What is your prospect capital line in the sand

OK...Humor me. I know it is like a broken record on Tarik Skubal, but he is the question everyone is looking for an answer for.

Where do you draw the line on player return for Tarik Skubal.  Are you okay with Sheehan, Sirota and Quintero?  How about Sheehan, Zazueta, and De Paula.  Many would say yes to that.  LAD is not getting Skubal for Ward, Freeland, and Ferris.  Copen and Serwinowski do not move the needle.

One can say Detroit would not require that kind of return.  Why wouldn't they?  They do not have to trade him.   How does anyone know what it would take to make a deal?  I certainly have no idea as to what it takes to make a MLB deal.   There were multiple reports that certain trades were not made because Dalton Rushing was required to be in the return. That seems to have worked out for the Dodgers. I do know that Chris Sale was not a Dodger at the 2016 deadline because CWS insisted on Julio Urias.  AF said no.  I have an unimpeachable source, who I will never reveal, tell me that Urias was the only stumbling block.  We can go back and debate that failure to make a deal, but it is evident that the Dodgers (and every club) have a certain group of prospects they are not willing to trade.  Who are those with the Dodgers?  It is irrelevant as to who I think they are.  The only one that matters is AF and he is not revealing. 

I know there are those out there who would say (and have said) at any cost.  Milwaukee needs Skubal more than the Dodgers.  Would they include Jesus Made in any deal? Detroit is going to want controllable pitching in return.  Would Milwaukee trade Harrison with Made?  More on what Milwaukee could offer below.

Sheehan is controllable for three more years which is why Detroit would insist on him as a part of any package.  They would accept Justin Wrobleski and his 5 years of control, but AF is hanging up on that request. I am sure many fans would say yes to trading Sheehan, but when has AF ever traded a SP with three years control?  Can there be a first time?  Certainly.  But there is more history indicating that he would not. 

Again, I read about the injuries to Snell and Glasnow.  But the surgery on Skubal's now twice surgically repaired elbow is ignored.  If he can come back from loose bodies, why can't Snell?  Those who dismiss Skubal’s injuries also dismiss that Snell can come back and be as effective as he used to be.

I agree 100% that Skubal would make the Dodgers better.  But Skubal guarantees nothing.  The Dodgers want to 3-peat, but they also want to be relevant for the next 5-10 years. 

1.    Who is to say that other MLB owners would not hold it against the Tigers for dealing Skubal to the Dodgers.  I know, the owners would NEVER collude, would they?  I have no idea as to whether that could happen, but I also do not know that it wouldn’t.

2.    What if there is more to the Mark Walter fraud investigation than they are letting on?  We do not have access to the LAD financial statements, so I have no idea what their liquidity is, their debt structure, or their future ability to raise funds. What were the $16B in loan funds used for? While Skubal's contract is not onerous this year, the Dodgers may not be able to sign FA next year, and they may need to hold onto their prospects.

3.    I am convinced that the new CBA will not include a salary cap.  MLB might insist on one, but MLBPA is not budging. Maybe the 2027 season is in real danger. Maybe the owners will be happy just sticking it to the Dodgers. The owners are making it known that they want to punish the Dodgers. Why they would do that is another conjecture story.  But it is clear that $$$ was not an impediment for LAD before the fraud allegations.  The 4th tier in the CBT calculations in the last CBA is referred to as the Steve Cohen tax.  So how would they punish the Dodgers?  Restrictions on total FA dollars allowed to be spent by one team…Maximum number of FA contracts in excess of three years or $50MM in total…Loss of significant draft picks, and bonus losses…Loss of IFA bonus $$$...With the possibility of being able to trade draft picks, not allowing teams in excess of a certain FA dollar amount to make such a trade.  Look for the Dodgers to be punished. MLB owners do not care about balancing the competition. They only care how to maximize their return on investment.

4.    Milwaukee needs Skubal more than the Dodgers and could put together a very competitive package for him.  Per an MLB writer some combination of MLB starters such as Brandon Sproat, Shane Drohan and Robert Gasser and top prospects like Milwaukee CF Luis Lara (MLB Pipeline’s No. 65 prospect), SS/3B/CF Jett Williams (No. 77) in AAA, and LF Josh Adamczewski (No. 88) in AA, gets a deal done.  When reading Josh Adamczewski, think Charles Davalan.  I cannot see Milwaukee trading 2 of the above mentioned starting pitchers. They are just too thin at SP. It is irrelevant as to what we may think.  Maybe Detroit prefers Sproat, Drohan, or Gasser to Sheehan.  If so, it is going to take a better prospect package. Maybe the top 4 LAD OF prospects are better prospects that Lara, but Lara is already producing in MLB with Milwaukee.

5.    From what I have read, the pundits believe it will take a controllable MLB starting pitcher, and 2 top 100 prospects.  Will AF pull the trigger on that, or will he do what has been suggested by connected journalists Sonja Chen and Katie Woo …rebalance the prospect list and look for depth/versatility? 

A lot depends on Shohei Ohtani's knee. Will he pitch again in 2026? If they do not believe so, then there will be more empahsis on getting a front line starting pitcher.

While there are reasons to go all-in this year, there are multiple reasons as to why they will not.  The Dodgers had glaring needs in 2024 and 2025, and they did not go all-in for either of those years.  Why would they change this year?  The Dodgers have won 3 of the last 6 WS, and Tarik Skubal was not part of any of those teams.  That is not a reason to not make the trade, but it does give some insight as to what AF’s appetite is for overspending at the deadline.

I am good either way it goes, because I do not believe that AF will irrationally react to the market.

 OKC Comets 9 – Las Vegas Aviators (A’s) 2

RHRP Carlos Duran was the opener in this bullpen game (bullpen game on 3rd game of series???).  In the first inning he gave up a leadoff double and run scoring single to the first two batters he faced.  Duran then retired the next 6 batters he faced.  

RHRP Jerming Rosario pitched the next three innings without surrendering a run.  He did allow a single and 1 walk, and struck out 1. 

Meanwhile, OKC put across 6 in the 3rd through the 5th.  In the 3rd with 2 outs, C Chuckie Robinson hit his 5th HR to tie the score. 

In the 4th, CF Alek Thomas singled and stole 2B.  He scored on LF Zach Ehrhard’s RBI single.  Kim singled Ehrhard to 3rd where he scored on RF Jack Suwinski’s single. 

In the 6th, with RHRP Paul Gervase on the mound for his 2nd inning , he walked the first two batters. The lead runner stole 3B and scored on a groundout. Gervase got the next two batters to end the inning. 

The Comets scored 3 in the 7th inning.  Chuckie walked and moved to 3rd on Freeland’s double (1).  Thomas doubled (12) both home, and scored on Ehrhard’s RBI single.

RHRP Wyatt Mills pitched a scoreless 7th and 8th, and RHRP Seth Halvorsen pitched a scoreless 9th to finish the game.  Halvorsen finished with 2 Ks.  Halvorsen threw 16 pitches (10 strikes), 7 at > 100 MPH, with his last one at 102.1 for a strikeout. 

·      Alek Thomas – 3-4, 3 runs, 2 RBI, 2 doubles (12)

·      Zach Ehrhard – 3-4, 2 runs, 4 RBI, double (21)

·      Chuckie Robinson – 1-3, 1 BB, 2 runs, 1 RBI, HR (5)

·      Alex Freeland – 1-4, 1 BB, 2 runs, double (1)

Box Score 

Tulsa Drillers 9 – NW Arkansas Naturals (KC) 3

LHSP Adam Serwinowski pitched a gem for 6 innings.  He allowed 1 hit, which was a HR in the 5th inning.  He walked 3 batters and struck out 6. It was by far his best game since June 26.

Tulsa had 9 cross the plate in the 1st three innings.  In the 1st, CF Kendall George led off with a ground rule double, his 10th.  DH Josue De Paula reached on a fielding error and George moved to 3rd.  George scored on 3B Jake Gelof’s SF. 

In the 2nd, LF Kole Myers singled and moved to 3rd on C Nelson Quiroz’s double (3).  Myers and Quiroz scored on SS Jose Izarra’s 2nd double. 

Tulsa put up 6 in the 3rd.  Gelof led off with a single.  RF Zyhir Hope followed with a single, but Gelof was out trying to reach 3rd.  1B Chris Newell hit a 2-run HR (17).  Myers was HBP and moved to 3rd on Quiroz’s single.  After the 2nd out, 2B Sam Mongelli hit a 3-run HR (1).  Tulsa was not done.  George hit his 2nd double (11) of the night and scored on a single by JDP.

Serwinowski served up a HR to 33-year-old former MLB catcher Jorge Alfaro in the 5th, his 11th. 

In the 7th, RHRP Cam Day allowed a run on a BB and 2 singles.  In the 8th RHRP Antonio Knowles allowed 2 singles to score a run.  

RHRP Lucas Wepf finished up the game.  He got two quick outs in the 9th but then allowed a single and BB before getting the final out. 

·      Kendall George – 2-4, 1 BB, 2 runs, 2 doubles (11)

·      Kole Myers – 2-4, 2 runs

·      Nelson Quiroz – 3-4, 2 runs, double (3)

·      Sam Mongelli – 2-4, 1 run, 3 RBI, HR (1)

·      Chris Newell – 1-4, 1 BB, 1 run, 2 RBI, HR (17)

·      Jose Izarra – 1-4, 2 RBI, double (2)

Box Score 

Great Lakes Loons 11 – Fort Wayne TinCaps (San Diego) 1

RHSP Hyun-Seok Jang was promoted to Great Lakes to start this game.  He did not exactly shine at low A Ontario, but the affiliates are running out of viable pitchers.  Jang is 22 years old and is still a prospect but needed to get bumped to Great Lakes. 

Well, he turned in perhaps his best start as a professional in his A+ debut.  More of these and he will find himself back in the Top 30.  In 6.0 IP, he was not scored on, allowed a double and 2 singles, no BB, and 8 K.  He was also efficient with 81 (51 strikes) pitches in those 6.0 IP. 

GL scored three in the 4th inning.  The first 6 batters reached base, and 3 crossed home plate.  SS Emil Morales led off with a single.  2B Logan Wagner, 3B Chase Harlan, and CF Jaron Elkins each walked pushing Morales home.  This was Elkins’ 1st RBI at GL.  C Gio Cueto singled to score Wagner, and DH Jose Meza walked to score Harlan for the 3rd run.  

LHRP Matt Lanzendorfer relieved Jang in the 7th and continued the scoreless game.  He did allow a single and BB, with 2 K. 

In the 7th, GL scored another 3.  RF Samuel Munoz led off with a BB.  With one out, LF Charles Davalan singled Munoz to 2nd.  Morales reached on an error to load the bases.  Wagner hit a 2-run single.  After a force out, Elkins got his 1st GL hit, and 2nd RBI. 

LHRP ody Morse pitched a scoreless 8th, even though he loaded the bases with a single and 2 BB.

Thanks to some pitcher wildness, a couple of singles, and shoddy defense, the Loons broke it open with 5 in the 8th.  Meza drew a leadoff BB.  With 1 out, 1B Victor Rodrigues drew another BB. Davalan singled to load the bases.  Morales reached on a fielding error with Meza scoring.  After the 2nd out, Harlan singled home Rodrigues and Davalan scored.  Morales and Harlan continued home on a throwing error on the play, giving the Loons 5 in the 8th and 11 for the game. 

RHRP Joseilyn Gonzalez entered the 9th.  He hit the first batter he faced.  He struck out the next batter, but the 3rd strike was a WP and the runner moved to 3rd.  The run scored on a single, and the shutout was no more. 

Pitching for Fort Wayne was RHRP Clark Candiotti.  Yes, he is the son of former LAD pitcher Tom Candiotti. 

·      Charles Davalan – 2-5, 2 runs

·      Emil Morales – 2-3, 2 BB, 3 runs, 1 RBI

·      Jaron Elkins – 1-3, 1 BB, 2 RBI

Box Score 

Fresno Grizzlies (Colorado) 12 – Ontario Tower Buzzers 2 

Ontario had a bullpen game of their own.  RHRP Jholbran Herder was the opener and went 2.1 innings allowing 3 runs on 5 hits with 3 K.  After 2.0 scoreless innings, Herder allowed 2 singles, and after a K, he gave up a run scoring double.  RHRP Jhonny Jimenez relieved Herder with runners on 2nd and 3rd and 1 out.  Jimenez gave up a 3-run HR.  Two of the runs were charged to Herder, while 1 was charged to Jimenez. 

Jimenez would pitch 2.0 scoreless innings after the 3rd. 

Ontario scored a run in the 5th when RF Abel Lorenzo reached on an error.  1B Mairo Martinus singled, and Lorenzo scored when 2B Kellon Lindsey reached on an error. 

With RHRP Javier Bartolozzi pitching in his 2nd inning of the night, he allowed a single with the batter reaching 2nd on an error.  The runner scored on a single making the score 5-1. 

RHRP Jose Vasquez entered in the 8th.  He walked the first batter, hit the 2nd, gave up a double scoring 1.  He threw a WP for a run, and the runner moved to 3rd where he scored on a ground out. 

In the 8th, Ontario scored their 2nd run when SS Joendry Vargas singled and 3B Javier Herrera doubled (8) him home.  

In the 9th, LHRP Peter Bonilla came in to pitch.  This was his 9th game with Ontario.  In the previous 8 games, he allowed runs in the 6 of them.  Things did not go better in this one.  He allowed 4 runs on 4 singles, 2 BB, and a SF.  He went into the game with a 14.63 ERA and left with a 17.00 ERA in 9.0 innings. 

The Tower Buzzers could only muster 2 runs when the top 2 batters in the lineup reached base 8 times. 

·      Mairo Martinus – 3-4, 1 BB

·      Kellon Lindsey – 1-2, 3 BB 

Box Score