At the trade deadline, Dodger fans were generally underwhelmed by the acquisitions of Kike Hernandez, Amed Rosario, Joe Kelly, Lance Lynn, and Ryan Yarbrough. I have opted not to copy and paste what many of you said about the players Andrew Friedman and Brandon Gomes acquired at the trade deadline so as to protect you from being called a certified moron. A few of the commenters who mocked the acquisitions have evaporated! Yeah, I would too…
Consider this (and yes, I know that this is still early):
- Joe Kelly had a 4.97 ERA with the White Sox, and in his 3.2 IPO with the Dodgers, he has a 0.00 ERA;
- Lance Lynn had a 6.47 ERA and was 6-9 with the White Sox and is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA with the Dodgers;
- Ryan Yarbrough had a 4.24 ERA with Kansas City, but in his 7.1 innings with the Dodgers, he has a 1.23 ERA;
- Kike Hernandez was hitting .222 with Boston, but since re-joining the Dodgers, he is hitting a 100 points higher with a .884 OPS; and
- Amed Rosario had 3 HR with Cleveland in 385 ABs, but in 42 ABs with the Dodgers, he has hit 3 more.
So, should we believe that all five of these players are just playing out of their minds and this anomaly will crash and burn? Well, you may think that, but I don’t. I also think it is very simple – kind of how it’s very simple that the best team does not always win. That is a concept which a couple of people have been unable to grasp! I will provide proof of that at the end of this blog, but back to what Andrew Friedman and Company know that we do not.
They know how to put players in the best position top experience success. Of course, they are also applying “weeks” to what the players are doing and it certainly helps that most of the players left varying bad situations and are enjoying being a Dodger. Rosario and Hernandez both started out as platoon players. They were going to hit against LHP, but with injuries and other situations, their roles have expanded. Rosario is not a “little guy” but he has hit like one his whole career. Suddenly, he has matched his total home runs for the year that he accumulated in 385 ABS in just 42 ABs.
Lance Lynnn feels like he has a new lease on life as does Joe Kelly and Ryan Yarbrough. By all accounts, the five acquisitions are great teammates and fill a void on the team. Now, I do not expect them to continue to play at this pace (10-1 in August), but I do think they are on a 95+ win trajectory! Tony Gonsolin and Julio Urias are getting their mojo back and Clayton is pitching like he has never been gone. Add in the fact that Bobby Miller just pitched his best game of the year and it looks like the rotation is not a weakness, but rather a strength with the addition of Lynn and Yarbrough (as a swingman). The only troubling question surrounds JD Martinez and his lingering health problems. Without him, the team is good. With him, it is dynamic!
The Best Team
I stumbled upon a well-written and researched blog yesterday entitled “How Often Does the Best Team Win the Title?” This is not just about baseball, but it spans all sports and it is pretty clear that they are not hung up on what constitutes the best team. They use this criteria:
“Let’s quantify excitement vs accuracy by defining the “actual best team” as the one with the highest power rating, then seeing how often it wins the title. To estimate this, we ran 10,000 simulated seasons in 6 major American sports: professional football, basketball, baseball, hockey; college football and basketball.”
— Robert Robison
The study can be found HERE and it emphasizes how difficult it is for the best team to win, Some of you will read it and some of you will not want to be confused by the facts. You prefer this situation:
Discussion (28)
Disagree, not disagreeable
San Diego is behind 15.5 games. Many here thought they passed us with the players they picked up. They didn’t even come close to closing the gap. Well at least they tried………I guess.
Over the last 3 seasons I’ve noticed a trend in the comments. When the Dodgers play well AF and the players get the credit. When they play poorly Roberts gets the blame.
I agree with what some of my brothers have said here- Put Mookie on 2B and put KiKe in the OF. It’s safer that way and Mookie loves to play infield.
Other wise, poor Colorado was just plain overmatched. Every pitcher they throw out there wouldn’t even make our team…I feel for them. It’s much easier to hit pitchers with 5+ ERAs than < 3 ERA.
If only we could play Rockies in October. Mets and Pads have proven that buying a lot of talent doesn’t make for a good team. You can tell with this team, there’s just something special about their chemistry. If we can stay healthy, we may steal the crapshoot!
Did I miss it or The Dodgers are yet to announce who they’re bringing up to replace Joe Kelly.
Anyone know when last time Rojas had 4 RBIs in a game??
It appears that Gomes and Friedman are good at their job. It’s still, as a fan, to play GM. With a off day tomorrow it’s no better time to play GM than the present.
As a GM we need to build within the organization. Going out and getting a Mookie or a Freddy is great plus to fill in a spot to provide depth we may need to go out and find a veteran that understands his role. Trading prospects where we may have a surplus and our trading partner matches up where we might be thin is good business.
Next season will be a great time to deal with the burdensome luxury tax. It’s just not the money that is being shelled out but the impact on the position of the amateur draft and international money. By my count we have 15 players on the 40 man roster that will be free agents after we win the World Championship. Some will re-sign and others will be playing somewhere else next season. There are a few that are under contract that will probably playing elsewhere in 24. With this many free agents we should be able to manage the Rule 5 draft. The thing we shouldn’t do is publicly criticize Gomes or Friedman, this tends to make us look foolish.
As Dodger fans we need to enjoy and not take for granted the ride we have been on for granted. Let’s watch the best in the business do their thing. Of course if they need any help they can call me.
Ryan Pepiot 6 no/hit, no/walk innings with 10 Ks.
Primed now to be the 5th/6th starter.
Fingers crossed the SP’s stay healthy.
Kike taketh away and Kike giveth
And Mookie is the gift that just keeps on giving
Good idea dodger dad. I stuck up for Kike the other day and here he is making another error causing Julio to throw more pitches
It was big of Julio to pat his chest after he threw that hanging change up like it was his fault, but he never should’ve had to throw that pitch
Switch Mookie and Kiki! He’s a butcher in the infield at this moment!
With Almonte and Kelly sidelined, the Dodgers pen now suddenly too left heavy.
Joe Kelly on the 15-day IL with right elbow inflammation per reports.
The Dodgers did what they do best,, which is build rosters to win the regular season. No complaints here as winning the regular season is still a pre-requisite for the playoffs.
Playoffs, however, are a different game. Platooning for L-R match-ups is less effective. It’s more about having the best 8 on the field and getting clutch defensive and offensive plays.
It’s also about pitching. It’s laughable to read sportswriters writing about Kershaw being a top end starter. He has not been a shutdown playoff pitchers in years. We have one semi-ace and his name is Julio. After that is mediocrity.
I can see a strategy of using 2+ starters in a game (e.g. Miller + Kershaw), but hard to see it working over a long series).
Well timed post. So far, the three new guys and the two former Dodgers are all doing well. Kike’s errors, two, have not cost them any games, and they have played really well since the deadline. Hopefully everyone stays hot. Freeman had an ice pack placed on his leg after he left the game and said it feels well enough for him to play this afternoon. Still no word on the return of Martinez, but they are hoping for some time during this homestand. Almonte was placed on the IL yesterday with a problem in his leg. Gonzalez recalled from OKC. I read on MLBTR that the GM’s might be discussing moving the trade deadline to mid-August. The reasoning is simple, since the elimination of the August waiver deadline at the end of the month, they have had to make roster decisions much sooner than they like. If the deadline were in mid-August, players like Ohtani and a few others, including Alonso, who the Mets explored trade scenarios for, would be available to the contenders and the pretenders could receive something for their pending free agents. Not sure if it will be discussed at the next GM’s meeting, but it sure sounds like it. I was surprised thought when I read that the Diamondbacks had DFA’d Carson Kelly. Kelly has only played in 32 games this season. He is hitting .226. His best year was 2019. He hit .245 with 18 homers.
* To me Gonsolin is not an easy watch. He seems on the ledge for me, when he isn’t. He’s just a blue-collar pitcher. He doesn’t look particular sharp. His command doesn’t look particularly good. He bounces his splitter repeatedly and beats the crap out of his catcher. And in the end he got his 8th win averaging 15 pitchers per inning. Ain’t no beauty queens in this locality.
* Same with Outman. I love the kid. His routes can be interesting, he doesn’t glide to the ball effortlessly like Bellinger and Griffey did. But he covers ground, gets to the ball and makes the play. And he’s improving.
* Old Fact-Checker me was at it again last night. In the 7th, Orel and Joe were discussing Freddie’s clean language, even during frustration in the cage during BP. Orel tried to drop an old TV reference about good clean language. He reference, Opie Cunningham, as his example. He sold Joe on it as again, as it was before Joe’s time. Orel can be a nerd and was vintage. He mixed up 2 different old TV shows characters to invent a new character. The was no Opie Cunningham. There was Opie Taylor from the Andy Griffith Show and Richie Cunningham from Happy Days, all good clean all-American boys. Good try Orel.
* The Suter veteran is interesting. He has Harvard degree in Environmental Science and Public Policy. He does all kids of goofy shit to save energy and the planet, like take 2-minute showers and recycle paper plates. Good for him. Oh, and guess what? He’s a left-handed pitcher.
* I think I will fire up STB again today, by picking on Muncy. In the 6th last night, down 0-2, he did make contract which is good. But he took an outside off-speed pitch and rolled over it for an easy grounder to 2nd. You just can’t pull that pitch successfully. He needs to watch Freddie more, who is the best opposite field line drive hitter around. Max just can’t stay inside that pitch. He swings around it damn near every time. And that’s why he’s hitting a buck ninety.
Yes, he hits homers and walks a lot but as Bear has said and I agree, we’d feel better about Max if he could hit .230.
Saturday scores
Tacoma 5, Oklahoma City 1
Amarillo 10, Tulsa 9
Game 1 — West Michigan 12, Great Lakes 4
Game 2 — Great Lakes 3, West Michigan 2
Rancho Cucamonga 5, Inland Empire 3
Sunday schedule
10:05 a.m.: Great Lakes (Jerming Rosario) vs. West Michigan (Dylan Smith)
11:05 a.m.: Tulsa (Orlando Ortiz-Mayr) vs. Amarillo (Jamison Hill)
1:35 p.m.: Oklahoma City (Ryan Pepiot) at Tacoma (Logan Allen)
5 p.m.: Rancho Cucamonga (Gabe Emmett) vs. Inland Empire (Jorge Marcheco)
4:10 PM ET
Rockies (45-72)
Dodgers (70-46)
SP Kyle Freeland L
4-12 4.84 ERA
SP Julio Urias L
9-6 4.39 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
RF Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
DH Amed Rosario R
2B E. Hernandez R
3B Max Muncy L
LF Chris Taylor R
CF James Outman L
SS Miguel Rojas R
85° Wind 9 mph Out
Lovely look at Heyward in the Times today (may be pay walled)
A ‘Perfect Marriage’ Between Team and Player https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/12/sports/baseball/jason-heyward-dodgers.html?smid=nytcore-android-share
Our new guys are definitely making AF look like a genius, especially if we win the whole damn thing!
Overall I have really enjoyed the Dodgers this year, being in “transition” and all.
Outside of maybe a couple of individuals, I was in the majority thinking that Outman needed a reset at AAA.
But man has he proved us wrong (I think I heard somewhere – something along the lines the “progress is not linear” – or maybe that is a new saying I just came up with – sometime I amaze myself!)
Below is Outman’s stats for the past 7, 15 & 30 games.
Mark, and others, always said his SO rate was not sustainable at the MLB level – and they were right. His last 30- games 23 BB – 26 SO (right below 30%), his last 15-games his SO rate is less than 25%.
AB H R HR RBI BB SO SB. Ave. OBP. SLG
Last 7 Games 22 5 7 1 2 6 5 1 .318 .464 .500
Last 15 Games 42 9 14 2 8 11 10 3 .333 .491 .524
Last 30 Games 88 19 28 3 11 23 26 6 .318 .474 .466
In comparison to Cody, he has 16 more AB, 8 RBI’s less, 3-HR’s less. After 2+ years of watching Cody’s struggles I was totally in the camp that the Dodgers should not have offered him the $17M. With hindsight “supposedly” always being 20/20 I am still fine with the decision.
I would really still like to see Busch and Vargas get another long-term look to see if they, like Outman, can prove they belong.
Also, I agree on the Barnes situation – not sure how Dodgers let him play in the playoffs where ever out is important, plus the big issue that he cannot throw out a runner. I am offering even odds that even Mark could steal on him prior to his knee surgery and impending weight loss.
All said and done – this really is a great site and it is a fun time to be a Dodger fan.
Another absurdly good pickup, prior to the deadline, has been Ryan Brasier (discussed yesterday as well):
This year in Boston, in 21 innings, Brasier allowed 24 hits, 18 runs, a 1.57WHIP, and 7.29 ERA.
With LA: 21 1/3 innings, 10 hits, 4 runs, .797WHIP, and 1.27ERA.
MLB Pipeline has Frasso with a 75 fastball.
Wondering if he’s a future closer.
Ok, I wanted Arenado bad. Still do! Look at the stats. Nolan has almost twice the amount of hits Max has He has slightly less homers and more RBI. Sand almost .100 points better average, so yeah, I want that guy. But we didn’t get him. But give AF his due! So far so good! I’m to the point where I’d rather have the pitcher hit when Barnes catches. I know everybody loves Barnsie, but my god, he is absolutely the worst hitter in baseball! If a spot opens AF, please give the kid Hunter a shot. Can’t get any worse!
Mark,
So you feel that AF knew that Kike would now be hitting over .300 after hitting about .220 the last few years including when he played for us. Or that Lynn, who is a home run give up machine would get it together in one week here. etc etc. So Verlander and Scherzer doing ok now after so-so years . (Scherzer 3 runs in first inning but not much after). Thor doing better also. Lorenzen pitched a no hitter. So I think many guys motivated after being traded to winning teams.
But yes looks like we got it wrapped up. Hoping we can keep the fire going and not crap out like last year
Ok. FESS up everyone. Now that we’ve won the West and our pitching has finally caught up with our hitting, what’s the STUPIDEST thing you’ve said this year. I’ll start. And there’s a lot to choose from. I’ll pick pick this one . After the deadline, “Not good enough AF. Just like your team.” Since then 11-1 and as Mark pointed out, all of AF’s pick upsare playing like all stars. And that’s why the Dodgers pay me what I’m worth as a baseball analyst!
Well, I suppose we’re talking two different things here. One is perception, the other data.
Perception is fact without data.
So when we look at who does well at the trade deadline, we immediately go to perception, which is often media driven. In order to do well at the trade deadline you had to acquire one of the old pitchers or make an impossible trade for Nolan Arenado.
Just look at the comments on this site when people thought Arenado might be available.
What did the Dodgers know? No idea, but they apparently pursued Justin Verlander, just as they had done in the winter.
They apparently thought the old guy had special value. So the fallback plan is all of the assorted pieces they’ve put together, a mix and match of various assets to fill a variety of holes. Seems to be working and the cost in prospects wasn’t particularly high.
They also tried to acquire the troubled lefty from Detroit. Thank goodness he wouldn’t budge on his no trade clause.
No question winning championships was easier in the old days without so many teams joining the playoffs.
It is really about who gets hot and some luck. But the Dodgers were the best team in baseball last year. They won 111 games. Every year a team wins the World Series, but how many teams win 111 games?
Good write-up, Mark.
Dodgers have a 8.5 game lead on the Giants (9 in the loss column) with 46 games left to play. Giants might make the post season as a wildcard, but they will not win the division. Is Farhan the genius or is AF the professor and Farhan the pupil?
If the Dodgers can get Walker and Blake Treinen (and both can be effective) back for the post season it might seem this Dodger team could keep pace with the Braves and match up well in a head-to-head post season series. Treinen throwing 97 MPH is encouraging now he just has to work on stamina, control and soreness after he pitches. The BP would be exponentially better with him as an addition.
Love the versatility of Hernandez and Rosario who both have leaped frogged CT3 as Doc’s “swiss army knife” player. Outman is now an everyday CF.
What a roll this team is on. Stay healthy, get the SP sorted out and lets roll into the post season. Good time to be a Dodger fan.
Nice job Mark! My 2 cents. Yes, the trade deadline acquisitions look like a great job by Friedman. I believe Lynn will continue to pound the zone and be a solid number three or four. Joe Kelly will be the guy in tight situations. 100 mph plays! Yarbrough will be vital in the playoffs! Kiki looks reborn, just maybe not infield. Lastly, Rosario. Almost had 2 dingers last night. If he hits this way against both left and right, shouldn’t he be in the lineup 90% of the time? Nice win without Mookie, hopefully Freddie is ok. Couldn’t watch last night. Monitored score while watching the hapless Mets get their asses handed to them by the Braves. Other than Pete Alonzo, that’s a decent triple A team. The pitching is not good. Nice to see Bickford pitch. Hate he ended up in that mess! Braves are good. But a lot of MLB teams would pound that pitching staff. Get the sweep!