What the Trends Are Showing

Mark was right, as were AVF and dodgerrick.  Mark could be right and all that is required is patience for the (older) guys to start to produce.  AVF and dodgerrick are right that this team may be getting too old to ignore.

I doubt that anyone would disagree that this team is built on SLG, pitching, and defense.  That is how they got to and won the last two WS. But, as the players age, bat speed will slow down.  When bat speed slows, SLG starts to regress as well.  Teoscar’s bat is noticeably slower.

Teo’s bat speed has gone from 71 (2023) to 73.2 (2024) to 72.9 (2025) to 71.8 (2026).  That does not sound like a prescription for an upcoming change in his power numbers.   His SLG for the last 3 years – .501, .454, .365.  It is entirely possible that his adrenaline kicks in for the playoffs and the bat speed picks up.

After the first 14 games the Dodgers were 11-3.  They are 13-13 since.  They are 7-8 in their last 15 games. 

Over the last 15 games, the team batting:

• BA – .241 (13^th)
• OBP – .325 (9^th)
• SLG – .367 (22^nd)
• OPS – .693 (18^th)
• Runs – 66 (19^th)
• wRC+ – 98 (16^th)
• HR – 11 (28^th)
• Hits – 120 (20^th)

That is a second level offense.  If it were not for the pitching and defense, this team would not even be playing .500.

Want a larger sample size?  Let’s look at the last 26 games since their 11-3 start.

• BA – .248 (13^th)
• OBP – .329 (8^th)
• SLG – .394 (18^th)
• OPS – .723 (12^th)
• Runs – 114 (16^th)
• wRC+ – 105 (10^th)
• HR – 26 (20^th)
• Hits – 215 (14^th)

Better , but not a top shelf offense, and it shows the trend is regressing.

Over the last 15 games, the team pitching:

• Team ERA – 3.27 (6^th)
• SP ERA – 4.00 (14^th)
• RP ERA – 2.12 (3^rd)

That starting pitching ERA ballooned the last 2 games.  It went from 2.76 to 4.00 .  Surprise, because the SP was not good, the team lost both games by identical scores of 7-2.  And all LAD runs were generated from 2-run HRs late, once the games had been decided.

Fangraphs does not allow for custom dates for fielding. Therefore, for the season, the defensive metrics are:

• DRS – 24 (2^nd)
• OAA – 14 (3^rd)

This is a good defensive team.  Cubs and Boston are arguably better, but not by much.

Dodgers do not hit HR, they are a .500 team with pitching and defense.

NOTE – THIS WAS PREPARED BEFORE I LEARNED THE DODGERS CHOSE KIM OVER FREELAND

What is going on with individual players over the last 15 games:

• Andy Pages – .328/.355/.603/.958
• Kyle Tucker – .255/.371/.431/.802
• Max Muncy – .233/.353/.442/.795
• Shohei Ohtani – .234/.390/.362/.752
• Freddie Freeman – .220/.281/.322/.603
• Teoscar Hernández – .227/.358/.227/.586
• Will Smith – .250/.308/.389/.697
• Alex Freeland – .270/.357/.405/.763
• Hyeseong Kim – .262/.295/.333/.629
• Dalton Rushing – .188/.257/.188/.445

Pages has been fairly consistent throughout the season.  He had a slump (as do all players), but he has seemingly broken out of that. For how long?

After a very slow start, Freeland has the #4 OPS over the last 15 games, and the #4 SLG.  Will it continue?  I do not believe so, but that is because I do expect the others to improve…Ohtani, Freddie, Smith, Mookie.  I am not convinced he will precipitously drop, while I am sure others believe he will.

Teoscar is not hitting, but his OBP is up because he has the 3^rd most BB on the team the last 15 games.  Doesn’t help to drive in runs.  Should Alex Call get more AB over Teo? 

Since Rushing’s phenomenal start, he has been the worst hitter on the team the last 15 games.  Over those 15 games, Smith has 39 PA and Rushing has 35.  Maybe Smith should be playing more???

Two of the top 3 BA over the last 15 games are Freeland and Kim.

Mark is correct.  This is a marathon and not a sprint.  And the Dodgers seemingly know how to navigate a 162 game season, and then the be ready for the playoffs.  At least for 3 of the last 6 years.

And dodgerrick is right that the games in March – May count the same as do games in August – September. The lineup is getting older.  And with Mookie coming back, and Freeland or Kim going to the bench, it will be getting older. 

Will dog days of summer impact the “older” Dodgers who are scuffling now?  How will that impact the bat speeds.  Only Shohei and Pages haves a bat speed above the 50^th percentile.  That is partially offset with 7 of 10 primary position players with barrel % rates greater than 50^th percentile.  Only Pages (45%), Tucker (39%) and Kim (23%) are less than 50.

There are a lot of questions, and nobody has the answers.  Just guesses.  I will continue to monitor trends, and hopefully they will begin to trend up rather than to continue to show regression.

Some will say that it has to get better, while others look at trends and age, and conclude it will not.