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LA Dodger Talk

What do the So-called Experts Know?

Absolutely nothing! Fox Sports named the Los Angeles Dodgers among the Loosers at the trade deadline. ESPN+ also included the Dodgers among the losers. The Athletic called the Dodgers “snoozers.” MLB.com listed seven teams as winners… but not the Dodgers. The Sporting News…

By Mark Timmons4 min readJump to 106 comments

Absolutely nothing!

  • Fox Sports named the Los Angeles Dodgers among the Loosers at the trade deadline.
  • ESPN+ also included the Dodgers among the losers.
  • The Athletic called the Dodgers “snoozers.”
  • MLB.com listed seven teams as winners… but not the Dodgers.
  • The Sporting News listed the Dodgers among the trade deadline losers!
  • Yahoo Sports named the Doders among the losers.
  • SI.com had the Dodgers even but said. “But it’s reasonable to wonder why another pitcher or two wasn’t added instead.

Damn the experts- what do they know? It turns out… very little. They do not understand Andrew Friedman. Some of you don’t either. The experts were wrong about the Dodgers trade deadline acquisitions, and when they parrot that the Dodgers will be prime players for Ohtani, they are really uninformed! While some of you seem to love to beat the Shohei Ohtani drum over and over (maybe magically thinking that the more you say it, the more true it becomes), you have to understand that Andrew Friedman understands how to mitigate risk. Signing Ohtani for $500,000,000 million dollars is like buying a large amount of just one stock for your financial portfolio. No one in their right mind does that! Andrew Friedman is not afraid of risk – he understands statistics and probability, but he also understands how to hedge his bets. Andrew Friedman can buy four other very good players for what Ohtani costs. Let that sink in.

Would you rather have one superstar who pitches and hits or four more really good players to go with your existing cadre of stars? At 30 years old, I do not care how much Ohtani trains and works at his craft – he is entering the years where he absolutely will experience an injury, and since he is both a hitter and a pitcher, you can double that exposure. Something very strange will have to happen in order for him to sign Shohei.

Many of you concocted all sorts of trades for all kinds of players, “The Dodgers need two more starters, a RH bat, and a lockdown reliever.” I have been watching Andrew Friedman for years and knew he was not going to gut the farm in order to do that! Instead, he took the approach that he needed two platoon players who hit lefties well (Kike and Rosario), and he got a reliever many of you despise (Kelly). Then he went out and got an “innings eater” in Lance Lynn… banking that a tweak here and there and being on a good team could change everything, and a swingman lefty who is also an innings eater. While everyone was playing checkers and thinking of that next big move, Friedman was playing chess. Perhaps no team has improved at the trade deadline as much as the Dodgers. Yet, many of you persisted in proclaiming that Friedman was crazy… like a fox, he was! He also understands “team chemistry” and how important that is!

All year, many fans have been chanting that the Dodgers needed to trade Busch, Vargas, and others for a proven hitter or pitcher. You haven’t been paying attention. Yes, Andrew traded for Betts in a blockbuster deal, and he signed Freddie Freeman, but he also got JDM for $10 Million (which may be the steal of the century), and now he has to try and sign Will Smith long-term (that won’t be easy). Max Muncy has a $10 Million option next year that is a no-brainer. Matt Chapman, anyone? It’s possible, but have you been watching Andrew?

A few days ago, the Dodgers traded two lower-level minor leaguers to the White Sox for international bonus pool money. The Los Angeles Dodgers went into the 2022-2023 international signing period with only $4,144,000 to spend, which is tied with the Texas Rangers for the lowest bonus pool in the Majors. So, they beefed up that amount (Yawn, “So what?”). What’s the big deal?

That’s the big deal! AF is playing chess – stick to checkers! There’s a reason that his won-loss record over the past ten years is dramatically better than anyone in baseball… BY A LARGE MARGIN! Again, before some moron says, “You think he’s perfect!No, I do not. In fact, I have not gotten any Dodger Press Passes since he took over, and I blame him! That, however, is a story for another day.

Yesterday’s News

  • Taking 3 out of 4 from the Padres in their own ballpark was awesome, but to beat them down in the process was priceless!
  • The Dodgers are now four games ahead of the Midgets, nine games ahead of the Titanic Diamondbacks, and 11 games ahead of the Clowns down the road! The Dragon up the Freeway just killed your season Peter Seidler! Boo Yah!
  • Tony Gonsolin was able to throw 93 to 94 MPH, but he was also throwing a lot of junk. It’s easy to say he has arm issues, but I don’t think that is it. I tend to think that both he and Julio are victims of their success. Other teams have studied them and are more in tune to what they are doing than before. They need to evolve.

How about a little Fatboy Slim?

Discussion (106)

Disagree, not disagreeable

Be civil — moderation is real. Links may need a moment of review.

  1. Duke Not SniderAugust 9, 2023

    Yeah, when the SP is good, the bullpen falters sometimes.

    But Julio’s start is really encouraging. Now we wait on Kershaw….

    And let’s not forget Outman!

    No hits tonight, but also two walks and zero strikeouts. Good plate discipline. He followed his second walk with a stolen base. That set the stage for Mookie to drive him in with an insurance run that proved to be the winner.

  2. WayneAugust 9, 2023

    Good news – Urias is turning the corner and getting better.

    Bad news – Vesia/Graterol/Phillips gave up 4 runs over the last 3 innings.

  3. BobbyAugust 9, 2023

    I’m really starting to like this “team” type play we got going on

  4. CassidyAugust 9, 2023

    Arizona was 50-34 on July 1st. Now at .500. Ouch! It’s a 162 grind and no one does it better than our Dodgers.

  5. Mark TimmonsAugust 9, 2023

    I think he will soon slot in places 1-4!

  6. Singing The BlueAugust 9, 2023

    Just announced that we’ve signed Jang, the 19 year old Korean pitcher.

  7. WayneAugust 9, 2023

    Martinez scratched from this game for the same groin/hamstring issue he’s had for a week now. His bad back and ding-ups remain a concern for the rest of the season.

  8. John DollAugust 9, 2023

    Bear, my home is about five hours from Denver unfortunately my job has me on the other side of the State for stretches of time. The last week of September the Dodgers are in Colorado in midweek. I have meetings on the 28th of September but they are late afternoon and early evening. I will be going to at least two of the games, not sure my body could handle a doubleheader. I’m hooked up so I can get us good tickets for any of those games. Let me know if you’re interested. The only way I won’t make it is if it gets cold which can happen in Colorado in late September. I’m not sure how I can reach out to you without making my email public, hopefully you can figure it out so we can make plans if your interested.

  9. John DollAugust 9, 2023

    While talking about what the Dodgers do next season and the Ohtani talk, my concern is Will Smith. I’d take over any catcher in baseball at this point. Though Barnes has been much better offensively by playing small ball (which is a good role for Barnes), he still has difficulty throwing out runners because of a below average arm. How many more years are we going to play Smith at catcher? His bat, his approach, his presence is everything one would want on their team for a long time. Smith isn’t big in stature the grind has to take a toll on his body. Do we have anyone in the minors ready to step up and be able to not only catch but produce for the Dodgers a couple of times a week. Our minor league teams have potentially great catchers but they’re not ready for prime time. The free agent market for catchers isn’t good. I would love to know what the Dodgers plan with Smith is going down the road. Do they believe that one of the youngsters in the minors will be able to step up in a year or two? It’s been stated several times that eventually Smith will end up in left field or third base. I’m hoping one of our catchers develop or we take to our outstanding minor league system and trade for a high MLB ready catcher.

  10. Mark TimmonsAugust 9, 2023

    The OKC Dodgers lost this afternoon to the Tacoma Raniers, but Busch was 1-3 with a 3-run HR and two walks, and Vargas was 2-4 with a walk.

    Montgomery got bombed to the tune of 8 runs in 2.1 innings.

  11. philjonesAugust 9, 2023

    I loved Aaron Boone’s act that got him tossed by Liz Diaz. It was right up there with some Tommy, Lou Pinella and Billy Martin acts. Diaz missed 19 pitches in the game. He called 17 true balls, strikes. That’s a 66% accuracy rate. Just slightly better than flipping coins.

    2 questions come to mind:

    How does Diaz keep his job?

    Where’s the ABS?

  12. Mark TimmonsAugust 8, 2023

    DODGER PRESS RELEASE

    DODGERS RECALL VICTOR GONZÁLEZ

    LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers recalled left-handed pitcher Victor González and optioned left-handed pitcher Bryan Hudson.

    González, 27, returns for his third stint with the Dodgers and he is 2-3 on the season with a 5.32 ERA (14 ER/23.2 IP) and 22 strikeouts. He has been with the Dodgers parts of three seasons, and he is a combined 8-4 with a 3.52 ERA (31 ER/79.1 IP) and 78 strikeouts against 28 walks. With Triple-A Oklahoma City, he was 2-0 with a 2.60 ERA (5 ER/17.1 IP) and 19 strikeouts in 17 games. He has pitched in 156 minor league games (57 starts) and he is a combined 22-28 with a 4.26 ERA( 198 ER/418.0 IP) and 413 strikeouts. He was signed by the Dodgers as an international free agent on July 2, 2012 from Tuxpan, Nayarit, Mexico.

    Hudson, 26, pitched 2.0 innings, allowing one run on two hits yesterday against the Padres. He is 0-0 with a 7.94 ERA with four strikeouts in three games for the Dodgers this season. He is 5-0 with a 2.61 ERA (12 ER/41.1 IP) and 66 strikeouts in 36 games for Oklahoma City this season. He is a combined 36-27 with a 4.23 ERA (234 ER/498.1 IP) and 434 strikeouts in 186 career minor league games (74 starts). He was drafted by the Cubs in the third round of the 2015 First Year Player Draft out of Alton High School (IL).

  13. Andrew Vincent ForteAugust 8, 2023

    DODGERS MINOR LEAGUE NEWS

    Gavin Stone, Yusniel Díaz, Wilman Diaz win player of the week honors

  14. Andrew Vincent ForteAugust 8, 2023

    9:40 PM ET

    Dodgers (65-46)

    Diamondbacks (57-56)

    SP Julio Urias L

    8-6 4.69 ERA

    SP Brandon Pfaadt R

    0-5 7.11 ERA

    Confirmed Lineup

    2B Mookie Betts R

    1B F. Freeman L

    C Will Smith R

    3B Max Muncy L

    DH J. Martinez R

    LF D. Peralta L

    RF J. Heyward L

    CF James Outman L

    SS Amed Rosario R

    In Domed Stadium

  15. NH DodgerAugust 8, 2023

    1. While I agree with Mark regarding Andrew Friedman, it may be too early to spike the ball. These same publications and sites that rate Deadline Winners and Losers the day after aren’t different than writers that grade NFL and NBA drafts the next day. Way too premature. I think the fact that Friedman and the front office targeted specific skill sets (innings eater in Lynn who takes the ball every fifth day, right handed hitters who hit left handers well, a reliever in Kelly with post season experience and a second starting pitcher in Yarbrough) and acquired these players for little cost in terms of money and prospects make it likely to succeed. It was a good plan, in my opinion, and well-executed. The early returns are promising.

    2. This Dodger team really has a great baseball character. They have shown that all year and it is a quality that makes them different than last year’s team. They are a very close baseball team that does appear to have everyone rowing in the same direction. There is no doubt that they added players at the deadline who would fit in this culture that exists on this team. And they seem to have fit in seamlessly. Guys have accepted their roles and are happy for the success of their teammates. Coming back from a five run deficit in San Diego on get away day when they had already secured a split of the series says a lot.

    3. I think the Dodgers will make a run at Ohtani but on their terms. I am fine with either outcome. Signing Ohtani at 30 years of age to a long term contract as a pitcher and DH is not the way AF has done business in the past. Ohtani wants to get paid as a hitter and a pitcher but if he is injured, you likely lose him as a pitcher and a hitter which means you need to replace him with two players. That is a greater risk in this signing than say, Soto after the 2024 season. But there is a return on investment that Ohtani brings to the Dodgers that no other acquisition would bring. This signing has implications that would go far beyond the on-field impact. Either way this goes, they are going to continue to be among the best teams in baseball for the foreseeable future. So with or without him, I am fine with the outcome.

  16. Watford DodgerAugust 8, 2023

    NOhtani

  17. philjonesAugust 8, 2023

    * Gonsolin went from CatManDon’t to CatManDo with an 8 run forth inning.

    * The starting pitchers gotta love 59 runs scored the last 7 games.

    * Tatis displayed why I hate the Padres showboat style of play so much. In the top of the 9th Kike hit a routine fly ball to right. Tatis lazily cruised over, hot-dogged the catch as if was an inconvenience to bother and flipped some cross-body throw, Robbie Cano Style, back to the infield. He took a routine catch and turned into a flashing neon “look how cool I am” moment.

    He didn’t look quite as COOL a previous inning when he made a throw from right to home about 20 feet up the line. What a dick.

  18. John DollAugust 8, 2023

    The Dodgers have two wonderful veterans that unfortunately can’t hit left handed pitching, Muncy and Heyward. If I was in management there would be a number of variables that would come into play when building a roster. Position depth, clubhouse presence, salary, etc. As a fan, I take salary out of the equation, not my money. If one was making a decision on which of the two to keep, I’d believe that management would have to decide who has a higher ceiling DuLuca or Busch. It’s a good practice to match the veterans with the new guys so the new guys can follow the veterans lead. That factor would play in the decision. I’d love the Dodgers to hang on to both Muncy and Heyward but is it worth one of the 26 spots to have a somewhat similar hitter. My pick would be Heyward because he puts the ball in play more. Of course that pick is without knowing what goes on in the clubhouse and road trips.

    I believe JD Martinez and his 10 million are up after the season.

  19. OldBear48August 8, 2023

    Ohtani’s worth lies as a two-way player. It is a fact, he has been having problems with a finger, numbness, on his pitching hand. How long can he continue to be a two-way player, and at what cost? Unless he can pitch and DH, since he really has not played in the outfield or any other position, his value is diminished. He is 2-3 in his last 5 outings on the mound. Hardly Ace type pitching. He has given up 6 homers in 29 innings during that span. In his 3 losses, he went 5 innings or less. Lot of strain on the pen. His two wins were his complete game shutout of the Tigers, not impressive since they are horrible, and a 6 inning win against the Pirates where he gave up 5 earned runs. He has more value as a hitter than he does on the mound. He strikes out a lot, and he leads the AL in wild pitches. Freidman and the ownership have all the stats they need to decide whether to pursue him as a free agent or not. I think that he becomes a Dodger only if the ownership group feels he is that guy. They are the ones who have to approve a contract like that, not Friedman. If they feel they will get a huge benefit signing him, then it will happen. If they feel there is too much risk involved signing a player who turns 30 mid-season next year, it won’t. Ohtani is only a generational talent if he can keep pitching.

  20. Johnny GentleAugust 8, 2023

    I’ve been avoiding the Ohtani. My view is he will choose where he wants to go. If we are the choice, we’ll be happy to accomodate.

    Think about our long-term commitments. We have the franchise, Mookie, who Ohtani has said he likes. We have an affordable MVP-level guy in Freeman so we are assured to have two other stars to share the burden. Then aside from a couple more years for Taylor, we’re clear. AND we have a loaded farm system.

    Not a bad fit if he wants to sign up

  21. dodgerpatchAugust 8, 2023

    With the current players under contract and the anticipated arbitration raises for the players under team control, the Dodgers will be 137 million under the CBT for 2024.

    Can the Dodgers afford Ohtani? Sure sounds like it.

    The big question is whether he’s worth it. The Dodgers can win without him. But in terms of the big BIG long term objective of the franchise, I think it goes beyond just getting into the playoffs and winning a WS or two.

    If I’m the Guggenheim group, I’m wanting to maximize the overall value of the franchise. Owning a professional sports team is an investment, and the valuation of that investment isn’t necessarily measured in operational profitability or cash flow. A high attendance is great, but it’s only one component that contributes to the long term value of the organization.

    Baseball in the U.S. is stagnant. It’s not growing. It was overtaken by the NFL a long time ago, and probably basketball is more of a money maker now.

    For baseball to grow, it needs to grow internationally. The last World Baseball Classic showed us that there is international appeal for baseball. There is a huge market.

    Ohtani will help the Dodgers win. More importantly, he will make the Dodgers brand more recognizable and desirable internationally. It goes beyond selling Ohtani jerseys.

    The Dodgers are awash in money because they inked an insane exclusive local TV deal. Could you imagine how valuable the rights to broadcast Dodgers games in international markets would be? Ohtani’s star power would drive that.

    Ohtani is a transformational player. He’s the guy who can make MLB popular worldwide. His value goes well beyond what he does on the field.

    Ohtani – 55 AAV

    Kershaw – 20 AAV

    Muncy – 10 AAV

    Urias – 20 AAV

    Heyward – 7 AAV

    Who am I missing?

  22. DavidAugust 8, 2023

    I agree Mark, Now if he lets Muncy sit against lefties……..

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