What, Me Worry? – Alfred E. Neuman

The road to the ring just got a whole lot easier with the New York Mets getting embarrassed at home by little brother, San Diego Padres.  The Mets were supposed to be the second Juggernaut in the National League as reporters and pundits backed the East Coast iconic team that replaced the Giants and the Dodgers after their diaspora from New York Baseball.  Somehow along the way, they dismissed the Braves, last year’s champions and All-Star game robbery victims, as well.  They Mets appeared at the top of MLB’s Power Rankings, along with the Yankees as soon as those East Coast writers had a chance, wearing their bias on their sleeves. As their records faded they had to put the best teams back up top. Then they had the pleasure of watching the Mets “Big Two” split their starts and leaving their fate in the hands of A’s castoff Chris Bassitt.  The Padres delivered the death blow with 3 early runs and a really red-eared Joe Musgrove throwing 7 innings of zeros on one hit, one walk and 5 K’s. The day after, they quickly jumped on the band wagon to call Musgrove a cheater. I think they’re correct, but it looks like sour grapes. The reason they lost to Musgrove is because Scherzer couldn’t get the job done once again and Musgrove is better than Bassitt, red ears and all.

This was a great result for the Dodgers.  Little Brother struggled against us to the tune of a 5-14 record during the regular season and this run of dominance by the Dodgers has gone on this way for years. Now, we all know from our own history how regular season record doesn’t predict postseason success.  After all, we were 1-10 against the Mets in 1998 and sent them home when it mattered most.  But, this season, it’s hard to argue that it isn’t better to get a tune-up against the Padres before advancing to the next round where another potential postseason matchup against the Braves looms large, especially after the unknown of having close to a week vacation as a result of earning a bye.

The Wild Card round of the playoffs was a lot more excited than I anticipated.  The Cardinals choked a huge lead in game 1 against the Phillies and the Blue Jays, not to be outdone, said “Hold my beer” and delivered a bigger choke job against the M’s, both in front of their home crowds.  Scherzer proved why you don’t give $45 million a year to an aging vet, but at least they were in the fight after winning game 2.  The Indians were the only favorite to win their series, scoring a total of 3 runs in a two game sweep.  I was engaged in every game during the new format.  I never really was this interested in the Wild Card round in the past.

Now, we finally get to play a game and we get to play it under ideal circumstances.  Our pitching is lined up so we can set our rotation to our liking.  With the caveat that our two right handed starting pitchers are returning from a leave of absence.  Thankfully, the rest of the rotation pitched very well against the Padres this season. 

• Tyler Anderson vs Padres:  1.88 ERA, .877 WHIP, .183 Average Against
• Julio Urias vs Padres:  1.50 ERA, 1.042 WHIP, .180 Average Against
• Clayton Kershaw vs Padres: 0.75 ERA, .750 WHIP, .191 Average Against

So, What Could Go Wrong?

I can’t really say the Padres are hot.  Sure, they knocked off the Mets, but Scherzer looked like a batting practice pitcher throwing 94 MPH cookies over the heart of the plate and scoring 3 runs in 4 innings against a very mediocre-looking Chris Bassitt seems par for the course.  They couldn’t muster much against deGrom in game 2, but most teams can’t.  At least they played a series, so they won’t be rusty as far as the hitters are concerned.

We shouldn’t have much of an issue taking down the Padres, at home, with our best, rested pitchers chomping at the bit.  Julio and Clayton are as battle tested as they come and Tyler won’t have to pitch until game 3. The Padres are already playing defense trying to limit the number of tickets sold to Dodgers fans. I guess they like our money so they can fund payroll, but they don’t want mud on their face by having a sea of blue in their own yard with a nationally televised series.

All we need to do is stick with the script, don’t over-manage and let the game come to us.  The Padres will have to pitch their best pitchers on short rest, or send out whipping boys Manaea or Clevinger to start the series.  Your move Padres.

All Doc has to do is roll out the best lineup and not make the mistake of starting a less deserving player for a variety of reasons. I’m looking at you, Joey Gallo!

Let’s Keep it Simple, Stupid…

All nine of these position players should be locks.  The only exception is playing CT3 in LF against a left-handed starter.  Just roll out this lineup and don’t get cute with a “personal catcher”.  It’s the lineup that we’re very familiar with and I’m sure most will agree that this one is the best.  Don’t create your own risk trying to prove how smart you are…

• Betts RF R
• T Turner SS R
• Freeman 1B L
• Smith C R
• Muncy DH L
• J Turner 3B R
• Lux 2B L
• Thompson LF R
• Bellinger CF L

Again, don’t get too cute against a left-handed pitcher.  None of the lefties have large splits against lefty pitchers this year.  None of the bench players have done enough to justify such a move based on any kind of advantage.  The only platoon is pulling a right-handed hitting Trayce Thompson for another right-handed hitting CT3 against a lefty. You can always put Joey-G in LF as a defensive replacement late in the game.

How to use the Bench

Barnes, Gallo, CT3 and Alberto should be on the bench for most of the postseason, if not for it’s entirety. Doc says Vergas is a possibility, but I sure hope they don’t over think it.  We already covered CT3.  He should be used as a platoon in LF with Trayce against left-handed pitching.  If they’re thinking about Vargas for this role, they will run the risk of a ball being hit to him in the outfield that he can’t handle. The only other bench player to start a game should be Austin Barnes.  Austin should only play when there will be 4 games in a row without an off day.  Hopefully, they can line it up for a day game after a night game against a lefty.  When this happens, let smith DH and have Muncy play second base for Lux, or sit Muncy or JT depending on who’s coldest out of the three and depending on who’s on the bump for the opposition.

Gallo and Hanser should only be used late in the game to exploit a platoon advantage.  In Hanser’s case, when you need a guy to get on base, or advance a runner against a tough lefty.  With Gallo, when you need a homer or a sac fly against a righty in a do-or-die situation.  Gallo is a great defender and Hanser is at least above average at multiple positions, so you can use them when it absolutely makes sense to exploit an advantage without sacrificing defense late in a game.  Use them in a blowout late to “Stay Relevant” as our fearless leader likes to say.  But, don’t make them relevant by sitting a more deserving player.  Keep those guys hot.

Pitching Strategy

Let the starting pitchers pitch.  No early hooks like Rich Hill almost every time he pitched in the postseason.  Don’t put May and Gonso on artificial limits.  Let them keep pitching until they look like they’re fading.  Don’t even count pitches as pitch counts will likely lead to a bad decision.  Now is the time to use your eyes and keep them on the field and off the stats sheet.

For the most part, try to let relief pitchers finish their inning and to start an inning clean.  There are few in the pen that are used to pitching in back-to-back games, and even fewer pitching 3 in a row.  Do your best to avoid situations where they’ll be doing things you haven’t asked them to do all season.  Like when you had Morrow pitch 3 days in a row against Houston.  You have a couple of guys that like to come in and put the fire out.   Stick to those guys in that situation. Phillips and Graterol are up for the task.

What Keeps Me up at Night

I’m not concerned or worried about the opponent that we’re facing.  It’s not that I was afraid of the Mets, I was hoping for the Padres because it’s more satisfying to send them packing, especially after they beat the Mets.  I don’t fear the Braves or the Astros.  Both are great teams, but there’s only one historic team in this year’s postseason.

I’m not concerned about being overly reliant on the “Big Three” in the batting order.  Those guys need to show up to the dance with their dancing shoes on.  All postseason teams rely on their best players to show up one way or the other. If they don’t, you go home.  There’s only one team in this postseason has our depth in the lineup and that’s the Braves.  There’s just one team in this postseason that has our pitching depth and that’s the Astros.  I’ll put our 4-9 hitters against any other team.  Muncy and Belli are our worst two hitters on paper.  Belli is hitting a surprising .375/.346/.625/.971 over the last week of the season and is a solid, if underwhelming .278/.290/.431/.720 over the last month.  Much more than you can reasonably ask for in a number 9 hitter.  Muncy, on the other hand, has fallen back into bad habits over the last month of the season.  Hopefully, the time off allows him to reset.  He can come alive at a moment’s notice and usually does some of his best work in the postseason.

I’m only slightly concerned about the pitching staff.  Although, I strongly believe there are only good choices here.  I’m not as down on Kimbrell as others are and might choose him over another lefty against a team that crushes lefties.  I’m not concerned about Heaney’s homer problems.  Mark had a good suggestion about not letting him go more than two at a time.  My biggest concern is using May and Gonsolin as a reliever and / or using them with an opener. 

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again.  Let the teams like the Rays use an opener if that’s what they need to do to compete.  We don’t.  We could have easily called up Stone at the end of the season if we thought we would need another starter in the postseason.  Let the starters (and relievers for that matter) pitch in the situation they’re accustomed to pitching in. The problem with the statheads playing the game like “The Show” on their flat screen’s is that they don’t take into consideration the human part of the game.  Pitchers like their routines.  I’m sure if you asked them to be an opener, they’ll tell you what you want to here. I’ve been around enough players to know they would rather be in a spot they’re more comfortable being in, the role they’ve been used in during the season.  No starting pitcher would rather forego their schedule and pre-game routine to come into the game in the second inning. You don’t want to plant the seed that they aren’t good enough to face the top of the order.

Other than that, my slight concern is having too many lefties and/or too many starters. This is a great problem to have.  For this series, the extra lefty is of little concern.  I’m fine if they want to keep Heaney on the roster if they’re going to use him for 2 innings to give the pen a breather. If we do, we probably don’t need Ferguson, Vesia and Price.  They should know if they’re going with a 4 or 5 man rotation for this series.  There is no reason to go with a 5 man rotation so you shouldn’t have 5 starting pitchers on the staff with this deep and talented bullpen.  Let May sit this one out.  Here’s the pitching staff for this series…

I left the following pitchers off the roster for this series…

• David Price – Heaney and Price are a bit redundant and Heaney is better.  Unless, you think the name of the game is to keep Grisham off the field, go ahead, keep both, and say goodbye to Graterol. That’s a ballsy move!
• Craig Kimbrel – Too little too late.  But, stick around in case Treinen has to go back on the IL. We may need to stack righties at some point.
• Dustin May – Let him build up playing sim games and bring him back for Atlanta or the Phillies.  Don’t screw him around pitching out of the pen.  Nothing good will come of that.  There’s more than enough quality options in the pen.
• Michael Grove / Ryan Pepiot – Let’s hope we stay healthy enough that neither will be needed.
• Andre Jackson – I might use him in another series.  He was lights out in those few games at the end of the year, but 9 innings isn’t enough to let him leapfrog other options.
• Phil Bickford – Another guy I might use in another series.  If he’s showing progress in the sim games, I might use him over other options.
• Justin Bruihl – He wasn’t quite right this year.  See you next year, Justin!

My Biggest (only) Fear

The only thing that really keeps me up at night is Doc doing Doc things (The man behind the curtain pulling the wrong strings).  We’ve seen it all before, and don’t tell me you haven’t. Doc has made some brain dead moves in the postseason. MLB was kind enough to do us a favor by abolishing the more strategic, National League rules.  This dumbed down the game enough that you no longer really need much of a bench, or really even need to think about pinch-hitting.  The three-hitter rule for pitchers also helped Doc overcome his preference for loogys and roogys and his love for the unnecessary double switch.  Don’t over-manage the game and everything will turn out just fine.  Refrain from the desire to pinch hit, it will present itself when the time is right.  Don’t give anyone playing time to keep them relevant.  Now is the time to use your best.