before the end of the season, then maybe we can make things interesting in the post season. Unfortunately, all three returning to form this season or ever again may be a pipe dream. Seems a pessimistic view, considering they’re all 28 and younger in the prime of their careers. Yet, this level of MVP drop off with Bellinger is unprecedented and Seagers litany of injuries at ages when his body should be the strongest and healthiest it will ever be, is unsettling. I am optimistic with Mookie, but hip injuries are one of the scariest injuries to have. Pragmatically, just having one return to form could make a huge difference. All three is a luxury and a dynasty maker. I think the objective view, is we’re a little like those pre 2019 Dodgers teams void of a great offensive player. A good team that can make some noise in the post season if a lot goes right. A lot going right would be quite the bizarro scenario for this season though.
Mets To Acquire Rich Hill From Rays
By Steve Adams | July 23, 2021 at 11:41am CDT
The Mets have reached a deal to acquire lefty Rich Hill in a trade with the Rays, tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Mets will send veteran righty Tommy Hunter (currently on the injured list) and minor league catcher/infielder Matt Dyer to Tampa Bay in the swap (Twitter links). MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo first reported (via Twitter) that the two sides had engaged in discussions, and Fansided’s Robert Murray reported that a deal was close. The trade is pending medical reviews of the players involved.
Just read an interesting story on ESPN .com. MLB will begin testing a pitcher-catcher communication device in the California league next month. It would make hand signals obsolete and lessen the chance of stealing signs or location. The device will be worn on the catchers wrist, like the little card they use to decide how to pitch a certain hitter, and will be available in Spanish and English versions. The pitchers receiver is designed to fit in the liner in his cap. Will be very interesting to see how this works. MLB thinks it will shorten the time between pitches, and speed up the game.