What s Next For the Dodgers and Matt Kemp?
Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words. In the case of Matt Kemp, it is interesting to see the progression or degradation of his game as his body increased in size, his production decreased in direct proportion. 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2016 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3yXQekcdhxU 2017 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF2LFHJkgYQ I can t get link to work Most Dodger fans have strong opinions about Kemp and many are not good. I have witnessed
Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words. In the case of Matt Kemp, it is interesting to see the progression or degradation of his game – as his body increased in size, his production decreased in direct proportion.
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2016
2017
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF2LFHJkgYQ – I can’t get link to work
Most Dodger fans have strong opinions about Kemp… and many are not good. I have witnessed the surly side of Matt Kemp, but I have also witnessed how gracious he can be. At one time, Matt and Andre Ethier were both prima donnas and difficult in the lockerroom… not all the time, but at times. You had to be careful around them because seemingly anything could set this off. Andre got married and had a family and that tends to mellow a guy out. Matt is a single, free spirit still lamenting that he should have won the 2011 MVP over that Cheating Ryan Braun.
As a human being, Matt may not have been as good as some thought, and conversely, he may not be as bad as some think. Like lots of things in life, the truth lies somewhere in-between. Matt Kemp has summarily been dismissed by three different teams. His defensive metrics are atrocious and his batting style is simply “all-or-nothing.”
Matt Kemp is an enigma. Part charm, part venom, part talent, part sulk. I can give you about $43 million reason why Andrew Friedman hopes that Matt Kemp has something left to prove. There are $43 million reasons why the Dodgers hope Matt Kemp has a huge chip on his shoulder. At one time, the Dodgers were almost Matt Kemp’s team. In fact, they could have been, had he acted with more maturity. You know, the kind of maturity exhibited by Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger and Chris Taylor. But, that’s all water under the dam now. Matt Kemp is here and so are the Dodgers.
Can they both make it work? It’s going to be as difficult as herding cats. Risk verses reward. The risk is great, but the reward could also be. Matt Kemp is fat and out of shape and very likely has some physical issues with his hips. This all could be for naught. Or, it could be for something. Andrew Friedman said he was very honest and direct with Matt Kemp. While I do not know what was said, I do think it went something like this:
“Matt, we traded for you because we needed to dump salary and we were able to do that when we acquired you. Now, this can go down in history as a salary dump and at some point we may trade or release you… or it could be so much more than that. Matt, this is your opportunity at redemption. It’s your chance to show Los Angeles and the World that Matt Kemp really is something. This is your chance to cement your legacy. It’s all up to you, not me.
It all starts with your diet, health and intensity of training. You weigh,like 245 right now, but back in the day, you were a lean, gazelle-like machine. Can you dump the weight, increase the conditioning and train like you never have for years… if ever? Can you agree to play LF, hit #6 and just give it your all no matter what?… because if you do, not only can you do well, but you might approach your MVP level of a few years ago.
Check your ego at the door and leave it all on the field. You are only 33 and have a couple more good years in your body… maybe you can retire as a Dodger and with a couple of World Championships. Do you have the drive, desire and determination to reach out to be what your talent dictates? I’d like you to be part of our Championship team, but it’s up to you. Can you get on board and behind this? Can you be a part of this? It’s your decision…”
Matt Kemp could screw this whole thing up. That I readily admit. Right about now, no one else wants him. NO ONE! But, when you get lemons, maybe it’s best to make lemonade. I doubt there will be any middle ground. With Matt Kemp, it will be boon or bust! I’m hoping for the boon, but am prepared for the bust! He could be released during Spring Training or be an amazing comeback candidate. I don’t have an opinion as to what will play out, but I am hopeful.
Barring a miracle, Matt Kemp will be on the Dodgers roster until late March. The Dodger have other business at hand, namely… maybe trading for Gerrit Cole. I think Yu Darvish will cost too much. Grandal and Pederson will have to be moved to make that happen (that will save about $10 million). Would the Pirates trade Cole for Grandal, Pederson and Alvarez? Do they have to include Verdugo?
What if Matt Kemp showed up in Spring Training at 205 with a new attitude and desire? What if he hit #6 and Toles or Kike served as his backup? What if he hit .270 with 35 HR? What if?
I don’t think Kemp can wreck this team. I don’t think Doc, Clayton, Cody, Corey, JT, Kenley or Rich Hill will tolerate a bad actor.
Matt Kemp: THIS IS YOUR LAST BEST CHANCE!
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Discussion (65)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Zach Britton ruptured Achilles. Out six months.
Wonder if the Red Sox would trade Hanley Ramirez for Kemp? Salaries and years match well and Kemp would be able to DH and play some LF for Sox and Hanley could play some 1B and PH some for the Dodgers against LHP. Other possibilities to trade for that match up with Kemp’s contract would be Mauer from the Twins and Martin from the Jays. Once discussions open, you never know what could occur. Would love the Dodgers acquiring Stroman from Jays because of the way he pitched last Spring in the Classic.
Getting Cole would be a great get for the Dodgers especially if coupled with McCutcheon. Would suggest packaging Maeda or Ryu, Grandal, Alverez, Peterson, and Baez as a starting point. Hate trading this much talent and good contracts but you have to give to make a deal. Would even include Kike since his ability to play multiple positions and kill LHP could attract interest.
I understand the intrigue of Matt Kemp, but I also understand the intrigue some have in drugs. Not me, I just say NO, just as I would with Kemp. Kemp is a high risk, medium reward (ceiling) at this point in his career. FAZ has stayed away from players like Kemp. Kemp is not the RH hitting answer in LF for LAD. Kike’ is better than Kemp against LHP, and I am not blocking Toles/Joc/Verdugo for Kemp.
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I heard FAZ when they said their overwhelming goal for this off-season was to get below the luxury tax threshold. There were about 1,000 blogs written all over the internet about the Dodgers as the favorite to get Stanton. All the while, FAZ kept saying to those who would listen, no we are not in unless the Marlins take A-Gon, Kazmir, and McCarthy. I heard FAZ say they were much more likely to trade for their needs than to sign any FA. Now what I am hearing FAZ say is that they will either trade or DFA Kemp. I believed FAZ before, so I will believe them this time as well. Kemp will not go to ST with the team. All it depends on is how much on the dollar they are willing to spend to move Kemp. Maybe the pundits are correct and there is not much interest, and that Kemp’s trade value is zero. I do not believe that it is zero, but it may be that the Dodgers have to take back 80%-90% of his contract, which is better than DFA.
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Why would a team take Kemp at $2M – $4M, rather than try to sign him at MLB minimum once he is DFA? He could be somewhere between a .5 and 1.5 oWAR. An AL team might be willing to take that risk, and would not have to spend a lot of brain cells trying to woo him if he is a FA. Regardless as to what he thinks, there is virtually no chance he can find an NL taker. He has to play in LF in the NL, and that evaporates any positive oWAR, and puts him in a negative WAR. No NL team wants that. His only chance is to the AL as a DH.
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I have long been an advocate to get Gerrit Cole. I have no idea what it would take to get him, but as long as Walker Buehler is not involved I believe FAZ will listen. Cole has two years team control so he will be expensive. I do not think Cole gets moved as long as McCutcheon is a Pirate. If McCutcheon is moved and the re-tooling begins. Austin Meadows is promoted and immediately slotted in CF, with Marte in LF and Polanco in RF. Adam Frazier remains as the Pirates version of Kike’, and Jose Osuna is the #5 OF RH bat off the bench. The Pirates are said to be interested in Clint Frazier from the Yankees in a potential Cole trade to NYY. If they are interested in Frazier, then the Pirates would be interested in Verdugo. Verdugo is virtually the same player as Austin Meadows. Meadows is a little faster, but Verdugo has a much better arm. Neither one are big power bats. I can see the Pirates having interest in Verdugo, and they could then flip Polanco, to pick up a young 3B to take over after Freese leaves. With Meadows, Bell, Verdugo, Marte, and all of the young pitching they have, they could be in contention as early as 2019.
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There were two trade scenarios I thought were very interesting. One was penned by Dustin Nosler, and even he believes that it is extremely unlikely to happen. Yasmani Grandal to the DBacks for AJ Pollock. The DBacks desperately need a catcher, and everyone knows how much Greinke loves to pitch to Grandal, and they have Chris Owings who could play CF. The Dodgers could get that defensive CF (and RH bat) that I have wanted. Both will be FA next year, and both have comparable projected arbitration salaries. While all of the accolades go to Goldy (deservedly so), there are many that believe that Pollock is the heart and soul of that team.
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That trade would move Taylor to 2B, and that would open up another trade proposal I read (I do not remember where, but it was not mine). Logan Forsythe to the Mets for Matt Harvey. The Mets desperately need a 2B, and Harvey is expendable. Forsythe is the more steady and reliable player, but Harvey has a higher ceiling (and lower floor). Again both players are FA next year, and Forsythe is a more expensive player salary wise. This is one of those trades that would drive the anti-FAZ crowd crazy. Another injury prone pitcher? Haven’t the Dodgers had enough of those? Harvey is a top of the rotation pitcher in his walk year. IMO, I love the potential of Matt Harvey. He could absolutely implode, and that risk is high. But what if he regains his early potential? Kershaw/Harvey/ Hill/Wood/Maeda. And they still have the prospect capital to go after Cole or Archer. I do not know what it would take, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. I would not trade Forsythe unless the Dodgers get a good defensive CF so Taylor can move to 2B.
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Can you imagine a lineup of:
1B – Bellinger
2B – Taylor
3B – JT
SS – Seager
LF – Kike/Toles/Joc
CF – Pollock
RF – Puig
C – Barnes
Rotation – Kershaw/Cole (or Archer)/Harvey/Hill/Wood – Maeda goes to the bullpen where he becomes a RH version of Andrew Miller.
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That would be an awesome lineup, but the rotation would be the best in MLB.
I am not a Kemp fan. I agree with all of the if’s you guys put forward. The one and only chance Kemp has is the honesty of Friedman and Doc. I think they are honest with every ball player and the players love it. Look at what Agon and Culbertson had to say about the Dodgers. They give players a chance to make it. Taylor and Barnes made it because they were given an opportunity. I think the Dodgers will give Kemp an opportunity. He is 33 years old. He is old enough to figure it out. However, most of the time these guys do not change. It is in their DNA.
The Dodgers don’t need Kemp, no other team wants him plan and simple.
HawkeyeDodger is right Matt Kemp is not worth the risk, and he doesn’t deserve the chance. The last time the Dodgers wanted him to play left field he caused nothing but trouble in the clubhouse thinking( as always )only of himself.Now if he starts in left he will be blocking the path of Toles or Verdugo. The Dodgers lowered their payroll and moved some players that most likely wouldn’t have been much help to the team, Kemp is in that group.
That should be Matt Beaty
For every reason you can come up with to keep Kemp you can come up with a reason not to keep him. I believe this team has the leadership from the front office down to the players that will keep him in line or he will be gone. If,and that is the biggest if you can find, Kemp can be not terrible in left his bat could be a difference maker.
A motivated Matt Kemp could be an all star and maybe even a mvp caliber season. While I’m not holding my breath, I do believe the front office gives him the spring to show he’s serious and in shape. This front office worked a miracle offloading Gonzalez, McCarthy and Kazmir, I don’t know if they have another one in them to move Kemp if he’s a turd.
On Cole I don’t think the Bucs need Pederson or Verdugo,they have some young outfielders already. Maybe Alvarez, Font,Lux and Beat could get it done. I could see FAZ sending Pederson, Thompson and Sheffield to Tampa for Odorizzi.
It sounds like they are trying to sign the Japanese closer Hirano, which would be nice as he’s a ground ball pitcher. I would like to see them go after Jared Hughes also.
The Dodgers kept Chase Utley around to be the team Dad. A more mature Andre Ethier took Bellinger under his wings last season. Matt Kemp is the antithesis of those two. Not worth the risk with all of the talent the Dodgers have to play LF. I forgot about the arthritic hips until you mentioned it Mark. You’re right though. It is up to him if he wants to continue to have an MLB career.
It’s got to mean something to the young players on this team when they see the commitment the organization has to playing hard and having the right attitude. $20m won’t get you a spot on this roster unless you produce.
I’m not as concerned with Kemp’s attitude as much as some others on this site, and I’m certain that with Dave Roberts and an established core of leaders, there is no way that anyone is going to undermine the commitment to take care of unfinished business. If anything I think that Kemp would buy into the culture as it exists, and could well become a model citizen. And if there’s any hint that he could undermine the culture, I’m sure he would be gone in an instant.
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Seems to me that Kemp has regained his power stroke with 35 bombs in 2016, and 39 doubles, and 19 long balls last year in only 115 games.
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And if he could get down to 205, or thereabouts, he might even be able to upgrade his defense.
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Of course, nothing is guaranteed. And if Kemp doesn’t provide production, he could simply go the way of Carl Crawford.
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And of course, any chance that Kemp has of contributing will depend on his health, and his commitment to work his keister off.