What the Trends Are Showing
Mark was right, as were AVF and dodgerrick. Mark could be right and all that is required is patience for the (older) guys to start to produce. AVF and dodgerrick are right that this team may be getting too old to ignore. I doubt that anyone would disagree that this team is built…
Mark was right, as were AVF and dodgerrick. Mark could be right and all that is required is patience for the (older) guys to start to produce. AVF and dodgerrick are right that this team may be getting too old to ignore.
I doubt that anyone would disagree that this team is built on SLG, pitching, and defense. That is how they got to and won the last two WS. But, as the players age, bat speed will slow down. When bat speed slows, SLG starts to regress as well. Teoscar’s bat is noticeably slower.
Teo’s bat speed has gone from 71 (2023) to 73.2 (2024) to 72.9 (2025) to 71.8 (2026). That does not sound like a prescription for an upcoming change in his power numbers. His SLG for the last 3 years – .501, .454, .365. It is entirely possible that his adrenaline kicks in for the playoffs and the bat speed picks up.
After the first 14 games the Dodgers were 11-3. They are 13-13 since. They are 7-8 in their last 15 games.
Over the last 15 games, the team batting:
- BA – .241 (13th)
- OBP – .325 (9th)
- SLG – .367 (22nd)
- OPS – .693 (18th)
- Runs – 66 (19th)
- wRC+ – 98 (16th)
- HR – 11 (28th)
- Hits – 120 (20th)
That is a second level offense. If it were not for the pitching and defense, this team would not even be playing .500.
Want a larger sample size? Let’s look at the last 26 games since their 11-3 start.
- BA – .248 (13th)
- OBP – .329 (8th)
- SLG – .394 (18th)
- OPS – .723 (12th)
- Runs – 114 (16th)
- wRC+ – 105 (10th)
- HR – 26 (20th)
- Hits – 215 (14th)
Better , but not a top shelf offense, and it shows the trend is regressing.
Over the last 15 games, the team pitching:
- Team ERA – 3.27 (6th)
- SP ERA – 4.00 (14th)
- RP ERA – 2.12 (3rd)
That starting pitching ERA ballooned the last 2 games. It went from 2.76 to 4.00 . Surprise, because the SP was not good, the team lost both games by identical scores of 7-2. And all LAD runs were generated from 2-run HRs late, once the games had been decided.
Fangraphs does not allow for custom dates for fielding. Therefore, for the season, the defensive metrics are:
- DRS – 24 (2nd)
- OAA – 14 (3rd)
This is a good defensive team. Cubs and Boston are arguably better, but not by much.
Dodgers do not hit HR, they are a .500 team with pitching and defense.
NOTE – THIS WAS PREPARED BEFORE I LEARNED THE DODGERS CHOSE KIM OVER FREELAND
What is going on with individual players over the last 15 games:
- Andy Pages – .328/.355/.603/.958
- Kyle Tucker – .255/.371/.431/.802
- Max Muncy – .233/.353/.442/.795
- Shohei Ohtani – .234/.390/.362/.752
- Freddie Freeman – .220/.281/.322/.603
- Teoscar Hernández – .227/.358/.227/.586
- Will Smith – .250/.308/.389/.697
- Alex Freeland – .270/.357/.405/.763
- Hyeseong Kim – .262/.295/.333/.629
- Dalton Rushing – .188/.257/.188/.445
Pages has been fairly consistent throughout the season. He had a slump (as do all players), but he has seemingly broken out of that. For how long?
After a very slow start, Freeland has the #4 OPS over the last 15 games, and the #4 SLG. Will it continue? I do not believe so, but that is because I do expect the others to improve…Ohtani, Freddie, Smith, Mookie. I am not convinced he will precipitously drop, while I am sure others believe he will.
Teoscar is not hitting, but his OBP is up because he has the 3rd most BB on the team the last 15 games. Doesn’t help to drive in runs. Should Alex Call get more AB over Teo?
Since Rushing’s phenomenal start, he has been the worst hitter on the team the last 15 games. Over those 15 games, Smith has 39 PA and Rushing has 35. Maybe Smith should be playing more???
Two of the top 3 BA over the last 15 games are Freeland and Kim.
Mark is correct. This is a marathon and not a sprint. And the Dodgers seemingly know how to navigate a 162 game season, and then the be ready for the playoffs. At least for 3 of the last 6 years.
And dodgerrick is right that the games in March – May count the same as do games in August – September. The lineup is getting older. And with Mookie coming back, and Freeland or Kim going to the bench, it will be getting older.
Will dog days of summer impact the “older” Dodgers who are scuffling now? How will that impact the bat speeds. Only Shohei and Pages haves a bat speed above the 50th percentile. That is partially offset with 7 of 10 primary position players with barrel % rates greater than 50th percentile. Only Pages (45%), Tucker (39%) and Kim (23%) are less than 50.
There are a lot of questions, and nobody has the answers. Just guesses. I will continue to monitor trends, and hopefully they will begin to trend up rather than to continue to show regression.
Some will say that it has to get better, while others look at trends and age, and conclude it will not.
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Discussion (84)
Disagree, not disagreeable
AF rewarded generous contracts to Treinen and Edman for their contributions in the playoffs and World Series in 2024. Both contracts have been a disaster so far.
“but maybe they should change their hitting approach to a Badger and bear did when they were growing up? Forgive me but that’s just silly.” Do you mean “get a good pitch to hit”, something learned in Little League and something the Dodgers have clearly abandoned . or was your intent to insult? to a Badger and bear did is a bit ambiguous. Whatever. I think we can all agree that the Dodgers currently look like sh*t, but I also hope we can agree a losing streak in May is nothing to be alarmed about. Or maybe it is, what do I know.
The dodgers offer the most expensive product in the game. Right now, the quality of the product is shit.
Think he had a brain freeze. Inexplicable with 2 challenges remaining.
Interesting! Perhaps inspired by Pee-Wee’s youth as a marbles champ…
Pretty early for the dog days os summer, isn’t it? I’m not too worried about the Dodgers’ May swoon…. but it is annoying. Two thoughts from this game: –Maybe Haase is the reason Buster Olney decided to trade Patrick Bailey. The backup catcher nearly hit 3 HRs! –Max should have challenged that strike-three call. On the replay the pitch looked outside, and Max probably could have had another hack. It was a key moment late in the game. A learning experience, I hope.
sounds like you have no clue as well.
I don’t care what Bader did his previous AB. I’m not pulling Yoshi. Especially for a washed up Treinen
Well If you can’t figure it out, just move on to something else
I have no idea what the point of that post was? If the team does better it will be better, if the team does worse it will be worse?
Stay in the moment Mark. Matt “….like sands thru he hourglass…. That puts the dialog of Dodger past, present, and future into Soap Opera territory.
so far
The struggles are now. NOW is not the future.
I’m hoping that my fears will be proven unfounded….but right now no Dodgers fan can be happy with the way Kyle Tucker is playing after he signed that fat contract: four years at a record AAV of $60 million. For that kind of money, we should be expecting all-star level play at a minimum. He should be putting up the kind of numbers Pages is now producing. My concern boils down to this: What if Tucker’s character is that of a mercenary who, having now signed massive FU money, lacks the motivation, drive and pride that true superstars possess? The rap on him was that he was a talented player who exhibited little emotion or “fire.” I discounted those opinions. But what if there really is a bit of Rendon in his character? Tucker’s low-key demeanor may not be a problem at all–but I have to wonder about it as long as this alleged “superstar” keeps producing around league-average levels. Considering the investment and expectations, it’s odd to me that many fans here seem less concerned about Tucker than the periodic struggles of Shohei or Teo. There could be a looming problem here: It won’t be easy to bench a guy getting paid $60 million per year through 2029 to make room for a rising prospect. It’s not just the Dodgers $$ that is invested in Tucker, but also AF’s ego. Last season, Conforto would have been benched a lot sooner it not for $$ and what it reflects. Like I said at the start of this rant, I hope that Tucker shows that my fears are unfounded. He was supposed to slot into the top of the lineup and provide a spark. With Shohei, Teo and others struggling, when will Tucker deliver?
I think it just silly to keep saying that ‘we still have the ……..best, fifth best etc, when that was a carry over from the beginning of the year. The struggles are NOW. Two more weeks like this you can say we still have the tenth best …… On the other hand if they come alive we might have the 3rd best. For all these years management and the players have figured it out. Hoping they will this year as well
Well said!!!!
Some people like to be pessimistic….like sands thru he hourglass….
Bear trust me ive seen plenty of baseball. My kid played high l evel DI college ball. The game is hard…. Are we in a rut yeah…would I take anay team over us in MLB…Hell effing no. So have fun, and enjoy the ride. I’ll trust the front office and guys that are back 2 back champs and winners of 3 in 6. The game aint easy bud.
they have the fifth most wins in all of MLB. And they’re not playing well. but maybe they should change their hitting approach to a Badger and bear did when they were growing up? Forgive me, but that’s just silly.
We all have our opinions of what ails the Dodgers. My personal take is that it is a combination of many things, age, approach, lack of good situational hitting. I also think several of the players are pressing. This team has been making mediocre pitchers look good. Not a great recipe for wins.
THUMBS UP!
yeah! Get to writing that article.
Above, Matt wrote “but trust the process…..” After 2 straight titles won in 2 very different ways, I sure as hell will trust the process until proven otherwise. Yes, the team is boring as all hell right now, but whatever. I’d rather say this in May than in Oct, when we’re anything but boring. We’ve seen an extended period of suck every single year since this run started in 2013. Maybe back in those early days, losing games in May meant as much as losing games in Sept, but since 2020, it’s not quite the same. So I’ll let them struggle, I’ll let them bore me to sleep (better than any Ambien, that’s for sure!), because I know it’ll eventually turn around, and most importantly, it’ll turn around when it matters most. If it doesn’t? Then I’ll complain. But for now? It’s all part of the journey, so I enjoy the ride. And it the major league team sucks, well, the minor league top 3 farm def makes for exciting reports by Jeff, Bear, and Mark (our Ohtani, Betts, Freeman). Meanwhile, Watford and I are basically our Kike and Rojas.
This story will have a happy ending.
If they are winning, they will stick with what they have. But something has to give. On paper, they are far and away the best offense in either league. On the field, well, that is something else again.