SponsorUS Water Systems
LA Dodger Talk

What the Trends Are Showing

Mark was right, as were AVF and dodgerrick. Mark could be right and all that is required is patience for the (older) guys to start to produce. AVF and dodgerrick are right that this team may be getting too old to ignore. I doubt that anyone would disagree that this team is built…

By Jeff Dominique4 min readJump to 84 comments

Mark was right, as were AVF and dodgerrick.  Mark could be right and all that is required is patience for the (older) guys to start to produce.  AVF and dodgerrick are right that this team may be getting too old to ignore.

I doubt that anyone would disagree that this team is built on SLG, pitching, and defense.  That is how they got to and won the last two WS. But, as the players age, bat speed will slow down.  When bat speed slows, SLG starts to regress as well.  Teoscar’s bat is noticeably slower.

Teo’s bat speed has gone from 71 (2023) to 73.2 (2024) to 72.9 (2025) to 71.8 (2026).  That does not sound like a prescription for an upcoming change in his power numbers.   His SLG for the last 3 years – .501, .454, .365.  It is entirely possible that his adrenaline kicks in for the playoffs and the bat speed picks up.

After the first 14 games the Dodgers were 11-3.  They are 13-13 since.  They are 7-8 in their last 15 games. 

Over the last 15 games, the team batting:

  • BA – .241 (13th)
  • OBP – .325 (9th)
  • SLG – .367 (22nd)
  • OPS – .693 (18th)
  • Runs – 66 (19th)
  • wRC+ – 98 (16th)
  • HR – 11 (28th)
  • Hits – 120 (20th)

That is a second level offense.  If it were not for the pitching and defense, this team would not even be playing .500.

Want a larger sample size?  Let’s look at the last 26 games since their 11-3 start.

  • BA – .248 (13th)
  • OBP – .329 (8th)
  • SLG – .394 (18th)
  • OPS – .723 (12th)
  • Runs – 114 (16th)
  • wRC+ – 105 (10th)
  • HR – 26 (20th)
  • Hits – 215 (14th)

Better , but not a top shelf offense, and it shows the trend is regressing.

Over the last 15 games, the team pitching:

  • Team ERA – 3.27 (6th)
  • SP ERA – 4.00 (14th)
  • RP ERA – 2.12 (3rd)

That starting pitching ERA ballooned the last 2 games.  It went from 2.76 to 4.00 .  Surprise, because the SP was not good, the team lost both games by identical scores of 7-2.  And all LAD runs were generated from 2-run HRs late, once the games had been decided.

Fangraphs does not allow for custom dates for fielding. Therefore, for the season, the defensive metrics are:

  • DRS – 24 (2nd)
  • OAA – 14 (3rd)

This is a good defensive team.  Cubs and Boston are arguably better, but not by much.

Dodgers do not hit HR, they are a .500 team with pitching and defense.

NOTE – THIS WAS PREPARED BEFORE I LEARNED THE DODGERS CHOSE KIM OVER FREELAND

What is going on with individual players over the last 15 games:

  • Andy Pages – .328/.355/.603/.958
  • Kyle Tucker – .255/.371/.431/.802
  • Max Muncy – .233/.353/.442/.795
  • Shohei Ohtani – .234/.390/.362/.752
  • Freddie Freeman – .220/.281/.322/.603
  • Teoscar Hernández – .227/.358/.227/.586
  • Will Smith – .250/.308/.389/.697
  • Alex Freeland – .270/.357/.405/.763
  • Hyeseong Kim – .262/.295/.333/.629
  • Dalton Rushing – .188/.257/.188/.445

Pages has been fairly consistent throughout the season.  He had a slump (as do all players), but he has seemingly broken out of that. For how long?

After a very slow start, Freeland has the #4 OPS over the last 15 games, and the #4 SLG.  Will it continue?  I do not believe so, but that is because I do expect the others to improve…Ohtani, Freddie, Smith, Mookie.  I am not convinced he will precipitously drop, while I am sure others believe he will.

Teoscar is not hitting, but his OBP is up because he has the 3rd most BB on the team the last 15 games.  Doesn’t help to drive in runs.  Should Alex Call get more AB over Teo? 

Since Rushing’s phenomenal start, he has been the worst hitter on the team the last 15 games.  Over those 15 games, Smith has 39 PA and Rushing has 35.  Maybe Smith should be playing more???

Two of the top 3 BA over the last 15 games are Freeland and Kim.

Mark is correct.  This is a marathon and not a sprint.  And the Dodgers seemingly know how to navigate a 162 game season, and then the be ready for the playoffs.  At least for 3 of the last 6 years.

And dodgerrick is right that the games in March – May count the same as do games in August – September. The lineup is getting older.  And with Mookie coming back, and Freeland or Kim going to the bench, it will be getting older. 

Will dog days of summer impact the “older” Dodgers who are scuffling now?  How will that impact the bat speeds.  Only Shohei and Pages haves a bat speed above the 50th percentile.  That is partially offset with 7 of 10 primary position players with barrel % rates greater than 50th percentile.  Only Pages (45%), Tucker (39%) and Kim (23%) are less than 50.

There are a lot of questions, and nobody has the answers.  Just guesses.  I will continue to monitor trends, and hopefully they will begin to trend up rather than to continue to show regression.

Some will say that it has to get better, while others look at trends and age, and conclude it will not.

Discussion (84)

Disagree, not disagreeable

Be civil — moderation is real. Links may need a moment of review.

  1. Mark TimmonsMay 12, 2026

    ChatGPT: What MLB Player is credited with inventing the one -hop throw to 1B? The player most often credited with popularizing, and possibly inventing, the one-hop throw to first base is Pee Wee Reese. Before Reese, infielders were generally taught that every throw to first should stay in the air. Reese began intentionally short-hopping throws to first baseman Gil Hodges, especially on difficult plays deep in the hole. Hodges was excellent at picking throws, and the technique reduced wild overthrows while giving Reese a better chance to get speedy runners. The baseball world initially thought it was reckless. Then everybody noticed something annoying: it worked. ⚾ Some historians note that earlier players may have occasionally used the technique, but Reese is widely recognized as the player who turned it into a deliberate, repeatable defensive weapon that spread through baseball instruction. Very “Dodger baseball,” really. Elegant chaos wrapped in practicality.

  2. MattMay 12, 2026

    You seen the Dodgers lose a pennant in May?? I think this organization over the last 13 years has all earned our trust to not freak out over a losing streak…..

  3. BearMay 12, 2026

    He has more control when he does. Pitches also seem to have more movement. His fastballs are too straight.

  4. Jeff DominiqueMay 12, 2026

    Not because of the offense. It was pitching and timely HRs. You think Teo is going to hit 30 HR this year? Ohtani 50? Freddie 25? Smith 20+? Tucker 30? I can hide my head in the sand and say everything is going to be okay. I just see an offense that is going backwards.

  5. BearMay 12, 2026

    Not my point. I have seen teams who won the year before blowing it completely with a bad month. LA went through two months last year, July-August, where they went 25-27. They were 15-10 in September. They had a 9-game lead on July 3rd. By the end of the month, it was 3. It was never bigger than 3 the rest of the year. They only won the division because their competition, did not take advantage of their MEDIOCRE play. Those are the facts. They played much better in the playoffs but were just one clutch hit or play away from losing the World Series. Not like they dominated the Jays. With the payroll and talent, they have on this team, they should be playing a lot better. Ohtani is barely hitting over his weight. He hasn’t hit for power in more than a couple of weeks. Sorry, they might be built for the postseason, but they are going to have to show more energy, and a little more spark to impress me into thinking they can three-peat I’ve seen Dodger teams be awful in April and May and never get back in the race. If their pitching holds up, they can stay close, but they need to show some offense, especially against the back end of the league, and they have not done that yet. They are only 6-5 against their own division and they haven’t played the Padres yet.

  6. BlutoMay 12, 2026

    some of the people here are always looking for something to complain or MMQB over.

  7. KevinMay 12, 2026

    I believe he is playing tonight but not hitting tomorrow or Thursday.

  8. DodgerdadMay 12, 2026

    Mookie leading off? Heck , schwarber leads off for Phillies, why not try Max in the lead off. His on base would confirm that he would get the job done! You gotta admit, it’s different than anything else they might try! Maybe Call? Let’s shake it up boys!

  9. Watford DodgerMay 12, 2026

    I’m all for playing the long game and understand the Dodger’s thinking, but I don’t think Ohtani leafing off is best for the team at the moment. It sets the wrong tone. Let’s get back to making the Pitchers work, and get the pitch counts up. Make them work harder for their outs.

  10. BearMay 12, 2026

    Not according to what I read on yahoo sports. Roberts is giving him a 2 day rest., makes sense to me since he isn’t his weight lately.

  11. BearMay 12, 2026

    Mookie has more career leadoff homers, 52, than Ohtani.

  12. Jeff DominiqueMay 12, 2026

    And some are happy with mediocrity . Not MMQB. I have been advocating for a change in hitting philosophy for years. At some point slug is not going to be there. Is it this year? Can’t say yet.

  13. BumsrapMay 12, 2026

    I want to return to when Betts hit 1st and Freeman 2nd. After that, rlrlrl So, Smith 3rd, Ohtani 4th, Pages 5th, Tucker

  14. MattMay 12, 2026

    For years Jeff? We won 3 tiles in 6 years….!!!! What more do you want?

  15. phil jonesMay 12, 2026

    Thanks for the information, Mark, on Pee Wee starting the trend.

  16. phil jonesMay 12, 2026

    Bear, Ohtani has actually taken the last 11 games of from “hitting”. .105 / .392 He may be batting but he ain’t hitting.

  17. DavidMay 12, 2026

    You don’t normally see Doc get pissed off in the dugout, but you could see that he was after that at bat by KIM. Later you see him reading the riot act to him, using the translator

  18. Mark TimmonsMay 12, 2026

    Batting average be damned. Statistically speaking, you want your best OPS players leading off. Dodgers OPS since 2020: Shohei Ohtani 1.025+ Freddie Freeman .944 Mookie Betts .899 Will Smith .875 Max Muncy .847 Teoscar Hernández ~.820 (Dodgers years only) Andy Pages ~.800 Miguel Rojas .668 Your best OPS hitters should get more plate appearances, which usually means batting near the top of the lineup. But baseball strategy has evolved from the old “fast guy leads off, slugger bats cleanup” template into something much more OBP-and-damage oriented. A lineup is basically a plate appearance distribution machine. The higher you bat: the more times you hit, the more runners you see on base, and the more total value you create over 162 games The leadoff hitter gets roughly 30–50 more plate appearances a season than the #4 hitter. Giving those extra trips to your best hitters matters. Old-school baseball people once treated leadoff like a valet parking position for the fastest guy on the roster, even if he had a .301 OBP and swung like he was late for a bus. #2 hitter This is now often the best overall hitter because: *they bat in the 1st inning almost every game *they hit with runners on *they avoid some empty bases situations *they still get tons of plate appearances Many analytics people think the #2 spot is actually the premium offensive slot. Why the Dodgers hit Ohtani leadoff Because: 1. elite OBP 2. elite power 3. elite speed 4. extra plate appearances matter You’re basically guaranteeing: More total Ohtani at-bats More chances for first-inning runs More chaos for pitchers immediately For example: 1. Betts 2. Freeman 3. Ohtani 4. Smith might create more RBI situations than putting Ohtani first, but over a full season, analytics generally favor: getting elite hitters more plate appearances front-loading offense avoiding weak hitters at the top

  19. Scott AndesMay 12, 2026

    I could do that Cassidy, but they have won back to back World Series. But every year I have called for Friedman to be fired and that they all suck and then shortly after the team starts to roll and goes on a winning streak. How much do my complaints make a difference? I dont know you decide. 😉 But if we knew for sure it made a difference, I would tell everyone they suck every day so they start winning games again. I am a total team player and willing to do anything necessary.

  20. BearMay 12, 2026

    3 titles in 6 years, yep, not bad. Beat in LCS in 21 by the eventual champion Braves. No shame there. Had their best record ever in 22. Won the first game of the LDS and then were beaten by the Padres the next 3 games. Why?” Inconsistent offense. Caused by what? Three true outcome approach to hitting might have something to do with it. 23, won the division by 10 games and then were swept by the D-backs in the LDS. They were 17-96 in that series. That is a .177 BA. They hit just .227 in the series against the Padres. If they had better and more consistent hitting, they might have 4 or 5 World Series wins.

  21. BearMay 12, 2026

    Absolutely true.

  22. Jeff DominiqueMay 12, 2026

    Yes for years. I have never believed in RVS and his 3 outccome approach to hitting. You like him? Good for you. Allow me to disaagree. The timely HR worked last year. But in 15 NLDS, NLCS, aand WS games, the Dodgers scored more than 5 runs in one game. That was the 18 inning Game 3. They averaged 3.6 runs per game in those 15 games. I am obviously glad they won. But if it were not for pitching, the Dodgers do not win lat year. When the HR is not there, they have to find a way to score runs. If you average 3.6 runs over 15 games, you better thank your pitching.

  23. MattMay 12, 2026

    Some people are never happy….geez….. Win 3 and 6 and now want 5 in 6….. ITS MAY!!!

  24. BearMay 12, 2026

    We all know that more care about OBP than BA. But being able to hit for average is an advantage to raising your OPS. Muncy’s OPS is high because he walks a lot and hits for power. Right now, Ohtani is doing neither. he has struck out almost twice as much as he walks. What fans care about is results, and wins, that trumps individual stats. Ohtani hasn’t looked like the same guy for several weeks. You can see he is visibly frustrated. He swings at way too many first pitches that he cannot drive. If you read the back of his baseball card, he should be able to pull out of it. So far, there have been no signs he is. His hard-hit rate is way down.

  25. MattMay 12, 2026

    So what Jeff you want 4 WS titles in 6 years 5 in 6? how about 6 straight?? Look at the Jays, Sox, Phils, Mets, Guardians, Mariners. 4 teams in the LCS last year, not one lighting the world on fire right now….. Baseball is hard teams are gonna go thru it, we are going thru it now, but trust the process…..

More from Dodger Talk

Dodgers Food Trailer

I did this interview a couple of weeks ago with Chef Mike, who runs the Dodgers Food Trailer for the Great Lakes Loons. They are there for every home and road regular season and playoff game. They prepare three meals a day for approximately 50 people (players and coaches). Since games end late most evenings, they do not prepare breakfast. Many of their hotels have a complimentary breakfast anyway. However,…

By Mark Timmons · July 17, 202673

Meet LAD 2026 Draft Picks 1-12

3 picks were High School players (2 SS and 1 OF). There was a college OF, college catcher, college SS, and 10 college pitchers. Of all the talk for a need for a catcher, the only catcher the Dodgers selected was Luke Bard, son of LAD bullpen coach Josh Bard. Bard was a 4th year senior from Houston Christian University. He is not a prospect, so the Dodgers are still…

By Jeff Dominique · July 16, 202674

Interview with Paul Beachy – Team Bus Driver For The Great Lakes Loons (LA Dodgers Minor League Team)

It’s been a few days since I did this interview. We have evidently been working my son-in-law (the video guy) like a rented mule at US Water Systems. However, I am taking him to London with me in a few days, so maybe Watford will buy him a pint as a tip, but he’s a dang Red Sox fan, so there is that! I thought that it would be interesting…

By Mark Timmons · July 15, 202652

Thanks for Your Service: Chris Taylor

I was going to do this post when Chris announced he was retiring, then he changed his mind, but since the chances of him ever playing for the Dodgers again are slim and non-existent, I will go ahead with this post. He unretired, went on the IL, then decided to call it quits on May 24th. Taylor was born in Virginia Beach VA on August 29th, 1990. He attended Great…

By Michael "Bear" Norris · July 14, 202676