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What Now?

I have been wrong more often than not this offseason: I thought Clayton Kershaw would retire; I thought the Dodgers would re-sign Kenley Jansen; I did not believe the Dodgers would sign Freddie Freeman; and I was surprised they traded AJ Pollock. I also hope I am wrong about…

By Mark Timmons3 min readJump to 53 comments

I have been wrong more often than not this offseason:

  • I thought Clayton Kershaw would retire;
  • I thought the Dodgers would re-sign Kenley Jansen;
  • I did not believe the Dodgers would sign Freddie Freeman; and
  • I was surprised they traded AJ Pollock.

I also hope I am wrong about Gavin Lux, but right about now, he does not pass the eye test. Too often, I see a “deer in the headlights.” Of course, I know that Andrew Friedman is a lot smarter than me and maybe he too believes that the cure for what ails Gavin Lux is to play the outfield. Maybe he solved two problems yesterday in getting a Closer and creating a spot for Gavin Lux. Maybe Gavin and CT3 will platoon in LH with Gavin getting the bulk of the playing time because over 60% of pitchers are RH!

Maybe Andrew Friedman is “singing out of the same hymnbook” as I am! I will give you that Gavin Lux has the tools to be a very good player… probably a star, but I believe that means he has to leave the infield. Maybe Andrew Friedman, Dave Roberts, and the Dodger Brass believe the same thing. Maybe the plan is to play him in LF. I could be right about this… or I could be wrong. I have been wrong before…

Is this the plan?

  1. Betts RF (R)
  2. Freeman 1B (L)
  3. T. Turner SS (R)
  4. Muncy 2B (L)
  5. Smith C (R)
  6. Turner/Rios 3B (R-L)
  7. Bellinger CF (L)
  8. Lamb/Alberto DH (L-R)
  9. Lux/CT# – LF (L-R)

Bench: Barnes – That’s 13 Position Players

Starting Pitchers:

  1. Buehler
  2. Urias
  3. Kershaw
  4. Gonsolin
  5. Heaney

Bullpen (that leaves 10 spots):

  1. Anderson (L)
  2. Cleavinger (L)
  3. Gonzalez (L)
  4. Vesia (L)
  5. Bruihl (L)
  6. Bazooka (R)
  7. Hudson (R)
  8. Moronta (R)
  9. Price (R)
  10. Kimbrel (R)

Now, they have to chop two pitchers by May 1st, also remember that Ferguson, Kahnle, Bickford, and Duffy will not be ready right away. That allows the Dodgers to start the season with 5 LH and 5 RH relievers. Moronta is a great middle reliever but is 1-12 in saves. Ouch!

What better way to show confidence in Gavin Lux than by creating a spot for him? “Here you go, Gavin – This spot is yours. Now show us what you have.” Confidence breeds confidence. Lamb and Alberto could be a potent DH Combo! and the Combo of Rios and Turner at 3B would be solid… if not spectacular. Finally, I like Muncy much better at 2B and that’s where he likes to play. Happy players are generally productive players.

That is my take… but don’t forget: I have been wrong before! On the other hand, you guys have never been wrong, so there is that! The Dodgers will miss AJ Pollock. AJ led the Dodgers in hitting last year (in players who played over 100 games) with a .297 BA and a .355 OB% with a .891 OPS. He also was one of the leading hitters in the post-season with a .314 BA and a .933 OPS. Those numbers are real! Don’t shrug them off. But if Kimbrel can be the guy we want him to be and if Gavin and CT3 can be what they should be, the team should be better.

However, that’s why we play the games… Today is the FINAL SPRING TRAINING GAME in Arizona. Tomorrow, Monday, and Tuesday they play the Freeway Series, and then on Friday, it’s on to Denver for the Opener! I am leaving for Florida on Tuesday and will be back Monday the 11th. Bear has a bunch of posts ready and I will be in and out. Our whole family has rented an Air B and B in Orlando and I also have the annual Water Quality Association Convention there Wednesday – Friday.

Of course, there will be a trip to Pirates Pub – Yes I am!

A Pirate Looks at 40, 70!

Discussion (53)

Disagree, not disagreeable

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  1. dodgerpatchApril 2, 2022

    “Profiles as a superstar”

    That sentiment seems like the consensus among professional evaluators.

    In 2019 in AAA he batted .392, with a walk rate of 14% and strikeout rate of just 18%. His OBP was .478, his slugging was .719 and his overall wRC+ was 188. Remember, a wRC+ of 100 is considered league average. His numbers were INSANE.

    This is why he was was ranked the No. 2 prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline, the third-best prospect by Baseball Prospectus, and No. 4 by Baseball America.

    “Raar, rrr … but scouting reports don’t mean a damn thing! raar rar!”

    Ok then, let’s refrain from crowing when the scouting reports say the Dodgers have a top farm system.

    Let’s take another look at the rating system for Lux from Fangraphs.

    45 / 60 60 / 70 65 / 65 55 / 55 35 / 50 30 / 30 70

    Those are the ratings for Hit, Game Power, Raw Power, Speed, Field, Throws and Future Value

    Pay special attention to that last number – 70. The ranking scale is 20-80, with 80 considered close to God/Babe Ruth mode. 55 is considered above average, 60 is considered All Star, 70 is considered top 10. So, Fangraphs, to cite just one example, consider Gavin Lux to be a potential top 10 player in all of major league baseball, and at least a future All Star.

    Yet, every time Lux goes 0-fer in a game he gets included in every hare brained trade scenario for some mid-tier starting pitcher. The Dodgers don’t need Frankie Montas or Mantaeaea, or whatever his name is. How many 3.50-4.00 ERA pitchers does a team need? We’ve already got five of them on the roster. We’re not trading away a potential future perennial all star for another. Stop this insanity!

    “Raar rrrr! He’s a scrub! Raaaar!” No, he’s not a scrub. I can think of no better endorsement of his future status than the Dodgers organization itself, which, by trading away their starting right fielder, guaranteed Lux more playing time. They haven’t given up on him. They know more than you or I or all the rest of the grumpy old men on this site know.

    Progress isn’t linear, unless it’s some guy I don’t like cuz reasons. We all have our biases. Trea Turner bugs me for some reason. I don’t think he’s a gamer. He looks like he drinks soy lattes. I figured it out, finally. He looks like that professional activist, David Hogg. I hate that guy! LOL

    Open on www.google.comhttps://www.google.com/search?q=david+hogg&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS946US947&sxsrf=APq-WBvRJSV9bdeBt4c2kSWdNbxIXPGb0Q:1648908600110&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&vet=1&fir=5f80b_ISZ1tF2M%252C5i2ncRGM5Ni1CM%252C_%253ByB4KxxqxXFCFOM%252CT3x2cvPsVv2dHM%252C_%253Bf5upMFsx3F5QxM%252C_Oqbiv58Kp2ygM%252C_%253B1u8EzZyud2444M%252CrCJ84s5ohPibUM%252C_&usg=AI4_-kQz9j7A5BMWqdezO3QqlZXqy022Lg&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj6o4Gbx_X2AhWdDkQIHSChA3cQ_h16BAggEAE&biw=1200&bih=624&dpr=2.5#imgrc=5f80b_ISZ1tF2M
  2. CassidyApril 2, 2022

    As usual everyone will play all over the place. And Lux will be a stud. And I’m never wrong. Just ask my wife! He was a slow starter at every level as a minor leaguer and then he took off and this is the year he does exactly that with the Dodgers! And did I mention that I’m never wrong? Enjoy your time in Orlando with the family Mark

  3. NorcaldodgerfanApril 2, 2022

    Hoping the offense can flip the switch on Friday because the ST numbers look horrible.

    TB does indeed need to get back and I don’t like the look of Moronta on the opening day roster. Not sure Bruhil makes the opening day roster either.

  4. dodgerramApril 2, 2022

    Dodgers need TB back. Soon.

    Other than that this team is LOADED. And DEEP.

    Go Dodgers!!!!!!!

  5. BulldogsandPenguinsApril 2, 2022

    Hey Mark, we know you bat about as good as Dodger regulars in Spring Training when it comes to predictions. Honestly, you were almost right about Jansen. I think the Dodgers wanted to bring him back and were trying to make a deal to do so. I certainly didn’t think AJ would be traded. Like you said, he’s productive. The caveat is that he isn’t on the field very often. I will miss the invisible man, or Rodney Dangerfield. For all the guys that wanted to trade him the whole time he’s been here, they got their wish.

    Honestly, Kenley’s results were very good last year. He was less than very good for several years. But, I personally hated seeing him out there. He gave me agida. If he walked someone, he would eventually wind up on second base due to Kenley’s inability to hold runners. Once on second, Kenley would become distracted, some kind of paranoia no doubt and would intentionally balk the runner to third. Who the hell does that? One day barely hitting 91, shoving 95 the next. His reluctance to throw anything but the cutter. Would it be sharp that day? Urgh! I’m glad he’s gone.

    Kimble is an assassin. Sure, he had a couple of bad years, but he is dirty as hell. He’s happy to be here and we suddenly go from committee to black death. Thank you for this trade Gomes!

    One guy just solidified this bullpen like concrete. He puts Treinen in his favorite position, to go against the heart of the lineup and frees up closers in training, Graterol, V-Gone, Vesia to focus on their craft for another year. Don’t forget about Kahnle! This could be their best bullpen ever.

    Gomes said left field will be a job share with CT3 and Lux, but not a straight platoon. So, someone is going to have to play second base. Albertero will probably play second against lefties and CT3 mostly against righties with Muncy in the mix at 2B, 3B and DH until he can prove he’s a second baseman. I could also see Muncy getting the bulk of the playing time there with Alberto coming in as a defensive replacement.

    This will be an interesting team, especially on defense. The outfield defense improves here. Lux will get better with reps, he has much better range than Pollock and a better arm. CT3 is already a much better outfielder than Pollock. With Belli’s range in CF and Mookie’s in right, the outfield covers a ton of ground and all will have above average to great arms. T Turner and Freddie improve the infield defense from last year. TT isn’t Jose Reyes, but he’s better than Seager with the glove. Freeman is a great big first baseman who fields his position and can pick it. Maybe as rangy as Muncy at 1B, but he’ll pick better and pull in more errant throws than Muncy with 5 more inches of height and a longer wingspan. JT isn’t the defender he used to be and Rios is acceptable, but isn’t ever going win gold gloves. Muncy at 2B is going be like a cross between Jeff Kent and Chase Utley. I’m not convinced he’s going to be a good second baseman and might end up being a square peg in a round hole and the next to be shipped away.

    Now, all we have to do is get guys hitting again and get Bauer out of the dog house.

    You certainly look ready for some Orlando time. Have fun out there and enjoy you’re workation. Maybe they can teach Lamb or Vargas to play second base in AAA.

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