The optimist sees bubbles and thinks of champagne. The pessimist thinks Alka-Seltzer.
The fact of the matter is that everyone thinks the Dodgers are the richest organization in baseball and should sign an All-Star at every position because that is the recipe for a World Championship. If you believe that, you are either naive or very dumb… or both.
First off, what is the Luxury Tax? Actually, it’s called the Competitive Balance Tax. It is just called the “Luxury Tax” because that is what it is called… duh. Each year, clubs that exceed a predetermined payroll threshold are subject to a Competitive Balance Tax – Those who carry payrolls above that threshold are taxed on each dollar above the threshold, with the tax rate increase based on the number of consecutive years a club has exceeded the threshold. Here it is Verbatim from MLB itself:
A team’s Competitive Balance Tax figure is determined using the average annual value of each player’s contract on the 40-man roster, plus any additional player benefits. Every team’s final CBT figure is calculated at the end of each season. (Note: If a player signs a contract extension that doesn’t kick in until a later season, his AAV for the purposes of the CBT doesn’t change until the new deal begins.)
The following thresholds were put in place per the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement:
2022: $230 million
2023: $233 million
2024: $237 million
2025: $241 million
2026: $244 million
A club that exceeds the Competitive Balance Tax threshold is subject to an increasing tax rate depending on how many consecutive years it has done so.
First year: 20 percent tax on all overages
Second consecutive year: 30 percent
Third consecutive year or more: 50 percent
If a club dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset. So, a club that exceeds the threshold for two straight seasons but then drops below that level would be back at 20 percent the next time it exceeds the threshold.
There’s also a surcharge threshold for clubs that exceed the base threshold by $20 million or more.
$20 million to $40 million: 12 percent surcharge
$40 million to $60 million: 42.5 percent surcharge for first year; 45 percent for each consecutive year after that
$60 million or more: 60 percent surcharge
Clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.
In simple terms, if the Dodgers are over the CBT in 2023, they will be in the highest tax category in 2024, and if they want to sign an Ohtani, they will have to pay out the a$$. If they are $40 million over the CBT, then they also lose draft positions. Of course, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is adamant there is no mandate to stay under the tax threshold from ownership, but also noted, “there are benefits to doing it.”
Some of you weigh on every word that comes out of Andrew Friedman’s mouth, but smart fans will weigh every word that comes out of his mouth, realizing that he is under no obligation to tell you what he is going to do… if fact, he just might mislead you.
The penalties for going over three straight years or longer would be a 50% tax on every dollar spent over the $233 million threshold.
In addition, there’s also a surcharge threshold for clubs that exceed the base threshold by $20 million or more, ranging from a 12% surcharge up to 60%, depending on how far over the club is. Teams that are $40 million or more above the threshold also have their highest selection in the next MLB Draft moved back ten places under certain terms.
I find it interesting that the last time the Dodgers were under the threshold was when they had a luxury tax number of $178 million during the 2020 season. Hmm… that was also the last time they won the World Series. See any connection between spending and winning? No, it is just the opposite! The tax threshold in the 2020 season was set at $208 million. They also dipped under it in 2018 after paying a record penalty in 2017 and going over the threshold every season for five years since 2013.
Here’s another quote from Andrew Friedman:
“… the No. 1 thing for Mark Walter and our ownership group is to do everything we can to go out and win a World Series. Sometimes as part of the transition that happens on rosters over a three-, five-year period, young players get integrated onto the roster, by definition payrolls come down some when that happens, depending on how many.
We have a number of really talented Minor League players right now at the upper levels, and part of our focus this offseason will be how many to look to integrate early in the year, and how many of them will kind of serve as depth throughout the year, get experience and then be part of the core going forward.”
Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch, James Outman, Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, and Gavin Stone are all going to be given an opportunity this season. That is the Dodgers’ plan this year.
However, all they need to do is get into the playoffs, and anything can happen. Spending on big-name players doesn’t guarantee anything, as we have seen so often, and the Houston Astros just won the World Series by promoting their own young players into essential roles.
The Dodgers may still make a significant move if the right one presents itself, but they aren’t going to pass the luxury tax threshold just for anyone, so depending upon what happens early in the season, I would not expect a big move right now. In fact, the deeper into the offseason it gets, the odds increase that they will stay below the threshold. Here’s the bottom line: According to SI:
“Los Angeles paid tax each season from 2013-17 and its total bill through last year reached $182 million since the luxury tax began in 2003. That’s second only to the Yankees’ $348 million bill.If the Dodgers owe tax for 2023, they would pay 50% above next year’s first threshold of $233 million, 62% above $253 million, 95% above $273 million and 110% above $293 million.”
That is not Monopoly money, people. Those are real dollars. Mark Walter has a fiduciary responsibility to the shareholders and partners in Guggenheim Partners, and money spent because “you just can” is like slapping your shareholders. In fact, Todd Boehly (one of the partners) has been openly vocal about going over the salary cap. BTW, Boehly may also be purchasing another team:
However, that is a different story… for another day. Mark Walter will authorize going over the CBT only if the Dodgers falter early in the season. They have one of the finest farm systems in baseball and maybe the best player development machine ever! There are still lots of free agents and trades to be had, but I think the Dodgers will stand pat until the middle of the season. If they are stumbling, then Friedman may pull the plug and abandon any possibility of staying under the threshold, but as it stands, the youngsters have to be given a chance.
Back in November, Stan Kasten gave a pretty clear indication that the Dodgers were going to rely on the Farm in an article in The LA Times:
"Having watched the best regular-season team in Dodgers history implode after just four nights in the playoffs, it appears that baseball’s biggest spenders might be ready to slightly change course. Miguel Vargas? He had a .915 on-base-plus-slugging percentage at triple A this year. Michael Busch? He slugged 32 homers with 108 RBIs at the top two minor league levels. Bobby Miller? He struck out 12 batters per nine innings at the same two minor league levels.
Those three players form the foundation of the Dodgers’ future and, if you listen to Dodgers president and chief executive Stan Kasten, that future could be now. “Earlier in the last decade, we had a wave of young guys who were going to be real contributors,” Kasten told the Los Angeles Times this past week. “We think we are now on the precipice of the next wave of young guys. We need to make room to allow that to happen.”
Kasten emphasized that the team would spend whatever it deemed necessary to improve but noted that this offseason could be a little different. “If money is what is needed, we’ll certainly do that, as we’ve shown time and time again,” he said. “[But] if we think we have kids who need time to play up here, I’m sure we’ll do that as well.”
Any other Dodgers winter, those words might be cause for alarm. But, hey, in the wake of the recent lifeless implosion of the Dodgers’ veteran All-Stars — their ninth postseason failure during a stretch of 10 years of regular-season excellence — why not mix in a few energetic newbies? During a 30-minute interview reflecting on the season, Kasten emphasized he was happy with the organizational direction and its leadership despite the team coming under the most critical public scrutiny since Kasten’s group took ownership a decade ago. But he acknowledged that the Dodgers will do whatever it takes to change the ending. “We have succeeded in too many ways on too many fronts for me to think of this as any kind of failure,” he said, later adding, “Just in the last eight years, five LCSs and three World Series, I don’t think those are bad numbers. ... We won one World Series, we lost another one in Game 7, I don’t think those are symbols of a fatally flawed program. I just don’t agree with that.”
The pitching is simply outstanding, and if healthy, they may have a surplus to trade. If an injury-free Max Muncy reverts back to his normal Dodger year (.890 OPS/.35 HR), Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts do what they do, and Gavin Lux and Will Smith keep up their growth, and JDM just does what he did last year (I think he will actually have a monster year) and if one rookie shines, there is no reason to do anything. Lux, Betts, Freeman, Muncy, Smith, Martinez, and potentially Vargas are all very good to great players. The Astros won with a Rookie at SS, who hit .245 (and without much in CF). Rojas will be better than that! BTW, Rojas is going to play SS no matter how many mental gymnastics you engage in. Of course, that is also dependent upon health.
There are lots of opportunities and lots of talented players. There are dollar store purchases and rehab projects, but the main thing is that there are plenty of rookies who are hungry and ready to shep up and show out. Some will. Some won’t. Men invented statistics, analytics, and sabermetrics as a tool, but God gave you eyes. I would advise you to use them. Watch and learn!
If you think that is not a Championship Caliber team, all I am going to say is…
Discussion (41)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I am going to take some time off.
I do not tolerate fools easily, and there are too many here for me.
I get stupider just reading the drivel.
I love dissent when there are intelligent arguments attached to it.
You are so full of something that if they gave you an enema, they could bury you in a shoebox. That applies to several people here.
I can’t stand it anymore. Damn!
Your arguments are just classic circular reasoning. If you tried to present these arguments in Court, You would be held in Contempt!
For some DARK reason, you are prejudiced against DOC and it is pathetic!
So who would be a better manager than Dave Roberts? Who is it that those that so dislike Doc want in his place? And will that manager get along with both ownership and the players ( managers #1 job in MLB and with LA Dodgers in todays environment)
After seven years, and making thousands of decisions, Roberts has made some decisions that certainly didn’t work and probably were real head scratchers. But who do you want to replace him?
Someone mention Mike Scioscia who most Dodger fans love and respect. It took Mike 19 years to do what Doc did in 7. One WS and 7 trips to the playoffs.
And don’t kid yourself Mike’s Way is not the way baseball is played today and it would be hard to imagine Mike and the front office would get along.
Doc has warts but he also has a pretty impressive record.
Who is better ?
Wow Grienke is still a free agent. Let’s go Padres or Giants usually they go and get exDodgers on there team. LOL
As far as Doc’s bullpen pitching decisions in the playoffs.
1) I’ve seen him bring in the worst pitchers on the staff in high leverage situations.
2) I’ve seen him ignore reverse splits.
3) Since the 3 batter minimum rule I’ve seen him bring in both loogy’s and roogy’s in high leverage situations to get the final out of the inning and that pitcher failed to do so therefore that pitcher had to face the other side of the plate hitter with horrible statistics in that situation.
4) Just a few months ago I saw him bring in Andrew “home run allowing machine” Heaney in a tight game but Doc got away with it, plus the offense sucked and didn’t score any more runs if I remember right, so it didn’t matter.
Also, Rich Hill is a friend of Dave Roberts, and when Donald Trump (another great second-guesser and assassinator of people’s character) criticized Doc taking out Hill, Rich Hill stepped up and responded to Trump’s Tweet… shutting him up! Rich is still an admirer of Doc, because, unlike many people here, you can never know what will happen when a move is made. But second-guessers are never wrong… even if they did not like the move at the time.
I want you to think about one thing: I would guess that at least half of the “alleged Bad Moves” made by Doc were discussed with the Dodger Brass before the Series or the Game. So, I guess AF is a dumbass too.
It’s amazing how irrational ideas make you seem so irrational.
Well, we went from the Luxury Tax to Dave Roberts. Quite a switch. One thing we all probably can agree on is that there are many different opinions of Roberts on this site alone. I do not like nor dislike Roberts. For the foreseeable future he is the manager of the Dodgers and nothing much any of us do or say is going to change that anytime soon. Once the initial shock of losing wears off, I just chalk it up to history and try not to dwell on what transpired. Ultimately, the players win or lose. They either perform in clutch situations, or they do not. You can blame the manager, the players, the coaches, umpires, weather, field conditions, most anything you want. Bottom line is what is done is over and done. I scratch my head at some of the moves he has made, but I did that with every manager I have seen run the team. From Alston, to Lasorda, Russell, Hoffman, Johnson, Tracy, Little, Torre, Mattingly, and now Roberts. I saw Alston make some questionable moves. Cost the team a pennant. Lasorda did the same thing. I never thought Mattingly was a very good manager simply because of all the rumors and stories of clubhouse unrest. He also was not real patient with rookies. He usually played his vets. We as fans just have to roll with the punches and hope the players respond to the leadership they have. And one thing Doc does really well is relate with his players. And unlike some, he communicates how they will be used before he uses them. Players like continuity.
Dodgers signed another outfielder to a minor league contract. Anderson Miller.
Dave Roberts post-season winning percentage Among managers with at least 40 games in the postseason, only Hall of Famers Joe McCarthy (.698), Sparky Anderson (.618), Joe Torre (.592), and Casey Stengel (.587) won postseason games at a better clip than Roberts.
Dave Roberts is 45–33 in the postseason, a .577 winning percentage, the equivalent of a 93-win team against the most elite competition.
The managers above Roberts got most of their wins in the World Series, and they had longevity. Roberts has been exposed to more competition in his seven years than they did in some of their 30 years careers!
Seek Professional Help, and realize that Dave Roberts has the best playoff record of any manager in baseball. So, if you hire another manager he will have worse winning than Doc. Peace out and if you don’t like it… PEACE OFF!
Here is the long and short of it:
Every playoff decision Dave Roberts has made that anyone disagrees with is purely subjective. Even bringing in Clayton to pitch against the Nats in relief is purely subjective because you cannot prove what would have happened if he didn’t make that move. I guess it gives people a sense of intellectual superiority and the ability to place blame which fills a dark place in their souls.
I have stopped trying to change their minds – It is like trying to convince a drug addict that they should quit. It never works that way – they have to decide it themselves. Maybe they should go to DRA (Dave Roberts Annoymous), as he holds an unhealthy control over them!
Yes, ‘managing the clubhouse’ is a big part of being a manager. Especially on a team like LA where players who could start elsewhere are platooning for us. (like Joc, Kike and others). But also when you do have a winning team, its easier to soothe the egos of the millionaire players. In another sport, we have Russel Wilson. It seems he was everyone’s glamor hero in Seattle (plus being married to Ciara). Now on losing Denver I am seeing stories come out about how players don’t like him, yelling at him on sidelines, gets special treatment etc.
In Science Fiction we could check these things out in alternate universe streams. But so far that not available in MLB.
Roberts as a manager please don’t get me started on that. With the lineup and pitching the Dodgers have every year. Roberts should be in the playoffs and contend for a world series each year. How would he been if he was the manager of the Royals or Pirates. Think about that there’s about 20 managers that could win with what the Dodgers have.
Yes it is the only time I respond to you because your opinion is so unreasonable and I do feel compelled to call you on it. It is absolutely amazing that a front office and a Manager not good at managing in-game decisions has the best results of any team in the NL over the past 7 years. I guess if they would have been good at in-game management, the team would have won 120-130 games each year. You are a bright guy but fail to see that you can’t be bad (albeit make some bad decisions at times) at that and still win at a record pace. You are the one who is obsessed.
You keep saying (and rightfully so) that we will do well this year. If we do, that does negate the argument that anyone can manage this team with all its talent. However, if we do, I’m quite sure the man running the team will get no credit for doing so.
Unfortunately, bias has a sneaky way of affecting our thought process.
Gina Lollobrigida, Italian actress, dead at 95. R.I.P.
“Have some faith that the front office knows what they’re doing!!!” Except in picking the most important non-player in the dugout. You kill me B&P by constantly wanting it both ways.
It seems like a lot of people didn’t really bother to read the CBT specifics that Mark posted. Here’s the main points.
You only pay tax on the overages.
You only get penalized in the draft if you go over by more than $40M.
Example, you go $40 M over the cap for the third year in a row. You pay 12% surcharge and 50% tax on that $40M. The total penalty would be about $25M. The Dodgers wipe their asses with $25M. Just look at all the bad contracts over the last several years where they paid nearly that much on shitty or injured players, just to have “depth”. They took on Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett just to get Adrian Gonzales. They paid nearly that much to David Price and injure guys like Nelson and Knebel and Duffy the last couple of years. They’re paying Bauer that much this year.
The Dodgers pick at the end of each round for the draft every year because the finish at the top of league standings every year. Do you really think it makes a difference if they pick 30 or 40 when there’s virtually no difference in the chances that a player picked in those spots become a good MLB ballplayer?
Yes, they are running a business. But, do you think $25M is going to make or break them? The Dodgers averaged about 7,000 more fans at every home game than the next closest team, every year. That’s over 500,000 fans for their home games. If they manage to pull $100 bucks from each fan, that a $50M advantage. Twice the penalties for maxing out the first level of the CBT.
The advantages for getting under the cap are greatly exaggerated. Their perceived lack of offseason moves has more to do about the talent they have on hand, than trying to stay under the cap.
They didn’t get a third baseman because at this point in time, they have better options than what JT provided and there weren’t any other better options on the free agent market.
They didn’t get a shortstop because they already have a replacement. They let both Seager and Turner walk, because it didn’t make sense to pay so much more, when Lux is an acceptable replacement.
They didn’t get an Outfielder because they didn’t feel that the available Outfielders were necessarily much better than what they have.
They got a Starting Pitcher they think they can fix to replace the starting pitcher that they fixed last year.
They didn’t get a closer or back end bullpen help because they have plenty of options.
They got an infield utility guy that can also play shortstop because they didn’t have another guy to cover short in case of injury like they had last year.
So, if you think that they have a need, I think the front office probably disagrees with you. If you think that Lux and Vargas aren’t valid options and it’s “Biting Them Now”, you have no idea what you’re talking about. We’ve won our division every year for a decade (except the one lucky season when the Giants had all their players on BALCO products”. Have some faith that the front office knows what their doing!!!
Another athlete charged with a major crime. This time it is an Alabama University basketball player charged with capital murder. I sometimes wonder if these guys ever just stop and think.
While our minor league system is very good it is bare of ss and 3b.
I see no 3b or ss among our top prospects AND close to being major league ready.
Dodgers have done a poor job on those two positons over the last few years and it bites them now.
Maybe a swap of top prospects with another franchise should be considered since we are very deep and talented in pitching and catcher.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I have a question to post to all of you. Does is really make sense to pay one or maybe two megastars 300 mil or more decreasing your ability to sign quality players or pay your own when there is no guarantee that those players mean Championships? The Dodgers have 2 stars with contracts over 100 mil. Betts and Freeman. If they Angels manage to keep Ohtani, they will have two players well over 200 mil. The Pads have Machado and Bogaerts over 200 right now and If I remember right, Tatis is owed a ton too. And they haven’t won anything yet. Loyalty between players and the teams has taken a backseat to how much can I make. Kershaw is an anomaly as is Judge who will spend their entire careers with the same team. Trout will most likely be that guy too. Players are going to leave. I honestly believe this will be Urias’s last season as a Dodger unless they give him a very lucrative long-term contract. And as we have seen, this organization does not give long tern deals to pitchers. Longest since AF took over is four years for McCarthy and we all saw how that turned out.
Here are the Dodger’s International signings yesterday according to Baseball America:
Los Angeles Dodgers ($4,144,00) signing money available
Joendry Vargas, SS, Dominican Republic
Arnaldo Lantigua, OF, Dominican Republic
Daniel Mielcarek, SS, Dominican Republic
Jesus Tillero, RHP, Venezuela
Elias Medina, SS, Dominican Republic
Anderson Jerez, RHP, Dominican Republic
Erick Batista, RHP, Dominican Republic
Eduardo Quintero, C, Venezuela
Samuel Sanchez, RHP, Venezuela
Luis Carias, RHP, Venezuela
Harold Gonzalez, SS, Venezuela
Javier Herrera, SS, Venezuela
Robinson Ventura, RHP, Venezuela
Venture capitalist Joe Lacob, best known as the owner of SF Warriors, has expressed an interest in buying the Angels. I’m not sure who he is competing against, but Lacob helped build a winning culture with the Warriors. If Lacob gets the Angels, the odds of a Freeway Series go up.
Whoever gets the Angels will have a serious dilemma with Ohtani. Keeping Ohtani means committing about $400 million, maybe more, to a payroll that already has Trout. The Angels have really had a good winter and could be in the hunt at midseason. But it’s a tough division. Angels may decide to deal even if the they are in the hunt.
And why not?
A few teams could offer “win now” packages + prospects for “win later.”
The Dodgers could start with JDM, since Ohtani would slide into the DH role. With Ohtani taking a SP role, the Dodgers could offer an attractive front-line starter like May or ??? Right now, the Dodgers don’t have pitcher who is really Ohtani’s equal–but Miller has the potential. Is he offered as well as a sweetener? If I owned the Angels, I’d insist on Rushing and another promising arm (Nastrini? Frasso?) and a couple of young lottery tickets.
Angels’ ownership would have to be sold on the idea that it’s both instant upgrade and a good long-term move. Dodgers would get a new ace and a superior DH. With their depth and the quality of the farm system, the Dodgers are one of the few franchises in a position to pull this off.
I’m not entirely sure what the package would look like–only that it would include JDM–but you get the idea.
This may not be an original thought. But I think the conventional wisdom has been that Ohtani would only be dealt if the Angels have no shot at the playoffs.
Perhaps that’s not true.
All well said posts that I enjoyed reading. And everyone’s comments that’s all your opinions on things the Dodgers should do. All good ideas. Of course it’s hard to replace seager and Turner at shortstop. The Dodgers always find themselves a shortstop some how and they always find themselves a centerfielder. They will find both before the trade deadline. Either there already in the organization or they will trade for a player. That’s Dodgers baseball. They find what they are missing and go and grab it. Because what baseball player doesn’t want to be a LA Dodger.
A little off topic here, but I’ve been pondering whether we are going to look back 10 years from now and ask ourselves how did we fail to sign one of the two top SS of this generation. I won’t go as far to claim Turner and Seager will end being hall of famers like Beltre, but our current situation at SS is starting to bring back some post Adrian Beltre vibes. It wasn’t until Just Turner arrived that I felt we finally found some stability at the hot corner.
I don’t mean this in a demeaning manner, but both Seager and Turner spoiled us a bit. It will not be easy replacing that type of production out of the SS position.
My major gripe with over cap spending, is the QO related penalties and moving down 10 spots in the first round when we really go all out. But that’s a fluid thing, not always going to be extending QOs every year for example. Still, in general, I think it’s probably a good thing to reset every other year or two. Ideally, you want a nice balance of prospects and highly paid vets on the roster, which shouldn’t push the cap limits much. If we’re going over too many consecutive years, our youth/vet balance is probably off anyway and needs to be corrected.
Going into the off-season, I had hope for a few things:
1.) find short term tools-y veteran bat to replace Trea’s production in the order. Doing so allows the top of the order to carry the bottom of the lineup if necessary…like last year. We can hope the bottom is vastly better this year, but at least we’ll have insurance. I narrowed it down to signing either Abreu or Martinez, or trading for Votto. Probably worked out perfectly.
2.) Re-sign Kershaw and Anderson. One for two. I’m optimistic with Syndergaard, but envisioning more Heaney like impact than Tyler Anderson impact from him. One or more prospects will need to step up.
3.) Do not bring in journeymen position players to compete with the prospects and give Roberts an excuse not to play the prospects. Eh, they didn’t go overboard, but they’ve definitely given Doc the all vet option if he wants it. If he chooses, he could go Heyward/Taylor LF, Thompson CF, Lux/Taylor 2B, Muncy 3B, Rojas at SS. Some folks may prefer this. I’d ask if that’s any better than the lineup that fizzled against the Padres or better on paper than the Braves, Mets, Phils, or Padres lineups right now? If yes, you’re probably picturing the 2021 versions of Taylor and Muncy, and not the 2022 versions. I’m not confident those guys exist anymore. I think to compete one or more of Outman, Busch, Vargas will need to break out and exceed expectations. To do that, they’ll need Roberts to let them play through their mistakes. We’ll see.
I got a speeding ticket about 25 or 30 years ago and it was over $100 back then. I’m sure they’ve got to be much more these days. Your last speeding ticket must have been a long time ago Gerald.
Thanks for the excellent explanation of the CBT Mark. It seems though that these owners pay a $1,000,000 penalty with the same feeling that we pay a $100 speeding ticket.
NO to that and any other Ohtani trade. LET THE KIDS PLAY !!!
You also mentioned that Manfred has made it clear that he does not want Bauer to be signed by anyone. The Bauer camp made mention of a suit of collusion against MLB. My 80 year old head seems to remember two other collusion suits brought against MLB and MLBPA won both of them so there is precedent there. Personally I think Bauer will be signed by someone, and I think it will be the Padres since his lover was kinda like a second cousin once replaced relative of the Padres. They owe her and him that, then he can buy a house there and she can move in.
LET THE KIDS PLAY – desire and energy!!!
Boras is Julio’s agent and there’s no way he’s signing an extension. He’s going to the open market and I doubt AF will pay top dollar for him. And I think we have to trust AF and his crew regarding the kids. I think Vargas will be a stud and maybe we get a plus with either outman or Busch
I was thinking about Duvall too. The fact that he is still out there has me wondering about his health. Or maybe he just overestimates his value.
Signing another veteran for a few million would make it harder for Vargas, Outman and Busch to get playing time.
I’m optimistic that Heyward, still just 33, can get his game back into shape. Heyward, Duggar and Zimmer become more important if CT3 is shipped out in a salary dump. (Getting Rojas also makes Taylor expendable.)
There is another matter I hope gets done: Signing Urias to an extension.
2024 six-man rotation:
Ohtani
Urias
Buhler
Gonsolin
May
Stone
Miller…
OK, that’s six and a spare.
I thought this was a fan forum. Where fans ask questions and see what people have heard rumors about possible signings. Didn’t know everything had to have a purpose. So I asked a good question. And the typical three guys smash it. Because, well I didn’t know maybe they knew. So I looked into free agents and pulled out three names with bug league experience just in case the rookies can’t hit. A player that would help the Dodgers next season. I thought that this is a fan forum. And not a dictatorship where the same three guys. Can only bring up topics to talk about. And then make fun of the questions everyone else asks on here. Maybe just maybe fans would like to know some things and you guys not be so critical of what people ask on here. And just answer the questions. Without a smart alleck remark. Okay.
I was just mentioning free agents that are still out there that could help the Dodgers if the rookies don’t develope. Sorry, for wondering what they will do. So I was asking for your opinion on who would be good to sign to a minor league deal. Ya know just in case. Forgot everything you mention is always right. Sorry for asking questions.
Adam Duval is still out there as an outfield free agent. That would have been a better fit for the Dodgers as a outfielder. Who can play all three positions in the outfield. He would be better then Duggar or Zimmer power wise.
Elvis Andrus is out there as a free agent shortstop. He has veteran leadership and experience played well for the A’s last year.
Brandon Solano is a infielder for the Reds plays like three infield positions he used to batter the Dodgers. When he was with the Giants. A good guy off the bench.
I wouldn’t be surprised is they try to sign some of these guys to minor league deals. The one with experience in the major leagues. Just in case the rookies can’t handle it. You know be prepared just in case. Just like last year. The Dodgers had that outfielder that used to be a Giant. Then he dislocated his shoulder. Where is that guy at now. He plays defense well in the outfield.
Dustin May, Bobby Miller, Diego Cartaya, Mike Busch, and Ryan Pepiot for Ohtani?
Would you do it?
Excellent article Mark.
If the Dodgers don’t reset the luxury tax this year and return to their normal payroll, they will likely incur an additional $20 million in tax payments plus lose draft pick value of another $10 million each year.
The simplest way for the Dodgers to reset CBT is to trade Treinen and attach prospects worth his salary of $8million. Per MLB trade values it would be something like Bruns and Knack together or Pepiot alone needed to be worth $8million.
The Dodgers need to keep their options open at this point, but in spring training they could still decide to unload Treinen salary without hurting this years team.
Dodgers should find a way to reset CBT unless they are forced to make a big move at the trade deadline.
Yep a more consistent lineup for the Dodgers is very important especially without doing the shift anymore.
Do you think Freeman and Betts and Smith should play less games and that way they aren’t warn out by the playoff time.
And like always Taylor Lux and Betts always seem to get injured and can’t play every game.
So they need guys that can replace those guys when they do not play. And be consistent hitters like a Heyward Thompson and Barnes. I think those guys are your bench players that give guys like Taylor Betts and Lux days off. Freeman will be everyday and Muncy and Smith and Betts. It’s the other side positions that will change because the computer will say to okay them against what ever pitcher there facing that day.
In 2021, the Braves won 88 games, The least of any division winner. But they got hot at exactly the right time and jumped out to a 3-1 game lead over the Dodgers in the NLCS, Counting the Wild Card and the three wins over the Giants, the 91 win Braves beat the 111 win Dodgers. When they played the Padres they had been sitting on their ass for five days playing intrasquad games while the Pads were fighting the Mets for their playoff lives I think that had more than a little to do with the lack of urgency, They won game one, then Trea’s error in game two opened the door for a come from behind win sending them to Dago tied at a game apiece rather than being two games up. Roberts pulling Anderson in game four when he was totally shutting down the Pads did not help either, That plus the fact that the bullpen sucked most of the series was also a contributor. Freeman, Muncy and Trea were the only regulars who were hitting. JT had a bad series so did Will Smith. Taylor was 0-7. Bellinger had 1 hit, Thompson had 2. The vaunted Dodger power showed up only in game 2 against Darvish when they cracked 3 homers off of him by the third inning. Never scored again that entire game.
That lineup with the two rookies in it starting. I feel matches pretty well with all the other teams in the west division. Plus, the Dodgers have the best pitching in the division. I would predict 2023 Dodgers to win about 98 games. Teams saw that you don’t have to win 111 games to get to the world series. Its all about what teams are hot and play together. When we played the Padres. There was no fire in the guys eyes. All the momentum was in the Padres dugout.
Good summary of the CBT, Mark.
One thing I would point out is that high end free agents salaries are far outpacing the increase in CBT thresholds.
Stan Kasten has always talked about the importance of developing minor league players, part of the Atlanta playbook, to create a talent pool and keep costs down.
In today’s marketplace, it is no longer feasible to build a team through free agency. The costs and length of contracts may prove successful in the short term, but will eventually lead to lengthy periods of decline unless organizations have strong farm systems. Most don’t.
As the Dodgers look at 2024 and beyond they have only two major lengthy contracts on the books (Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman) so they have considerable flexibility moving forward.
They also have several players moving through the farm who can make an impact in ’23 and beyond.
A lot of writers and analysts believe they make a big play for Shohei Ohtani or maybe Juan Soto in ’24. Ohtani will be incredibly expensive, may be the biggest contract ever. Would the Dodgers commit that kind of money? Beyond just his ability to pitch and hit, Ohtani may open up another lucrative revenue stream for the Dodgers and that is the Japanese market. That may factor into their future plans.
So we’re back with Lux and Taylor in Centerfield. I thought you guys had Lux starting at shortstop. So that’s why I was wondering where he would play. Got it! I like that lineup to. The same nine guys for like what 160 games.
Sounds like we have plenty of hitters that are good. But which ones will start most of the games. It seems like the Dodgers never have a set nine guys that always play each day. Its always a different lineup. And, when the playoffs get here. Fans are like okay which nine guys is Roberts playing today. I like the years when you knew the nine guys that would start.
Yeager
Garvey
Lopes
Russell
Cey
Baker
Lacy
Smith
Those guys started and then you had guys on the bench that played sometimes. Now fans come to a game to see maybe the rookies play Outman and Vargas and on that day. Roberts puts in Taylor and Thompson to start. As a fan. You feel like dam. I spend all this money and get to see two bench players play. So, give me a starting lineup that would be your 2023 lineup most of the time. If Lux faulters at shortstop.
Very good article by the way. I think as a fan of the Dodgers. I would want Muncy and Vargas to play almost every day. So, if Lux faulters at short stop. And Rojas ends up starting at shortstop. What do they do with Lux? Then it sounds like he becomes a Chris Taylor yet younger who floats around an plays different positions. In spring training if Lux faulters. I do believe they will try to trade him and upgrade at shortstop. Then they can see how other shortstops are doing in spring training. And, maybe a team needs a second baseman. That’s what I think will happen with Lux. Or at least by the trade deadline.
Today is MLB International Signing Day:
According to Baseball America the Dodgers have thus far have signed:
Los Angeles Dodgers ($4,144,00)Pool money
Yoandry Vargas, SS, Dominican Republic
Arnaldo Lantigua, OF, Dominican Republic
Daniel Mielcarek, SS, Dominican Republic
Jesus Tillero, RHP, Venezuela
At 6-foot-3, the long and lean Vargas will face questions about his ability to stay at shortstop, but the Dominican Republic native already shows a quick first step, good hands and instincts for the position. He’ll stay in the middle of the infield for as long as he can, but his plus arm potential will serve him well if he transitions to third base in the future.
At the plate, Vargas shows an advanced approach with the ability to hit for average. One of the top hitters in the class, he hits line drives to all fields and shows home run potential with a mechanically sound swing. He is expected to show more raw power and rack up extra-base hits as he fills out his frame. Vargas trains with Raul “Banana” Valera, a member of MLB’s Trainer Partnership Program.
A power-hitting outfielder from the Dominican Republic, Lantigua is big and strong now, and more strength could be on the way. His ability to make consistent contact and hit for power emerged in recent years. If he continues to develop at a normal pace, he could turn into a middle-of-the order bat in the future because of his offensive prowess. Lantigua can be overly aggressive in the batter’s box and needs to be more patient at the plate, but he’s working on strike zone recognition and fine-tuning his approach.
Overall, he has a chance to stay in center field because of his speed and arm strength, but he also profiles as a right fielder for those reasons. He trains with Marino Sierra in the Dominican Republic.
The Astros’ SS Pena won games with his glove. I remember reading that he had the highest Defensive Runs Saved stat in league–and Rojas was close behind.
The “kids play” roster would have Lux at SS–and it could possibly have Vargas at 3B, Outman in CF and Busch in LF. Or maybe Busch plays 2B and Vargas is in LF, with Muncy shifting from 2B to 3B.
If the objective is to give all these guys some of that runway, Trayce could be the 4th outfielder and a late-inning defensive replacement. (I still like a Trayce/Vargas platoon, but Vargas needs the ABs.)
It’s puzzling to me that Busch, a multisport star in high school, still doesn’t seem to have a defined position. Second base seems most likely.
Great information Mark. I never really knew how the penalties worked out, but this explains it. I think the team will be fine. I think you put them position to position, they match up well with San Diego, more depth than the other three teams in the division, Freeman, Betts and Smith are clearly the class of the division at their positions. Soto needs a bounce back season to even compete with Betts in right. SD brought in Nelson Cruz to DH, but Martinez will be better. Freeman is the class of the division at first. Dodgers’ rotation is deeper than SD. SD’s bullpen has a slight edge. Smith is growing every year and is solid behind the plate too. He also calls a good game. As for the rest of the positions, we have little clue who will be where come opening day. Tatis is not available for the Padres for the first 20 games, and then he will no longer be the SS. That will belong to Bogaerts. Rumor is he is moving to center field. I wanted to expound on something I was unable to address in the last stream and it concerns defense.
There are some who post on this site that do not place much emphasis on defense. That is their opinion and that is fine. What I wanted to address is the fact that while fans might not see the value in defense, the Dodgers front office obviously does. One of the reasons they let Hanley Ramirez walk, his clubhouse cancer label notwithstanding, was simply because he was not an elite defender. His offense was great, but his glove was porous. For several seasons the team was not very good defensively and they wanted to change that. Since AF arrived, they have usually made trades out of need. If AF saw what he perceived as a weakness, he would trade to bolster that position. Chris Taylor was one of those guys, good glove, weak stick. But he blossomed after his initial season with the Dodgers. But, had he not learned to play the outfield, and stayed a SS only, he would not be a Dodger today. He and Kike picked up the team when multiple players went down.
Defense might not be your cup of tea, but it certainly matters when it comes to player trades and signings.