Fans love to speculate and dream up trade scenarios. I have concocted many trades on this very site, and the next trade scenario I get right will be my first. I readily admit that I have never concocted a trade that came true. The problem is that we do not know how either team in a trade situation values the other players… or their own, for that matter. Still, we are always thinking about “what kind of deal will make the Dodgers better?” With the trade deadline forty-something days away, the fans are already restless.
The Dodgers are still odds-on favorites by Las Vegas to win the World Series, over any other team, by a HUGE MARGIN! So, when some of you Negative Nellies lament how bad the Dodgers are, I just call BS! Las Vegas is not in the habit of losing money. Next time you are there, look around… It was built by losers… which you would be if you placed a bet against the Dodgers.
Yes, the Dodgers are the favorites to win the World Series, but there is no perfect team. The bottom of the lineup needs to improve and I believe it will… either from within or from without! It is all within the realm of possibility that Gavin Lux, Kike Hernandez, Chris Taylor, and Austin Barnes step up their games, and it is also possible that Andy Pages, James Outman, and Miguel Vargas will become the players many think they can be. Shoot, maybe Andre Lipcuis will become an All-Star third baseman. It would help if Max Muncy could come back healthy in July or August.
- Max Muncy has a .798 OPS… just shy of .800
- Miguel Vargas has a .868 OPS in a small sample.
- Andy Pages has a .879 OPS against LHP
- James Outman had a .835 OPS in 2023 against RHP.
- Will Smith, Teoscar Hernandez, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Bettes and Shohei Othani all have an OPS above .800 (many over .900).
The Yankees have a team OPS of .770 (which leads all of MLB) while the Dodgers are at .769. OPS is more important than BA. If you don’t believe that jsut look at the tems with thebest batting averages in baseball: Houston and the Padres! OB% is also important and the Dodgers lead all of MLB in that (.35 to .334 over the Yankees).
Chris Taylor has been a loyal and Blue-Bleeding Dodger since 2016 and the Dodgers are loyal to him. He has been one of the faces of the franchise for nine years! His leash is long, but not unlimited. He will have to deliver soon or be a former Dodger. Kike is also struggling as is Gavin Lux (he has lately shown signs of life). Judgement Day is around the corner. The next thirty games will be pivitol, as to who stays and who goes.
I used to champion Alex Verdugo and Keibert Ruiz who were traded. I am fine if Vargas is traded for value. I just think some of the assumptions a few of you have are silly! But it is a free country. I would love to see Kyle Tucker as a Dodger, but that would have to be a BIG OVERPAY. Luis Robert, Jr. could be interesting, but not at Soto value. Then, there is Bichette. I am sure that Andrew Friedman is working the phones on all of them. It will be 40+ days before we know if there is really any traction.
JAMES OUTMAN & ANDRE LIPCIUS
Anyone who thinks I do not like James Outman is simply and truly devoid of reason. I want to see James Outman back and patrolling CF against RHP. It is my opinion and also Mr. Statistic’s opinion that he cannot hit LHP. Also Andy Pages cannot hit RHP (at least right about now), but there may be hope for him. They should platoon in CF this year.
What happens with CT3 is the linchpin… Unless he suddenly starts hitting, I cannot see him on the team by the All-Star break. I can see the Dodgers being cautious in bringing up Andre Lipcius. This is his 5th year in the minors and in the previous three years he hit 12 home runs each year. He is currently on track to hit 35+ and is OPS’ing 1.013. His career OPS was below .750 at the start of the season. The Dodgers hitting coaches tweaked his swing and gave him a little more uppercut and he took to it like a fish takes to water. Can he sustain it at the MLB level? I think the Dodgers have to find out. Max Muncy is back to doing some baseball activities, but it would appear that it would be (at least) July before he comes back and before he when down, he was OPSing .667 against LHP (.162 BA) with almost an .850 OPS against RHP. Lipcius would fit right in as his platoon partner.
The Dodgers are moving very slowly with Miguel Vargas and it is rumored by some that it is for two reasons: (1) RVS is working with him on his swing; and/or (2) Miguel addmitted that after his injuries and the resultant bad habits he developed, he also struggled mentally. He had never struggled at any level until last year and mentally he was hurting. I think that this is a calculated move by the Dodgers and he will get more playing time as we move forward. History will be the judge. We often see players struggle for a time as they move from one level to a higher level. Liranzo and Gelof are but two who have had difficulty moving from Low A to High A. That never happened with Miguel, so when he struggled on the MLB level last year, it was all new and he did not handle it well (according to him).
Finally, Teoscar was the NL PLayer of the week last week, but prior to that he was slumping, prompting for some to request he be platooned. So, right on cue, fans are clamouring for him to be extended. Teo is OPSing .849 with 16 HR, 14 doubles, 1 triple and 48 RBI. If he keeps that up, he will easily get a 4 year/$100+ Million Dollar Deal. Of course, he loves LA, but will AF give that kind of a deal a guy who will be 32 years-old next year? Maybe! He is a lefty killer as advertised with a .960 OPS aainst LHP, but also has a .805 OPS against RHP. Not too shabby!
Jason Heyward is a key. If he can get back to being an ,800 OPS guy then that changes a lot. He only has 65 PA this year and I think he has looked good at times. I see no residual back problems. He looks fine. Of course, Lux is who they are also waiting on… If he can’t get his OPS up to the high .700’s then the Dodgers may go after Bichette, but we have to remember that Toronto is not out of it, so a lot dempends upon what happens there.
Discussion (25)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Always nice to have the occasional blowout….
The eruption was no great revelation considering the talent on this team.
So what it today’s takeaway?
I’m going with Lux continuing to show signs of life. Will it save his job with the Dodgers? Perhaps not, especially if the brass truly wants Mookie at 2B sooner rather than later. But if Lux can increase his trade value, that would be great.
One speculated trade has Lux and two prospects headed to the Jays for Bichette. I’d feel better about this idea if Bo was a better fielder. But the deadline is weeks away…
Before then, I think the priority is to get Lipcius up to play 3B until Max returns. Lipcius really could be the next Max–a late bloomer whose career was revived by the Dodgers organization.
And Outman should get back to LA too. He is raking in OKC, and is probably the best centerfielder in the organization. He and Pages would be a strong platoon flanked by Teoscar and Heyward. Kike can be in the mix as well…. while we all wish Taylor the best on his future endeavors.
No let down against the Rangers tonight, just an old fashioned can of Ass Whuppin. Lux has looked better the last two games. Bottom of the lineup set thing up for the big boys. Bradley, do not believe everything you read on X. There are more scam writers on there who say stuff that is totally false. One guy even pretends to be Rosenthal. If someone actually gets traded, the web page of the team and MLB.com will report it. Dennis Santana picked up by the Pirates after being DFAd by the Yankees.
You don’t watch the games do you. Vargas went in in the top of the inning for Teoscar. Then in the bottom of the 7th Texas pitcher Tinoco got Taylor out hit Ohtani with a pitch then walked Freeman and Smith. At that point Bochy ram up the white flag. It just happened that Vargas was the first to face Knizer. No grand conspiracy about how the Dodgers view Vargas.
MLB.TV has blackout-ed me from watching this Dodgers/Rangers game. Is it because I’m in Texas, and it’s the Rangers?
Finally figured out a solution for Vargas. Time to platoon Ohtani!
Othani does not seem to be fundamentally sound in his base running decision making .
Was let off the hook by Smiths 3 run shot.
Mookie is not comfortable throwing the ball from short stop. Especially on routine grounders when he has a little time to think.
Looking a little yippsy?
Hope not.
By the trade deadline either Rojas needs to go back to short or they trade for a shortstop. Mookie needs to be off short and at 2nd for the playoffs.
Go Dodgers !!
Earlier, it was asked, and I will answer:
I would offer Teoscar 3 years/$70 Million.
I would also offer J-Hey a 1-Year $4 Mil Deal.
Seen on Facebook:
“Trevor Bauer:
• He has served his suspension.
• He hasn’t been found guilty of any crime.
• pitched well in Japan last year.
• Is pitching even better in Mexico this year
• Is seeking the MLB minimum contract.
The Astros are the one team that has reached out to Trevor Bauer’s camp regarding a “private tryout”.
Trevor Bauer this year for the Diablos Rojos del Mexico:
8 starts (6-0 record)
1.53 ERA
47 IP
70 SO
#mlb | #astros | #mlbnews |”
Keep em coming Bradley! Love it! Who would you trade AF and Doc for?
David Vassegh
@THEREAL_DV
Max Muncy is taking ground balls and throwing across the diamond. He wasn’t doing that last home stand . #Dodgers
10:10 PM ET
Rangers (31-34)
Dodgers (41-26)
SP Dane Dunning R
4-4 4.09 ERA
SP James Paxton L
5-1 4.19 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
SS Mookie Betts R
DH S. Ohtani L
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
LF T. Hernandez R
2B Gavin Lux L
CF Andy Pages R
RF J. Heyward L
3B Miguel Rojas R
67° Wind 8 mph Out
Now that Luis Robert’s Jr has been traded to the Phillies. And yiu think they gave a better trade offer for his then the Dodgers had. Time the Dodgers go after these three players to improve the team.
1. Tyler Oneal he can play outfield first base DH pinch hit way bettee hitters then the four in the benchhave now. now.
2. Bo Bichette go get him improves the left side of the infield and Betts slides back to secund base or the outfield which then so he doesn’t get worn out by october. Bichette will be more if a consistent hitters then you have had all year long in the bottom of the order
3. Mason Miller get him from the As improves the release pitching in playoffs a three headed monster Graterol Miller and Trieden.
Get read of taylor he needs to go bring up Lipcicus look at this lineup by doing this what yiu could do if you pick up these guys.
Betts cf
Ohtani dh
Freeman 1b
Smith C
Teo hernandez RF
Oneal LF
Lipcicus3b
Rojas 2B
Bichette SS
Betts 2b
Freeman 1B
Ohtani DH
Smith C
Teo hernandez LF
Heyward Rf
Pages cf
Lipcicus 3b
Bichette SS
Two different lineups of what you could do by adding those three guys. Improving the bottom of the order with Oneal Lipsicus and Bichette rather then Rojas taylor keke batting.
A good weekend series vs the Yankees.
Better fundamentals on defense and base running could have secured a sweep . And of course improvement WRISP.
So do we win any of these games without Teoscar. (Maybe)
I consider Betts/ Othani/Freeman and Smith stars. Don’t get me wrong I’ll take that all day. All potential HOFers. But will they be regular season HOFers and postseason underperformers?
So how did the big 4 in this high profile, sold out, national tv contest perform. And I’m not buying it’s just a couple of games in June
This was a playoff atmosphere. (I was there)
Betts: 3 for 12 – 2rbi
Othani: 2-13- 1 rbi
Freeman:2-10- 2rbi
Smith: 1-11 – 1 rbi
So in total :8-46- 6rbi
That’s a .174 batting avg?
So postseason :
Betts -58 playoff games
251 BA and 710 OPS
Great in 2020 postseason and good in 2021. Total shit in 2022 and 2023. Is this the new playoff Mookie. I hope not.
Othani- No history. Will the lights be to bright in the postseason
Had a poor high profile NY series , but to small of a sample size . (I don’t love his approach/ swing with men on. Although he only stuck out once, in the series , so that’s a good sign.
Freeman: 49 playoff games
285 BA and 914 OPS
Great 2022 series with LA and shit 2023.
Freeman historically is very good in the playoffs. I hope 2023 was just an off series
Smith: 41 playoff games
221 BA and 687 OPS
Great series in 2021 and 2023 and 3 poor playoff series.
If we are going to make a serious run in the postseason over the next 7-10 years these 3-4 guys must perform in the postseason or we are going to have ecstatic regular seasons and Frustrating playoffs.
Learn how to catch the ball, run the bases, bunt and hit with freakin men in scoring position
Go Dodgers!!
Now that the NYY – LAD series is over I liked something I read: “so far the Yankees have the best record in MLB but the Dodgers have the best roster.”
100% agree with that !!!
1 – Miguel Vargas can’t play OF. He takes the worst routes that I have seen in a long time. His baserunning snafu on Sunday makes me question his baseball IQ. He’s a guy without a position – He’s not going to DH for the Dodgers or play 1B either. I think that the combination make him a trade candidate.
2 – In this sense, he is more like Michael Busch and less like James Outman and Andy Pages, who are both competent defenders.
3 – A backup catcher who can’t hit is not really a problem. A starting 2B, 3B, or OF who can’t hit is a problem. Pages is OPSing .721, which isn’t great but is acceptable. Gavin Lux is OPSing .560, which is not. Kike Hernandez is OPSing .587, which is not. Why not try Andre Lipcius? What else can he do to show that he might be an MLB caliber player? It wouldn’t be the first time that the Dodgers have found a diamond in the rough (eg Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor).
4 – If you are hitting .102 with a .314 OPS and have K’d 41 times in 88 AB after 40% of the season is gone, what else do you need to know that it isn’t going to work? Other than money owed, why else is Chris Taylor still on the team?
5 – The Dodgers can afford to play the long game with Walker Buehler for a while, but how much longer? With Miller and Kershaw looking to return soon, I expect to see Paxton out of the rotation. But if Buehler isn’t better soon, he might also be looking to pitch out of the bullpen.
6- With all of the accolades coming Teoscar Hernandez’ way lately, it wasn’t long ago that many (including me) were complaining about his tendency to K too much and leave too many on base. He has 49 RBI. He has 16 HR meaning that he has knocked in 33 other players. He has 142 LOB, most in baseball. Second is Jorge Soler at 129. He’s been good at times but not great. Teo also has 81 K in 256 AB, leading the team by 20 (next is Ohtani at 61). That’s a 32% K rate. That’s 5th in MLB.
Morning Mark, thanks for another interesting thread, and thanks again for the effort you put in for us. Hope you’re enjoying the new digs.
However, as one of your Morons I feel it is my duty to inform you that your understanding of betting and more specifically “odds” leaves a little to be desired.
The term “Odds On” means an event that is rated at more than a “Evens” chance of happening.
This is certainly not the case with the Dodgers currently as they are 3/1 to win the World Series, so in simple terms, you place a bet of one dollar to win 3 dollars, which is obviously much bigger than an Even money, which would be place a dollar to win a dollar (plus your original stake back).
For them to be “Odds On” say 4/5 you would need to place a bet of five dollars to win 4 dollars (plus your stake back). That is what “Odds On “ means.
It is fair to say we are the favourites though, with the Phillies at 4/1 here in the UK.
Had a few pals, not really Baseball fans like me, who went to the London Series over the weekend and thoroughly enjoyed the experience.
Unfortunately because of the Ohtani effect the Dodgers will be doing their overseas games in the Far East for the foreseeable future which is a great shame.
Just to say that I’m just about to move into central London on July 1st, which I’m very excited about. It’s always been an ambition of mine and at 58 I’m finally gonna fulfill it.
Hoping the Dodgers will get a chance to play the London Series at some point. Be good to see some of you over here.
Might have to change my name on here!!
It was originally my intention to do a ten day trip to NY to take in both the Mets and Yankees series, but unfortunately the move is imminent and the costs were just too prohibitive. Would have seen 5 out of Six wins though……
I love Teoscar great attitude and came big against yanks and a solid outfielder. Looks like a great teammate and wants to win. This is not a criticism of him because performance is the bottom line. The yanks pitching staff set up well for him. Their pitchers tended to be fastball/changeup not with the slider. He is the number 2 hitter vs. changeups this year according to the broadcast. He also faced a lefty which changes the slider effect. Kahnle came in and threw changeup after changeup. He did a lot of damage on the change. He faced more sliders last year than any hitter in baseball for a reason. The yanks couldn’t take advantage of that with their pitchers. Great series!! Great guy!! But factor that in.
If Teoscar wants to stay here, i wonder what type of deal he’d want. 3years, 75 mil?
Wayne*
Book Em
Hey Wanye good take on Vargas. I’m not sure if stashing him on the 26 man roster will help his trade value or resonate with other GM’s , but that remains to be seen. That’s 2 good takes on the Vargas situation. And both will probably end up out in left field.
All I know is that no matter what Vegas says betting against the Dodgers to win a WS the past ten years wins you a lot more money than betting for them. You should never think that you’re good enough. Be pigs. Go get Robert Jr.
Mark, I enjoyed the thought piece and have no major beef with it. I’m excited about some of the returning arms we have and think Knack could be traded because we don’t really need his depth right now and he belongs in a major league rotation.
Good morning Mark. A nice write up today. I think most have been guilty of knee jerk reactions to players performances. It’s a long season and even the very talented Mookie, Shohei, Freddie, Will, and certainly Teoscar are going to have their down times.
And, the criticisms of the prospects that come up to play for the Dodgers is even more pronounced. We all want instant success from them. After all, they are part of a tremendous, highly regarded, Dodger development system. Yet the position players that are promoted have not been instant All Stars and have struggled. You know, like the stars on the team do.
Last year, James Outman started out strong and then faded for a couple of months. But, he was given the opportunity to work his way back to become a productive player offensively and defensively.
With Miguel Vargas it was a different story. He was injured with broken fingers in spring training which caused all sorts of bad habits. I felt the Dodger staff did him no favors by playing him when he wasn’t fully recovered. I think this might have been do to the Lux injury. Unfortunately, he was eventually sent back down to get his swing and mental issues ironed out. Now, he’s back with the team and not playing much. Like was mentioned no one can figure out why. To work on his swing with major league coaches? And then not using that coaching in a game on a consistent basis? Doesn’t make much sense to me. I guess we have to trust the approach. I’ve liked Vargas since he first came up. But, it seems like the Dodgers have done a below average job in developing his talents not only offensively, but on defense as well. I believe his Dodger future will be clearer by seasons end.
Andy Pages is the most recent call up that has had his struggles with the bat and in the field. He started out nicely and then had trouble making contact with up in the zone fastballs. He has recently started to hit again, but the high hard pitches are still being missed too often. I love his swing and attitude at the plate. He needs to make more contact. I think he will. His defense is a work in progress and was apparent in the Yankee series. Mark’s idea of a Outman-Pages CF platoon might be a good idea for this season. I’m not a big platoon guy, but in this case it could give them an opportunity to be successful. And, therefore, help the team win a championship.
I mentioned how it’s a long season with lots of ups and downs. There was an article in the Athletic yesterday where they asked players their feelings on shortening the season. As expected, the answers were all over the place. The players playing for money answered “no way. you ain’t taking my money”. Lovers of playing baseball wanted the season to be longer. Really? One suggested going to 120-125 games with more time off in season. Another player thought 140-150 games. With the expanded playoffs I’m in this camp. But, it the regular season schedule will not be reduced because the owners (and players) want the money.. What’s good for the game and the fans is irrelevant. Another reason for not altering the schedule was because of the cherished records and stats that the media and fans love. I think the way the game is played now days their will be fewer and fewer records broken. Especially with pitchers. We might not see another 200 game winner with the limitations on pitchers’ use. The starting pitchers’ value is being reduced in the past 10-15 years. They throw less pitches yet seem to be injured more often. This not a recipe for breaking records. But, a subject for another day.
Carry on.
If you see a guy with a Max Homa Dodgers jersey at Pinehurst this week….thats me.
There will be an inevitable let down this week playing the Rangers and KC, it is what it is.
We showed we can handle both the Braves and Yankees. Phils are next….
Yesterday Mark, you wrote to me — Here’s my response —
I don’t know if I have any logical explanation, but for sure, you’ve already stated multiple times you are equally baffled by what the Dodgers are doing with Vargas.
But as for me, I believe the Dodgers, some time ago, concluded they want to move Vargas by the trade deadline. And since a hurt/injured-Vargas would basically cripple that plan, they needed to severely limit his playing time to minimize his injury chances and “preserve” his trade status. The problem is they had no legit excuse to reduce Vargas from a full-time to a sparingly-used player at OKC. Hence, the Dodgers brought Vargas up to LA to conjure up “rational excuses” (i.e. “slow-walking” “acclimation” “working on his hitting and/or fielding” yada, yada, yada) to play him sparingly, ..thus, preserving his health and trade status. And that’s what I think is happening.
Mark, you think the Dodgers “love” Vargas — I don’t. Now you can poke holes in my “explanation” all you want, call it moronic, or whatever. But regardless, unfolding events will eventually tell the tale.
If you’re right, it’s logical to presume Vargas (barring an injury to him) will have a greatly expanded role on the parent club by August 1, or sometime soon thereafter.
But if I’m right, ..barring injuries to other players that necessitates Vargas remaining with the parent club.. Vargas won’t be in LA by the end of July, because he’ll be either traded or back in OKC by then.
So by August 1, we’ll know who’s right or wrong about Vargas based on which outcome comes to pass.
Let’s see what happens then. Is that a deal? Okay
And btw, I’d rather be wrong about Vargas, because if the Dodgers really think he’s as good as you think he is, and he actually plays up to that level, then that would resolve the some of the problems the Dodgers have with this present line-up for the rest of the season.