Use Your Vision… Not Your Sight!
In 2017, the Dodgers struck out 25.5% of the time and in 2018, it went up slightly as they struck out 25.7% of the time. They were not even close to being the worst in baseball in striking out, but they were in the bottom 30%. In 2016, the Houston Astros almost led the AL in…
In 2017, the Dodgers struck out 25.5% of the time and in 2018, it went up slightly as they struck out 25.7% of the time. They were not even close to being the worst in baseball in striking out, but they were in the bottom 30%. In 2016, the Houston Astros almost led the AL in strikeouts. Tampa Bay barely beat them. In 2017, the very next year, the Astros went from nearly the worst in strikeouts to the very best in the AL against the strikeout. Not only did their strikeouts go down, but their homeruns increased from 198 to 238! That change coincided with a World Series Championship. One thing that should not be lost in this is that if there is one team that makes greater use of analytics than the Dodgers, it is the Astros.
I know that the Astros fixed their strikeouts and hit even more homeruns. You know this and you can bet the Dodgers know this. If the Dodgers had the power to increase their home runs while reducing strikeouts, do you think they would do that? We all know the answer… and so do they. Will they try and do that? Of course they will… but they aren’t going to announce it. There will be no press release. However, it’s just common sense to try it.
You can get bent out of shape that the Dodgers are going to use starters and relievers differently in the upcoming season, just like you can get bent out of shape about Manny spiking Jesus, but there’s more to that story, just like there’s more to this story. Other teams have been doing that for a while – specifically the Astros and the Cardinals.
FAZ is not going to tell you that they would like to see Chris Taylor cut down on his strikeouts, but I guarantee that they are planning how to do that right about now. Maybe they should announce that they are going to try and cut down on team strikeouts. Yeah, that would be really dumb to say it! But, it would be really smart if they tried that and I am sure that they are… because they are not dumb… and that would be dumb. Really dumb.
I don’t think the Dodgers can reduce their strikeouts by 25%, but I do think a goal to reduce strikeouts by 5 to 8% is realistic and attainable. The Astros cut their strikeouts by 25% between 2016 and 2017! Grandal will likely be gone and Kemp will have fewer AB’s while Taylor and Bellinger can drop their strikeout totals with some work. It has worked in the past. Joc Pederson more than doubled his HR while dropping his strikeout rate by 4%. The front office is not going to discuss this, but they would be really stupid not to try… and they are not stupid.
How Much Should Change?
The Dodgers got to the World Series two years in a row… and lost. The Astros won it all in 2017 and failed to make it back in 2018. Should they blow up their team? I don’t think so, although there will be changes. Half of the Dodgers World Series Roster changed from 2017 to 2018. There will be changes this year for the Dodgers too. Boston will change and Houston will change. Contracts expire, free agents get signed, players sign with other teams, players retire and trades are made. I would suppose that you will see about the same type of movement as last year… maybe a little less. Here’s a list of changes I recommend:
- The Dodger need a new catcher. Grandal is gone! Kyle Farmer is not a catcher and Keibert Ruiz is at least a half-season away. Will Smith is a possibility. Austin Barnes will improve his hitting next year (because he can’t get worse), but I would look to a catcher like Kurt Suzuki to fill a cap of about 300 AB’s. He’s inexpensive and savvy. For the record, I think Barnes will come back with a vengeance! I also think it’s possible we could see Ruiz after July. Before you mock me, who told you Seager, Bellinger, Buehler and Toles were ready long before anyone else?
- The Dodgers need a RH Power Hitter. The team is very heavy on the LH side and someone suggested a trade I happen to like: Max Muncy to the White Sox for Jose Abreu. That’s the best idea I have heard. If I had to throw another prospect in, I would do it becasue (1) the Dodgers need a RH power hitter like Manny never really was; and (2) I can’t see Muncy sustaining what he did. Sell high. Abreu has two years of control and then move Bellinger back to 1B.
- The Dodgers need to trade Yasiel Puig. After his rookie year, I advocated trading him for Gioncarlo Stanton and was roundly criticized. I do like him (sometimes), but it is past time to move him. Why? (1) He might as well be a LH hitter because he can’t hit lefties. He has reverse splits. He hit .209 against LHP and .297 verses RHP. He’s almost a superstar against RHP, but a scrubb against LHP. (2) He is sliding very rapidly defensively. He’s no longer a TOP right fielder; and (3) His body-type is going to produce some major injuries. He had a 2.7 WAR in 2018. I think he can be moved for a couple of prospects or in a package for another player.
- It’s time for Alex Verdugo. I’ve been saying that for a couple of years. Alex has a cannon of an arm and has a chance to be Tony Gwynn… or something close (a chance). I think he’s the leadoff hitter the Dodgers covet.
- Trade Toles or Pederson. The other one platoons with Kemp in LF. See who has the most value and move them. Matt Kemp is virtually untradeable. Every GM knows he loves being a Dodger (Strike one). He makes $21 million and the Dodgers would have to pay at least $15 million of it (Strike two)… and he is a team leader and fan favorite. He’s worth more than the $6 million the Dodgers would still owe him (strike three). Let’s not forget that he hit .290 with 21 HR and 85 RBI this year. He actually hits RH pitching better… but not by that much. A platoon in LF could be very productive.
- Decide on a Second Baseman. I was wrong about Gavin Lux. When they drafted him, I said they made a mistake. They didn’t! He is the real deal and may be ready by July. In the meantime, let Kike Hernandez and Chris Taylor fight out who starts at 2B. I would only sign LeMahieu for a steal of a deal.
- Draw a line in the sand on Bryce Harper. Whoever thinks he will get 14 years and $420 million from the Dodgers has been seriously involved in illegal drug use. The Dodgers will try and get creative, but they won’t go over $275 million…. if that!
- Think about trading Wood, Stripling, Maeda, Stewart (along with Puig and Pederson or Toles). If the Dodgers put together a 3 or 4 way deal that included some of those players, and included some prospects, could they snag a Corey Kluber that didn’t involve Ruiz or Verdugo?
Here’s my roster:
- Verdugo RF
- Turner 3B
- Seager SS
- Abreu 1B
- Bellinger CF
- Taylor 2B
- Kemp/Pederson (or Toles)
- Barnes/Smith/Suzuki
Bench:
Kike, Freese, Toles or Pederson, Suzuki or Smith, Locastro or Ramos
Starters:
- Kershaw
- Kluber
- Buehler
- Hill
- Urias
I think it is 50/50 that Ryu takes the QO. Then there is Gnsolin, Wood, Maeda and Stripling… if not trdaed.
Bullpen:
- Jansen
- Ferguson
- Santana
- Alexander (look for a huge year from him)
- Fields
- Baez
- Floro
- Cingrani or Koehler
Remember, don’t just look at what you see… use your vision. Sight is simply the faculty or power of seeing. “Oh, this guy hit 35 HR this year, we should get him.”
Vision is the act or power of anticipating that which will or may come to be. “Oh, this guy hit 12 HR this year, but he looks to be capable of breaking out soon.”
You can use your eyes… I prefer vision. Get the guy BEFORE he is that guy… not after.
By the way, Albert Pujols was once the best player in baseball. So was A-Rod and Josh Hamilton and King Felix and Robinson Cano. All were paid way past their productive years which hamstrung their teams… Felix and Robinson continue to do so. Forgetaboutit!
It is looking more-and-more like Farhan Zaidi will soon be the President of Baseball Operations for the Giants and some Dodger fans are giddy to lose him. All I can say is “You really have no Clue!” If he goes, the hated Giants just got a huge edge!
Parting Shot
- Getting to the World Series two year in a row is incredible.
- Losing two years in a row is tragic.
- But a lot of luck was involved.
- Steve “Freaking” Pearce was the MVP (no one in the history of the world predicted that).
- David Price who was worse than Clayton Kershaw in the Post-Season and 3 years older, but was lights out in the Post-Season for the first time EVER!.
- Joe Kelly was smoked during the regular season, only to become “Smoking Joe” in the playoffs.
- Nate Eovaldi was unhittable. Who predicted? No one.
- Matt Barnes has a 4.14 career ERA, but was 1.04 in the Post-Season.
- Rick Porcello had a 4.28 ERA during the regular season but was 1.93 in the World Series.
- Eduardo Rodriguez had not pitched in weeks and was Cy Young.
- The Dodgers pretty much neutralzed the big hitters of the Red Sox, but the scrubbs beat them.
The whole point of this is that the World Series is a Crapshoot. We were lucky to see the Dodgers there two years in a row… and a third is indeed possible… We just need the Big Dodger in the Sky to help them finish it!
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Discussion (130)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Kim Ng as GM… Extremely sharp woman, been around all facets of the games and would be coming back home…
Did I mention great PR!??!
Let the Giants have their fourth choice, after the guys on the A’s, the Indians, and the Brewers turned the Giants down.
I would love that lineup. I don’t think Friedman will dole out the $$$ to sign Harper though.
What if, Friedman jettisons the following players?
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Puig
Pederson
Muncy
Taylor
Hernandez
Farmer
Maeda
Wood
We are stuck with Kemp for one more year… but that’s OK.
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Would this lineup be productive:
1. Lamahieu 2B (one edict: “Get on Base”)
2. Seager SS
3. Harper LF
4. Turner 3B
5. Abreu 1B
6. Bellinger CF
7. Verdugo RF
8. Barnes and me can platoon
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Fewer strikeouts and more runs. I can see it….
I refuse to look at the loss of Turner Ward and Farhan as a negative. Change brings opportunity, new strategies, a new voice and a new approach. I’m excited with the possibilities and look forward to the next week-10 days where we’ll hear about a new 3b coach, hitting coach and GM. I’m thinking Hasselman gets elevated to the big club in some capacity and someone we’ve never heard about (a la Farhan in 2014) gets named GM.
Winter Meetings start in about 5 weeks.
I agree Mark , Bochy is not as on board as Doc as far as platooning and analytics, plus he has 3 rings and Zaidi has none. With that said, the game always changes, and while I liked both Ward and Zaidi, we do need a new breathe of fresh air to get us over the last hurdle. Sometimes a new direction , while scary, can get players to be challenged, and they will respond in a positive way. We have most of the players in place, they just need a fresh approach. I am gettin excited.
“I am delighted to return to the Bay Area and to join one of the most storied franchises in the game,” Zaidi said in a statement. “I have watched the Giants from afar and I have great respect for the organization’s culture and many accomplishments. I am excited about this new opportunity and I’m looking forward to getting right to work.”
I think that Farhan will do well in SF, but now that he is gone, I have heard that a small rift might have been festering between Zaidi and Friedman. Friedman is on record recently as not being a huge fan of platoons, while Zaidi was very much a fan… to the point of “hounding” Roberts to make lineup changes. I think whoever Friedman hires will be much more “hands-off” with Roberts.
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It will be interesting whom Zaidi hires as GM and how he gets along with Bochy. That could be interesting…
I think he’ll pluck the next whiz kid as the new Dodgers GM. Who that is I have no idea, but my money is a data-driven sabermetric guy who is probably less than thirty years-old and never played baseball beyond high school but can work an excel spreadsheet like no one else.
So, will Byrnes become GM or will Friedman pick someone that is a huge surprise?
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Zaidi is a Giant now.
Roberts just re-upped for 4 years!
Here’s what we know. The Reds FO called Friedman and asked if they could interview Turner Ward for the position of hitting coach… and Friedman said yes.
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From The LA Times:
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Andrew Friedman, not Farhan Zaidi, sauntered into the Parlor room at the Omni La Costa Resort & Spa at 2:10 p.m. Tuesday to represent the Dodgers in the first of the general managers meetings’ two league-mandated media sessions this week. It was the first time Friedman, the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, had drawn the assignment since his first offseason with the Dodgers in 2014. Zaidi, the club’s general manager, spoke for the organization at this event the previous three years. But Zaidi might not be the Dodgers’ general manager for long.
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In the latest twist in a chaotic young offseason for the Dodgers, Zaidi is considering an offer to become the San Francisco Giants’ president of baseball operations. He hadn’t made his decision as of Tuesday night. Friedman declined to comment on the situation, but he confirmed the Dodgers will not block Zaidi from pursuing the job and Zaidi is not attending the GM meetings this week.
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The obvious internal options are assistant hitting coaches Brant Brown and Luis Ortiz, both of whom joined the organization last December. Friedman confirmed the rest of the coaching staff — Brown, Ortiz, pitching coach Rick Honeycutt, first base coach George Lombard, and bullpen coach Mark Prior — are under contract for next season.
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Turnover in the coaching and front-office ranks isn’t foreign to this regime. The Dodgers lost director of player development Gabe Kapler, vice president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, and bullpen coach Josh Bard last offseason, and chugged along to another World Series appearance. But constant turnover challenges continuity and replacing Zaidi could be their biggest challenge yet.
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“Obviously, it’s a compliment to our organization, the group that we’ve assembled,” Friedman said. “And on one hand, I’m really happy for these guys who are getting opportunities. On the other, it is challenging for employees. But with that comes opportunity for other people that we have in our organization that we feel can step up.”
From ESPN.com:
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The Dodgers also won’t be shelling out significant dollars for relief pitching, regardless of how much trouble their bullpen gave them. The Colorado Rockies did that last offseason, committing a combined $106 million to Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee. But Davis (4.13 ERA), Shaw (5.93 ERA) and McGee (6.49 ERA) all struggled, validating what has become dogma in the Dodgers’ front office.
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“You look back over time at free-agent relievers, and it’s not a very good track record,” Friedman said. “So, we’re not going to do it just to win a headline on that day.”
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“Elite relievers come from everywhere,” Zaidi added, “and that’s our responsibility, to be resourceful and try to find those guys. The solution isn’t always, and is often not, just going out and trying to spend money. Sometimes the best relievers come from thinking more creatively about guys who can do that job.”
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As an executive with the cash-strapped Tampa Bay Rays, Friedman would often root for other clubs to sign high-priced free agents because he knew it would cripple them long term. He brought that same logic to the affluent Dodgers and vowed not to let deeper resources trigger impracticality.
I’m not worried about Ward signing with the Reds. There are a number of good hitting teams in MLB, so I guess there are other very capable hitting coaches. My best guess is that the Dodgers are aware of the coaching talent available. Could be that the next great hitting coach will come out of the minor leagues. As Mark is wont to say, maybe the Dodgers will find the next great hitting BEFORE he’s the next great hitting coach.
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I’m not going to lose any sleep over this. But Puig night. 🙂
That does make a lot of sense.
I looked at DJ’s numbers away from Coors the previous three years, before this last season.
And he had pretty decent batting averages, he hit 300 twice, and 297, and his OBP’s numbers were pretty good too, and his OPSes were in the middle 700s.
That would be a lot better then Forsythe ever did, and DJ did have 18 DRS last year.
They say the difference with how off speed pitches break differently from home and away too, is not an easy transition for the players on the Rockies either.
He is certainly not a power hitter, but he can hurt
I don’t care what LeMahieu hit on the road. I mentioned this the other day on this site, and believe I’ve seen it elsewhere. Rockies hitters often struggle on the road because they play half their games at altitude, and have diificulty adjusting to normal conditions away from Coors. Put those same players in normal conditions practically all the time and the numbers in those conditions will normalize.
I just talked to someone in the “Know” and there is nothing sinister to Ward’s departure. He wanted to be closer to Alabama and the Dodgers let him go… That’s the Company line. .. from the Reds point-of-view.
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That’s all I know.
Rational piece
Zaidi–I wish him the best. I’m sure he’ll be missed. I hope we can find a suitable replacement. That said, after he goes I won’t give him a second’s thought. Like Tony Soprano says to P—- on the boat before he whacks him, “Did you ever even exist?”
Morosi reporting that the Dodgers are targeting LeMahieu.
Open on bleacherreport.comhttps://bleacherreport.com/los-angeles-dodgerslemahieu is from visalia, ca
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now i want him
If FAZ wanted a “scapegoat” they could have just dismissed Ward after the World Series, but they let all this happen without a word. It will be intereresting to find out the erst of the story… and we will find out.
I hope Zaidi doesn’t go to the midgets. I enjoy knowing they’re a complete dumpster fire and I don’t want to see a Dodger executive go there and help them turn it around.
I have no doubt that Dale Murphy is correct. Still, it always appeared to me as if Taylor was swinging up. Which might be the reason (along with his uncontrollable hard swings) that he struck out so much.
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And why is it that so many people think that Taylor was a weak hitter before coming to the Dodgers and changing his hitting style. That doesn’t appear to be the case given this:
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Open on www.baseball-reference.comhttps://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tayloch03.shtml–
I see no reason why he couldn’t alter his style to strike out less, and hit line drives. Based on his career stats, it appears to me that he could replace HRs with a different variety of extra base hits. And I’m certain he could make better use of his speed if he were on base a lot more.