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What the Trends Are Showing

Mark was right, as were AVF and dodgerrick. Mark could be right and all that is required is patience for the (older) guys to start to produce. AVF and dodgerrick are right that this team may be getting too old to ignore. I doubt that anyone would disagree that this team is built…

By Jeff Dominique4 min readJump to 84 comments

Mark was right, as were AVF and dodgerrick.  Mark could be right and all that is required is patience for the (older) guys to start to produce.  AVF and dodgerrick are right that this team may be getting too old to ignore.

I doubt that anyone would disagree that this team is built on SLG, pitching, and defense.  That is how they got to and won the last two WS. But, as the players age, bat speed will slow down.  When bat speed slows, SLG starts to regress as well.  Teoscar’s bat is noticeably slower.

Teo’s bat speed has gone from 71 (2023) to 73.2 (2024) to 72.9 (2025) to 71.8 (2026).  That does not sound like a prescription for an upcoming change in his power numbers.   His SLG for the last 3 years – .501, .454, .365.  It is entirely possible that his adrenaline kicks in for the playoffs and the bat speed picks up.

After the first 14 games the Dodgers were 11-3.  They are 13-13 since.  They are 7-8 in their last 15 games. 

Over the last 15 games, the team batting:

  • BA – .241 (13th)
  • OBP – .325 (9th)
  • SLG – .367 (22nd)
  • OPS – .693 (18th)
  • Runs – 66 (19th)
  • wRC+ – 98 (16th)
  • HR – 11 (28th)
  • Hits – 120 (20th)

That is a second level offense.  If it were not for the pitching and defense, this team would not even be playing .500.

Want a larger sample size?  Let’s look at the last 26 games since their 11-3 start.

  • BA – .248 (13th)
  • OBP – .329 (8th)
  • SLG – .394 (18th)
  • OPS – .723 (12th)
  • Runs – 114 (16th)
  • wRC+ – 105 (10th)
  • HR – 26 (20th)
  • Hits – 215 (14th)

Better , but not a top shelf offense, and it shows the trend is regressing.

Over the last 15 games, the team pitching:

  • Team ERA – 3.27 (6th)
  • SP ERA – 4.00 (14th)
  • RP ERA – 2.12 (3rd)

That starting pitching ERA ballooned the last 2 games.  It went from 2.76 to 4.00 .  Surprise, because the SP was not good, the team lost both games by identical scores of 7-2.  And all LAD runs were generated from 2-run HRs late, once the games had been decided.

Fangraphs does not allow for custom dates for fielding. Therefore, for the season, the defensive metrics are:

  • DRS – 24 (2nd)
  • OAA – 14 (3rd)

This is a good defensive team.  Cubs and Boston are arguably better, but not by much.

Dodgers do not hit HR, they are a .500 team with pitching and defense.

NOTE – THIS WAS PREPARED BEFORE I LEARNED THE DODGERS CHOSE KIM OVER FREELAND

What is going on with individual players over the last 15 games:

  • Andy Pages – .328/.355/.603/.958
  • Kyle Tucker – .255/.371/.431/.802
  • Max Muncy – .233/.353/.442/.795
  • Shohei Ohtani – .234/.390/.362/.752
  • Freddie Freeman – .220/.281/.322/.603
  • Teoscar Hernández – .227/.358/.227/.586
  • Will Smith – .250/.308/.389/.697
  • Alex Freeland – .270/.357/.405/.763
  • Hyeseong Kim – .262/.295/.333/.629
  • Dalton Rushing – .188/.257/.188/.445

Pages has been fairly consistent throughout the season.  He had a slump (as do all players), but he has seemingly broken out of that. For how long?

After a very slow start, Freeland has the #4 OPS over the last 15 games, and the #4 SLG.  Will it continue?  I do not believe so, but that is because I do expect the others to improve…Ohtani, Freddie, Smith, Mookie.  I am not convinced he will precipitously drop, while I am sure others believe he will.

Teoscar is not hitting, but his OBP is up because he has the 3rd most BB on the team the last 15 games.  Doesn’t help to drive in runs.  Should Alex Call get more AB over Teo? 

Since Rushing’s phenomenal start, he has been the worst hitter on the team the last 15 games.  Over those 15 games, Smith has 39 PA and Rushing has 35.  Maybe Smith should be playing more???

Two of the top 3 BA over the last 15 games are Freeland and Kim.

Mark is correct.  This is a marathon and not a sprint.  And the Dodgers seemingly know how to navigate a 162 game season, and then the be ready for the playoffs.  At least for 3 of the last 6 years.

And dodgerrick is right that the games in March – May count the same as do games in August – September. The lineup is getting older.  And with Mookie coming back, and Freeland or Kim going to the bench, it will be getting older. 

Will dog days of summer impact the “older” Dodgers who are scuffling now?  How will that impact the bat speeds.  Only Shohei and Pages haves a bat speed above the 50th percentile.  That is partially offset with 7 of 10 primary position players with barrel % rates greater than 50th percentile.  Only Pages (45%), Tucker (39%) and Kim (23%) are less than 50.

There are a lot of questions, and nobody has the answers.  Just guesses.  I will continue to monitor trends, and hopefully they will begin to trend up rather than to continue to show regression.

Some will say that it has to get better, while others look at trends and age, and conclude it will not.

Discussion (84)

Disagree, not disagreeable

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  1. Watford DodgerMay 12, 2026

    I’m all for playing the long game and understand the Dodger’s thinking, but I don’t think Ohtani leafing off is best for the team at the moment. It sets the wrong tone. Let’s get back to making the Pitchers work, and get the pitch counts up. Make them work harder for their outs.

  2. DodgerdadMay 12, 2026

    Mookie leading off? Heck , schwarber leads off for Phillies, why not try Max in the lead off. His on base would confirm that he would get the job done! You gotta admit, it’s different than anything else they might try! Maybe Call? Let’s shake it up boys!

  3. KevinMay 12, 2026

    I believe he is playing tonight but not hitting tomorrow or Thursday.

  4. BlutoMay 12, 2026

    some of the people here are always looking for something to complain or MMQB over.

  5. BearMay 12, 2026

    Not my point. I have seen teams who won the year before blowing it completely with a bad month. LA went through two months last year, July-August, where they went 25-27. They were 15-10 in September. They had a 9-game lead on July 3rd. By the end of the month, it was 3. It was never bigger than 3 the rest of the year. They only won the division because their competition, did not take advantage of their MEDIOCRE play. Those are the facts. They played much better in the playoffs but were just one clutch hit or play away from losing the World Series. Not like they dominated the Jays. With the payroll and talent, they have on this team, they should be playing a lot better. Ohtani is barely hitting over his weight. He hasn’t hit for power in more than a couple of weeks. Sorry, they might be built for the postseason, but they are going to have to show more energy, and a little more spark to impress me into thinking they can three-peat I’ve seen Dodger teams be awful in April and May and never get back in the race. If their pitching holds up, they can stay close, but they need to show some offense, especially against the back end of the league, and they have not done that yet. They are only 6-5 against their own division and they haven’t played the Padres yet.

  6. Jeff DominiqueMay 12, 2026

    Not because of the offense. It was pitching and timely HRs. You think Teo is going to hit 30 HR this year? Ohtani 50? Freddie 25? Smith 20+? Tucker 30? I can hide my head in the sand and say everything is going to be okay. I just see an offense that is going backwards.

  7. BearMay 12, 2026

    He has more control when he does. Pitches also seem to have more movement. His fastballs are too straight.

  8. MattMay 12, 2026

    You seen the Dodgers lose a pennant in May?? I think this organization over the last 13 years has all earned our trust to not freak out over a losing streak…..

  9. Mark TimmonsMay 12, 2026

    ChatGPT: What MLB Player is credited with inventing the one -hop throw to 1B? The player most often credited with popularizing, and possibly inventing, the one-hop throw to first base is Pee Wee Reese. Before Reese, infielders were generally taught that every throw to first should stay in the air. Reese began intentionally short-hopping throws to first baseman Gil Hodges, especially on difficult plays deep in the hole. Hodges was excellent at picking throws, and the technique reduced wild overthrows while giving Reese a better chance to get speedy runners. The baseball world initially thought it was reckless. Then everybody noticed something annoying: it worked. ⚾ Some historians note that earlier players may have occasionally used the technique, but Reese is widely recognized as the player who turned it into a deliberate, repeatable defensive weapon that spread through baseball instruction. Very “Dodger baseball,” really. Elegant chaos wrapped in practicality.

  10. BearMay 12, 2026

    Surprised Az made a trade with LA. They haven’t done that in a while.

  11. BearMay 12, 2026

    Ohtani is not going to play tonight. Roberts giving him 2 days off from hitting. He will pitch tomorrow.

  12. BearMay 12, 2026

    U relax. Believe it or not, pennants can be lost in May. All you need to do is have a really bad month you cannot recover from.

  13. Jeff DominiqueMay 12, 2026

    He takes over for Siani in CF. He is a better option than Siani. I do not know if Siani gets picked up off waivers, but if he does not, I do expect that he would turn down a MiLB assignment and become a free agent. I hope somebody picks him up. He worked hard this past winter. He is a poster chikd for the proverbial AAAA player.

  14. BumsrapMay 12, 2026

    Orel recommend Sasaki pitch out of the stretch.

  15. BumsrapMay 12, 2026

    Juan Pierre invented the 10 hopper to second.

  16. MattMay 12, 2026

    Reality is we weren’t great in reg season last year and we repeated. Reality is its a 162 season and teams will slump Reality is this team and front office has proved they know what it takes to win…

  17. phil jonesMay 12, 2026

    Sasaki looked the same to me as previous outings. He still throws up too many fat pitches. He just can’t seem to be capable of commanding the bottom of the strike zone. Lots of belt and thigh high pitches without much of a speed variation. A splitter “UP” shouldn’t be a “thing”. Now he has 2 splitters and when he locates either correctly, they are great. But for every great one, there are 2 bad ones. I thought the Giants missed a lot of mistakes that better teams mash. I still think he needs a change up and something that moves away from a LHB, which neither splitter does. I’ve said it before, ABS has made the Umpires better. Orel reported it has led to better concentration and to avoid embarrassment. I think it has standardized the strike zone. No more individual interpretation of what’s a strike. Kim exemplified a wasted at bat bottom 3rd, in a tie game. Orel pointed it out during Kim’s next at bat. Teo led off with a nice double to lead off the inning. Kim has to move Teo to third, somehow, someway; get a pitch to pull or bunt the ball. Instead, Kim chops a sinker away to the left side which doesn’t advance the runner, ON THE FIRST PITCH he sees. Damn, got a pitch you can pull or bunt the ball. Maybe a straight sac bunt from the 9 hole with an offense that’s struggling even in the 3rd inning to get a lead? Anyway, Ohtani follow that up by swinging at a breaking 57 foot ball then rolls over a fastball away for a groundout and Mookie strikes out to ends the inning. Totally wasted opportunity in a tie game before Vesia shit the bed. Hey Bear, fact check. Orel reported that Davey Conception invented the one hop throw to first base. Seems reasonable that it would have started on Astroturf, as previous grass fields weren’t as well groomed and would produce unpredictable hops. But is there any proof it was Davey?

  18. Andrew V ForteMay 12, 2026

    Thomas still has a minor league option remaining, so he’ll begin his time in the L.A. organization in Triple-A.

  19. Andrew V ForteMay 12, 2026

    Alek Thomas: Current Roster StatusMinor League Options Left: 0 (Exhausted)Current Team: Los Angeles DodgersRole: Left-handed bench outfielder and defensive specialistBecause he is out of options, the Dodgers cannot send him down to the minor leagues (Triple-A) without first placing him on waivers, where any other MLB team could claim him.

  20. Andrew V ForteMay 12, 2026

    We’re a voice of reality.

  21. Ron Fairly fanMay 12, 2026

    Dodgers get Alek Thomas from Arizona for minor leaguer Jose Requena. Michael Siani designated for assignment

  22. Mark TimmonsMay 12, 2026

    A voice of sanity.

  23. MattMay 12, 2026

    Its May, relax… This could be the best thing to happen to this team….they know the final goal and it aint going pedal to the medal for 162, been there done that and didnt work out….

  24. BearMay 12, 2026

    Mills was called up because he was pitching well at AAA. His 3.26 ERA was one of the lowest on the team. His WHIP down there is below 1. Who recommended him, I have no clue. So far, the best ERA down there belongs to Garrett McDaniels, 2.30. Mills also had some MLB experience, but his MLB career ERA is 6.65.

  25. BearMay 12, 2026

    I still do not trust Sasaki as a starter. Too much traffic. He made way too many pitches early. I would have pulled him after 5 innings. Up until then, he was at least in line for a win. He did get out of a couple of jams. Shut down innings for the pen have become a problem, so is hanging pitches in the middle of the plate. Like putting the ball on a tee for these guys. Klein did it with 2 strikes and it cost a couple of runs. Mills doesn’t even belong here.

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