What the Trends Are Showing
Mark was right, as were AVF and dodgerrick. Mark could be right and all that is required is patience for the (older) guys to start to produce. AVF and dodgerrick are right that this team may be getting too old to ignore. I doubt that anyone would disagree that this team is built…
Mark was right, as were AVF and dodgerrick. Mark could be right and all that is required is patience for the (older) guys to start to produce. AVF and dodgerrick are right that this team may be getting too old to ignore.
I doubt that anyone would disagree that this team is built on SLG, pitching, and defense. That is how they got to and won the last two WS. But, as the players age, bat speed will slow down. When bat speed slows, SLG starts to regress as well. Teoscar’s bat is noticeably slower.
Teo’s bat speed has gone from 71 (2023) to 73.2 (2024) to 72.9 (2025) to 71.8 (2026). That does not sound like a prescription for an upcoming change in his power numbers. His SLG for the last 3 years – .501, .454, .365. It is entirely possible that his adrenaline kicks in for the playoffs and the bat speed picks up.
After the first 14 games the Dodgers were 11-3. They are 13-13 since. They are 7-8 in their last 15 games.
Over the last 15 games, the team batting:
- BA – .241 (13th)
- OBP – .325 (9th)
- SLG – .367 (22nd)
- OPS – .693 (18th)
- Runs – 66 (19th)
- wRC+ – 98 (16th)
- HR – 11 (28th)
- Hits – 120 (20th)
That is a second level offense. If it were not for the pitching and defense, this team would not even be playing .500.
Want a larger sample size? Let’s look at the last 26 games since their 11-3 start.
- BA – .248 (13th)
- OBP – .329 (8th)
- SLG – .394 (18th)
- OPS – .723 (12th)
- Runs – 114 (16th)
- wRC+ – 105 (10th)
- HR – 26 (20th)
- Hits – 215 (14th)
Better , but not a top shelf offense, and it shows the trend is regressing.
Over the last 15 games, the team pitching:
- Team ERA – 3.27 (6th)
- SP ERA – 4.00 (14th)
- RP ERA – 2.12 (3rd)
That starting pitching ERA ballooned the last 2 games. It went from 2.76 to 4.00 . Surprise, because the SP was not good, the team lost both games by identical scores of 7-2. And all LAD runs were generated from 2-run HRs late, once the games had been decided.
Fangraphs does not allow for custom dates for fielding. Therefore, for the season, the defensive metrics are:
- DRS – 24 (2nd)
- OAA – 14 (3rd)
This is a good defensive team. Cubs and Boston are arguably better, but not by much.
Dodgers do not hit HR, they are a .500 team with pitching and defense.
NOTE – THIS WAS PREPARED BEFORE I LEARNED THE DODGERS CHOSE KIM OVER FREELAND
What is going on with individual players over the last 15 games:
- Andy Pages – .328/.355/.603/.958
- Kyle Tucker – .255/.371/.431/.802
- Max Muncy – .233/.353/.442/.795
- Shohei Ohtani – .234/.390/.362/.752
- Freddie Freeman – .220/.281/.322/.603
- Teoscar Hernández – .227/.358/.227/.586
- Will Smith – .250/.308/.389/.697
- Alex Freeland – .270/.357/.405/.763
- Hyeseong Kim – .262/.295/.333/.629
- Dalton Rushing – .188/.257/.188/.445
Pages has been fairly consistent throughout the season. He had a slump (as do all players), but he has seemingly broken out of that. For how long?
After a very slow start, Freeland has the #4 OPS over the last 15 games, and the #4 SLG. Will it continue? I do not believe so, but that is because I do expect the others to improve…Ohtani, Freddie, Smith, Mookie. I am not convinced he will precipitously drop, while I am sure others believe he will.
Teoscar is not hitting, but his OBP is up because he has the 3rd most BB on the team the last 15 games. Doesn’t help to drive in runs. Should Alex Call get more AB over Teo?
Since Rushing’s phenomenal start, he has been the worst hitter on the team the last 15 games. Over those 15 games, Smith has 39 PA and Rushing has 35. Maybe Smith should be playing more???
Two of the top 3 BA over the last 15 games are Freeland and Kim.
Mark is correct. This is a marathon and not a sprint. And the Dodgers seemingly know how to navigate a 162 game season, and then the be ready for the playoffs. At least for 3 of the last 6 years.
And dodgerrick is right that the games in March – May count the same as do games in August – September. The lineup is getting older. And with Mookie coming back, and Freeland or Kim going to the bench, it will be getting older.
Will dog days of summer impact the “older” Dodgers who are scuffling now? How will that impact the bat speeds. Only Shohei and Pages haves a bat speed above the 50th percentile. That is partially offset with 7 of 10 primary position players with barrel % rates greater than 50th percentile. Only Pages (45%), Tucker (39%) and Kim (23%) are less than 50.
There are a lot of questions, and nobody has the answers. Just guesses. I will continue to monitor trends, and hopefully they will begin to trend up rather than to continue to show regression.
Some will say that it has to get better, while others look at trends and age, and conclude it will not.
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Discussion (84)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I believe in you, Scott. Get to it!
So I guess the question is how long do you go with guys who aren’t hitting in 2026??? So if Ohtani and Betts are still crap in August do they still bat 1-2 because they have the highest OPS since 2020? If we are still winning I guess the answer is yes. After all we stuck with Conforto for all of 2025
“LOS ANGELES — Shohei Ohtani won’t hit in one of the final two games against the San Francisco Giants this week, but Dodgers manager Dave Roberts hasn’t yet decided if that will be on Wednesday when Ohtani pitches or on Thursday for what would amount to a mental reset day for the slumping superstar”.
As a long-time lurker who never comments on this site, this Dodgers team is too talented and deep not to win another World Series. As soon as Mookie Betts gets hot, the Dodgers will pull off a 12-15 game-winning streak.
10:10 PM ET Giants (17-24) Dodgers (24-17) SP Adrian Houser R 0-4 6.19 ERA SP Y. Yamamoto R 3-2 3.09 ERA Confirmed Lineup DH S. Ohtani L SS Mookie Betts R 1B F. Freeman L RF Kyle Tucker L C Will Smith R 3B Max Muncy L CF Andy Pages R LF T. Hernandez R 2B Hyeseong Kim L 64° Wind 8 mph Out Tonight we breakout with a WIN!
In 24, the season started with Betts leading off, and he was doing a great job doing that. Ohtani was doing fine in the 2-hole. That changed ONLY WHEN BETTS hand was broken on June 16th, against the Royals. In the second half, batting second, Mookie’s BA plunged 41 points, his OPS, 81 points and his OBP over 90. He is a .295 hitter as a leadoff batter; he has 52 leadoff homers. He hits just .277 in the 2 hole. His OPS is over .900 leading off. His OBP is 375. This season, Ohtani is hitting .219 leading off. His OBP is just .3342 and his OPS is .780. He has struck out 12 times and walked 5. His BA when swinging at the first pitch is .228. His OBP is .298. OPS .718. Sorry, they might have gotten the job done the last 2 years, but Ohtani is definitely not getting the job done now.
Matt, how long have you been watching baseball? It is not about what we want. It is about being more consistent. It is about a batting philosophy that prioritizes hitting the ball in the air, not meeting it square, the wat we were taught when we were young. Badger and I were both taught to hit line drives. Which translates into hard hit baseballs, not chasing out of the zone, and protecting the plate with 2 strikes. The only guys in this lineup that hit like that are Freeman and Smith. Everybody else is trying to hit a long ball all the time. Call is a contact hitter, his approach with 2-strikes is excellent. Did you watch Pujols when he was in LA? Power hitter, but when he got 2 strikes on him, he looked to go the other way. Also, I don’t look at things through rose colored glasses and say all is fine when it is blatantly obvious that the exact opposite is true. Doesn’t matter if it is May or September. I saw this team blow a 4-game lead with just 7 to play. So don’t tell me how to judge or watch a game I have been watching for well over 70 years. Maybe they will pull out of this, and maybe, just maybe, they are showing their age. Players slowdown in their 30’s and the Dodger lineup is loaded with age.
As I said Matt, as I said…
I agree with this. Top hitters should be hitting 1-2-3 to maximize more plate appearances per game. The rest of the order doesnt matter as much. Ohtani-Mookie-Freddie has been the recipe to their success for the last 3 seasons.
So what Jeff you want 4 WS titles in 6 years 5 in 6? how about 6 straight?? Look at the Jays, Sox, Phils, Mets, Guardians, Mariners. 4 teams in the LCS last year, not one lighting the world on fire right now….. Baseball is hard teams are gonna go thru it, we are going thru it now, but trust the process…..
We all know that more care about OBP than BA. But being able to hit for average is an advantage to raising your OPS. Muncy’s OPS is high because he walks a lot and hits for power. Right now, Ohtani is doing neither. he has struck out almost twice as much as he walks. What fans care about is results, and wins, that trumps individual stats. Ohtani hasn’t looked like the same guy for several weeks. You can see he is visibly frustrated. He swings at way too many first pitches that he cannot drive. If you read the back of his baseball card, he should be able to pull out of it. So far, there have been no signs he is. His hard-hit rate is way down.
Some people are never happy….geez….. Win 3 and 6 and now want 5 in 6….. ITS MAY!!!
Yes for years. I have never believed in RVS and his 3 outccome approach to hitting. You like him? Good for you. Allow me to disaagree. The timely HR worked last year. But in 15 NLDS, NLCS, aand WS games, the Dodgers scored more than 5 runs in one game. That was the 18 inning Game 3. They averaged 3.6 runs per game in those 15 games. I am obviously glad they won. But if it were not for pitching, the Dodgers do not win lat year. When the HR is not there, they have to find a way to score runs. If you average 3.6 runs over 15 games, you better thank your pitching.
Absolutely true.
3 titles in 6 years, yep, not bad. Beat in LCS in 21 by the eventual champion Braves. No shame there. Had their best record ever in 22. Won the first game of the LDS and then were beaten by the Padres the next 3 games. Why?” Inconsistent offense. Caused by what? Three true outcome approach to hitting might have something to do with it. 23, won the division by 10 games and then were swept by the D-backs in the LDS. They were 17-96 in that series. That is a .177 BA. They hit just .227 in the series against the Padres. If they had better and more consistent hitting, they might have 4 or 5 World Series wins.
I could do that Cassidy, but they have won back to back World Series. But every year I have called for Friedman to be fired and that they all suck and then shortly after the team starts to roll and goes on a winning streak. How much do my complaints make a difference? I dont know you decide. 😉 But if we knew for sure it made a difference, I would tell everyone they suck every day so they start winning games again. I am a total team player and willing to do anything necessary.
Batting average be damned. Statistically speaking, you want your best OPS players leading off. Dodgers OPS since 2020: Shohei Ohtani 1.025+ Freddie Freeman .944 Mookie Betts .899 Will Smith .875 Max Muncy .847 Teoscar Hernández ~.820 (Dodgers years only) Andy Pages ~.800 Miguel Rojas .668 Your best OPS hitters should get more plate appearances, which usually means batting near the top of the lineup. But baseball strategy has evolved from the old “fast guy leads off, slugger bats cleanup” template into something much more OBP-and-damage oriented. A lineup is basically a plate appearance distribution machine. The higher you bat: the more times you hit, the more runners you see on base, and the more total value you create over 162 games The leadoff hitter gets roughly 30–50 more plate appearances a season than the #4 hitter. Giving those extra trips to your best hitters matters. Old-school baseball people once treated leadoff like a valet parking position for the fastest guy on the roster, even if he had a .301 OBP and swung like he was late for a bus. #2 hitter This is now often the best overall hitter because: *they bat in the 1st inning almost every game *they hit with runners on *they avoid some empty bases situations *they still get tons of plate appearances Many analytics people think the #2 spot is actually the premium offensive slot. Why the Dodgers hit Ohtani leadoff Because: 1. elite OBP 2. elite power 3. elite speed 4. extra plate appearances matter You’re basically guaranteeing: More total Ohtani at-bats More chances for first-inning runs More chaos for pitchers immediately For example: 1. Betts 2. Freeman 3. Ohtani 4. Smith might create more RBI situations than putting Ohtani first, but over a full season, analytics generally favor: getting elite hitters more plate appearances front-loading offense avoiding weak hitters at the top
You don’t normally see Doc get pissed off in the dugout, but you could see that he was after that at bat by KIM. Later you see him reading the riot act to him, using the translator
Bear, Ohtani has actually taken the last 11 games of from “hitting”. .105 / .392 He may be batting but he ain’t hitting.
Thanks for the information, Mark, on Pee Wee starting the trend.
For years Jeff? We won 3 tiles in 6 years….!!!! What more do you want?
I want to return to when Betts hit 1st and Freeman 2nd. After that, rlrlrl So, Smith 3rd, Ohtani 4th, Pages 5th, Tucker
And some are happy with mediocrity . Not MMQB. I have been advocating for a change in hitting philosophy for years. At some point slug is not going to be there. Is it this year? Can’t say yet.
Mookie has more career leadoff homers, 52, than Ohtani.
Not according to what I read on yahoo sports. Roberts is giving him a 2 day rest., makes sense to me since he isn’t his weight lately.