What Will Dodger Baseball Look Like in 2021?

NOTE: This coffee cup was given to me by a very special friend who is now fighting cancer. I pray that you beat that bastard, Bob! Thanks for the mug. I think that the mug pretty well sums me up!

There is a lot of time between now and Spring Training and it could be a cold, contentious Winter on the labor side as MLB and the MLBPA continue to distrust each other. I happen to think that things could get very, very bad between the parties. If you think it’s bad now… it’s not! Wait until you see what bad is.

It seems likely to me that over 100 players will be non-tendered on December 2, 2020 and many of them may not get offered Major League Contacts. Teams are starting to figure out that handing out long contracts to aging vets are just plain dumb. They also understand that a youngster costs less than a seasoned vet and they have 6 years of control.

In the Dodgers case, Michael Norris reported that Andrew Friedman has allegedly said that re-signing Justin Turner is not a priority. Now, we all know that AF is a nice, unassuming guy who generally has positive things to say about his players. What ups with that? Well, all I can figure is that JT is asking something like $50 million for two years, and of course, Friedman will not give him anything close to that! Also, Andrew does not know if the DH will be utilized in the NL next year or not. However, let’s get to the questions on all our minds:

When will the season start?

I think it has a great chance of starting on time. At the very worst, it might be a month late. What follows is not political – it is simply what is happening in the world we live in. The COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech has taken the lead and will likely be the first to market. It is over 90% effective, meaning that somewhere between 1% and 10% of the people could still be infected. The Oxford/Astrozenica and Moderna Vaccines are right behind them. We do not yet know their efficacy, but they may be even more effective.

Army general Gus Perna is in charge of Operation Warp Speed, the program to inoculate 300 million Americans against the coronavirus by next spring. They have doses of the vaccine already stockpiled and ready to deliver as soon as the FDA approves it. Currently, they have enough kits to give 88 million shots and they will double by the next month. You can read the 60 Minutes interview with the General HERE.

Frontline workers, doctors, nurses, hospitals, and nursing home staff will be the first to get the vaccine. I have no clue where MLB players will rank, but if they start the vaccines before December 1st (and I believe they will), it would seem to me that by the time pitchers and catchers report, players could be vaccinated… or close.

Here are a few facts from the CDC Website:

• FACT: COVID-19 vaccines will not give you COVID-19
• FACT: COVID-19 vaccines will not cause you to test positive on COVID-19 viral tests
• FACT: People who have gotten sick with COVID-19 may still benefit from getting vaccinated
• FACT: Getting vaccinated can help prevent getting sick with COVID-19

In more good news for the fight against COVID-19, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration late Monday authorized the use of a drug made by Eli Lilly and Co. that appears to protect infected people at high risk from getting very sick. In people who were at high risk of severe COVID disease, only 3% of those who got the drug went to the emergency room or were hospitalized. With Regeneron and Remdesivir and now this, the chances of recovery from COVID-19, even without the vaccine are very high.

I am not going to tell you what to do, but I am getting the vaccine as soon as it is available. It’s like a flu shot – some people feel like crud for a couple of days after the shot – most don’t! I likely have a few months of immunity due to having it recently. Why am I talking about this? It’s very simple – the only way baseball comes back to normal is with a vaccine. Don’t make this political – it’s not!

Will there be fans?

That’s the whole point of the vaccine. Maybe the first month, the fans will be limited, but by June or so, I think you will see baseball and other aspects of society return to “normal” – if there ever is a new normal. I am looking forward to baseball in 2021… in person!

6-Man Rotations

Why use a six-man rotation now, when no one has really used it in the past? OK, hear me out: In 2020, pitchers did not pitch a lot of innings. Lance Lynn led MLB with 84 innings pitched. Only 17 pitchers pitched more than 70 innings. The Dodgers had three pitchers who threw over 50 innings (Kershaw, May and Urias). Gonsolin threw 46 and Buehler threw 36 innings.

Add in the fact that David Price missed the season, and I believe we have a perfect storm to set up a six-man rotation so as to have the pitchers be fresh for another World Series run:

1. Kershaw
2. Buehler
3. Price
4. Urias
5. May
6. Gonsolin

To me, this is the perfect time to go to a six-man rotation.

Designated Hitter

Will the NL use the Designated Hitter in 2021? Well, the MLBPA wants it and the owners want it, but the owners are trying to use it as a bargaining chip, which simply can’t be done when both sides want the same thing. I believe they will ultimately decide to do it, along with the runner on 2B in extra innings and expanded rosters and playoffs. But, they should hurry up and make the decision because a team like the Dodgers needs to decide if JT is in their plans… and if he can DH, that makes him all the more appealing.

Nolan Arenado Anyone?

Nolan is probably the best defensive 3B I have seen in my lifetime. He will also be 30 years old next year and his career has benefited immeasurably by playing at Coors Field. Well, not immeasurably… it can be measured. For his career, he is Superman at Coors. He has hit .322 with a .376 OB% while slugging .609 and OPS’ing .985! The problem is that on the road he has hit ..263 with a .322 OB% while slugging ..471 and OPS’ing .793! That there is Chris Taylor-esque!

Some of you will say, “Yeah, but he is getting better on the road.” OK, let’s look at last year – he hit .271 at Coors and .227 on the road! He only slugged .809 at Coors and .636 on the road. He reminds me of Vinnie Castilla, who was a beast at Coors Field. He had five years in a row, where he hit 32, 40, 40, 36, and 33 HR and hit well over .300 every year. He then played in Atlanta, Houston, and Washington where he could not duplicate his success. At age 36, he came back to Colorado and hit 35 HR with 131 RBI.

To top it all off, Arenado is owed $200 Million through age 35… AND you are going to have to send the Rockies some good (really good) prospects. That would be a HUGE dope-fiend move and AF will not do something that foolish for a guy who hits very little away from Coors. The chances of this happening are ZERO, ZIP, NADA!

That said, the Dodgers do need a power RH bat! I’ll give you a better deal: How about trading for the A’s Matt Chapman and giving up Cody Hoese, Michael Busch, and DJ Peters… maybe more? Now, we are talking! Think about it! See the lineup below.

Who Hits Leadoff?

If you assume Mookie will be the leadoff hitter in 2021, you might be wrong! It is not a given that Justin Turner will be back and even if he is, he is probably more suited to hit #5 or #6 as he ages. He’s still a dangerous hitter, but is not as prolific on these 100 MPH fastballs anymore!

Mookie Betts and Corey Seager made as potent a #1 and #2 punch as there was in all of baseball in 2020…. and maybe they stay there, but with Justin Turner either gone or hitting lower in the lineup, some changes may be in order. Here are a few ideas:

Gavin Lux steps up. He certainly has the speed to hit leadoff. The obvious question is whether he can get on base 35% of the time. If he can, he could certainly be a huge asset. #1 Lux, #2 Betts, #3 Seager.

Cody Bellinger steps up. No, I don’t want him to lead off, but I have pushed for him to hit #3. I think if he knew he was going to hit #3, before the season started, he could work on his swing and approach so as to improve his BA and cut his swing down. At any rate, I think he will be working on that this winter anyway.

Will Smith leads off. Will Smith led the Dodgers with a .401 OB% and he is pretty fast… especially for a catcher. If he were to lead off, I think it would involve a position change, but if you look at stats, Will Smith’s .401 OB% and .980 OPS would look good in the #1 spot! OK, consider this lineup:

1. Will Smith 2B (R)
2. Mookie Betts RF (R)
3. Corey Seager SS (L)
4. Matt Chapman 3B (R)
5. Cody Bellinger CF (L)
6. Max Muncy 1B (L)
7. Edwin Rios (L) / AJ Pollock (R) DH
8. Chris Taylor (R) /Gavin Lux (L) LF
9. Austin Barnes (R)/ Keibert Ruiz (L) C

I like that lineup a lot!

Dave Roberts Speaks on the Turner Drama

Doc spoke with KTLA on Monday. Here’s few soundbites:

“We could’ve all done things differently and done better.”

“This is new to all of us. So, I think emotions got the best of all of us.”

“I’m a cancer survivor. I sat next to him. And, so, I don’t apologize for that.”

“The main thing is Justin is healthy and we’re moving past it. We can really celebrate the thing that we won, and that’s a championship with the Dodgers.”

There you have it. It was the heat of the moment and nobody died, even if the media called him every name in the book. All I can say is:

I do hope JT comes back!

The Bullpen

I hear the Dodgers want Blake Trienen back and he wants to come back. The only problems is $$$$. I think Andrew Friedman would like a 2-year $15 to $18 million deal, but Blake may want more. We have to wait and see…

I firmly believe that Kenley Jansen will work hard with Driveline Baseball this winter and try to get his Closer’s job back. If Treinen signs, there could be more than one closer. AF is not going to sign any expensive closers – write that down in ink! Kenley may not be as good as he once was, but he may be as good once as he ever was.

Friedman will absolutely look for bargains. Jake McGee and Pedro Baez are still possibilities but if over 100 players are non-tendered, some will be relievers. I think the market for Free Agents will be slow to develop. Robbie Ray had a 6.62 ERA in 2102 and quickly signed for $8 million. $8 million doesn’t go as far as it used to. Toronto is really desperate and they are making dope-fiend moves quickly.

I Have Always Liked This Song…

There Will be a Special LA Dodger Talk Announcement Later this Week.

P.S. It’s all good!