What Value Do Other Teams Place on Dodger Prospects?
So yesterday the Cubs acquired Justin Wilson and Alex Avila from the Tigers for Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Parades and a PTBNL. Candelario is the #92 MLB prospect, but Parades is the guy the Tigers really wanted. Baseball insiders think Parades has a chance to be a special SS. The Cubs needed a catcher like Avilia so this fills two spots for them. The Dodgers had no need for Avilia,
So yesterday the Cubs acquired Justin Wilson and Alex Avila from the Tigers for Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Parades and a PTBNL. Candelario is the #92 MLB prospect, but Parades is the guy the Tigers really wanted. Baseball insiders think Parades has a chance to be a special SS. The Cubs needed a catcher like Avilia so this fills two spots for them. The Dodgers had no need for Avilia, so the Cubs won out. The Cubs now have ZERO of the TOP 100 MLB Prospects while the Dodgers have six… count ’em 6!
So, one might think that the Dodgers would have no problem putting together a deal for Darvish or Gray or even Britton, but there are a couple of factors you need to consider first before you decide if that is true.
- Just like FAZ was steadfast in not trading Seager, Pederson, Urias, Bellinger and Stewart in the past couple of years (those were the players teams were asking for) in the past two years, they are steadfast in not trading Alex Verdugo and Walker Buehler, and those are the two players Texas is seeking… probably Oakland too.
- You have to consider how other teams value Dodger prospects. Even Ray Charles can see that Alex Verdugo has the potential to be “Tony Gwynn-esque.” Will he? Only time will tell, but he has “batting champion” written all over him. Walker Buehler can be an Ace – Think Zack Greinke when you think of him. It’s easy for us as fans to say, “Just offer Texas Alvarez and Calhoun” but maybe the Rangers do not value flame-throwing pitchers with control problems who have regressed, or players with steel mitts and tree-trunk legs.
Certain teams have certain needs – trades are not made just because a prospect is ranked higher than another prospect. I think lots of teams would take a chance on Yadier Alvarez, but they do not value him as a top prospect. To get Chris Sale, the Red Sox had to give up the #1 MLB prospect and the #12 MLB prospect among other things. To get Quintana, the Cubs had to give up the #7 MLB prospect and to get Wilson and Avila they had to give up their last Top 100 prospect and another younger prospect who could be the centerpiece of the deal. We have no idea what the Dodgers would have given up.
I would think the Dodgers could put together a package of Alvarez, Calhoun, White, Diaz and Smith to get Gray or Alvarez, but who knows how Texas or Oakland values those players? I do think Britton or Reed or Hand is a possibility but to get Darvish or Gray, it is going to take Verdugo and/or Buehler and I don’t think Friedman will trade either one.
I loved what Grant Brisbee (thanks to Bluto) wrote about starting pitching yesterday:
The Giants’ starting pitchers threw three quality starts against the Dodgers this weekend. Each one of them pitched into the seventh inning. Over the last two games, they combined for 14 innings and two runs allowed.
They lost every game. They will lose more games before the season is over. Dozens of them. And while maybe none of them will be as miserable as the three this weekend, they’ll be pretty miserable.
How does that San Fran starting pitching that was held up as a model for the Dodgers look right about now?
Clayton Kershaw looked extremely healthy yesterday – he was firing that ball and getting full extension in his windup and follow through. He will be back this week – BOOK IT! If the Dodgers could get a starter without giving up Verdugo or Buehler, I’m all in, but I doubt that will happen. When the Cubs got Chapman last year, it cost them the #3 Top Prospect. What will Britton cost? I’m not sure we should pay that kind of price. In the meantime, I’ll just chilling until the trade deadline.
What do you wanna’ bet that some teams are hot after Ryu?
Do the Dodgers really need another starter?
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Discussion (121)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Add Cingrani too now.
Dodgers get Cingrani
Still ten minutes left.
If you want to see which metrics may matter most to the Dodgers, look at exit velocity.
Lowest EVs
1. Hill
2. Watson
6. McCarthy
8. Maeda
9. Wood
11. Kershaw
I was a bit behind and now see Watson was obtained. Underwhelming indeed
I don’t want to see the FO overpay for Britton or Hand but if we think Grant Dayton, Avilan, Paredes et al can be dominant in the post season, we will be dissapointed. FO needs to add, at minimum, a LHRP.
Dodgers get Tony Watson
Dodgers acquire Tony Watson. Puke!
Gray to Skankees for 3 prospects.
Well here we wait.
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My up to the minute predictions for whats going to happen. No particular order.
1. Darvish and Claudio. The rental and nice LHRP should be the cheapest in prospects and fits with 2018 money.
2. Gray and Coulombe. AlwaysCompete’s special! Nice pickups if you HAVE to trade Verdugo or Alvarez because a trade headlined by Calhoun aint getting it done. Also a 2018 luxury tax dream.
3. Hand. He is everything we want and as close to a W.S. guarantee we can get. Shouldn’t require Verdugo/Alvarez, in my opinion.
4. Britton. Don’t see it. High prospect cost, health risk and too expensive in 2018, therefore really only a 2017 rental. Cost/Benefit rule doesn’t work.
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Buehler isn’t available!!!
Not ready to give Alvarez away because at this point in his development he is very much like a young Sandy K who struggled with his command too. It usually comes with time and repeatition.
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MIX AND MATCH
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I can’t remember a team that has more interchangeable parts than this one. And they all seem to play their positions well.
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Taylor—2b, lf, cf, 3b
Seager—ss, 3b
Turner—3b, 2b(?)
Bellinger—1b, lf, cf, rf
Forsythe—2b, 3b
Barnes—c, 2b, of
Grandal—c
Hernandez—everywhere
Puig—rf, cf
Utley– 2b,3b,1b
Pederson—cf, could play other OF
Farmer—c, and I read he plays other positions too
You can probably add other positions that I have overlooked. It appears that versatility is high on the list of preferred attributes if you are going to be a Dodger
I would never trade Beuhler. Verdugo I may because of the outfielders we have and in the system. I would trade Calhoun because he is blocked. Ryu looked really good last night. He had the same stat line as Bum.. I think we need a LHRP. Three more hours to go.
50% actually unless my math is really bad. Both Urias and De Leon could end up very good MLB pitchers… but right now they’re definitely not. My math can’t be that bad since I can figure out those math questions you have now to post here.
You cannot really say Alvarez has regressed. He has just advanced beyond his skills. I do not think FAZ has given up on him yet. They realize different players advance at different speeds. At the least they’re looking to get back their $$$ investment. Command of the zone would put Alvarez right back up there in the rankings. Coming from Cuba and not being on familiar ground effects these young foreign players more than the domestics. I haven’t seen or heard anything that makes me think FAZ has decided Alvarez a lost cause or a mistake. Guess it’ll all be clear to me sometime in the near (or far) future.
Test
Only a very few prospects are going to be stars. Figuring out which prospects are going to be stars is where front offices make their money. For every Cory Seager is a Joel Guzman. (For those who don’t remember Guzman, he was the Dodgers’ top-rated prospect and a big power hitting shortstop. He hit .232 with a .638 OPS in 62 PA with the Dodgers and Rays in 2006/07 and flamed out.) So – some here claim to have a crystal ball and know beyond a shadow of a doubt that Buehler will be a star and that Alex Verdugo is the 2nd coming of Tony Gwynn. Those who believe that are apparently better than the scouts who have less foreknowledge than that.
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I get the importance of hanging on to top prospects but also know that chances such as those possessed by the Dodgers this year don’t come along all that often. While I am not sold on the likes of Darvish and would not willingly overpay for his services for the next 2 months, the Dodgers need a shutdown lefty for the ‘pen and it would be a shame if the team didn’t do all that it needs to do to have the best chance to get to and win the Series after a 30 year absence. (The longest in franchise history, BTW.)
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All of those who think that the Dodgers should hold on to all of their prospects because they’ll all be stars and are all better than other teams’ prospects don’t know their history. I am sure that the Braintrust will hold on to their top prospects but if this year’s team doesn’t make the series and the team doesn’t make a move to get them there, the players on the roster will be disappointed (as will most of their fans).
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At some point, you just have to go for it. If this isn’t the season to do it, then when will it be?
MJ,
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I changed the name back, but I have no idea why it just did that. That name is not your user name and it does not appear to be on this end. You may want to check your profile. Or log-out and log back in.
They are now saying that we are in on the Ranger’s leftie reliever Alex Claudio, who is under team control until 2021.
He has very good stats against lefties.
Mark: “Certain teams have certain needs – trades are not made just because a prospect is ranked higher than another prospect”.
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VERY TRUE. Teams also have their own scouting departments which rank the prospects, and I am sure, quite differently than the published information.
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I tend to think the Rangers highly covet 21 yr old Alvarez a “flame-throwing pitcher with control problems”. I think the reason we don’t have Darvish already is that the Dodgers do also.
I don’t even think Darvish is worth a Calhoun. He is a pure rental. It’s understood that the Rangers want to re-sign him, and it’s understood that Darvish wants to stay with the Rangers. What it really amounts to in this cost versus benefit analysis is if he’s a significant upgrade over McCarthy, Maeda or Ryu for that #4 spot for the playoffs. I’m not entirely sure how much better he is than those options.
For the Rangers, this is all a hedge. They understand that if Yu leaves, they don’t even get a first round comp pick because of the changes to the CBA. If they try to re-sign and things fall through, at least they got a better package.
Teams looking to trade for Yu probably realize this and can use it as leverage. The Dodgers need to stay firm and not offer much more than the value of that compensation pick, or see what the other teams offer if they can and either nudge the offer a little higher, or just walk away. I’m not giving any of the top four for that guy.
Is Austin Barnes a chip? We talk about prospects, but he’s very valuable. He could start as catcher on most any team, he’s young and cheap. I like him with the Dodgers, and he’s now the de facto utility guy with Taylor ensconced in left, but with Farmer now on the roster, …maybe.
A healthy Britten is a temptation.
2017 Contract Status:
• Signed thru 2017
• 1 yr/$11.4M (17)
• Arb Eligible: 2018 • Free Agent: 2019
Mark, good post, it comes back to that question you asked, what is a World Championship worth? That #3 prospect traded helped the Cubs win a World Series, it’s a tough call, hypothetically, would I trade Verdugo and Buehler if it meant winning the World Series this year? Yes. No risk, no reward. It’s a tough call, glad I’m not FAZ right now.